Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, Intel and semis power S&P 500 and Nasdaq to all-time highs

ASX 200 futures are down 3 pts (-0.03%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 (+0.80%) and Nasdaq (+1.63%) closed at fresh all-time highs as blowout Q1 earnings from Intel ignited tech stocks

• Intel shares up 23% on broad earnings and guidance beat, largest one-day rally since 1987

• Nvidia (+4.3%) rallied back above US$5 trillion market cap, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose for an 18th consecutive session

• Market breadth was poor, with defensive and value-oriented sectors struggling, the Dow (-0.16%) and Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.21%) finished red

• Markets eager to move on from US-Iran conflict, though ongoing ceasefire and peace talks remain fragile

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Mon 27 Apr 26, 8:21am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	7,165	+0.80%
Dow Jones	49,231	-0.16%
NASDAQ Comp	24,837	+1.63%
Russell 2000	2,787	+0.43%
Country Indices
Canada	33,904	-0.03%
China	4,080	-0.33%
Germany	24,129	-0.11%
Hong Kong	25,978	+0.24%
India	76,664	-1.29%
Japan	59,716	+0.97%
United Kingdom	10,379	-0.75%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	4,709.27	-0.53%
Copper	6.0	-0.34%
WTI Oil	94.4	-1.51%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.7141	-0.14%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	78,475	+1.16%
Ethereum (AUD)	3,315	+2.19%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.31	-0.30%
VIX	18.71	-3.11%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gaps up, closes near best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks closed mostly higher Friday with S&P 500 and Nasdaq at fresh records, finishing near best levels as Intel's blowout quarter ignited semis

• Breadth was poor, with the Dow (-0.16%) and Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.21%) underperforming amid weakness outside of Tech, Discretionary and Materials

• US weekly recap: Nasdaq (+1.50%), S&P 500 (+0.55%), Russell 2000 (+0.36%), Dow (-0.44%)

• Markets buoyed by strong earnings – of the 28% of S&P 500 companies that have reported for Q1, 84% have beaten consensus EPS expectations, with a blended earnings growth rate of 15.1% vs. 13.2% ests

• Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose for an 18th straight session, with Nvidia retaking the US$5tn market cap mark and Intel posting its best day since 1987 (YF)

• BofA Hartnett strategy team recommending curve steepeners, China and consumer cyclicals as portfolio plays into mid-2026 (BBG)

• Investors piled back into MSCI Frontier Markets Index, up ~10% in dollar terms in April for its best month since 2009 (BBG)

• Trump's Truth Social posts have driven the five best and worst S&P 500 sessions over the past 15 months, an unmatched grip versus prior modern presidents (BBG)

• US equity funds attracted the largest weekly net inflow in four weeks through April 22, driven by upbeat earnings and AI deal optimism (BBG)

ENERGY

• IEA says global natural gas market will remain tight well beyond 2026 due to Middle East conflict and infrastructure damage (BBG)

• Goldman Sachs says Gulf oil output will mostly recover within few months after reopening of Strait of Hormuz (RT)

IRAN

• Trump cancelled trip by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for Iran peace talks Saturday, posting on Truth Social: "Too much time wasted on traveling, too much work" (CBS)

• Trump says any future Iran negotiations will happen by phone, saying "we're not sending people to travel 18 hours to meet" and Iran's offer was "not enough" (CBS)

• Iran's military command warned that if US continues blockade of Iranian ports it will "face the response of Iran's powerful armed forces" (NBC)

• US Naval forces intercepted Iran-linked, sanctioned vessel in the Arabian Sea on Saturday amid push to limit Iranian energy exports (BBG)

• Iran has been laying more mines in Strait of Hormuz this week, US tracking closely and developing plans to counter (AX)

• US military deploys third aircraft carrier to the Middle East, highest count in over 20 years (CNN)

• Israel and Lebanon will extend ceasefire by three weeks, allowing for talks on long-term peace accord (BBG)

STOCKS

• Intel Q1 FY26 revenue up 7% to $13.6bn, ~9% ahead of consensus, EPS $0.29 vs $0.01 expected, Data Center and AI revenue up 22% to $5.1bn, Q2 guide of $13.8-$14.8bn well above $13.07bn consensus, shares up 23% Friday (CNBC)

• Procter & Gamble Q3 FY26 revenue up 7% to $21.2bn, organic sales up 3%, core EPS $1.59 up 3%, narrowed FY26 EPS guidance to lower end of 1-6% growth range, shares up 1.7% (YF)

• SAP cloud revenue growth tops estimates on AI demand, reiterates FY sales guidance but cites Iran conflict risk, shares up 4.6% (RT)

• Alphabet to invest up to US$40bn in Anthropic, with US$10bn upfront cash at US$350bn valuation and US$30bn more tied to performance milestones, plus 5GW of compute capacity over five years (BBG)

• Amazon-backed nuclear firm X-Energy raised $1.02bn in US IPO, shares climbed 27% on debut (BBG)

• Avis short squeeze ended with a 70% crash, marking abrupt reversal of meme stock rally (BBG)

• TSMC shares surge as Taiwan regulators ease investment limits, enabling fund managers to increase stakes (BBG)

TARIFFS & TRADE

• US Treasury imposed sanctions on China-based Petrochemical Refinery, Iran's second-largest 'teapot' customer, plus ~40 shipping firms and vessels in Iran's shadow fleet (RT)

• China's embassy in Washington called for US to stop "abusing" sanctions and "weaponising" trade, said normal trade should not be harmed (CNBC)

CENTRAL BANKS

• DOJ dropped probe of Fed Chair Powell, raising odds Trump nominee Kevin Warsh will be confirmed by Senate before Powell's term ends May 15 (WP)

• Fed widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.5-3.75% at the April 28-29 meeting, likely Powell's last (CNBC)

ECONOMY

• China exporters raising prices on range of consumer goods as surging oil prices drives up costs (BBG)

• S&P Global flash PMI showed prices charged by businesses jumped in April to highest level in nearly four years, reinforcing expectations Fed will not cut this year (RT)

• NAB downgraded Australian growth forecasts and lifted inflation outlook, sees inflation peaking near 5% in June quarter on fuel prices, expects RBA to hike 25bps in May (NAB)

ASX TODAY

• A quiet morning since NSW, WA and ACT all have public holidays on Monday

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Software bounce: iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF up 1.9% overnight after tumbling 5.8% in the previous session. Local tech stocks actually performed very strongly (in a relative sense) on Friday, reversing a 3.0% dip to close just 0.28% lower.

• Newmont vs. Gold ETFs: The Gold Miners ETF (NYSE-listed GDX) rose 2.3% overnight, but the move was largely driven by Newmont, which jumped 8.6% and accounts for about 13% of the ETF's net assets. Gold finished the Friday session largely unchanged, and is down ~0.5% in early trade on Monday.

BROKER MOVES

Broker data pending – full data available in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 27 Apr: None

• Tue 28 Apr: Alternative Investment Trust (AIQ) – $0.034

• Wed 29 Apr: 360 Capital Mortgage REIT (TCF) – $0.05, Acrow (ACF) – $0.02, Gryphon Capital Income Trust (GCI) – $0.01, KKR Credit Income Fund (KKC) – $0.01, Waterco (WAT) – $0.07

• Thu 30 Apr: Future Generation Australia (FGX) – $0.036, Metrics Income Opportunities Trust (MOT) – $0.012, Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT) – $0.014, Metrics Real Estate Multi-Strategy Fund (MRE) – $0.009

• Fri 1 May: Wam Strategic Value (WAR) – $0.033

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

No major economic announcements.