Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to test another record high, S&P 500 gains ahead of Nvidia earnings

ASX 200 futures are up 59 pts (+0.65%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks broadly higher, finished slightly off best levels

• A Tech-led session, with Mag-7 stocks broadly higher and software stocks bouncing on massive volumes

• Nvidia earnings due this morning

• Commodity prices broadly higher, but off best levels (e.g. gold currently up 0.5% vs. session highs of 1.4%)

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Thu 26 Feb 26, 8:24am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	6,946	+0.81%
Dow Jones	49,482	+0.63%
NASDAQ Comp	23,152	+1.26%
Russell 2000	2,663	+0.41%
Country Indices
Canada	34,127	+0.46%
China	4,147	+0.72%
Germany	25,176	+0.76%
Hong Kong	26,766	+0.66%
India	82,276	+0.06%
Japan	58,583	+2.20%
United Kingdom	10,806	+1.18%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	5,161.28	+0.41%
Copper	5.9785	+0.81%
WTI Oil	65.47	-0.28%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.7122	+0.90%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	69,172	+7.80%
Ethereum (AUD)	2,912	+12.05%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.048	+0.37%
VIX	17.96	-8.13%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher, closed off best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher, closed off best levels

• Tech-led session, with Mag-7 broadly higher, notably Microsoft (+3.0%), Meta (+2.2%), Broadcom (+2.1%) and Nvidia (+1.4%)

• Software stocks continued to bounce, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF up 3.1%, now breakeven in the last four sessions

• No specific driver to today's session, likely some software short covering after the collaboration and partnerships narrative that emerged from Anthropic's enterprise event, defensives that outperformed in recent days/weeks also lagged, notably Staples

• Markets look to Nvidia's earnings for reprieve amid market jitters about AI fears and capex spend (BBG)

• Corporate bond market most competitive on record amid strong demand (BBG)

• CME group temporarily halts trading in metals and natural gas futures amid technical issues (FT)

• Utilities, energy and materials sectors emerge as key winners from AI disruption trade as investors seek exposure to hard assets (FT)

• Bond traders now see Fed extending rate cutting cycle into 2027 after previously anticipating rate hikes (BBG)

• Citrini founder surprised at market reaction to report, describing it as conversation starter, not outright prediction (BBG)

• Investor demand for tariff refund claims rises significantly after Supreme Court ruling (BBG)

• Global M&A activity continues strong into 2026, driven by AI and strategic portfolio adjustments (CNBC)

• OPEC+ likely to consider ~137,000 bpd oil output increase to prepare for summer demand (RT)

STOCKS

• DoorDash exits four markets, including Japan, due to country-specific conditions (YF)

• White House to host Meta, Microsoft, and Anthropic to discuss reigning in power costs (YH)

• Big Tech and AI companies will reportedly sign agreement to build their own electricity supply (FN)

• Workday's revenue forecast falls short as economic uncertainty and AI competition impact software demand, shares briefly dip 9.5% but finish the session 2.2% higher (RT)

• Warner Bros Discovery anticipates Paramount's revised $31 per share bid will lead to better offer from Netflix (BBG)

• Stripe considers acquiring all or parts of PayPal (BBG)

• SAP customers express skepticism regarding value of company's new AI offerings (BBG)

• Cava Group raises 2026 outlook, signaling strong performance amidst fast-casual competition (BBG)

• HSBC surpasses profit expectations, driven by robust wealth management performance (BBG)

TARIFFS & TRADE

• China targets significant fivefold increase in AI-related chip production to meet demand (NK)

• Greer says US tariff rate to hit 15% or more for some counties (RT)

• Commerce Department says no Nvidia H200 chips have been sold to China yet (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed's Collins and Barkin signal limited support for near-term rate cut with policy well positioned and labour market stabilising (BBG)

GEOPOLITICS

• US deploys F-22 fighter jets to Israel amid regional tensions (NYT)

• Trump seeks indefinite duration for any new Iran nuclear agreement (AX)

• Pentagon to spend additional $12.6bn to counter China's military expansion (BBG)

ECONOMY

• Australian inflation surprises to the upside, trimmed mean up 3.4% in January vs. 3.3% ests, traders bolster bets for a second 25 bp hike this year (BBG)

ASX TODAY

Here comes 'Super Thursday'. A massive volume of results to hit the market, notably numbers from Sigma Healthcare, Qantas, Worley, Super Retail Group and more. To manage the chaos of results, we're moving the usual coverage from here to the Live Blog.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Woolworths: Woolies recorded its best session on record (since listing in 1994), closing the session 12.9% higher after its 1H26 result broadly beat expectations and management upgraded full-year EBIT expectations towards the upper end of its mid-to-high single digit range. Big takeaway here is that sales growth is accelerating, with the growth rate catching up to Coles. However, much like Monadelphous the other day, such a massive one day rally will likely attract broad analyst downgrades (on valuation) but target price hikes (on higher EPS outlook).

