Evening Wrap: ASX 200 ticks higher as tech rebounds from AI sell-off, WTC up 12.8% as Fortescue sinks 4.7% on iron ore slide

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 19.5 points higher, up 0.22%.

ASX 200 squeezed out a small gain as a sharp tech sector relief rally and reporting season beats offset profit-taking in banks and fresh weakness in iron ore heavyweights.

Information Technology (XIJ) (+5.6%) rebounded after last week’s AI-driven sell-off, with WiseTech Global (WTC) (+12.8%) and Xero (XRO) (+7.5%) leading the charge.

Iron ore stayed below US$100/t after dipping US$1.60/t on Friday, and miners slid, with Fortescue (FMG) (-4.7%) and Rio Tinto (RIO) (-4.1%) the major drags. BHP Group Ltd (BHP) (-1.5%) wasn't that crash-hot either.

In reporting season news:

• The a2 Milk Co. (A2M) (+6.8%) surged after a strong first half (1H) result beat and upgraded FY26 revenue growth to mid double-digits.

• Aurizon (AZJ) (+6.9%) also jumped on a solid 1H beat plus a big dividend surprise and extended buyback.

• JB Hi-Fi (JBH) (+7.4%) rallied despite an in-line result

• Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) (-5.1%) fell after a large statutory loss and interim dividend suspension.

• Origin Energy (ORG) (-1.9%) extended its sell-off after last week’s half-year result.

• New Hope Corporation (NHC) (+1.0%) beat on Q2 sales and trimmed Bengalla sustaining capex guidance.

In Asian trade, gold is down about 1% at US$4,989/oz and silver has retreated 2% to US$75.8/oz. Despite these weaker leads, in the small-to-mid-cap ASX gold's Alkane Resources (ALK) (+11.4%) and Genesis Minerals (GMD) (+7.4%) prospered, while at the top tend Newmont Corp. (NEM) gained +2.7%.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 19.5 points higher at 8,937.1, 0.25% from its session low and 0.18% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a healthy 199 to 78.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

In Friday’s update, we said that Thursday’s long, black-bodied candle, with its close very near the low of the session demonstrated “credible supply-side motivation — they wanted out — and there was very little demand-side motivation in the way.”

We also noted that with only average volume (so, roughly balanced on supply-side size versus the demand getting in its way), it was just a “one warning sign emoji” kind of day! = ⚠️

Each day, volume and candle combine to tell us the real story of demand and supply. A ⚠️⚠️ Thursday’s candle, in comparison, would have either had substantially above average volume (i.e. “deluge of supply”) or substantially below average volume (i.e., “demand-side vacuum”).

With these parameters in mind, what does that make Friday’s candle? 🤔

It’s certainly a candle that’s consistent with supply-side control:

• Upward pointing shadow = sell the rally

• Small relative to Thursday’s convincing supply-side showing = very little demand-side penetration back into latent supply = very little buy the dip FOMO / motivation among demand-side + retained supply-side motivation (= kept a lid on prices!)

• Close near low of session = continued supply-side motivation into close = likely unquenched latent excess supply

• Volume was well below average = there’s not a great deal of buy-the-dippers around, but similarly, supply didn’t engage in a meaningful way even as prices receded — or rather, after they saw few demand-side targets, the supply-side chose not to push any harder due to the risk of spilling prices on a Friday afternoon!

None of those bullets read as very positive for the Comp to rally tonight — we’d typically say that a decline of some sort is a MOTN (More Often Than Not) proposition.

Not guaranteed to go down — the future is unknown — prediction is futile = So we don’t waste our time trying to do it!

Plus, we’re still tracking the long term uptrend ribbon, remember!? It’s a potential source or latent demand — certainly it was just a few trading sessions ago…

But, what we can say right now, is that the demand-side looks very timid. We can also say that the supply-side looks far more motivated and organised — even if it stopped short of completely flooding the market with stock on Friday.

How long will that restraint remain intact? If they feel that demand-side targets are not forthcoming, and the only way to shift their supply is to lower prices to entice buyers in… we are going to get a very serious dalliance with that long term uptrend ribbon!!!

