The ASX 200 surged to a five-week high as President Trump pulled back from threatened military strikes against Iran and pointed to a potential peace deal as early as the weekend. This sent oil to a two-month low and released the handbrake on global economic growth expectations. The rally swept up gold stocks, miners, banks, and real estate.
Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.
Let’s dive in!
Today in Review
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Major Indices | ||
| ASX 200 | 8,804.0 | +1.98% |
| All Ords | 9,006.1 | +1.92% |
| Small Ords | 3,462.9 | +2.13% |
| All Tech | 2,942.2 | +0.34% |
| Emerging Companies | 2,948.2 | +2.95% |
Currency | ||
| AUD/USD | 0.7025 | -0.35% |
US Futures | ||
| S&P 500 | 7,378.5 | -0.24% |
| Dow Jones | 50,852.0 | -0.05% |
| Nasdaq | 29,286.75 | -0.60% |
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Sector | ||
| Materials | 24,679.2 | +4.06% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 3,809.1 | +2.05% |
| Real Estate | 3,709.8 | +1.82% |
| Financials | 9,089.0 | +1.61% |
| Industrials | 8,460.2 | +1.44% |
| Utilities | 10,031.8 | +1.07% |
| Consumer Staples | 12,921.4 | +0.79% |
| Information Technology | 1,821.9 | +0.54% |
| Health Care | 24,001.8 | +0.08% |
| Communication Services | 1,665.0 | -0.29% |
| Energy | 10,566.5 | -0.46% |
ASX 200 Intraday Chart
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Markets
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 170.8 points higher at 8,804.0, 2.0% from its session low and smack–bang on its session high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a convincing 220 to 65. Monster session!
For the week, the XJO finished up 171 points or 2.0% higher, smack-bang on its weekly high. Monster week! (ALL today)
The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+5.7%) delivered the session's most dramatic sector reversal — a sector that had shed 14% across the prior five sessions snapped back with ferocity as COMEX gold futures gained 2.1% to US$4,200/oz and COMEX silver futures surged 4.1% to US$66.62/oz.
Precious metals are exquisitely sensitive to the combination of benchmark bond yields and the US dollar — both of which plunged overnight as peace deal optimism drained inflation expectations from the market. The US 10-year Treasury yield tumbled 10 basis points and the US Dollar Index fell to 94.5 from near 100 earlier in the week.
Investors rushed to scoop up what appeared to be bargains after weeks of punishing selling. Genesis Minerals (GMD) (+10.8%), Black Cat Syndicate (BC8) (+9.8%), Pantoro Gold (PNR) (+9.6%), Evolution Mining (EVN) (+7.3%), Northern Star Resources (NST) (+5.1%), and Newmont (NEM) (+4.0%) all surged.
Materials (XMJ) (+4.1%) posted its biggest single-day gain in 14 months in what could be a structural turning point. Why? Those lower benchmark yields help act as a releasing of the handbrake on global economic growth as they reduce the cost of capital for all businesses. Add in a weaker US dollar, which directly lifts commodity prices since most major commodities are priced in the currency — making them cheaper for non-US buyers.
COMEX copper futures gained 1.9% to US$6.392/lb, helping Sandfire Resources (SFR) (+8.1%) BHP (BHP) (+3.5%), South32 (S32) (+3.4%) and Rio Tinto (RIO) (+2.4%), as Fortescue (FMG) (+3.1%), and building products manufacturer James Hardie Industries (JHX) (+6.1%) also gained ground.
GFEX Lithium carbonate futures Sep-26
Lithium stocks extended their recent commodity-price led recovery for a third consecutive session as GFEX lithium carbonate futures gained a 3.0% to CNY 176,560/t — rising in five of the last six sessions for a cumulative gain of 12.3%.
Elevra Lithium (ELV) (+12.5%), Develop Global (DVP) (+10.4%), Liontown Resources (LTR) (+9.8%), Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (+9.8%), Core Lithium (CXO) (+7.7%), Mineral Resources (MIN) (+4.6%), and IGO (IGO) (+3.9%) all surged.
Uranium stocks also logged their first gain in four sessions — Deep Yellow (DYL) (+4.0%), Paladin Energy (PDN) (+3.6%), Bannerman Energy (BMN) (+2.6%), and NexGen Energy (NXG) (+1.3%) all advanced.
Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+2.0%) was the logical next beneficiary of falling benchmark bond yields — most consumer lending rates are linked to those yields, and any sustained decline stokes expectations of looser household budgets down the track. Lovisa (LOV) (+3.6%), Temple & Webster (TPW) (+3.5%), Nick Scali (NCK) (+2.7%), and Wesfarmers (WES) (+2.6%) all gained.
Real Estate (XPJ) (+1.8%) and Utilities (XUJ) (+1.1%) were both carried by the bond yield retreat — as bond-proxy sectors, their income streams become relatively more attractive when risk-free rates fall. Lendlease (LLC) (+4.7%), Stockland (SGP) (+3.2%), Charter Hall (CHC) (+3.0%), and Goodman Group (GMG) (+2.2%) led Real Estate. Origin Energy (ORG) (+1.6%), AGL Energy (AGL) (+0.7%), and APA Group (APA) (+0.6%) were the Utilities movers.
