Five ASX gold stocks UBS thinks are undervalued right now
UBS initiates Buy ratings on five ASX gold stocks, with price targets implying 16% to 120% upside and a US$5,200/oz gold forecast for CY26.
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Mentioned
KEY POINTS
- UBS has initiated Buy ratings on Pantoro, Westgold, Minerals 260, Catalyst Metals and Ora Banda, with price targets implying 16% to 120% upside and production growth CAGRs of 8% to 22% through FY30.
- Pantoro is UBS's top pick among the five, with a $7.50 price target driven by Norseman's high-grade ramp to 200,000 ounces per annum, net cash position and active buybacks.
- UBS forecasts gold at an average of US$5,200 per ounce in CY26, with risks skewed to the upside on geopolitical uncertainty, trade tensions and de-dollarisation trends.
UBS has expanded its ASX gold coverage with new ratings on five mid-cap and emerging producers, citing a combination of production growth, cost discipline and a gold price outlook that remains tilted to the upside.
The coverage takes the investment bank's total ASX gold coverage to 14 stocks. All five carry Buy ratings, with price targets implying upside ranging from 16% to 120% as of 16 March.
Price targets and upside at a glance
Pantoro Gold (ASX: PNR): $7.50 price target, 120% upside
Minerals 260 (ASX: MI6): $1.20 price target, 88% upside
Catalyst Metals (ASX: CYL): $11.25 price target, 83% upside
Westgold Resources (ASX: WGX): $10.25 price target, 72% upside
Ora Banda Mining (ASX: OBM): $1.60 price target, 16% upside
Upside based on 16 March 2026 close
UBS's order of preference is Pantoro, followed by Westgold, Minerals 260, Catalyst and Ora Banda.
Pantoro is the top pick among new initiations
Pantoro is UBS's preferred name among the five, with the Norseman project advancing toward a production target of 200,000 ounces per annum by 2030. The company is already in a net cash position and has buybacks underway, which UBS views as a differentiator among the emerging producers.
As for the other picks:
Catalyst Metals offers what UBS describes as low-capex, grade-driven production growth, with average free cash flow yields of 16% through to FY30.
Westgold is targeting 470,000 ounces by FY28, a growth trajectory UBS considers conservative, with further cost efficiencies achievable.
Ora Banda is the most modest in terms of implied upside, though UBS notes a pathway to over 200,000 ounces per annum by FY29, with capital returns potentially on the table by FY27.
Minerals 260 sits in a different category as a developer, advancing the 4.5 million ounce Bullabulling project with cornerstone funding in place and engineering, geological and permitting catalysts ahead.
Production growth across the board
Across the five names, UBS estimates production volume compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) to FY30 of between 8% and 22%. That growth is expected to come from a mix of better utilisation, higher throughputs and improved grades, often working in combination.
In terms of relative positioning:
In the sub-$3 billion market cap bracket, Pantoro is UBS's top pick among producers, followed by Catalyst Metals and Ora Banda, which the broker notes have already had a meaningful run.
Minerals 260 offers a different risk profile as a development-stage option.
Gold price backdrop remains supportive
UBS expects gold prices to average US$5,200 per ounce for 2026 before the rally fades. The long-term real price assumption sits at US$3,250.
The investment bank argues risks remain skewed to the upside, with gold continuing to benefit from a shift out of US-dollar assets. Interest from both institutional and retail investors has been elevated, and buying demand has so far more than offset profit-taking.
The key drivers cited by UBS include uncertainty around the Middle East conflict, ongoing trade tensions, a subdued outlook for global growth, de-dollarisation trends and gold's role as an alternative in periods of currency instability.