Let the dalliances begin! 😉

View

Still on the fence here… but now rather comfortable with my position! I am at 1/2RP portfolio risk limit 🪣 (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100%).

Key levels

22461 is the critical point of demand. If the Comp closes below that price, we can assume the supply side is very much in control. On a close below 21898 the long term uptrend is likely under significant pressure = ⚠️. 23321 is the nearest critical static point supply, but the short term downtrend ribbon (presently 23155-23225) may also impede upside price action.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Blip.

Hardly a candle.

Hardly any information in it.

Or is there!? 🤔

In isolation, not really. Small candle = small engagement from demand- and supply-sides.

Generally, nothing really happened… or at least, there were few fundamental drivers to materially change risk appetite, and therefore drive either excess demand or excess supply.

But!

Put that "nothing" candle from today next to Friday’s "very much something" candle… and it’s not a great look. For the demand-side that is!

Just as in the Comp analysis, where we noted that the demand-side was unable to push back against the prevailing supply-side dominated very-short-term environment — we can say that Aussie investors saw few reasons to buy-the-dip or FOMO into local stocks today.

Volume was below average… again a combination of malaise and or the supply-side not wanting to push their point too hard for fear of spiling prices…

So, we ended up with a similar calm to the Comp's: but this is potentially just the eye of the storm!

In conclusion, little has changed: we’re on alert based on Friday’s candle, plus now the lack of the demand-side’s ability to undo that move.

Demand remains at the short term uptrend ribbon, and then at 8675-8683. I’m not sure how robust the short term trend ribbon is at the moment… it’s failed a couple of times since 8979.

One thing I do know, is that that if the 8675 goes… the supply-side is very much in control of the ASX 200’s price, and the long term uptrend will be in substantial trouble! ⚠️⚠️⚠️ (Yep, three warning sign emoji’s it that happens!)

View

I am 2/3 RP 🪣 (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 67%). I think, however, that we can cool it on the addition of any new long-side risk until the ASX 200's technical picture is decidedly more demand-side controlled in nature.

Key levels

The short term uptrend ribbon (presently 8843-8878) is the closest zone of demand, a close below it would neutralise the present short term uptrend. 9110-9116 is the key zone of supply. Celebrations are on hold until the demand-side can consumer the highly motivated supply that appears to be residing there.

Economy

Today

• There were no major economic news events in our time zone today.

Later this week

Tuesday

• 11:30 AUS Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (+3.45 billion m/m forecast vs +2.94 billion m/m in January)

Wednesday

• 10:30 AUS February MI Leading Index (+0.8% m/m forecast vs +0.1% m/m in January)

• 11:30 AUS February Wage Price Index (+0.8% q/q forecast vs +0.8% q/q in November)

Thursday

• 11:30 AUS February Employment Change (+20.1k m/m forecast vs +65.2k m/m in January)

• 11:30 AUS February Unemployment Rate (+4.2% forecast vs +4.1% in January)

Friday

• 12:30 USA Unemployment Claims (+229k w/w forecast vs +227k w/w previous)

Saturday

• 12:30 USA Advance GDP q/q (+2.8% p.a forecast vs +4.4% p.a. previous)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +24.8% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) – Co-PSMA abstract released.

• +19.5% Austal (ASB) – No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +14.6% EQ Resources (EQR) – Notice of Change of Interests of Substantial Holder (OCM Luxembourg Tungsten Holdings 18.9% from 16.0%), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +12.9% Wisetech Global (WTC) – No news, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• +11.4% Alkane Resources (ALK) – Amendment - Auditor Independence Declaration, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.1% Galan Lithium (GLN) – Hombre Muerto West Phase 1 Construction Update.

• +8.0% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) – No news, move is consistent with recent volatility.

• +8.0% Seek (SEK) – No news, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• +7.6% Xero (XRO) – No news, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• +7.5% JB HI-FI (JBH) – Appendix 4D and Financial Report - 2026 Half Year.

