Evening Wrap: ASX 200 steadies as gold and tech resurgence continues, energy stocks fade on crude drop – STO, WDS hit

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 7.9 points higher, up 0.09%.

The ASX 200 inched higher as reports of a second round of US-Iran negotiations lifted early sentiment, though conviction remained thin and intraday gains of 0.5% faded to near-flat by the close. Easing oil prices gave the well-worn interest-rate-sensitive playbook another airing, with gold and technology stocks the standout beneficiaries as bond yields pulled back further.

In stock specific news:

• Nufarm (NUF) (+11.3%) — forecast a 17% lift in first-half underlying earnings and announced an additional $50 million cost-out program through to end of FY27

• Virgin Australia (VGN) (+7.2%) — reaffirmed FY26 earnings guidance, supported by 92% hedging on Brent crude and 71% on refining margins, with higher airfares and a 1% domestic capacity cut flagged for the June quarter

• Mesoblast (MSB) (+8.0%) — secured an exclusive worldwide licence to CAR platform technology to enhance its cell therapy pipeline

• Boss Energy (BOE) (-9.3%) — cut FY26 production guidance at its Honeymoon uranium operation due to heavy rainfall and commissioning delays

• Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) (-4.2%) — upsized its convertible bond offering to US$600 million

• Yancoal Australia (YAL) (-2.3%) — won the auction for an 80% stake in the Kestrel coking coal mine in Queensland for US$1.85 billion upfront, with a further US$550 million in contingent payments over five years

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 7.9 points higher at 8,978.7, 0.4% from its session high and just 0.1% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a respectable 172 to 111.

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+3.8%) was the session's clear standout. Easing oil prices fed through to lower inflation expectations and a further pullback in bond yields — and when yields fall, gold becomes more attractive as an asset that carries no income but also no duration risk.

COMEX gold futures settled at US$4,839/oz, having traded as high as US$4,895 earlier in the session, while silver futures touched US$81.19 before closing near-flat at US$79.49/oz.

Evolution Mining (EVN) (+9.6%) was the headline mover after posting a net cash position of $42 million, swinging from $362 million of debt in the prior quarter. Ramelius Resources (RMS) (+6.8%) and Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) (+6.9%) also surged. Northern Star Resources (NST) (+3.0%) held firm as well.

Information Technology (XIJ) (+2.4%) continued its recovery, tracking gains on the Nasdaq as falling bond yields lifted the present value of future earnings for high-growth technology stocks. Megaport (MP1) (+5.6%), WiseTech Global (WTC) (+3.6%), and TechnologyOne (TNE) (+2.9%) were among the stronger performers. Xero (XRO) (+2.6%) also gained.

Health Care (XHJ) (+0.9%) benefited from the same falling bond yield tailwind, with investors returning to a sector that had been heavily sold earlier in the crisis. Pro Medicus (PME) (+4.1%) and Ramsay Health Care (RHC) (+2.2%) both rose.

Real Estate (XPJ) (+0.7%) added modestly as the relative appeal of property trust income streams improved. Cromwell Property (CMW) (+2.6%) and Pexa Group (PXA) (+2.4%) were notable movers.

Defence stocks also caught a bid despite the continued ceasefire, with DroneShield (DRO) (+9.1%) and Electro Optic Systems (EOS) (+5.8%) both sharply higher.

Energy (XEJ) (-1.9%) was the weakest sector as Brent crude futures slipped 0.5% to US$94.35/bbl, unwinding some of the conflict premium built into oil and gas names. Viva Energy (VEA) (-4.5%), Santos (STO) (-2.9%), and Woodside Energy (WDS) (-2.4%) were all softer.

Boss Energy (BOE) (-9.3%) was the sector's sharpest faller after cutting production guidance at its Honeymoon uranium operation. Uranium names were broadly firmer elsewhere, though, with Paladin Energy (PDN) (+4.5%) and Bannerman Energy (BMN) (+4.2%) the best of several advancers.

