Evening Wrap: ASX 200 firms on second strong day for miners, as lithium, uranium and copper stocks surge

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 35.3 points higher, up 0.41%.

The ASX 200 gained for a second consecutive session as a bullish UBS copper report and easing oil prices extended the rotation into materials stocks, with energy also finding buyers as Brent crude rebounded in Asian trade. A Macquarie downgrade on Telstra (TLS) appeared to drag the Communication Services sector.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 35.3 points higher at 8,657.0, 0.4% from its session low and 0.2% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a modest 166 to 119. For the week, the XJO finished up 26.2 points or 0.3% higher, 2% from its intraweek low and just 0.2% from its intraweek high.

Materials (XMJ) (+1.3%) continued their recovery as a UBS research note declared copper at the centre of the current mining cycle — citing electrification demand from EVs, grid infrastructure, and AI data centres alongside tightening supply as ongoing drivers. The investment bank lifted its price forecasts for the metal by up to 13% across 2026 to 2028.

COMEX copper futures gained 1.4% to US$6.384/lb and LME aluminium rose 2.1% overnight. South32 (S32) (+5.1%), Alcoa (AAI) (+3.8%), Sandfire Resources (SFR) (+3.5%), Capstone Copper (CSC) (+3.1%), Rio Tinto (RIO) (+1.7%), and BHP (BHP) (+1.1%) all advanced. SGX iron ore futures edged up 0.3% to US$106.20/t, contributing to the broader sector momentum.

London Metals Exchange copper chart

Lithium stocks staged a sharp recovery as GFEX lithium carbonate futures rebounded 3.5% to CNY 183,740/t. Elevra Lithium (ELV) (+12.4%) was the standout, with Develop Global (DVP) (+3.3%), Liontown Resources (LTR) (+3.1%), PMET Resources (PMT) (+3.0%), and Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (+2.9%) all gaining.

Critical minerals stocks were also strongly bid — Metals X (MLX) (+9.3%), Iluka Resources (ILU) (+5.0%), IperionX (IPX) (+4.7%), and Chalice Mining (CHN) (+3.6%) all advanced as strategic minerals sentiment recovered from the week's heavy selling.

Uranium stocks received a welcome lift after Macquarie upgraded Paladin Energy (PDN) to Outperform from Neutral and Boss Energy (BOE) to Neutral from Underperform. Bannerman Energy (BMN) (+6.7%), Paladin Energy (PDN) (+5.9%), Boss Energy (BOE) (+4.6%), and Deep Yellow (DYL) (+4.5%) all gained strongly.

Energy (XEJ) (+1.0%) was buoyed by ICE Brent crude futures rebounding 2.4% to US$105/bbl in Asian trade — recouping all of its overnight decline after Iran's statements on uranium and the Strait of Hormuz tempered peace deal confidence. Santos (STO) (+1.4%), Karoon Energy (KAR) (+1.4%), and Woodside Energy (WDS) (+0.8%) were all firmer.

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+1.0%) caught the broader materials sector move and benefited from a modest overnight pullback in benchmark risk-free bond yields. COMEX gold futures eased 0.4% to US$4,526/oz and COMEX silver futures slipped 0.2% to US$76.58/oz — the commodity price leads were marginally negative but insufficient to dent sentiment. Evolution Mining (EVN) (+3.1%), Capricorn Metals (CMM) (+3.5%), and Bellevue Gold (BGL) (+3.0%) were the standout movers.

Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+0.5%) continued to attract defensive fund flows despite the broader risk-on tone. Select Harvests (SHV) (+4.6%), Bega Cheese (BGA) (+2.1%), and Metcash (MTS) (+2.0%) were the notable movers.

Financials (XFJ) (+0.3%) edged higher, with the overnight yield pullback providing modest support. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (+0.9%), Westpac (WBC) (+0.7%), and both ANZ (ANZ) and National Australia Bank (NAB) (each +0.5%) were firmer.

