Evening Wrap: ASX 200 gains as tech stocks rebound, CSL and PME dips keep dipping in healthcare

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 26.3 points higher, up 0.31%.

The ASX 200 rose for a second day as easing oil prices and a softer tone in bond yields helped investors look past the immediate volatility in the Middle East. Attention also shifted toward the US Federal Reserve, with rate-sensitive growth and property names leading a broad rebound across 10 of the 11 major sectors.

In stock specific news:

• Sims (SGM) (+9.9%) — surged after forecasting full-year underlying EBIT of $350 million to $400 million, well above market expectations.

• Electro Optic Systems (EOS) (+9.0%) — rebounded sharply after Tuesday’s heavy sell-off tied to planned management share sales.

• Humm Group (HUM) (+6.1%) — rallied after the Takeovers Panel found unacceptable circumstances relating to company statements around the Credit Corp proposal.

• CSL (CSL) (-2.2%) — fell after CSL Seqirus entered a long-term influenza supply agreement in Latin America that failed to excite investors.

• ARN Media (A1N) (-1.5%) — slipped after terminating its contract with Kyle Sandilands and Quasar Media Services.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 26.3 points higher at 8,640.6, 0.45% from its session low and just 0.16% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a healthy 192 to 89.

Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.6%) led the market as easing bond yields improved the appeal of long-duration growth stocks after the RBA’s split hike was interpreted as relatively dovish. Lower discount rates tend to support high P/E valuation multiples, helping Nextdc (NXT) (+3.6%), Life360 (360) (+2.9%) and Xero (XRO) (+2.3%) to tidy gains.

Utilities (XUJ) (+0.9%) and Real Estate (XPJ) (+0.9%) benefited from the same move lower in local risk-free yields, with investors rotating back into bond-proxy sectors. APA Group (APA) (+1.5%) and AGL Energy (AGL) (+1.2%) were notable in utilities. Goodman Group (GMG) (+2.1%) led the real estate rebound.

Australian 10-year Government Bond yield chart

Energy (XEJ) (+0.7%) remained firm despite a modest pullback in crude oil prices, helped by firmer coal prices and continued geopolitical supply risk. New Hope Corporation (NHC) (+5.9%), Viva Energy (VEA) (+3.9%) and Ampol (ALD) (+2.4%) led the sector higher.

Health Care (XHJ) (-0.7%) was the only major sector to finish lower, with three of its biggest constituents dragging despite the broader market’s positive tone. CSL (CSL) (-2.2%) and Pro Medicus (PME) (-2.2%) were the main drags, while Cochlear (COH) (-0.7%) also weakened. Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) (+5.9%) was a notable exception, however.

As CSL goes... so too does the XHJ! Wow, the trend really is your friend (i.e., if you choose not to fight it = if you've owned CSL at any point the long term trend ribbon was pink! 📉)

In commodities, Brent crude eased in Asian and offshore trade, trading around US$101/bbl as Iraq moved to resume exports via Turkey and supply fears cooled. Precious metals prices were largely unchanged, iron ore was a touch softer in Singapore, and lithium prices were also moderately weaker in China.

That still allowed selective rebound buying in commodity names such as Northern Star Resources (NST) (+1.4%), and Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (+1.8%). Fortescue (FMG) (-1.3%), Mineral Resources (MIN) (-1.6%) and PLS Group (PLS) (-1.7%) were each lower.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

Largely ditto Tuesday’s candle versus Monday’s candle. Tentative demand-side action… modest supply getting in their way. The result (across both candles) is small white bodies and slightly longer upward pointing shadows = not a great deal of confidence from either side of the market to really engage.

Indeed, there’s no definitive evidence yet that the demand-side has regained control over the Comp’s price. Just as it’s far from definitive that the supply-side have the motivation and size to do very much more than what they’ve achieved so far — which is simply to probe the long term trend ribbon.

And so, we grind — and grind in a glacial short term downtrend that appears to be countered sufficiently for now by the still-credible dynamic demand zone of the long term trend ribbon.

We’d love a decisive candle, accompanied by some decisive volume — either way. I don’t think we collectively really care about which way, just that we’re put out of this death by a thousand trendless cuts misery!

Big up — wonderful, bring it on… bull markets are fantastic environments to allocate risk.

Big down — brilliant, we’ll build on existing short exposure and let the portfolio risk tail off from the prevailing 1/2RP to 1/3RP setting. Bear markets can also be excellent arenas to book trend trading profits.

Please just give us some kind of trend we can trade! 🙏

View

1/2RP still feels valid with respect to my US portfolio risk limit (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks — how full I can fill my US "Risk Bucket" if you prefer. 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣).

Key levels

21898 is the critical zone of demand — a close below it implies the long term uptrend is likely under significant pressure (over!?) = ⚠️. The short term downtrend ribbon (presently 22650-22784) is the nearest critical zone of point supply, and 22907-23170-23321 aren't far beyond that.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Decent. White-bodied. Close very near the session’s high. ✅

Most day’s we’d be happy with those candle outcomes for the ASX 200 (aka, the Old Tin Pot).

But we’re not really in a “most days” kind of scenario, are we?

That went out the day of 3-Mar, the day after the OTP set a new all time high of 9201 — and then proceeded to plunge 750 points! 🤦

Nope, these days I must see something fare more significant in terms of emphatic demand-side control to really be convinced it’s worth adding some risk back to this market.

That is, from my present “sitting on the fence 50% invested versus 50% cash position”.

There are pros and cons of being delicately poised on the proverbial risk fence:

Pro: we’re perfectly positioned to move either way with the market’s next big push.

