Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 within 0.2% of all-time highs, Oil back below US$100

ASX 200 futures are up 34 pts (+0.37%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks sharply higher, with the S&P 500 (+1.18%) now up 9.8% since 30-Mar and within 0.2% of all-time highs

• Tech stocks led the gains, with Mag-7 names including Nvidia, Alphabet and Tesla up 3-4%

• US-Iran ceasefire continues to hold, with Trump noting a second round of in-person talks to take place later this week, France and the UK have also announced a joint summit to pursue a defensive multilateral mission to reopen the Strait

• Relatively positive Q1 earnings from JPMorgan, Citigroup and BlackRock amid massive bounce back in investment banking fees, equities trading and funds under management

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Wed 15 Apr 26, 8:22am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	6,967	+1.18%
Dow Jones	48,536	+0.66%
NASDAQ Comp	23,639	+1.96%
Russell 2000	2,706	+1.32%
Country Indices
Canada	34,102	+0.66%
China	4,027	+0.95%
Germany	24,044	+1.27%
Hong Kong	25,872	+0.82%
India	76,848	-0.91%
Japan	57,877	+2.43%
United Kingdom	10,609	+0.25%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	4,844.54	+2.09%
Copper	6.08	+1.68%
WTI Oil	91.28	-7.87%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.7127	+0.02%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	74,304	-0.48%
Ethereum (AUD)	3,258	+2.53%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.256	-0.95%
VIX	18.36	-3.97%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gaps up, trends higher and closes near best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks gapped up, trended higher to finish near best levels

• S&P 500 now within 0.16% of its 27-Jan record close, Nasdaq 1.35% away from its 29-Oct-25 record

• Mag-7 names sharply higher, with Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Tesla all up 3-4%

• Brent down 2.7% to US$95.30 a barrel after the White House said it is considering further talks with Iran (CNBC)

• Citi joins other banks in upgrading US equities, favoring a quality/defensive tilt in global allocation (BBG)

• Japan 20-year bond auction draws strongest demand since 2019, yields extend drop (BBG)

• Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said the Iran war selloff lows are in, calling the correction a dip within an ongoing bull market, sees rotation back into pro-cyclical parts of the market as a signal that things will resolve constructively in the second half (BBG)

ENERGY

• Final oil tankers transiting the Strait before war's outbreak will reach refineries in coming days, risking physical shortages within weeks (FT)

• China cushioned from US naval blockade with 38m barrels of Iranian oil already on tankers in Asia (BBG)

• IEA warns demand destruction will spread due to rising prices and supply shortages from the Middle East conflict (BBG)

IRAN

• US naval blockade of Iranian ports entered its first full day. CENTCOM said no ships made it past the blockade in the first 24 hours, though several Iran-linked tankers transited the wider Strait of Hormuz between non-Iranian ports (CNBC)

• Saudi Arabia urges US to lift the Hormuz blockade, fearing Iran may close the Bab al-Mandeb route for Persian Gulf oil (WSJ)

• Trump said Iran has called and wants to work a deal. A second round of in-person talks could be held as early as this week, with Pakistan and Turkey both offering to host (NBC)

• Israel and Lebanon held their first direct talks in decades in Washington. Both sides agreed to hold further negotiations, but Israel refused to commit to a ceasefire in southern Lebanon (CNN)

• France and UK announced a joint online summit on 17 April for countries interested in a defensive multilateral mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (CNBC)

STOCKS

• JPMorgan Q1 FY26: Net income up 13% to $16.5bn, EPS $5.94 beat est $5.46 by ~9%. Investment banking fees up 28%, FICC revenue up 21%. Lowered full year NII guidance to around $103bn from $104.5bn, shares fell around 1% (CNBC)

• Citigroup Q1 FY26: Best quarterly revenue in a decade at $24.6bn, up 14% year-on-year. EPS $3.06 beat $2.65 ests by ~15%. Equities trading revenue surged 39%, shares up 2.6% (CNBC)

• Wells Fargo Q1 FY26: EPS $1.56 missed ests of $1.60, revenue of $21.4bn also missed $22bn ests. NII up 5% year on year but below forecasts, shares dipped 5.7% (CNBC)