Communication Services (XTJ) (-1.9%) was the session's worst performer despite stable bond yields — making its decline the most conspicuous of the day. A Macquarie downgrade of Telstra to Neutral appeared to set a negative tone. Online classifieds names like Seek (SEK) (-5.9%), REA Group (REA) (-4.1%), CAR Group (CAR) (-2.8%), and Telstra (TLS) (-1.5%) were on the back foot from yesterday's heavy losses.

Utilities (XUJ) (-1.1%) and Real Estate (XPJ) (-0.9%) were also weaker despite the stable yield environment. Origin Energy (ORG) (-1.8%), AGL Energy (AGL) (-0.6%), Goodman Group (GMG) (-1.8%), and Cromwell Property (CMW) (-4.6%) were all lower.

Today's best ASX Top 300 gainers

Today's worst ASX Top 300 losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

Thursday’s modest white-bodied candle is solid without being convincing. Small shadows both top and bottom — some indecision. Close closer to the high than the low signals retained demand side control, albeit with diminished motivation from Wednesday’s strong showing.

Below average volume confirms that low motivation (from either side) was likely a result of tepid engagement (i.e., desire to trade). Neither the demand nor supply sides saw great reason to engage in force… But the prevailing environment of demand side control appeared sufficient to push the session's close into the black.

A pretty stock standard candle given the recent technicals: Short- and long-term remain strong and intact. Price action remains rising peaks and rising troughs, but is worth keeping an eye on: we are seeing some moderation here — but compared to the sheer brilliance of the preceding rally, hardly surprising or concerning (yet).

Candles still look solid. Nothing convincingly supply side in the recent price action moderation, and that in itself is testament to the resilience of demand — even at these elevated price levels.

Recent elevated volume confirms this resilience: yes price went up, supply came in, but demand remained sufficient to soak up the influx. ✅

Conclusion: I can’t see anything so sinister here, that is in terms of potential fingerprints of excess supply, to warrant any amendment to my present risk setting.

View

FRP (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣).

Key levels

26708 is the key point of supply. 25701-39 is the closest zone of demand, then there's the short term uptrend ribbon (presently 24995-25560). If the price closes back below this range, the supply-side is very likely back in control of the Comp's price.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Small candle compared to the previous four, but it is Friday. Also, compared to the last four candles, it was an end to the Zebra pattern! 🦓

Which is welcome.

Small candle. Below average volume. Prevailing sideways-to-down trends, price action and candles = Not a great deal to go on as far as changing my prevailing view is concerned.

You know I want to see an emphatic close back above the trend ribbons (presently 8672-8742) before deciding on whether to move some capital back in. Ideally, there's also a higher trough to 8485 in the mix.

Until then, this is a neutral at best proposition. The risk that the trend ribbons end up being a zone where the price action is beaten back down again is too much to ignore... Pass for me. 🙅

View

I remain 1/3RP 🪣 on the OTP (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 33%). Let's see a confident close back above the trend ribbons before deciding on whether to move some capital back in.

Key levels

The short- and long-term downtrend ribbons (presently 8672-8742) combine to represent the key zone of supply. Beyond that, it's the not so lucky 8888 level! Demand is the 8262-8379 zone. Below that... 😱!

(Glossary of acronyms! Old Tin Pot (OTP): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position)

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +9.6% Guzman Y Gomez (GYG) - announced it would immediately exit the US market and close its Chicago restaurants after the business failed to meet financial performance hurdles; the US exit will incur a one-off cost of US$30–40 million but will not affect FY26 dividends, with analysts noting the move sharpens focus on the higher-quality Australian business and removes a major overhang on the stock.

• +9.4% Appen (APX) - reaffirmed FY26 guidance at its AGM, with revenue expected in the range of $270–300 million and underlying EBITDA margin of approximately 5–10% before foreign exchange, citing steady demand in AI training data markets.

