Evening Wrap: ASX 200 falls for a fifth straight session, Origin tumbles 5%, Miners bounce

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 20 points lower, down 0.23%.

Hi there – Kerry here! It's a public holiday in Perth, so I'll be looking after today's Evening Wrap.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, Carl has detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

ASX 200 session chart

ASX 200 lower, but off worst levels (Source: Market Index)

Markets

• ASX 200 down 0.23% but off session lows of -0.65%

• Poor breadth, with nine sectors lower and 122 constituents (61%) in red

• Materials (+0.63%) drove the bulk of today's intraday bounce, reversing early declines of 0.66%

  • BHP (+0.11%) and Rio Tinto (+0.78%) both positive despite trading slightly lower in early trade

  • Copper names also off lows, with Sandfire (+0.9%) higher, but strength was more noticeable towards the smaller end of town (Aeries, FireFly Metals, Hot Chilli up 2-8%)

  • All Ords Gold Index (+1.63%) also down in early trade but spent most of the session trending higher

  • Strong session for lithium names, with PLS Group (+2.7%), Liontown (+1.7%) and IGO (+4.4%) broadly higher as Chinese lithium carbonate futures edge 1.7% higher to 180,480 yuan a tonne or ~5% away from early January highs

• Utilities (-2.8%) largely hit by a 5.0% selloff for Origin Energy, where the company reported APLNG revenue down 12% quarter-on-quarter to $1.85bn and downgraded its Octopus Energy EBITDA to (-$70m)-$30m vs. prior guidance of $0-150m

• Energy (-1.8%) complex broadly lower, including oil and gas, coal, uranium and refiners. This follows a 5.7% dip in crude oil prices last Friday, though prices are tracking 1.3% higher to US$101.24 today

• Financials (-0.4%) have been a real paint point for the index, down ten of the last eleven sessions (a 5.4% dip since 10-Apr)

• Overall, markets are at a rather odd juncture. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are powering to fresh all-time highs, supported by a still-solid macro backdrop, the odds of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Fed Chair soaring to ~99%, and a strong Q1 earnings season (reporters so far delivering aggregate EPS growth of ~15% vs. 12.6% ests). Despite that strong Wall Street lead, the local market is struggling as healthcare stocks continue to spiral, banks are pulling back after a string of downbeat updates from BOQ, Westpac and ANZ, and energy names are refusing to price in geopolitically charged oil prices. After a strong ~7% rally from 23 March lows, the ASX 200 is now approaching the key 200-day moving average, so we'll just have to see how the dust settles

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Wednesday

• 11:30 AUS March Consumer Price Index (CPI)

  • Headline: +1.3% m/m forecast vs +0.0% m/m in February & +4.8% p.a. forecast vs +3.7% p.a. in February

  • Trimmed Mean: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m in February

Thursday

• 04:00 USA Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting

  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.75% p.a. forecast, unchanged

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +13.4% Atlas Arteria (ALX) – Unsolicited off-market takeover bid received from IFM Investors at A$4.75 per security in cash, with the price increasing to $5.10 per security if IFM's relevant interest reaches 45% or more before close

• +9.6% Alpha HPA (A4N) – No news

• +9.2% Wildcat Resources (WC8) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today

• +8.3% Aeris Resources (AIS) – No news, general strength across the broader Base Metals/Gold sector today

• +7.4% Meeka Metals (MEK) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today

• +7.0% Elevra Lithium (ELV) – Continued positive response to 23-Apr March 2026 Quarterly Activities Report, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today

• +6.8% Newmont Corporation (NEM) – Continued positive response to last Friday's Q1 result featuring record US$3.1bn quarterly free cash flow and a US$6bn share buyback expansion

• +6.4% New Murchison Gold (NMG) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today

• +6.1% Andean Silver (ASL) – No news, general strength across the broader Silver/Precious Metals sector today

• +5.8% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) – No news

• +5.5% PMET Resources (PMT) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today

• +5.5% EQ Resources (EQR) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals/Tungsten sector today

• +5.4% Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE) – No news, general strength across the broader Rare Earths sector today

• +5.4% WA1 Resources (WA1) – No news, general strength across the broader Rare Earths/Critical Minerals sector today

Trading lower

• -15.8% Toubani Resources (TRE) – No news, profit-taking after ~56% run between 31-Mar and 15-Apr

• -8.2% Resolute Mining (RSG) – Continued negative response to 23-Apr March 2026 Quarterly Activities Report showing softer Q1 gold production, with AISC of US$2,210/oz tracking at the upper end of guidance, management warning AISC may exceed the US$2,000–$2,200 range if elevated gold and fuel prices persist

• -6.5% Australian Strategic Materials (ASM) – No news

• -5.0% Origin Energy (ORG) – Q3 FY26 quarterly update showing Integrated Gas production fell to 164.5 PJ on natural field decline, with revenue down 13.3% quarter-on-quarter to $1.86 billion driven by lower realised LNG prices and lower sales volumes

• -4.8% Omega Oil & Gas (OMA) – No news, profit-taking after the strong run-up following 23-Apr OMA Raise A$60m to Fund Upgraded 26/27 Taroom Trough Program

• -4.4% Omni Bridgeway (OBL) – No news

• -3.8% Viva Energy (VEA) – No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today

• -3.6% ZIP Co (ZIP) – No news, profit-taking after the strong run-up following 17-Apr Q3 FY26 quarterly update where the BNPL company posted record cash EBTDA of $65.1m and upgraded FY26 group cash EBTDA guidance to no less than $260m

• -3.6% Nexgen Energy (NXG) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today

• -3.5% Paladin Energy (PDN) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

Broker Moves

AUB Group (AUB)

• Initiated at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $27.30

Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

• Downgraded to overweight from buy at Jarden; Price Target: $16.70 from $18.00

Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN)

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $5.40 from $6.60

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $9.10

• Upgraded to neutral from negative at E&P; Price Target: $7.80

• Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $5.30 from $5.50

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $8.50 from $10.50

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.50 from $9.75

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $8.00 from $9.00

JB Hi-Fi (JBH)

• Upgraded to buy from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $87.90 from $88.90

Judo Capital Holdings (JDO)

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $1.75 from $2.20

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.20 from $2.18

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $2.15 from $2.20

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $2.09

PLS Group (PLS)

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $6.50

• Downgraded to underweight from neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $2.60 from $2.50

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $5.40 from $5.20

Qoria (QOR)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.50 from $0.80

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.56 from $0.74

• Retained at buy at Unified Capital Partners; Price Target: $0.75 from $0.77

Solstice Minerals (SLS)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.85

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $19.10 from $18.30

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $17.70 from $16.50

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $18.30

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $19.60 from $19.25

Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $10.75

Wesfarmers (WES)

• Upgraded to neutral from underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $74.50 from $77.30

Scans