Utilities (XUJ) (-1.6%) were sold as the risk-on rotation reduced appetite for defensive income plays. AGL Energy (AGL) (-1.7%) and Origin Energy (ORG) (-1.3%) both declined.

Consumer Staples (XSJ) (-0.7%) were similarly dumped in favour of higher-beta alternatives. Elders (ELD) (-1.6%), a2 Milk Company (A2M) (-1.0%), and Woolworths (WOW) (-0.9%) all edged lower.

Financials (XFJ) (-0.2%) finished marginally in the red despite early gains. The major banks were a drag — Westpac (WBC) (-1.9%) bore the steepest losses on generally negative broker responses to the bank's first-half FY26 trading update. Morgans downgraded its rating on the stock to Sell and cut its price target to $34.06 from $35.12. ANZ (ANZ) (-0.6%), National Australia Bank (NAB) (-0.4%), and Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (-0.2%) were also weaker.

Resources (XJR) (+0.3%) managed a slim positive finish. Iron ore futures on the SGX edged up 0.8% to US$104.30/t, with BHP (BHP) closing flat and Rio Tinto (RIO) (-0.3%) marginally lower.

Among base metals, Sandfire Resources (SFR) (+3.2%) gained on firmer copper, with COMEX copper futures up 0.2% to US$6.094/lb, and Metals X (MLX) (+3.1%) advanced on a 3.7% pop in the price of tin on the London Metals Exchange overnight.

Lithium stocks again failed to fully capitalise on a second consecutive day of strong spodumene pricing — Australian spodumene concentrate in China rose 2.4% to US$2,350/t — though Pmet Resources (PMT) (+3.7%), Develop Global (DVP) (+2.2%), and IGO (IGO) (+1.2%) were notable exceptions.

Rare earths were mixed despite NdPr prices in China rising 2.0% to 777,500 CNY/t, with Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) (+1.6%) firmer but Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (-6.8%) and Iluka Resources (ILU) (-1.5%) both lower.

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ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

What an emphatic showing of demand-side control! 💪💪💪

In today’s ChartWatch *LIVE* Webinar, I ran a poll to see how many viewers expected this scale of reversal in US markets.

It was about 100 to 1 in terms of “Nope, not me Carl… I’m going with a great big ‘duh’ on that one,” versus a single smarty pants, who voted the other way — either believing they were funny, or perhaps they clicked on the wrong button, or possibly, they happen to be Nostradamus reincarnate.

100%, I didn’t expect the almost wall of demand + panic buying + total lack of non-believer supply rally we’ve just witnessed. But that doesn’t mean I’m surprised by it — it’s happened too many times in the past for that!

For, as we so often say in situations like this here in ChartWatch: It is the nature of stocks to rise in a bull market. 🫒

And the technicals never confirmed it was a bear market. So, …

Not only was last night’s white-candle-with-close-at-session-high a clear demand-side showing, the gap between it and the previous candle demonstrates a violent upward-shift in demand-side intent, as much as it signals a supply-side complicit in allowing higher prices.

We did see above average volume — so, that means above average buyers and sellers. Consider first the elevated demand aspect and compare it with how motivated demand was in terms of price — it was FOMO in at almost any cost. Consider also, that FOMO didn’t appear to care how near we are to the major point of supply.

Elevated demand is usually a good thing for prices to rise.

Elevated supply is usually less so.

But consider here, that the supply in the system had next-to-no impact on price… All they did was let themselves get swept away — meaning that they’re now part of demand. Should this group decide they’ve jumped ship too early and want to get back in — then it simply builds on the prevailing excess demand.

So, we can say that Tuesday saw increased demand-side participation, as well as supply removal = ✅✅.

But, as noted above, we’re approaching ‘the big one’ — the dual all time-highs of 23722-24020.

Logic suggests we will see some candles indicative of supply-side control up there, so, black-bodied and or with upward pointing shadows. The bigger the supply-side candles, the greater the excess supply they flag.