• +7.3% Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI) - flagged a sharp deterioration in second-half profitability, with underlying profit expected to fall to $1 million for the June half from $13.9 million a year earlier and revenue declining 24% to $116 million, though the stock rose despite the weak guidance, likely reflecting some relief that the extent of the deterioration was already partially anticipated.

• +3.5% Sandfire Resources (SFR) - UBS upgraded to Neutral from Sell and lifted its price target to $20 from $16.75, as part of a broader bullish review of the copper market.

• +3.1% Capstone Copper (CSC) - UBS retained its Buy rating and increased its price target to $18 from $15 as part of the same copper sector review.

• +3.1% Evolution Mining (EVN) - UBS upgraded to Buy from Neutral and lifted its price target to $14 from $13.80 as part of its copper and gold sector review.

• +3.0% Mayne Pharma (MYX) - the NSW Supreme Court awarded $13.27 million in legal fees against US pharmaceutical company Cosette, which wrongfully attempted to cancel its proposed acquisition of Mayne last year, largely rejecting Cosette's argument that only $10.5 million was owed.

• +2.3% Monadelphous (MND) - secured approximately $120 million in new construction and maintenance contracts, including a five-year panel contract for crane and lifting services across Rio Tinto's Pilbara operations, a three-year extension for sustaining capital services, and a battery energy storage system contract at Fortescue's Cloudbreak mine.

Trading lower

• -5.3% Bapcor (BAP) - Goldman Sachs downgraded to Sell from Neutral and slashed its price target to $0.36 from $0.74, flagging weakening consumer demand, mounting cost pressures, and a continued long-term downtrend that has featured prominently in market downtrend scans over the past two years.

• -4.0% Insurance Australia Group (IAG) - Citi warned the insurer could face material claims arising from the failed financier Greensill.

• -1.5% Telstra (TLS) - Macquarie downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and cut its price target to $5.57 from $5.64, arguing the premium the stock commands for its perceived defensive earnings stream is becoming increasingly difficult to justify.

• -0.8% Nuix (NXL) - ASIC announced it would appeal the Federal Court's decision to dismiss its case against the company, meaning the long-running legal dispute will continue.

• -0.0% (TRADING HALT) Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) - launched a $350 million institutional placement at 26¢ per share alongside a $25 million share purchase plan to fully fund the equity component of its Nolans rare earths project, with the raising split across two tranches — $175.5 million immediately and $174.5 million subject to shareholder approval.

Broker Moves

Australian Agricultural Company (AAC)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.85 from $1.95

APA Group (APA)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $10.47 from $8.69

ARB Corporation (ARB)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $17.40

Bapcor (BAP)

• Downgraded to sell from neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $0.36 from $0.74

Bega Cheese (BGA)

• Initiated at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.70

BHP Group (BHP)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at Bank of America; Price Target: $69.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $60.00 from $52.00

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.30

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $1.10

Centuria Office REIT (COF)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.95 from $1.05

Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $18.00 from $15.00

Doctor Care Anywhere Group PLC (DOC)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.24 from $0.20

DroneShield (DRO)

• Initiated at lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.28

Energy One (EOL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $17.10 from $18.00

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $17.85 from $20.79

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $18.00

• Retained at buy at PAC Partners; Price Target: $19.22

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $14.00 from $13.80

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $16.55

Helloworld Travel (HLO)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.63

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $8.50

James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $31.50 from $32.50

Karoon Energy (KAR)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.50 from $2.25

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $215.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $195.00

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $29.00 from $31.00

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $33.00 from $33.05

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $13.25

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at Bank of America; Price Target: $69.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $183.00 from $160.00

South32 (S32)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.10 from $4.50

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; Price Target: $20.00 from $16.75

SGH (SGH)

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $46.00

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $42.50

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $50.35 from $50.40

Serko (SKO)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.90

Santos (STO)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.00 from $8.65

Symal Group (SYL)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.30

Telstra Group (TLS)

• Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.57 from $5.64

Technology One (TNE)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $31.38 from $29.73

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $34.00 from $33.25

Webjet Group (WJL)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.45 from $0.67

Scans