ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 15th April

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, April 15. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

---

New updates

ASX 200 higher, but off best levels

[2:09 pm] ASX 200 on track for another session of giving back early gains – on Tuesday, the market finished 0.5% higher vs. highs of 1.07%, and today, up 0.11% vs. session highs of 0.50%.

Financials was again, the main drag on the index, with the S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index currently down 0.15% vs. session highs of 0.70%. This is perhaps some follow-through weakness from Westpac's preliminary 1H26 update, where the company flagged softer-than-expected earnings amid ongoing margin pressure.

It's hard to deny the market's recent strength and an argument could be made that the path of least resistance remains higher as US-Iran ceasefire/peace talks continue to hold. Plenty of analysts have flagged buying support from systematic strategies following heavy selling in March, along with contrarian bullish signals like VIX pullback, depressed sentiment and seasonality tailwinds. US earnings takeaways have been a little mixed, though numbers have been broadly ahead of consensus expectations. That said, markets have bounced in a V-shaped fashion, with the ASX 200 up 7.4% since 23 March, so a little overbought/extended.

---

Nufarm shares hit five-month high

[1:17 pm] A rather volatile open for Nufarm this morning, after the company provided a positive 1H26 trading update. The stock opened 12.1% higher ($2.48), rallied as much as 17.5% ($2.61) and now back around the open price.

• 1H26 adjusted EBITDA guided at $239-244m, up 16-19% vs. a year ago

  • Unclear if adjusted EBITDA figure is comparable to Macquarie (Nov-25) 1H26 ests of $251.7m

• Positive trading momentum continues across all regions, though the company is managing increases in the cost of active ingredients, freight, and energy

• Supply chains are currently operating largely normally despite broader disruption concerns

Taking a closer look at Macquarie's estimates, they expected 1H26 net debt to be $1.37 billion vs. the $1.23 billion (as at 31-Mar-26) announced today, so de-leveraging process is tracking ~10% ahead of ests.

"The reduction in net debt is predominantly from improved cash generation from lower capital expenditure requirements and disciplined working capital management, consistent with the company’s ongoing focus on de-leveraging," noted the company.

---

Yancoal's Kestrel Coal acquisition call highlights

[1:17 pm] Yancoal outlined the financial and operational details of its proposed Kestrel Coal Group acquisition on its earnings call, flagging manageable leverage and long mine life.

• Funding via a five-year USD-denominated syndicated loan at market-competitive terms

• Pro forma net debt to EBITDA of 0.9x to 1.1x with gearing of 15% to 18% post-acquisition, suggesting balance sheet remains relatively conservative

• Contingent cash consideration capped at $550m, only payable if annual benchmark coal prices exceed $225a tonne (nominal), providing downside protection for Yancoal if prices soften

• Kestrel expected to maintain production at ~6mtpa (100% basis) near term, with free cash flow of $124m in 2025. Future cost optimisation and production improvements to be assessed once Yancoal assumes operational control

• Mine life underpinned by 164mt of reserves supporting ~25 years of production, with approvals for Kestrel West targeted for the early 2030s

• Dividend policy and capital management approach to remain unchanged post-deal

---

National Storage REIT shareholders approve Brookfield-GIC takeover

[1:10 pm] NSR shareholders have overwhelmingly backed the proposed acquisition by a Brookfield and GIC consortium, clearing a key hurdle for the transaction. All five transaction resolutions were passed with strong support, with ~97.9% of votes cast in favour across the trust scheme, share scheme and unstapling resolutions.

The stock is expected to be suspended from trading on 21 April.

---

Kelly Partners CEO hit with margin calls as shares plunge

[1:09 pm] Brett Kelly has had over 7 million shares seized by lenders after margin calls triggered by a sharp decline in the company's stock price, according to the AFR.

