Evening Wrap: ASX 200 firms on tech rebound, WTC, TNE and 360 best – as small-cap lithium and critical minerals stocks soar

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 40.0 points higher, up 0.47%.

A strong rebound in Information Technology and banking stocks helped the ASX 200 to a strong end to the week. Wisetech Global (WTC) (+3.1%), Technology One (TNE) (+2.6%), and Life360 (360) (+2.5%) spearheaded gains in tech, while Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (+1.8%) flexed its muscles among the big banks.

Small lithium and critical minerals stocks were rampant, as investor appetite for stocks focussed on the energy transition continued to build. Elsewhere, uranium stocks had a rocket under them – after their utter wipeout yesterday. What gives? 🤔

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 40.0 points higher at 8,628.2, 0.47% from its session low and 0.22% from its high. Despite only a modest gain in the benchmark index today – in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a resounding 196 to 76.

For the week, the XJO finished down 69 points or 0.79% lower, 0.95% from its intraweek low and 0.80% from its intraweek high.

Fund flows: Flip the script! 🙃

You have to love our ASX 200... a.k.a The Old Tin Pot! 🤦

How about we have a day – as in, just one day – when the funds don't play silly buggers – and either just buy the lot or sell the lot!?

As you know, the back-half of 2025 has been all about the rotation form high P/E long duration sectors into low P/E short duration sectors. Basically, it's either been Resources up vs Tech, Discretionary, Telco's and Healthcare down (most of the time), or vice versa (on the odd occasion when the rubber band snaps back!).

That's today: a solid – and can I say credible based on yesterday's and today's strong demand-side candles 🕯️🕯️✅ – bounce in Information Technology (XIJ) (+2.2%). It today's clear stand out – likely on a rally in US tech stocks – but there were also decent performances from Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+0.8%) and Health Care (XHJ) (+0.7%).

Naturally, if those sectors are up, then yep – you can just about bet that Resources (XJR) (-0.6%) are down. Modest pullback though, and off session lows – so I'm not reading too much into it.

The kicker for the OTP today – and the continuing dark horse with respect to whether Santa pays us a visit this year – is Financials (XFJ) (+1.1%). Let's say the likes of Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (+1.8%) and Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC) (+1.3%) are "lurking"... and as the big banks go – so does the Old Tin Pot!

Notably, Energy (XEJ) (+0.1%), Communication Services (XTJ) (-0.3%), and Consumer Staples (XSJ) (-0.6%) were still lousy... on a good day – which speaks volumes about what the big fund managers think of them! 🚨⚠️

Stock Specific: U-shaped recovery?

As you'll see when you get down the the Interesting Moves section, it's chockers with uranium stocks. Big, double-digit percentage turnaround in some cases, lead by Lotus Resources (LOT) (+18.8%) and Bannerman Energy (BMN) (+16.9%).

I couldn't find anything on the newswires that could explain it, and US U-stocks were only modestly higher overnight. The best I could see was Elevate Uranium Ltd (EL8) going into a trading halt due to an impending "material acquisition". No doubt I'm missing something! 🤔

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Today’s little demand-side showing is probably not all that surprising after 2 days of buy the dip downward pointing shadows. Granted those shadows were only small, but in the thin market we’re in, it won’t take much excess demand or excess supply to move the price appreciably.

8562 seems to be holding – and hold it must do – if we are to retain a sniff of a Santa Claus Rally!

But where could such a rally take us? 🤔

8702 is the first point of supply to contend with, then it’s the old bastion of demand at 8731-38 – it will likely offer at least some resistance – and then I see 8809-76 as a potential zone of excess supply.

Contrasting this, a close below 8562 – which coincides nicely with the bottom of the long term trend ribbon – and we are very likely 8383 bound.

Which is the MOTN scenario (More Often Than Not)?

Beats me! 🤷

See how the short term downtrend is flattening out? How the long term trend ribbon is planking-horizontal? How the price action looks like a sickly echocardiogram? How the candles resemble the stipes of a zebra? 🦓

Together, these technical signals wreak of equilibrium… neither the demand nor the supply side care enough to force ownership of the price. ⚖️

Generally, this occurs when neither has a clear set of fundamentals driving them to see either fantastic or rubbish value in the market respectively.

They’re not sure. They’re indecisive.

So, if the market can’t decide, how can I as a trend follower decide? 🙅

I can’t. So, I stay the hell out! 🏃💨

View

A commendable demand-side showing today, but not enough yet to push me off my present 1/3RP (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit (Risk Position) for my investments in Australian stocks is 33%). The previously flagged transition to 1/2RP will resume when I see at least a couple more strong demand-side candles and/or a close above the 8702 point of supply.