• BlackRock Q1 FY26: Revenue up 27% year-on-year, AUM reached $13.9tn. Adjusted EPS and revenue both beat. CEO Larry Fink called it one of the strongest starts to a year in the firm's history, shares up 3% (YF)

• United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby pitched a possible merger with American Airlines to senior government officials including Trump. A combined airline would be the world's largest by seat capacity, though the deal faces major regulatory hurdles (BBG)

• BP reports an "exceptional" quarter for oil traders as the Iran war increases market volatility (FT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed rate cut expectations remain subdued. Bank of America estimates March core PCE will print around 3.5%, up from 3.0% in February, which should keep the Fed firmly on hold in the near term (CNBC)

• Fed's Miran says no evidence energy shock driving inflation expectations higher, sees inflation returning to target in a year (BBG)

• BOJ officials expected to significantly raise inflation forecast this month, primarily due to high oil prices (BBG)

• ECB's Rehn states that rising inflation from the Iran war doesn't automatically warrant an interest-rate hike (BBG)

• IMF said the BoJ expected to hike at a slightly faster pace than anticipated six months ago (RT)

ECONOMY

• US March PPI up 0.5% month-on-month, well below 1.1% ests. Core PPI rose just 0.1% vs 0.5% ests. Headline PPI at 4.0% year-on-year, the highest since February 2023. Energy drove the increase, with gasoline up 15.7% and diesel up 42% (CNBC)

• IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3%, warning the Middle East war could throw the world economy off course (RT)

• IMF raised its 2026 global inflation forecast to 4.4%, up 0.6 ppt from January, driven by higher energy and food costs from the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions (CNBC)

• China export growth slows to five-month low, imports rise at fastest pace since late 2021 though oil and gas purchases drop (RT)

• Australian consumer and business confidence slides amid Iran war concerns (RT)

ASX TODAY

• Yancoal enters deal to acquire 80% of Kestrel Coal Mine for upfront cash consideration of US$1.85bn, with up to $550m in contingent cash consideration (YAL)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• So the war is over? S&P 500 and Nasdaq now both within ~1% of all-time highs, having rallied 10-12% off 30-Mar lows. This marks the best 10-day gain since the pandemic. Perhaps markets know something we don't, or doing its thing as a forward looking price mechanism (remember how markets bottom 2-3 quarters before the economy does?). Anyway, very strong, risk-led overnight session where sectors like Discretionary and Tech traded sharply higher, yield-sensitive real estate also found some reprieve.

• Energy weak, risk on: S&P 500 Energy sector fell 2.1% overnight, Staples also slipped 0.2%. So a bit of an unwinding for those conflict-related beneficiaries. Will be interesting to see if these stocks can re-base at higher levels. Overnight ETF watchlist shows a strong bid for airlines (Global Jets ETF up 4.4%), fintech, biotech and gold miners also tracking higher. iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF surprisingly struggled, up just 0.99% in a relatively rangebound session.

BROKER MOVES

• Ingenia Communities upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target remains $4.60 (UBS)

• Lynas downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; though target up to $20.50 from $18.50 (Macquarie)

• Lynas downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight; though target up to $20.45 from $18.50 (Morgan Stanley)

• PLS Group downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight; target cut to $5.25 from $5.30 (Morgan Stanley)

• Whitehaven Coal upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight; though target lowered to $9.75 from $9.80 (Morgan Stanley)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 15 Apr: Cadence Capital (CDM) – $0.03, Cadence Opportunities Fund (CDO) – $0.075, Clover Corporation (CLV) – $0.01, WAM Leaders (WLE) – $0.048

• Thu 16 Apr: Acorn Capital Investment Fund (ACQ) – $0.035, WAM Income Maximiser (WMX) – $0.006, Whitefield Income (WHI) – $0.006

• Fri 17 Apr: None

• Mon 20 Apr: Washington H Soul Pattinson (SOL) – $0.48

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Cash Converters International (CCV), COG Financial Services (COG), Endeavour Group (EDV), Kina Securities (KSL), PRL Global (PRG), Qantas Airways (QAN), Ramelius Resources (RMS), Yancoal Australia (YAL)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

No major economic announcements.