• Kelly pledged ~34% of his stake (shares then worth ~$64m) as collateral for personal borrowings, with arrangements entered when shares traded between $7.79 and $13.60. Margin calls began in March as the stock fell to a low of $4.52

• Lenders still hold 4m shares as security, and Swiss private bank Julius Baer has registered a claim over assets held by Kelly's personal vehicle. Kelly declined to disclose borrowing amounts or loan-to-value thresholds

• The pledged stock represented ~16% of total shares on issue, raising concerns about forced selling pressure in an illiquid small-cap name. Kelly retains ~40% of the company and remains the largest shareholder

Company page: Kelly Partners (KPG)

---

Analysts' take on Qantas

[1:07 pm] Qantas' trading update flagged a clear near-term earnings headwind from sharply higher fuel costs tied to the Middle East conflict, though brokers broadly viewed management's response, including fare increases, capacity reallocation, capex trimming and a buyback pause, as sensible and disciplined. Pricing held up better than feared and the pressure was widely seen as cyclical rather than structural, but a timing mismatch between higher fuel costs and repricing benefits left H2 and early FY27 exposed.

• JPMorgan retained Overweight, lowered target from $10.50 to $10.30. Mitigation actions looked sensible and pricing power appeared stronger than feared, with the balance sheet still supportive of shareholder returns and the medium-term earnings view remaining constructive.

• Jarden retained Buy, lowered target from $12.70 to $11.25. The response looked prudent with repricing and capacity cuts showing discipline, though near-term profit pressure still looked heavy while the longer-term investment case remained appealing.

• Goldman Sachs retained Buy, lowered target from $13.05 to $11.55. The fuel shock created a meaningful earnings drag only partly softened by revenue actions, with more mitigation likely across early FY27 and valuation still implying material recovery potential.

---

Analysts' take on Westpac

[12:21 pm] Westpac's preliminary 1H26 update revealed softer-than-expected revenue, with pressure from weaker treasury and markets income, margin compression and NZ foreign exchange translation, partly offset by better cost control and steady balance sheet growth.

Brokers broadly viewed much of the revenue pressure as temporary, though a more cautious provisioning stance and stretched valuation kept sentiment restrained. Shares closed down 2.6% against a flat Financials index.

• Morgans downgraded to Sell from Trim, lowered target from $35.12 to $34.06. Revenue trends were softer than expected and provisioning turned more defensive, with valuation seen as running ahead of execution.

• JPMorgan retained Underweight, lowered target from $37.40 to $37.30. The treasury contribution was the main earnings drag and several pressures looked temporary, but valuation still appeared demanding despite the pullback.

---

Analysts' take on Cleanaway

[12:21 pm] Cleanaway's FY26 EBIT guidance downgrade on Tuesday, driven by higher fuel and logistics costs linked to the Middle East conflict and softer Contract Resources activity, came in below market expectations.

Brokers broadly viewed the cost pressures as temporary and timing-related rather than structural, with contractual recovery mechanisms expected to recoup much of the impact over time. Shares closed down 2.6% after being down as much as 4.5% earlier in the session.

• Morgans retained Buy, lowered target from $3.11 to $2.95. The guidance cut reflected fuel, activity and uncertainty headwinds, with fuel recovery expected through contract mechanisms and the upcoming strategy briefing viewed as a near-term catalyst.

• Jarden retained Buy, target unchanged at $3.10. Margin pressure was seen as likely hitting Solid Waste hardest, with the market having already anticipated much of the downgrade, though cash flow quality remained a core concern.

• RBC Capital Markets retained Outperform, lowered target from $3.50 to $3.20. The update was characterised as a clearing event with pressures linked directly to Middle East disruption, and the upcoming blueprint update seen as supportive of a better outlook.

---

ASX 200 higher, off best levels

[11:28 am] ASX 200 currently up 0.24%, off session highs of 0.50%. Energy (-2.1%) lower but off worst levels (-3.8%), Utilities also major constituents like Origin Energy (-2.0%) are also heavily reliant on LNG for earnings. Tech (+2.2%) up for a second consecutive session but still down 4.8% in the last five sessions. Healthcare (+0.8%) has managed to catch a bid, somewhat in-line with the strength of overnight barometers like the S&P Healthcare Sector (+0.5%) and iShares Biotech ETF (+2.1%).

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

---

Newmont pauses Cadia underground operations

[11:16 am] A magnitude 4.5 earthquake near Newmont's Cadia operation in NSW Central West has prompted a pause in underground mining while specialist teams undertake inspections and assessments.

