Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 higher, Mining stocks set to soar

In a nutshell:

• Miners, Healthcare and Banks led Wall Street higher, but major benchmarks still finished the week lower after a violent move in bond yields

• Trade talks between the US and Canada collapsed just before a midnight deadline, triggering 50% US tariffs on Canadian goods and a promise of dollar-for-dollar retaliation from Mark Carney

• Two enormous catalysts land this week, with Bessent detailing the plan to economically isolate Iran on Monday and Nvidia reporting on Wednesday ahead of Jackson Hole

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks finished broadly higher, slightly off best levels

• US weekly recap: S&P 500 (-1.43%), Nasdaq (-2.05%), Dow (-0.85%), Russell 2000 (-1.65%)

• Bond yields continued to unwind the decline sparked by Bessent’s buyback expansion, with the 30-year up 2 bps to 5.27% vs. 5.28% prior to the announcement

• US 10-year up 2 bps to 4.73%, edging past recent highs and closing at the highest since Jan-25

• Gold soared 1.86% to US$4,602/oz, marking three-straight weekly gains and now up almost 15% since late-Jul

• Ray Dalio told investors to underweight bonds and hold as much as 15% of portfolios in gold plus some bitcoin, warning a US debt crisis could arrive within roughly three years (BBG) 

• Bessent holds a press conference on Monday to unveil the detail of Washington's plan to economically isolate Iran, a measure Trump has branded an "economic D-Day" (YF)

• Nvidia has told some of its biggest customers that prices for servers built around its AI chips will rise by more than 15% on systems shipping early next year, driven by surging memory costs and covering flagship Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell configurations, with results due Wednesday (BBG)

• Tesla will recall roughly 2.98 million imported and China-made Model 3, Model Y, Model S and Model X vehicles from 25 September over emergency door-release handles, the largest slice of a broader action covering more than 4 million cars across at least nine carmakers (BBG)

• Boeing engineers and technical staff voted down a four-year contract and authorised strike action, with the professional unit rejecting 64.3% and the technical unit 71.9%. The 17,000-member SPEEA cannot walk out before contracts expire on 6 October, putting 737 Max 10 and 777-9 certification at risk (BBG)

• Uber was fined 825 million euros, or ~US$964m, by the Dutch Data Protection Authority for using automated software to suspend driver accounts without human review between 2018 and 2022, breaching GDPR. Uber said it disagrees and will appeal (AP)

• Robinhood shares jumped ~14% and Coinbase ~8% on Friday as crypto-linked equities extended a rally sparked by Trump's White House push for Congress to pass the Clarity Act market structure bill (CNBC)

• Iranian President Pezeshkian called for the war with the US to end, arguing Tehran should conclude the conflict now while it holds power and dignity, in a direct rebuke to hardliners (BBG)

• Iran's security chief Rezaei threatened to halt all Gulf oil traffic if neighbouring states join Trump's economic war, vowing not to let a single drop pass, in a televised speech late Saturday (CNN)

• Tehran is allowing a number of Iraqi oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, the latest example of Iran granting selective access to the waterway it has kept partially shut (CNN)

• Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Baqaei said on Saturday the new US sanctions amount to an assertion of extraterritorial sovereignty over every independent UN member state, not merely economic warfare against one country (CNBC)

• Trump's plan pairs new sanctions with a naval blockade and pressure on Iran's trading partners, though the IRGC claims control of the Strait of Hormuz and retains multiple avenues to retaliate across the Gulf (BBG)

• The US military said it has helped tankers move more than 660 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz since early May, suggesting substantial volumes are still transiting the corridor (CNBC)

• US tariffs of 50% on Canadian goods took effect just after midnight Saturday after three days of intensive talks in Washington collapsed, with each side blaming the other for derailing the negotiations (BBG)

• PM Carney suspended trade negotiations late Friday, citing what he called unfair and uneconomic last-minute changes to Washington's proposed terms, and said the levies apply to roughly US$28bn of Canadian goods (CNBC)

• Canada will retaliate dollar for dollar from 8 September, targeting US steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper and electronics, in a move that complicates the future of the USMCA pact (RT)

• Carney branded the tariffs "a miscalculation" at a Saturday news conference in Ottawa, with the US duties applying to hockey sticks, building materials, liquors and certain categories of clothing (AP)

• Trump has threatened "TREMENDOUS Economic Consequences" for any country that continues trading with Tehran, putting China, India and Germany in the firing line ahead of Monday's detail (CNN)

• Lula called Trump to restart negotiations over US tariffs on Brazil, according to Bloomberg's tariff tracker (BBG)

• Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote this Friday, with the Kansas City Fed symposium running 27-29 August under the theme "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy" (BBG)

• BofA FMS Survey found 69% expect a neutral tone from Warsh, leaving a hawkish or dovish surprise as the main risk to markets 19 days out from the 16 September FOMC decision (BBG)

• July FOMC vote split 9-3, the largest bloc of dissents since 2016, signalling growing conviction among some policymakers that higher rates are needed to curb resurgent inflation (BBG)

• Warsh is weighing cutting the number of FOMC meetings to six from eight, according to recently released minutes, part of a broader shift away from the forward guidance markets grew used to under Powell (TM)

• Bessent confirmed buyback operations will at least double to $4bn, running from 9 September through 4 November and targeting the 10-year to 30-year sector, and said the size could go higher still (CNBC)

• Markets are pricing roughly a 75% chance of a Bank of Japan hike in September, according to an ING note, with the bank arguing Bessent is effectively betting on yen appreciation (YF)

• US flash composite PMI jumped to 56.0 in August from 54.5 in July, the strongest reading since April 2022 and well ahead of the 54.0 consensus, pointing to third-quarter annualised growth approaching 3% (S&P)

• US flash services PMI surged to 56.8 from 54.6, a 20-month high and a sizeable beat against the 54.0 estimate, with employment rising to its highest since January 2025 (S&P)

• US flash manufacturing PMI eased to 53.2 from 53.9, a five-month low and a miss against the 53.9 consensus, as safety-stock building faded and supply delays lengthened again (S&P)

• Eurozone flash composite PMI edged up to 52.1 in August from 52.0, the highest since November and consistent with third-quarter GDP growth of about 0.3%, with hiring returning for the first time this year (S&P)

• Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8 from 51.9, comfortably above the 51.8 forecast, while services held at 51.7. Germany led the manufacturing upturn (S&P)

• Japan flash composite PMI climbed to 53.4 in August from 52.7, a six-month high, with manufacturing rising to 55.1 from 54.5 amid near-record price pressures (S&P)

• UK retail sales volumes fell 0.5% month-on-month in July, the first decline since April, partly reversing a downwardly revised 0.7% June gain as hot weather and fewer discounts deterred shoppers (BBG)

With plenty more results still landing, head to the Live Blog for a full breakdown of today's announcements

• Adore Beauty posts record FY26 group revenue of $207.3m, up 4.3%, with underlying EBITDA of $3.8m (1.8% of revenue) broadly in line with May-26 guidance. Gross margin fell 52bps to 34.8% on a weak H1. More than doubled its store network to 20 after opening 13 outlets, with the capital-heavy ERP and distribution-centre cycle now largely behind it (ABY)

• Ampol delivers H1 CY26 RCOP EBITDA of $1,637m and RCOP NPAT (ex-significant items) of $857m, with statutory NPAT of $1,363m, as Middle East-driven market dislocation benefited results. Declares a fully franked interim dividend of 185cps. Completed the EG Australia acquisition at the end of the half (ALD)

• Aussie Broadband lifts FY26 underlying EBITDA 19.6% to $165.3m on revenue up 9.2% to $1,295.4m, with on-net broadband connections up 41% to over 1.11m. Guides FY27 underlying EBITDA of $205-215m and launches an on-market buyback of up to $115m. FY26 dividend up 50% to 6.0cps fully franked (ABB)

• Bendigo and Adelaide Bank reports FY26 cash earnings of $530.2m, up 3.0%, and statutory NPAT of $375.1m, with H2 cash earnings 6.8% higher as NIM rose 6bps to 1.98%. Result includes a $70m provision for a non-financial risk rectification plan. Fully franked final dividend of 33cps (BEN)

• City Chic Collective grows FY26 underlying EBITDA 92% to $12.3m on global sales revenue of $130.5m, with trading margin up 2.1pp to 60.6% and cost of doing business down $7.1m. ANZ revenue rose 7.6% on comp sales up 5.6%. Ended in $5.2m net cash, with ANZ store comps up 11.4% in the first seven weeks of FY27 (CCX)

• Lindsay Australia delivers record FY26 revenue of $1,072.7m, up 26.2% and past $1bn for the first time, with underlying EBIT up 37.7% to $60.4m and reported NPAT up 31.5% to $22.9m. Net leverage fell to 1.92x. Final dividend of 1.7cps fully franked takes the full year to 3.8c, in line with FY25 (LAU)

• Monash IVF postpones its FY26 results from today to 31 August, citing an audit of its financial statements taking longer than anticipated (MVF)