• +7.4% Genesis Minerals (GMD) – GMD bolsters production outlook with rec. offer for Magnetic and Presentation - Magnetic Attraction.

• +7.0% Aurizon Holdings (AZJ) – Half Year Results Presentation.

• +6.8% The A2 Milk Company (A2M) – Appendix 4D and 1H26 Interim Report.

• +6.8% Life360 (360) – No news, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today.

Trading lower

• -7.4% ACL (ACL) – ACL 1H26 financial results investor presentation and CEO contract update, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.9% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) – Business Update.

• -5.2% Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) – 2026 Interim Results Investor and Analyst Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.7% Fortescue (FMG) – No news, general weakness across the broader Iron Ore sector today.

• -4.1% Rio Tinto (RIO) – No news, general weakness across the broader Iron Ore sector today.

Broker Moves

29Metals (29M)

• Upgraded to hold from underperform at Jefferies; Price Target: $0.44 from $0.45

The a2 Milk Company (A2M)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $10.40

Audinate Group (AD8)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.10

Aeris Resources (AIS)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.90 from $0.82

Alkane Resources (ALK)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.05

Amcor Plc (AMC)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $91.25

Ansell (ANN)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $36.00

Abacus Storage King (ASK)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.50

ASX (ASX)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $49.05 from $46.65

Aurum Resource (AUE)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.50

AVITA Medical, Inc. (AVH)

• Upgraded to hold from sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.20

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.35

Aurizon Holdings (AZJ)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.45

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $10.25

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $10.95

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.00

Bravura Solutions (BVS)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.50

BWP Trust (BWP)

• Upgraded to neutral from underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $3.95 from $3.85

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $3.63 from $3.79

• Retained at underweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $3.70 from $3.80

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.17 from $4.11

Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $3.60 from $3.75

Cochlear (COH)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $210.00

• Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $250.00 from $310.00

• Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $244.90 from $285.90

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $304.00 from $345.00

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $239.00 from $295.90

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $270.00

• Upgraded to hold from trim at Morgans; Price Target: $214.93 from $299.54

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $241.50 from $281.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $350.00

Civmec (CVL)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.00 from $1.50

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.70

Dexus Industria REIT (DXI)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $2.80 from $3.00

Deep Yellow (DYL)

• Downgraded to underperform from hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $1.85

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.56 from $1.92

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $40.00

GPT Group (GPT)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.00

GQG Partners Inc. (GQG)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.85 from $2.25

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $1.70 from $1.65

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $1.89 from $1.90

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.70 from $2.50

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.05 from $2.00

GWA Group (GWA)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.90

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $24.00

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN)

• Retained at sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.30 from $1.35

HUB24 (HUB)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $100.60

JB Hi-Fi (JBH)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $110.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $94.00

Light & Wonder Inc. (LNW)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $175.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $210.00

Lovisa Holdings (LOV)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $33.00

Nick Scali (NCK)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $25.00 from $28.00

• Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $20.43 from $26.77

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $19.20 from $27.95

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $27.30 from $28.50

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $25.00 from $29.00

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $24.10 from $25.50

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $21.60 from $29.30

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $35.00 from $31.10

• Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Morgans; Price Target: $30.50 from $33.00

Oohmedia (OML)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.75

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $15.30

REA Group (REA)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $218.90

Reece (REH)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $13.80

Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.20

SEEK (SEK)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $27.20

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $16.20

Stockland (SGP)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.90

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.82

Santos (STO)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.80

Toubani Resources Inc (TRE)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.70 from $1.50

Titomic (TTT)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.50

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $4.80

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $4.75

Universal Store Holdings (UNI)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $10.25

Vitrafy Life Sciences (VFY)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.50 from $2.30

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $37.10 from $36.00

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.00

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $34.50

• Upgraded to trim from sell at Morgans; Price Target: $35.12 from $32.20

• Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $31.00

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.80

Webjet Group (WJL)

• Downgraded to hold from outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $0.60 from $1.05

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $1.00 from $1.10

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $0.61 from $0.90

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.67 from $1.15

Wisetech Global (WTC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $109.15

Scans