All personnel were accounted for with no reported injuries, though any extended disruption to one of Australia's largest gold and copper mines would be material to near-term production.

---

The best and worst ASX 200 performers of the year so far

[11:08 am] A quick check in on what's topping the leaderboards so far this year. Commodities like gold, uranium, aluminium, rare earths and lithium (and of course, coal and energy) have all performed incredibly well. Meanwhile, tech names and reporting season losers like Cochlear and Harvey Norman have all dipped 30-40% YTD.

---

Gold stocks broadly higher

[10:36 am] The All Ords Gold Index is up 3.3% in early trade. Its now rallied 30% off the 23 March low but still 16% off its 2 March all-time high.

Gold prices rallied 2.0% overnight to US$4,840 an ounce.

---

Copper stocks extend gains

[10:31 am] Another solid session for most copper names, with Sandfire currently up 2.8%, following a 3.3% gain on Tuesday.

Copper prices are on a six-day win streak, up 9.0% to US$6.13/lb.

Copper daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

---

TechnologyOne: The only tech stock upgrading earnings on AI

[10:20 am] TechnologyOne is the only large cap Aussie tech stock to upgrade its revenue outlook thanks to AI.

On 18 February, the company upgraded its FY26 profit guidance from 16-18% to 18-20%, citing: “This increased guidance is not optimism – it is confidence in our customer pipeline in Australia, New Zealand and the UK. Driving this growth is the momentum of SaaS+, the response to Plus and our excitement in new AI products that will shortly be launched."

TechnologyOne has emerged as one of the best performing large cap tech names on a relative basis. While most peers like Car Group, Wisetech and Pro Medicus are still down 20-40% year-to-date, TechnologyOne has just returned to breakeven.

TechnologyOne (purple) vs. Car Group (yellow), Seek (red), Pro Medicus (blue) and Wisetech (green) | Source: TradingView

---

Top ASX 200 gainers

[10:09 am] Virgin is trading sharply higher off the back of its trading update, while growth-y names like Hub24, Zip and Paladin Energy also moving broadly higher.

---

Top ASX 200 losers

[10:09 am] Telix priced an upsized $600 million (vs. $500m prior) notes due 2031, with a conversion premium of 37.5% to the reference price of $14.22 per share. Meanwhile, Iran conflict beneficiaries like refiners, energy and coal names are trading broadly lower.

---

Quick question for readers

[10:05 am] We’re looking to better understand the investors who read the Market Index Live Blog each day. To do that, we’ll be running a quick daily poll – just one simple question – to learn more about how you invest, trade, and navigate the markets.

It’ll take a few seconds to answer, and over time it helps us shape the content and coverage that matters most to you.

---

Duratec JV awarded Defence contract

[9:46 am] Duratec's 50:50 joint venture with Ertech has secured a major contract for infrastructure upgrades at HMAS Stirling ahead of the arrival of AUKUS submarine rotational forces.

• The Duratec Ertech JV has been awarded a $281m main works contract for infrastructure upgrades at the Diamantina Wharf, Garden Island, Western Australia, with a delivery period of approximately 24 months

• Including early works ($9.2m) and long lead procurement ($5m) already underway since January 2026, the total contract value is just under $300m

• The project supports upgrades ahead of the arrival of US and UK submarine rotational forces under the AUKUS partnership, reinforcing Duratec's positioning on strategically important Defence infrastructure

Duratec shares are up 38% year-to-date and up 58% in the last twelve months, hovering around all-time highs.

Company page: Duratec (DUR)

---

Virgin flags $30-40m fuel headwind

[9:44 am] Strong demand and effective hedging allow Virgin Australia to absorb the Middle East-driven fuel spike, with fare and capacity levers deployed to protect margins.

• Fuel costs for 2H26 expected to increase by ~$30-40m vs. previous expectations, driven by jet fuel prices more than doubling since end of February.