• Lithium: Zimbabwe suspended lithium concentrate and other raw minerals exports, effectively immediately. The mines minister said the ban stays until miners meet government requirements. Most overnight lithium names rallied on the news, but closed off best levels (e.g. Albemarle up 5.9%, down from session high of 8.8%).

• Tech: Starting to show signs of a bottom. The iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF experienced record volumes amid Tuesday's 1.9% bounce. The selloff sessions on 4, 5 and 23 Feb also hold the title for 2-4th highest volumes on record. Perhaps a sign of capitulation?

BROKER MOVES

• Accent Group upgraded to Buy from Hold; target up to $1.30 from $1.10 (MORG)

• Amplitude Energy upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform; target up to $2.80 from $2.70 (RBC)

• Domino’s Pizza upgraded to Neutral from Underperform; target up to $20.40 from $19.40 (MAQG)

• Domino’s Pizza upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform; target lowered to $19 from $20 (RBC)

• Fortescue upgraded to Hold from Trim; target remains $20.60 (MORG)

• Woolworths downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target up to $36.30 from $32.70 (JPM)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 26 Feb: Beach Energy (BPT) – $0.011, BSP Financial Group (BFL) – $0.37, Gryphon Capital Income Trust (GCI) – $0.011, Ignite (IGN) – $0.03, IPH (IPH) – $0.19, JB Hi-Fi (JBH) – $2.10, KKR Credit Income Trust (KKC) – $0.017, Medibank Private (MPL) – $0.083, Mitchell Services (MSV) – $0.04, Perpetual Credit Income Trust (PCI) – $0.006, Pro Medicus (PME) – $0.32, Shape Australia Corporation (SHA) – $0.14, Stanmore Resources (SMR) – $0.127, Universal Store Holdings (UNI) – $0.26, Whitehaven Coal (WHC) – $0.04

• Fri 27 Feb: AMP (AMP) – $0.022, Argo Global Listed Infrastructure (ALI) – $0.045, Australian United Investment Company (AUI) – $0.17, Centrepoint Alliance (CAF) – $0.013, Count (CUP) – $0.02, Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI) – $0.068, Diversified United Investment (DUI) – $0.07, Eureka Group Holdings (EGH) – $0.007, Fiducian Group (FID) – $0.255, Ingenia Communities Group (INA) – $0.048, Lendlease Group (LLC) – $0.062, MA Credit Income Trust (MA1) – $0.013, Metrics Income Opportunities Trust (MOT) – $0.009, Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT) – $0.012, Metrics Real Estate Multi-Strategy Fund (MRE) – $0.007, Orora (ORA) – $0.05, Pengana International Equities (PIA) – $0.014, Prime Financial Group (PFG) – $0.008

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT), HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN), Mirvac (MGR)

• Earnings: Sigma Healthcare (SIG), Lynas Rare Earths (LYC), Qantas Airways (QAN), Ramsay Health Care (RHC), Westgold Resources (WGX), Atlas Arteria (ALX), Worley (WOR), Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY), Super Retail Group (SUL), Mesoblast (MSB), Perpetual (PPT), Dicker Data (DDR), Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU), IDP Education (IEL), Objective Corporation (OCL), Karoon Energy (KAR), Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ), Weebit Nano (WBT), Ridley Corporation (RIC), Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV), Aurelia Metals (AMI), Australian Ethical Investment (AEF), Beacon Minerals (BCN), Omni Bridgeway (OBL), Metro Mining (MMI), Qoria (QOR), Metal Powder Works (MPW), ClearView Wealth (CVW), Strike Energy (STX), Bisalloy Steel Group (BIS), Acusensus (ACE), BETR Entertainment (BBT), Rivco Australia (RIV), Atturra (ATA), OM Holdings (OMH), Capral (CAA), Shaver Shop Group (SSG)

• IPOs: Eastern Gas Corp at 12:00 pm 

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

No major economic announcements.