But logic and markets don’t always live in the same place. 😜

Despite this, I have no choice but to respect the prevailing strong demand-side price action and take steps to increase my RP back towards FRP — hence my decision to officially move from 1/2RP to 2/3RP from tonight.

There’s no rush to get there — there never is — simply I’ll be more open to adding quality long-side risk where available. That doesn’t preclude exploring short-side options, either, but I must aim towards a more market-weighted risk position.

View

2/3RP (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣).

Key levels

23722-24020 is the next key zone of supply. Supply-side candles near / in that range are a warning sign that the present rally is faltering.

The short- and long-term trend ribbon combo (presently 21834-22413) is now the key zone of demand. A test and hold of that range would really confirm this newfound semblance of demand-side control. If the price closes back below this range, the supply-side is very likely back in control of the Comp's price.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Upward pointing shadows point to where there's excess supply in the system. ☝️

They point to excess supply that's waiting to take advantage of higher prices and liquidity to execute their sell orders in the most timely and cost-effective manner.

STR = Sell The Rally.

as opposed to:

BTD = Buy The Dip.

One of the above concepts is associated with a supply-side threatening to take control ⚠️. While the other is associated with a healthy demand-side market ✅.

I'll let you guess which is which, but as a hint: everything between the 23-Mar 8262 low and yesterday's candle signaled strong and consistent demand-side control. Versus we're now two candles with modest but pesky upward pointing shadows.

We can conclude that there lies in waiting, at least some motivated selling above 8987 — enough to ensure it's taking a little time and demand to shake.

My point is: there's more evidence before this week's candles to suggest the demand-side is capable of dislodging that supply than there is in those last two candles to suggest it can't.

The analysis, i.e., the first 'A' of our 3-A's approach, therefore suggests an open mind to adding risk. I accept (i.e., the second 'A') that — but I'd still prefer to have just one confirming candle the demand-side has cracked supply above 8987.

So, before I act (i.e., the third 'A') by increasing my ASX portfolio risk limit from 1/2RP to 2/3RP — let me just see one more demand-side candle here... 🧐

View

I'm going to run at 1/2RP for another day. I'll wait for one strong demand-side candle that closes above 8987 and further confirms 8889 as a trough above the moving averages before committing to a move to 1/3RP 🪣 (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is now 67%).

Key levels

9201, the all time high, is the key point of supply. Below it there likely remains a degree of trepidation among market participants.

Demand now moves back to the dynamic short- and long-term trend ribbons (presently 8663-8770). If the price closes back below this range, the supply-side is very likely back in control of the OTP's price.

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Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Thursday

• 11:30 AUS March employment data

  • Employment change: +0% forecast vs +% previous

  • Unemployment rate: 4.3% forecast vs 4.3% in February

• 12:00 CHN March "Data Dump"

  • New Home Prices: no forecast as yet, -0.28% in February

  • Fixed Asset Investment: +2.0% ytd/y forecast vs +1.8% ytd/y in February

  • GDP: +4.8% p.a. in March quarter forecast vs +4.5% p.a. in December quarter

  • Industrial Production: +5.3% p.a. forecast vs +6.3% p.a. in February

  • Retail Sales: +2.5% p.a. forecast vs +2.8% p.a. in February

  • Unemployment Rate: 5.2% forecast vs 5.3% in February

Friday

• No major economic data scheduled for release on this day

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +84.6% Immutep (IMM) – Immutep receives FDA ODD for Efti in Soft Tissue Sarcoma.

• +13.9% Echoiq (EIQ) – No news, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +11.3% Nufarm (NUF) – Trading Update.

• +10.4% Andean Silver (ASL) – No news, general strength across the broader Silver sector today.

• +10.1% Artrya (AYA) – Change of Director's Interest Notice (B. Ridgeway exercise of options $500,000), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.6% Evolution Mining (EVN) – March 2026 Quarterly Report and Exploration Update, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.3% Unico Silver (USL) – No news, general strength across the broader Silver sector today.