• The exposure is limited to the unhedged portion, with the group 92% hedged on Brent crude and 71% on refining margins for the remainder of 2H26

• FY26 guidance unchanged, with 2H26 underlying EBIT and EBIT margin still expected to be higher year-on-year

• Passing through higher costs via fare increases and capacity adjustments. RASK growth guidance lifted to ~5% in 2H26 and 6% in 4Q26, up from prior guidance of 3-4%

  • This means Virgin is earning more revenue per available seat kilometre (so better yield from each seat they fly)

• Total domestic capacity trimmed to +1% in 2H26 and -1% in 4Q26

• Balance sheet remains strong with leverage at 0.8x net debt to underlying EBITDA (below the 1-2x target range) and $1.5bn in liquidity as at 31 March 2026

• For 1H27, the group is 93% hedged on Brent crude but only 15% on refining margins. Given ongoing volatility, FY27 capacity settings are under review

Qantas announced a similar update on Tuesday (higher fuel costs, hedged against Brent but not against crack spread, higher RASK but slightly lower capacity). The stock dipped as much as 3.7% in early trade, but managed to finish the session down just 0.3%.

Company page: Virgin Australia (VGN)

---

Evolution Mining Q3 production soft but cash generation strong

[9:35 am] Evolution's March quarter saw a slight miss on gold and copper production, but record cash flows at key assets and a robust balance sheet underpin the outlook.

• Gold production of 170koz vs. 173.9koz ests (2% miss)

• AISC of $2,220/oz vs. $1,996/oz ests (11% miss)

• Copper production of 11kt vs. 13kt ests (15% miss), driven by Ernest Henry at 4kt vs. 5.2kt ests after ongoing weather disruptions from the December 2025 event and further March quarter rainfall

• Record quarterly net mine cash flows at Mungari ($175m, up 68%) and Red Lake ($104m, up 30%), with group net mine cash flow of $486m

• Cash balance up 42% to $1.37bn with no debt repayments due until FY29 and total liquidity of ~$1.9bn. On track for ~$3.6bn of operating mine cash flow in FY26

• FY26 guidance maintained with gold production expected at the lower end but below original cost guidance. Copper production also likely at the low end due to Ernest Henry weather impacts

• Board approved new organic growth investments at Northparkes (E22 block cave) and Ernest Henry (Bert orebody), all on schedule and budget

Company page: Evolution Mining (EVN)

---

Boss Energy cuts Honeymoon FY26 production guidance on extended rain disruption

[9:31 am] Boss Energy has downgraded full-year production guidance for the second time this quarter after unexpected rainfall in March compounded earlier weather-related disruptions at its Honeymoon uranium operation.

• FY26 production guidance lowered to 1.40-1.45Mlbs U3O8 drummed, down 9-12% from the prior 1.60m lbs target

• Q3 production came in at 203k lbs, missing the 240-270k lbs guidance range due to lower tenors and rain-related access restrictions that limited reagent deliveries and infrastructure ramp-up

• Q4 production expected at 356-406k lbs, also below prior guidance of 490-520k lbs, as the baseline condition of access roads deteriorated further after unexpected March rainfall

• Cost guidance maintained at C1 $36-40/lb and AISC $60-64/lb, though both are now expected to come in at the upper end of the range, including fuel-related cost increases passed through by transport and air charter providers

Macquarie's FY26 production forecasts was sitting at 1.59Mlb, so today's downgrade represents a ~10.5% miss vs. expectations. Boss Energy shares have largely been trading sideways after suffering a 43% one-day selloff on 28 July, 2025. On this day, the company revealed that the uranium mineralisation at Honeymoon had less continuity and leachability than assumed in the original feasibility study, meaning higher costs, lower production and casting serious doubt on whether the mine could ever reach nameplate capacity.

Boss Energy (red) vs. Paladin (blue), NexGen (yellow) and Deep Yellow (green) | Company page: Boss Energy (BOE)

---

Nufarm guides to higher 1H26 EBITDA

[9:25 am] Nufarm expects a strong first half with positive momentum across all regions, while launching an additional cost savings program to offset rising input costs.