Key levels

8547-8562 is the new closest zone of demand. A close below this price would confirm the supply side is back in control of the ASX 200's price. In theory though, the short term and long term trend ribbons may now begin to act as a zone of dynamic demand (presently 8551-8663). The next key zone of supply is the old demand zone at 8731-8738, and it's 8809-8843 above that.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Saturday

• 02:00 USA November Existing Home Sales (4.15 million forecast vs 4.10 million in October)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +21.5% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) – Cleveland Clinic adopts CTVQ, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +18.8% Lotus Resources (LOT) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +16.9% Bannerman Energy (BMN) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +16.8% Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS) – New RWS Order for North American Customer valued at US$21m, general strength across the broader Defence sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +16.7% St George Mining (SGQ) – Continued positive response to 18-Dec 139.45m from Surface - New Thickest Intercept at Araxa, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +16.7% Pmet Resources (PMT) – Share Issuance to VW Group, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +16.3% Weebit Nano (WBT) – No news, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• +16.1% Ioneer (INR) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +14.6% Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +12.2% Cogstate (CGS) – No news, bounced perfectly from long term uptrend ribbon! 🔎📈

• +12.1% Anson Resources (ASN) – Clarification Announcement - AGM Presentation.

• +12.0% Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +11.6% Droneshield (DRO) – No news, general strength across the broader Defence sector today.

• +11.4% Boss Energy (BOE) – Change in substantial holding, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today, rebounded after yesterday's sharp sell-off due to Honeymoon Update.

• +11.1% Hillgrove Resources (HGO) – Nugent Decline Completed on Schedule, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +10.8% Dateline Resources (DTR) – Change of Director's Interest Notice (S. Baghdadi +$191k on-market trade), general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, .

• +10.0% European Lithium (EUR) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +10.0% Argosy Minerals (AGY) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.0% Peninsula Energy (PEN) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +10.0% Silex Systems (SLX) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +9.3% Paladin Energy (PDN) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +8.8% Deep Yellow (DYL) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.6% Elevra Lithium (ELV) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.5% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.5% EQ Resources (EQR) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -13.1% Nova Minerals (NVA) – Nova Announces Pricing of US$20m NASDAQ Offering.

• -11.1% EDU Holdings (EDU) – No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -6.5% Netwealth Group (NWL) – No news since 18-Dec Netwealth members impacted by the First Guardian Master Fund.

• -6.0% Vulcan Steel (VSL) – No news.

• -5.3% Metal Powder Works (MPW) – No news.

Broker Moves

Aussie Broadband (ABB)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.15

Aeris Resources (AIS)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $0.60 from $0.62

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Retained at trim at Morgans; Price Target: $32.57 from $33.09

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

• Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $9.80

• Retained at underperform at Jefferies; Price Target: $9.46 from $9.53

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $10.20 from $10.30

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.60

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $11.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $10.95

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $2.00 from $1.35

Bannerman Energy (BMN)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.50

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $1.60 from $2.50

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.25 from $2.20

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $1.35 from $1.90

• Downgraded to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $1.00 from $1.60

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.25

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.15 from $2.10

Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $7.03 from $6.87

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at sell at Morgans; Price Target: $99.81 from $96.07

Charter Hall Group (CHC)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $27.75

Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $17.40 from $16.10

Delta Lithium (DLI)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $0.40

Dexus (DXS)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.95

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.10

• Retained at trim at Morgans; Price Target: $11.10 from $10.00

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $9.20 from $7.90

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.40

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $41.50

Graincorp (GNC)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $8.95 from $9.05

GPT Group (GPT)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.32

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $21.05

IDP Education (IEL)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.00

Judo Capital Holdings (JDO)

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $2.02 from $2.04

LendLease Group (LLC)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.58

Lovisa Holdings (LOV)

• Upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $38.00 from $42.00

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.45

Macquarie Group (MQG)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $221.00 from $216.00

National Australia Bank (NAB)

• Retained at sell at Morgans; Price Target: $32.56 from $31.46

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $162.00 from $148.00

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $32.00 from $34.00

Netwealth Group (NWL)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $30.65 from $35.00

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $33.30 from $33.10

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $31.00 from $32.50

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $33.05 from $33.75

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $27.75 from $29.00

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.60

South32 (S32)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $4.30 from $3.75

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $17.50 from $15.80

Stockland (SGP)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.90

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $5.25 from $6.10

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.25 from $6.25

Vicinity Centres (VCX)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.68

Vista Group International (VGL)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.22

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

• Retained at sell at Morgans; Price Target: $32.20 from $31.30

Wildcat Resources (WC8)

• Initiated at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.70

Scans