Con: with one leg straddled either side of the risk fence, those pickets are digging into the old nether regions and making life a little uncomfortable! 😉

Similar to the Comp’s analysis — I’ll happily take a big, decisive move either way. I don’t care which way — just bring it on! 💪

If it’s an up-move, I’d like to see a long, white-bodied candle with a close near its session high reaching deep into the long term uptrend ribbon… ideally, a follow candle would next appear that nullifies the latent supply of the short term downtrend ribbon, too.

For the down move, and this one’s likely still the MOTN (More Often Than Not) proposition — a long, black-bodied candle that closes at least below 8547 and very close to 8457 — if even, beyond it.

The bigger the volume supporting either move — the more decisive it will be = size + motivation + destruction of the opposing side’s position.

And so (shifting uncomfortably and adjusting my slacks), I continue to sit on the risk fence… awaiting the OTP’s next move! 🕰️

View

1/2RP, logically, still feels like the right place for me to be 🪣 (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 50%).

Key levels

8383-8457 is the closest zone of demand (static). Beyond it — the bear market awaits...⚠️🚨 The ASX 200 must at least close back above the short- and long term uptrend ribbons (presently 8802-8835 and 8672-8772 respectively) to reclaim any semblance of demand-side control.

**NEW VIDEO DROPPED — HOW TO SHORT THE ASX 200! 📺**

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Thursday

• 05:00 USA Federal Reserve Funds Rate, Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) Economic Projections & Statement of Monetary Policy (no change at 3.75% forecast)

• 05:30 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell press conference

• 11:30 AUS February Employment

  • Change: +20,300 forecast vs +17,800 in January

  • Unemployment rate: unchanged at 4.1%

• Tentative: JPN Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy rate (no change at <0.75% forecast)

• 23:00 UK Bank of England (BOE) Official Bank Rate Announcement & Monetary Policy Summary (no change at 3.75% forecast)

Friday

• 00:15 EUR European Central Bank Main Financing Rate Announcement & Statement of Monetary Policy (no change at 2.15% forecast)

• 12:00 CHN Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) Long Prime Rate Announcement

• 1-year Loan Prime Rate: no change at 3.0% forecast

• 5-year Loan Prime Rate: no change at 3.5% forecast

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +10.5% Weebit Nano (WBT) – No news, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• +10.4% Droneshield (DRO) – No news, general strength across the broader Defence sector today.

• +9.9% Sims (SGM) – Trading Update, bounced perfectly from long term uptrend ribbon! 🔎📈

• +9.0% Electro Optic Systems (EOS) – No news, rebounded after yesterday's sharp sell-off due to Share Options Exercised and Planned Divestment of Shares, general strength across the broader Defence sector today.

• +6.4% Web Travel Group (WEB) – Becoming a substantial holder (UBS +5.2%).

• +6.3% Dateline Resources (DTR) – Continued positive response to 17-Mar Music Valley Survey Complete as Exploration Advances, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.9% Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) – Becoming a substantial holder (Citigroup Global Markets +5.1%).

• +5.9% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) – No news, rebounded after yesterday's sharp sell-off due to Co-PSMA data presented.

• +5.8% New Hope Corp. (NHC) – No news, rebounded after yesterday's sharp sell-off due to Half Year Results Presentation. Upgraded to hold from sell at Bell Potter and to neutral from underperform at Macquarie, plus several price target increases (see Broker Moves). General strength across the broader Energy sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.4% Digico Infrastructure Reit (DGT) – No news, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• +5.0% Tasmea (TEA) – Tasmea EGM Results of Meeting.

• +5.0% 4DMedical (4DX) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.6% Austal (ASB) – No news, general strength across the broader Defence sector today.

Trading lower

• -7.0% Ausgold (AUC) – Ceasing to be a substantial holder (JP Morgan Chase Co. last update was +7.0%).

• -6.9% Brightstar Resources (BTR) – Excellent Drilling Results Continue at Sandstone and Investor Presentation.

• -6.5% Elevra Lithium (ELV) – Elevra files NI 43-101 Technical Report for NAL Expansion.

• -6.5% EQ Resources (EQR) – Investor Presentation - Euroz Hartleys Conference.

• -6.4% Unico Silver (USL) – No news since 17-Mar Joaquin MRE increases to 167 Moz AgEq.

• -5.6% Meeka Metals (MEK) – No news since 17-Mar Processing Upgrade to 800ktpa Underway.

• -5.5% Benz Mining Corp. (BNZ) – January 2026 Financial and Management Reports.

• -4.7% Iperionx (IPX) – Continued negative response to 16-Mar Response to ASX Price Query.

• -4.6% Alpha HPA (A4N) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

AML3D (AL3)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.40

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $38.14 from $40.56

BWP Trust (BWP)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.89 from $4.17

Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.40

Generation Development Group (GDG)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.00 from $7.50

Gorilla Gold Mines (GG8)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.00

Helloworld Travel (HLO)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.80

ImpediMed (IPD)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.05 from $0.12

James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $42.60

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $32.50 from $35.00

New Hope Corporation (NHC)

• Upgraded to hold from sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.10

• Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.50 from $3.10

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $4.80 from $4.40

• Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.80 from $4.40

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $5.00

Orica (ORI)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $25.35 from $28.00

Pointsbet Holdings (PBH)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.05

Premier Investments (PMV)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $16.70

Perseus Mining (PRU)

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.80 from $6.50

Region Group (RGN)

• Upgraded to buy from sell at UBS; Price Target: $2.40 from $2.20

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Downgraded to sell from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $3.50 from $4.10

Serko (SKO)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.85

Turaco Gold (TCG)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.45

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.10

Titan Minerals (TTM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.95

Xero (XRO)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $144.80

Scans