• 1H26 adjusted EBITDA guided at $239-244m, up 16-19% vs. a year ago

  • Unclear if adjusted EBITDA figure is comparable to Macquarie (Nov-25) 1H26 ests of $251.7m

• Positive trading momentum continues across all regions, though the company is managing increases in the cost of active ingredients, freight, and energy

• Supply chains are currently operating largely normally despite broader disruption concerns

• Nufarm is targeting an additional $50m in gross cost savings, with approximately $15m in cash implementation costs weighted towards FY27 and savings progressively phased to reach full run-rate by end of FY27

• At the FY25 result (19-Nov-25), Nufarm guided for moderating but continued crop protection growth (after 18% in FY25), a $30m EBITDA improvement from Omega-3 and Bioenergy platforms, and leverage falling to approximately 2.0x by end of FY26 (from 2.7x in FY25)

Company page: Nufarm (NUF)

---

Yancoal to acquire 80% stake in Kestrel Coal Mine

[9:13 am] Yancoal has agreed to acquire Australia's largest producing underground coal mine, significantly expanding its metallurgical coal exposure and Bowen Basin footprint.

• Yancoal to acquire an 80% interest in the Kestrel coal mine for up to US$2.4bn, comprising US$1.85bn in upfront cash and up to US$550m in contingent payments over five years linked to the Platts Premium Low Vol Hard Coking Coal index

• The upfront consideration will be funded through available cash and a $1.2bn five-year syndicated loan facility, with a separate $200m working capital facility in place

• Kestrel is the largest producing underground coal mine in Australia with 5.9Mt of saleable production in 2025, a 25-year mine life backed by 164Mt of marketable coal reserves and 406Mt of coal resources. Approximately 80% of output is metallurgical coal

• The deal lifts Yancoal's met coal share of production to 22% on a pro forma basis and strengthens its Queensland presence alongside the existing Middlemount and Yarrabee operations

• Completion is targeted for late Q3 2026, subject to regulatory approvals

Yancoal has been sitting on a massive cash pile for quite some time (A$2.1bn or ~US$1.5bn at 31-Dec-25). The company had a crack at Anglo American's Queensland met coal mines back in 2024 but failed.

Also, Kestrel was previously owned by Rio Tinto. In 2018, Rio announced the sale of its 80% interest to a consortium comprising EMR Capital and PT Adaro Energy for US$2.25 billion.

Company page: Yancoal (YAL)

---

Markets shrug off geopolitical noise as systematic flows and earnings dominate

[8:59 am] Alright last post about US markets. In a nutshell, equities continue to grind higher off the back of large mechanical buying flows, strong early earnings results, and renewed mega-deal activity.

• Markets are largely looking through headline risks around the Iran conflict, including the nuclear impasse, the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi concerns over a potential Houthi Red Sea closure, and fears that physical energy shortages could be weeks away. The ceasefire is holding and another round of negotiations is reportedly being explored

• Systematic flows remain the key near-term tailwind. Goldman Sachs estimates CTAs will buy $43.5bn in a flat tape over the next week, while Morgan Stanley flags roughly $100bn of potential buying from CTAs, vol target funds, and risk parity funds over the next month with leverage sitting in the 26th percentile

• Q1 earnings season is off to a strong start with all notable early reporters beating expectations. Analysts expect upside to the current +12.6% S&P 500 earnings growth estimate, supported by positive guidance trends, an elevated beat rate, a weaker dollar, nominal GDP strength, ISM above 50, and OBBBA tailwinds

• M&A activity continues to accelerate. Amazon is acquiring Globalstar for $11.5bn, United Airlines' CEO reportedly floated a merger with American Airlines, and Q1 saw a record 22 megadeals each valued at $10bn or more

• AI compute demand remains a major theme. Bloom Energy will deploy up to 2.8 GW to support Oracle's AI and cloud buildout, adding to last week's disclosures including Amazon's $15bn AWS AI run rate and the expanded $21bn Meta and CoreWeave AI infrastructure agreement

---

March PPI comes in well below expectations

[8:56 am] US producer prices rose less than forecast across both headline and core measures, though surging energy costs tied to the Iran conflict drove the strongest goods inflation in over a year.