• +9.1% Droneshield (DRO) – No news, general strength across the broader Defence sector today.

• +8.9% Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.0% Mesoblast (MSB) – Clarity signs a Commercial Manufacturing Agreement.

• +7.2% Virgin Australia (VGN) – Market Update - April 2026.

• +7.0% Sun Silver (SS1) – Ausenco Engaged for Engineering Studies, general strength across the broader Silver sector today.

• +6.9% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +6.8% Ramelius Resources (RMS) – Gold Forum Europe - Zurich, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +6.7% Minerals 260 (MI6) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.8% Electro Optic Systems (EOS) – No news, general strength across the broader Defence sector today.

• +5.6% Megaport (MP1) – No news, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• +5.4% African Gold (A1G) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.1% Regis Resources (RRL) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +5.0% Genesis Minerals (GMD) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +4.5% Paladin Energy (PDN) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.2% Bannerman Energy (BMN) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -9.3% Boss Energy (BOE) – Honeymoon Update FY26 Production, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.8% Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) – Ceasing to be a substantial holder (JP Morgan, previously 5.2%).

• -5.0% WAM Leaders (WLE) – Geoff Wilson Appendix 3Y (G. Wilson on market sale of $3.77 million shares).

• -4.5% Viva Energy (VEA) – No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today.

• -4.4% Amplitude Energy (AEL) – No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today.

• -4.0% Temple & Webster (TPW) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.9% BetaShares Crude Oil ETF (OOO) – No news (long crude oil ETF).

• -3.0% BetaShares US EQY Strong Bear ETF (BBUS) – No news (short US stocks ETF).

• -2.9% Santos (STO) – No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today.

• -2.8% Beach Energy (BPT) – No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today.

• -2.5% New Hope Corp. (NHC) – New Convertible Notes Offering and Concurrent Repurchase, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today.

• -2.4% Ampol (ALD) – No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today.

• -2.4% Woodside Energy (WDS) – No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today.

• -2.4% Yancoal Australia (YAL) – Yancoal to acquire 80% interest in the Kestrel Coal Mine, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today.

Broker Moves

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $34.00 from $35.50

• Retained at lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $33.00

Abacus Storage King (ASK)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $1.59

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $53.00 from $49.00

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.45 from $2.55

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.30

Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

• Downgraded to underperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.00 from $6.25

• Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $7.39 from $7.03

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $117.00 from $120.00

• Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $120.00

Cuscal (CCL)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.45 from $5.10

Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $15.40 from $16.00

Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY)

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $3.00 from $3.30

• Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $3.10

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.35 from $3.40

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.95 from $3.11

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.70 from $2.80

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.20 from $3.50

Golden Horse Minerals (GHM)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.50

GWA Group (GWA)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.15

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.30 from $6.25

Ingenia Communities Group (INA)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.60

James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $41.10

The Koala Company (KOA)

• Initiated at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $5.13

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.10

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $20.50 from $18.50

Meteoric Resources NL (MEI)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.45 from $0.39

National Australia Bank (NAB)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $44.00 from $45.50

• Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $37.00

Polymetals Resources (POL)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.40 from $1.30

Qantas Airways (QAN)

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $10.74 from $12.90

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $11.55 from $13.05

• Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $11.25 from $12.70

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $10.30 from $10.50

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $11.00 from $11.30

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $11.00 from $12.50

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $10.50 from $12.80

Reece (REH)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $14.90

Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.50

SGH (SGH)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $50.40

St George Mining (SGQ)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.26 from $0.20

Sunstone Metals (STM)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.10

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $24.60

TPG Telecom (TPG)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.50

Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.60

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

• Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $38.20 from $38.40

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $34.92 from $34.88

• Retained at underweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $37.30 from $37.40

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $32.00 from $33.50

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $34.40

• Downgraded to sell from trim at Morgans; Price Target: $34.06 from $35.12

• Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $31.00

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.00

Scans