Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 lower as Nvidia dips 5%

ASX 200 futures are up 9 pts (+0.09%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mixed after Nvidia tumbled 5.4% despite reporting stronger-than-expected 4Q26 earnings and a guidance beat

• Software continues to bounce as the "long semis and short software" trade begins to unravel

• US 30-year fixed mortgage rate falls below 6% for the first time since 2022 amid a sustained decline in Treasury yields

• Lots of rare earth headlines floating around semis, aerospace and chip sectors struggling for supply

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Fri 27 Feb 26, 8:21am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	6,909	-0.54%
Dow Jones	49,499	+0.03%
NASDAQ Comp	22,878	-1.18%
Russell 2000	2,679	+0.58%
Country Indices
Canada	34,502	+1.10%
China	4,147	-0.01%
Germany	25,289	+0.45%
Hong Kong	26,381	-1.44%
India	82,249	-0.03%
Japan	58,753	+0.29%
United Kingdom	10,847	+0.37%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	5,195.43	+0.59%
Copper	5.97	-0.21%
WTI Oil	65.46	+0.16%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.7111	-0.18%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	67,433	-2.51%
Ethereum (AUD)	2,852	-2.19%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.017	-0.77%
VIX	18.63	+3.91%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher, closed slightly off best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished mixed but off worst levels

• S&P 500 (-0.54%) bounced off session lows (-1.24%), continues recent rangebound action

• Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.56%) outperformed the official benchmark by 110 bps, closed at fresh all-time highs amid strength across software, financials and energy

• Software stocks continued to bounce, iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF up 2.1%, now up 7.3% in the last three sessions despite mixed results from names like Salesforce and Snowflake

• Rotation underway within tech (long semis vs. short software trade starting to turn), banks and cyclicals also bounced after recent softness

• Nvidia's post-earnings "sell-the-news" reaction dragged the Nasdaq lower, investors questioned sustainability of hyperscaler AI capex rather than celebrate a record beat (YF)

• Chip/semis stocks broadly sold off in sympathy with Nvidia, AI capex debate intensifies (CNBC)

• US 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 5.98%, below 6% for the first time since September 2022, tracking a sustained decline in Treasury yields since early February (YF)

• S&P 500 approaching top of near-term 6,800–7,000 trading range as bulls struggle to hold ground, Goldman Sachs launched new "AI-ex" S&P 500 index for clients as interest grows in HALO (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) stocks (SWB)

• Global debt hit record $348tn in 2025, largest increase since pandemic (FT)

STOCKS

• Nvidia Q4 FY26: Revenue up 73% to $68.13bn, 3% ahead of consensus,  EPS of $1.62 a 6% beat, Q1 FY27 guidance $78bn was 7% above ests. Data centre revenue up 75% to $62.3bn but stock fell 5% as investors questioned AI capex durability despite what Morgan Stanley called the "largest, cleanest beat in semis history" (CNBC)

• Jensen Huang declared the "agentic AI inflection point has arrived," shipping first Vera Rubin GPU samples to customers this week (F)

• Nvidia's stalling $100bn deal with OpenAI cited as an additional headwind weighing on market sentiment post-earnings (CNBC)

• Big Tech likely to borrow hundreds of billions of dollars over coming years to fuel AI data center projects (TI)

• Amazon's $50bn investment in OpenAI could reportedly be contingent on an IPO and AGI milestone (TI)

• Pentagon threatens to label Anthropic a "supply chain risk" unless given unrestricted access to its AI (AX)

• Global smartphone market set to contract 12.9% in 2026 due to memory chip shortage, according to IDC (BBG)

• AMD struck a $250m investment and partnership deal with Nutanix to co-develop an enterprise agentic AI platform(YF)

• Stellantis records first annual loss due to significant EV write downs (CNBC)

• Rolls-Royce projects robust profit growth and initiates share buyback program (CNBC)

TARIFFS & TRADE

• USTR Greer says Trump will sign order implementing 15% tariff "where appropriate" (BBG)

• Beijing warns over US probe into 2020 trade deal, says will respond if new tariffs imposed (BBG)

• Rare earth shortages still causing problems for US semi and aerospace industries despite US-China trade truce (RT)

• US imposes steep tariffs on Indian solar imports, challenging 'make in India' initiative (BBG)

• Japan's rare earth import dependency on China rises despite lower overall volumes (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• ECB’s Lagarde testimony notes trade environment "remains challenging owing to higher tariffs, a stronger euro and persistently volatile global policy," but reaffirmed rates held at 2%, ECB sees Eurozone inflation at 1.7% in January (below 2% target for first time since Sep-24) (ECB)

• BOK maintains benchmark rate, signaling balanced economic outlook and upgraded forecasts (BBG)

• BoE signals dovish shift, paving way for potential March interest rate cut (FT)

GEOPOLITICS

• US-Iran 3rd round of indirect nuclear talks concluded in Geneva on Feb 26; Iran FM Araghchi said both sides are "closer than ever" and "more serious" about reaching a settlement; 4th round scheduled for Vienna on Monday (AJ)

• US and Iran agree to hold an additional round of nuclear talks next week in Vienna (THl)

ECONOMY

• US data centre construction growth slows amid permitting, power procurement delays (BBG)