Financials (XFJ) (+1.6%) rebounded from a week of heavy selling, buoyed by the bond yield retreat and relief that the Iran peace deal narrative reduces the risk of further RBA hikes. All four major banks gained, with National Australia Bank (NAB) (+2.3%) and Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (+2.0%) leading, alongside Westpac (WBC) (+1.4%) and ANZ (ANZ) (+1.0%).
The rebound came despite a pointed Morgan Stanley warning that Westpac's consumer mortgage volumes had averaged 27,000 per month since the federal budget — 23% below December-quarter levels — with the bank forecasting mortgage growth to ease to 3.5% in FY27 from 7.5% in FY26.
Information Technology (XIJ) (+0.5%) was the session's most confusing performer — the Nasdaq surged overnight yet local tech barely moved. The sector's modest gain despite a significant positive offshore lead may signal that the recent heavy selling has left investors cautious about re-entering at current levels. Siteminder (SDR) (+7.8%), Elsight (ELS) (+5.4%), Life360 (360) (+2.2%), and WiseTech Global (WTC) (+1.4%) were the only meaningful contributors to the upside.
Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+0.8%) gave up its status as the primary defensive refuge as capital rotated back into cyclicals — the sector still finished positive, but decidedly out of fashion after its recent starring run. Endeavour Group (EDV) (+1.9%) and Woolworths (WOW) (+0.6%) edged higher while Coles (COL) (-0.4%) slipped as buyers moved on to more exciting alternatives.
Health Care (XHJ) (+0.1%) was near-flat — its streak of strong defensive gains paused as risk appetite returned and capital flowed back to materials and growth names. Ramsay Health Care (RHC) (+1.8%) and CSL (CSL) (+0.3%) both gained modestly, while Pro Medicus (PME) (+0.7%) also edged higher.
Energy (XEJ) (-0.5%) was the session's standout laggard — a counterintuitive result given the broad market rally, but entirely logical: the sector's recent gains were built on elevated oil prices, and a potential Hormuz reopening is precisely the scenario that unwinds that trade. ICE Brent crude futures fell 2.3% to US$88.24/bbl. Viva Energy (VEA) (-3.4%), Karoon Energy (KAR) (-1.0%), and Woodside Energy (WDS) (-0.9%) all fell.
Communication Services (XTJ) (-0.3%) was the other sector to finish lower without a clear new fundamental driver — News Corp. (NWS) (-4.3%) and REA Group (REA) (-2.8%) were the primary drags, while Telstra (TLS) was flat.
Today's best ASX Top 300 gainers
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minerals 260 (MI6) | $0.86 | +$0.11 | +14.7% | +6.8% | +537.0% |
| Elevra Lithium (ELV) | $11.98 | +$1.33 | +12.5% | -12.8% | +399.2% |
| Genesis Minerals (GMD) | $5.32 | +$0.52 | +10.8% | -13.4% | +12.0% |
| Develop Global (DVP) | $6.92 | +$0.65 | +10.4% | +11.8% | +51.1% |
| The a2 Milk Company (A2M) | $6.06 | +$0.56 | +10.2% | -7.1% | -25.8% |
| Liontown (LTR) | $2.18 | +$0.195 | +9.8% | -11.4% | +215.9% |
| PLS Group (PLS) | $6.52 | +$0.58 | +9.8% | +3.8% | +386.6% |
| Pantoro Gold (PNR) | $2.52 | +$0.22 | +9.6% | -26.1% | -31.1% |
| Zip Co (ZIP) | $2.66 | +$0.23 | +9.5% | +2.3% | -0.7% |
| Bellevue Gold (BGL) | $1.345 | +$0.115 | +9.4% | -16.2% | +45.4% |
| EQ Resources (EQR) | $0.235 | +$0.02 | +9.3% | -11.3% | +571.4% |
| Imdex (IMD) | $4.02 | +$0.33 | +8.9% | 0.0% | +46.2% |
| Emerald Resources NL (EMR) | $5.36 | +$0.43 | +8.7% | -7.3% | +20.7% |
| Ora Banda Mining (OBM) | $1.105 | +$0.085 | +8.3% | -17.8% | +8.9% |
| Sandfire Resources (SFR) | $19.83 | +$1.48 | +8.1% | +7.0% | +73.6% |
| SiteMinder (SDR) | $3.74 | +$0.27 | +7.8% | +18.7% | -22.2% |
| Core Lithium (CXO) | $0.28 | +$0.02 | +7.7% | -18.8% | +204.3% |
| Lindian Resources (LIN) | $0.91 | +$0.065 | +7.7% | +19.0% | +628.0% |
| Evolution Mining (EVN) | $11.75 | +$0.80 | +7.3% | -9.3% | +34.7% |
| Predictive Discovery (PDI) | $0.785 | +$0.05 | +6.8% | -19.9% | +89.2% |
Today's worst ASX Top 300 losers
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Resources of Australia (ERA) | $0.002 | -$0.001 | -20.0% | -33.3% | -20.0% |
| News Corporation (NWS) | $42.30 | -$1.88 | -4.3% | -2.3% | -13.8% |
| Viva Energy Group (VEA) | $2.25 | -$0.08 | -3.4% | +2.7% | +13.6% |
| Digico Infrastructure REIT (DGT) | $2.44 | -$0.08 | -3.2% | -10.6% | -34.6% |