• Core PPI up 0.1% month-on-month vs. 0.5% ests, year-on-year core at 3.8% vs. 4.0% ests, unchanged vs. February

• Headline PPI up 0.5% month-on-month vs. 1.1% ests, year-on-year headline at 4.0% vs. 4.6% ests, the highest since Feb-23

• The miss was broad-based but goods inflation ran hot, up 1.6% month-on-month (the largest rise since Aug-23), driven by an 8.5% energy surge tied to the Iran conflict. Fresh and dry vegetables fell 10.7%, partially offsetting the goods spike

• Services prices were flat in March after February's 0.3% rise, with small gains in transportation and storage offset by falling retail margins

---

Big bank earnings paint a mixed picture as trading desks shine

[8:55 am] US bank giants (and BlackRock) kicked off Q1 reporting season with strong trading results but diverging outlooks on net interest income and loan demand.

• JPMorgan Q1: Net income up 13% to $16.5bn, EPS of $5.94 vs. $5.46 ests (9% beat). Investment banking fees up 28% and FICC revenue up 21%, but full-year NII guidance cut to ~$103bn from $104.5bn, sending shares down ~1%

• Citigroup Q1: Revenue of $24.6bn, up 14% year-on-year, its best quarterly top line in a decade. EPS of $3.06 vs. $2.65 ests (15% beat). Equities trading revenue surged 39%, shares up 2.6%

• Wells Fargo Q1: EPS of $1.56 vs. $1.60 ests (3% miss), revenue of $21.4bn vs. $22bn ests (3% miss). NII rose 5% year-on-year but still fell short of forecasts, shares dropped 5.7%

• BlackRock Q1: Revenue up 27% year-on-year with AUM hitting a record $13.9tn. Adjusted EPS and revenue both beat ests, with CEO Larry Fink calling it one of the strongest starts in the firm's history, shares up 3%

And here are some interesting quotes/commentary from management:

• JPMorgan CEO: "The US economy remained resilient in the quarter, with consumers still earning and spending and businesses still healthy."

• Citi: "We’re off to an exceptionally strong start in 2026, with revenue up 14% and net income growing 42%."

• Wells Fargo: “While markets have been volatile, we still see continued resiliency in the underlying economy and the financial health of the consumers and businesses we serve remains strong, though the impact of higher oil prices will likely take some time to materialise."

• BlackRock CEO: "BlackRock delivered one of the strongest starts to a year in our history. Clients awarded us with $130 billion of net inflows in the first quarter, driving 8% organic base fee growth — our highest first quarter in five years."

• BlackRock CEO: "iShares posted record first quarter net inflows of $132 billion and doubled net new base fees compared to a year ago, as clients rotated to our international and precision exposures."

---

US and Iran weigh ceasefire extension as naval blockade intensifies

[8:45 am] Diplomatic efforts continue as both sides explore another round of talks before the current truce expires next week.

• The US and Iran are weighing negotiations to extend a two-week ceasefire, with discussions potentially returning to Pakistan before the April 7 deadline. Iran is reportedly considering a short-term pause to Strait of Hormuz shipments to avoid provoking the US and derailing talks

• Washington is using a naval blockade of Iranian ports as leverage to extract larger concessions, though fighting continues in Lebanon where Israel maintains its campaign against Hezbollah

• News of potential talks lifted equities globally, with the Nasdaq 100 set for its longest winning streak since 2021 at nine consecutive sessions

---

IEA says Gulf oil producers could restore half of output within two weeks

[8:44 am] The International Energy Agency outlined a phased recovery timeline for Middle Eastern oil production once Strait of Hormuz transits resume.

• Around 8.9 million barrels per day of output from Gulf OPEC+ members was shut in during March, with April shutdowns expected to exceed 9 million barrels per day

• The IEA estimates 50% of shut-in production could return to prewar levels within two weeks of shipping resuming, rising to 80% over the following month

• The final 20% would be harder to restore due to reduced field pressure and other operational constraints

• Logistics are a key bottleneck, as tankers must first clear existing cargoes from the Gulf before new loading programmes can begin, requiring available port storage and mobilisation of labour and contractors

---

S&P 500 correction "masking" deeper pullback beneath the surface

[8:42 am] Morgan Stanley strategists say resilient earnings are shielding the index from steeper falls, but broader measures reveal a more advanced correction.