• Reece reports FY26 sales revenue up 4.5% to $9,378m but NPAT down 2.8% to $308m and EBIT down 2.6% to $534m, with EBITDA flat at $901m as a weak US residential market weighed on growth while ANZ volumes recovered. Fully franked final dividend of 13.40cps (REH)

• Regal Partners lifts 1H26 normalised NPAT 108% to $93.3m (statutory $94.1m, up 258%), driven by $118.7m of performance fees and a record $1.4bn of net FUM inflows that took FUM to $21.4bn. Fully franked dividend of 12cps (RPL)

• Regal Partners flags CIO of Long Short Equities Philip King will begin a transition to retirement, remaining in his current roles until at least 30 June 2027 for an orderly handover. King directly manages around 16% of group FUM, with no immediate change to portfolio responsibilities (RPL)

• Ventia grows HY26 underlying NPATA 7.4% to $128.2m and EBITDA 8.2% to $273.3m despite revenue falling 4.7% to $2.9bn on a Defence contract change, with Work in Hand up 2.5% to $21.1bn. Upsizes its buyback to $300m and lifts the interim dividend 9.8% to 11.76cps, now 100% franked (VNT)

• Look at commodities go: Chinese lithium futures opened flattish last Friday, but trended higher to close the session 4.1% higher to 158,680 yuan a tonne. This drove a strong response for local names like PLS Group (+4.9%) and Liontown (+5.3%). Meanwhile, commodities like gold (+1.86%), aluminium (+1.80%), copper (+1.50%), silver (+1.31%) and more traded broadly higher overnight. This drove a strong response for mining equities, with US-listed ETFs like Rare Earths/Strategic Metals (+6.6%), Copper Miners (+5.1%), Uranium (+5.0%), Nickel Miners (+3.6%), Gold Miners (+2.9%) and Steel (+2.2%) posting outsized gains relative to the underlying commodity. It's a good time to be a commodities bull, and almost everything across the commodity complex is moving higher.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 24 Aug: Bravura Solutions (BVS) – $0.15, Hansen Technologies (HSN) – $0.05, Insurance Australia Group (IAG) – $0.20, QBE Insurance Group (QBE) – $0.33, Santos (STO) – $0.163

• Tue 25 Aug: AGL Energy (AGL) – $0.26, Amotiv (AOV) – $0.23, Bega Cheese (BGA) – $0.075, Boom Logistics (BOL) – $0.022, Challenger (CGF) – $0.175, Deterra Royalties (DRR) – $0.108, Eureka Group Holdings (EGH) – $0.007, MA Financial Group (MAF) – $0.08, REDOX (RDX) – $0.065, Vicinity Centres (VCX) – $0.062

• Wed 26 Aug: Bell Financial Group (BFG) – $0.05, Maxiparts (MXI) – $0.055, Ooh!Media (OML) – $0.02, Telstra Group (TLS) – $0.105, The Lottery Corporation (TLC) – $0.085

• Thu 27 Aug: Australian United Investment Company (AUI) – $0.28, Cuscal (CCL) – $0.07, Ebos Group (EBO) – $0.448, Heartland Group Holdings (HGH) – $0.029, Ignite (IGN) – $0.03, IPH (IPH) – $0.195, JB Hi-Fi (JBH) – $1.27, MLG OZ (MLG) – $0.013, REA Group (REA) – $1.73, SRG Global (SRG) – $0.04

• Fri 28 Aug: Beach Energy (BPT) – $0.02, Fiducian Group (FID) – $0.282, Iress (IRE) – $0.14, Orora (ORA) – $0.04, Shape Australia Corporation (SHA) – $0.18

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

• Earnings: Acrow (ACF), hipages Group (HPG), Horizon Oil (HZN), Infotrust (ITS), Integrated Research (IRI), Kogan.com (KGN), Liberty Financial Group (LFG), Lindsay Australia (LAU), Maggie Beer Holdings (MBH), Mitchell Services (MSV), Monash IVF Group (MVF), Myeco Group (MCO), Navigator Global Investments (NGI), NIB Holdings (NHF), Novonix (NVX), Nuix (NXL), Orbital Corporation (OEC), Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR), Perenti (PRN), PLS Group (PLS), RAM Essential Services Property Fund (REP), Reece (REH), Regal Partners (RPL), Regis Healthcare (REG), Rent.com.au (RNT), Stanmore Resources (SMR), Supply Network (SNL),  Ventia Services Group (VNT), Vysarn (VYS)

• IPOs: Whiterock Lithium (WLC) at 1:00 pm

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

No major economic announcements.