• China's holiday spending surge suggests limited need for broad consumer stimulus (CNBC)

• UK inflation expectations dip in February, boosting case for BoE rate cut (RT)

• US crude inventories surged ~16mn barrels in the largest weekly build of 2026, adding downward pressure on oil prices already sensitive to Iran deal progress (RT)

ASX TODAY

At last, the end February reporting season. Only a handful of companies are due to report today, including Coles, Harvey Norman and Virgin. I hope the blog coverage has added some value and insight over this absolutely chokkas period for markets. This section will return to normal next week.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Gold: VanEck Gold Miners ETF up 2.4% overnight, surpassing 30-Jan high to close at fresh all-time highs. This is despite gold edging 0.4% higher to US$5,186 and still ~4.5% away from late-Jan record highs.

• A quiet lead in: Overall, a rather quiet overnight lead in. Reaction to Nvidia is part of a broader theme of growing investor skepticism about AI growth trends and capex. Seeing a return for software, financials and other cyclical pockets of the market.

BROKER MOVES

• Domino’s Pizza downgraded to Sell from Neutral; target cut to $19 from $19.90 (GS)

• Super Retail Group upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target up to $17.85 from $15.70 (MQG)

• Worley downgraded to Hold from Buy; target cut to $12.20 from $16.40 (MORG)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 27 Feb: AMP (AMP) – $0.02, Argo Global Listed Infrastructure (ALI) – $0.045, Australian United Investment Company (AUI) – $0.17, Carlton Investments (CIN) – $0.47, Centrepoint Alliance (CAF) – $0.013, Count (CUP) – $0.02, Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI) – $0.068, Diversified United Investment (DUI) – $0.07, Eureka Group Holdings (EGH) – $0.007, Fiducian Group (FID) – $0.255, Ingenia Communities Group (INA) – $0.048, Lendlease Group (LLC) – $0.062, MA Credit Income Trust (MA1) – $0.013, Metrics Income Opportunities Trust (MOT) – $0.009, Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT) – $0.012, Metrics Real Estate Multi-Strategy Fund (MRE) – $0.007, Orora (ORA) – $0.05, Pengana International Equities (PIA) – $0.014, Prime Financial Group (PFG) – $0.008

• Mon 2 Mar: Amotiv (AOV) – $0.20, Aurizon Holdings (AZJ) – $0.125, Fortescue (FMG) – $0.62, GR Engineering Services (GNG) – $0.12, Helloworld Travel (HLO) – $0.05, L1 Long Short Fund (LSF) – $0.036, Newmont Corporation (NEM) – $0.258, Nick Scali (NCK) – $0.39, Origin Energy (ORG) – $0.30, Pengana Global Private Credit Trust (PCX) – $0.013, Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI) – $0.29, PWR Holdings (PWH) – $0.03, Regal Partners (RPL) – $0.15, Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC) – $0.028, Revolution Private Credit Income Trust (REV) – $0.012, Steadfast Group (SDF) – $0.082, Tabcorp Holdings (TAH) – $0.015, Wotso (WOT) – $0.014

• Tue 3 Mar: Accent Group (AX1) – $0.033, Ashley Services Group (ASH) – $0.014, Bell Financial Group (BFG) – $0.065, Cuscal (CCL) – $0.045, Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP) – $0.25, Downer Edi (DOW) – $0.129, Embark Early Education (EVO) – $0.015, Evolution Mining (EVN) – $0.20, HMC Capital (HMC) – $0.06, Ironbark Balanced Income (IBC) – $0.013, Jumbo Interactive (JIN) – $0.12, Propel Funeral Partners (PFP) – $0.075, Qualitas (QAL) – $0.035, QUBE Holdings (QUB) – $0.053, Quickfee (QFE) – $0.005, REA Group (REA) – $1.24, Redox (RDX) – $0.065, Sims (SGM) – $0.14

• Wed 4 Mar: EVT (EVT) – $0.18, Integral Diagnostics (IDX) – $0.033, Mercury NZ (MCY) – $0.085, Netwealth Group (NWL) – $0.21, Northern Star Resources (NST) – $0.25, Pacific Current Group (PAC) – $0.20, Servcorp (SRV) – $0.16, SGH (SGH) – $0.32, Solvar (SVR) – $0.085, Sonic Healthcare (SHL) – $0.45, TPC Consolidated (TPC) – $0.20, Woolworths Group (WOW) – $0.45

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Abacus Group (ABG), Abacus Storage King (ASK), Aspen Group (APZ), BWP Group (BWP), Carindale Property Trust (CDP), Charter Hall Group (CHC), Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR), Dexus (DXS), GDI Property Group (GDI), GPT Group (GPT), Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ), LDR Capital Property Fund (LED), Scentre Group (SCG), Stockland (SGP)

• Earnings: Bathurst Resources (BRL), Betmakers Technology Group (BET), Coles Group (COL), Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN), Jupiter Mines (JMS), Kina Securities (KSL), Michael Hill International (MHJ), PEXA Group (PXA), Somnomed (SOM), TPG Telecom (TPG), Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 9:30 pm: India GDP

• 12:00 am: Germany inflation

• 12:30 am: Canada GDP

• 12:30 am: US PPI