• S&P 500 earnings multiples have dropped 18% from their October peak, and over half of Russell 3000 stocks are down at least 20%, suggesting the correction is more severe than the headline index implies

• Wall Street analysts still expect 12% earnings growth for S&P 500 companies in Q1, with reporting season kicking off this week

• Morgan Stanley describes the current pullback as the "final phase" of a correction, noting risks from private credit and AI disruption have largely been priced in

• The team favours cyclicals (financials, industrials, consumer discretionary) on strong earnings and compressed valuations, alongside quality AI cloud names where sentiment has reset

• Strategists caution a re-test of lows is possible if bond yields or volatility spike again, and recommend investors be ready to add risk into weakness

Source: Bloomberg

---

Citi upgrades US equities to overweight on quality and defensive tilt

[8:41 am] Citi strategists join BlackRock and Morgan Stanley in turning more constructive on US stocks, though visibility remains limited amid elevated geopolitical risk.

• Citi upgraded US equities to overweight from neutral, favouring higher-quality and defensive names given ongoing war uncertainty. The call is described as "tactical" given limited forward visibility

• S&P 500 year-end target set at 7,700, implying roughly 12% upside from Monday's close. The index has now erased its Iran war-related losses, supported by a temporary US-Iran ceasefire and early earnings season optimism

• Emerging markets downgraded to neutral from overweight on vulnerability to energy shocks and a stronger US dollar

• At the sector level, global materials upgraded to overweight while communication services downgraded to underweight. Citi also flagged the tech sector's growing share of global earnings as a complicating factor for the broader equity outlook

• Citi cautioned that even with an eventual US-Iran peace deal, a return to "goldilocks" macro conditions and pro-cyclical trading is unlikely to come easily

Source: Bloomberg

---

BofA Global Fund Manager Survey: Sentiment sours but soft landing still base case

[8:39 am] Money managers turn notably more bearish in April, though medium-term positioning suggests investors are bracing for volatility rather than a downturn. Lots of interesting moves this month, including:

• FMS sentiment index down 1.9 points month-on-month to 3.7, the most bearish reading since Jun-25

• Growth expectations collapsed from +7% to -36%, the largest single-month decline since Mar-22, while inflation expectations hit their highest level since May-21

• Cash levels held at 4.3%, the highest since May-25

• Despite the bearish tilt, 70% of managers still see a recession as unlikely, 52% retain a soft landing as their base case, and 58% expect Fed rate cuts this year (vs. just 10% expecting hikes)

• Global equity allocations fell 24 ppt month-on-month to a net 13% overweight, the lowest since Jul-25

• US equities moved to a net 10% underweight, a slight improvement from the net 17% underweight last month

• Geopolitical conflict is now the top tail risk at 44% (up 30 percentage points over two months)

• Long oil and long semiconductors replaced long gold as the most crowded trade at 24%, while US shadow banking (private credit) remains the most likely source of a systemic event for the ninth straight month

---

S&P 500 within an arms reach of all-time highs

[8:35 am] Another very strong session for US markets, with the S&P 500 up 1.18% and within 0.2% of its 27-Jan record close.

The S&P 500 is now up 9.8% since the 30-March low, which also marks the strongest 10-day move since coming off pandemic lows.

S&P 500 price chart (Source: TradingView)

---

Good morning!

[8:24 am] ASX 200 futures are up 34 pts (+0.37%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks sharply higher, with the S&P 500 (+1.18%) now up 9.8% since 30-Mar and within 0.2% of all-time highs

• Tech stocks led the gains, with Mag-7 names including Nvidia, Alphabet and Tesla up 3-4%

• US-Iran ceasefire continues to hold, with Trump noting a second round of in-person talks to take place later this week, France and the UK have also announced a joint summit to pursue a defensive multilateral mission to reopen the Strait

• Relatively positive Q1 earnings from JPMorgan, Citigroup and BlackRock amid massive bounce back in investment banking fees, equities trading and funds under management