| REA Group (REA) | $143.00 | -$4.13 | -2.8% | -19.5% | -40.0% |
| HMC Capital (HMC) | $2.88 | -$0.07 | -2.4% | -7.4% | -39.2% |
| SKS Technologies Group (SKS) | $7.91 | -$0.18 | -2.2% | -5.2% | +365.3% |
| Tuas (TUA) | $2.64 | -$0.06 | -2.2% | -55.2% | -55.6% |
| Aussie Broadband (ABB) | $5.57 | -$0.12 | -2.1% | +5.5% | +38.6% |
| GenusPlus Group (GNP) | $10.26 | -$0.22 | -2.1% | +9.3% | +196.5% |
| Generation Development Group (GDG) | $3.82 | -$0.08 | -2.1% | +5.5% | -33.0% |
| Sigma Healthcare (SIG) | $2.64 | -$0.05 | -1.9% | -7.0% | -18.0% |
| Genesis Energy (GNE) | $2.13 | -$0.04 | -1.8% | +6.0% | +2.6% |
| Abacus Storage King (ASK) | $1.38 | -$0.025 | -1.8% | -2.5% | -11.8% |
| Tabcorp Holdings (TAH) | $0.835 | -$0.015 | -1.8% | +10.6% | +12.8% |
| AUB Group (AUB) | $28.42 | -$0.51 | -1.8% | +17.5% | -18.9% |
| Contact Energy (CEN) | $7.81 | -$0.13 | -1.6% | -3.7% | -6.4% |
| Catapult Sports (CAT) | $3.08 | -$0.05 | -1.6% | -7.8% | -49.3% |
| Steadfast Group (SDF) | $5.15 | -$0.08 | -1.5% | +26.5% | -13.3% |
| Cobram Estate Olives (CBO) | $3.92 | -$0.06 | -1.5% | +5.4% | +89.4% |
Chartwatch
Nasdaq Composite Index
Analysis
It feels like markets are going from dumb to dumber… 🤪
We are seeing total shenanigans on global markets!!!
Largely thanks to the Master of Shenanigans (You Know Who!).
But, whatever the reason for the third massive volatility candle out of the last four (check the OTR indicator 🧐) we now have an excellent line in the sand for the current Comp bull market.
Simply: As long as the Comp’s price continues to close above 24980, the current phase of the bull market is intact. If it does close below 27980 then it’s an equilibrium at best prospect… however, given the sharpness of the first leg of the decline from 27191 – I see that point as a formidable major point of supply going forward.
It was a stunning reversal in the demand-supply environment overnight and the above volume suggests decent demand-side engagement. FOMO? Yes. HOFU, generally (above average volume, remember?). BTD? Yes.
Benefit of the doubt required? Given the long term uptrend remains very much intact: Yes ✅
Granted, anything can happen here (particularly when dumb and dumber are in charge!)… But to be fair, I could say that during even the calmest (and sanest) of times. The Comp could print a new high and rally another 7,000 points by next Friday… or it could close below the long term uptrend ribbon. It’s that kind of environment.
So, for me… as suggested yesterday – balance is a nice thing to have. I hate being all out… the Comp is a beast… never count it out. But when I look at the move we had from 27191 – and how bad it looked after yesterday’s candle – I can’t be FRP either. ⚖️
View
1/2RP (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣).
Key levels
With 25701 consumed, 24199-2491 is the key zone of demand. The short term uptrend ribbon (presently 25724-26083) is now the key zone of supply. Beyond that, the all-time high of 27191.
S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)
%20chart_12%20Jun.png)
Analysis
OTP, don't get my hopes up... 😔
You do this all the time...
Solid candle... persistent demand... an inkling that the supply side is leaning towards a little HOFU...
So I get excited...
And say something like: "This is it people... this time it's for real... I can feel it!"
And the next session you get belted. 🤕
So, I am not going to say a thing tonight. 🙊
View
Balance. Must have balance! ⚖️
As a result of today's emphatic demand side candle, the close back above both trend ribbons – and within close proximity of the 8811 point of supply – I am going to move to 1/2RP 🪣 on the OTP (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is now 50%).
Key levels
8811 is the key point of supply. Beyond that, it's 8888 — one could argue: a wall of supply! Demand is the 8485.
(Glossary of acronyms! Old Tin Pot (OTP): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position)
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Economy
Today
There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today
Later this week
Friday
22:00 USA Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (46.6 forecast vs 48.2 previous)
Interesting Movers
Trading higher
- Osmond Resources (OSM) $0.55+22.2%
Announced a progress update at its Orión EU Critical Minerals Project in Spain, with drilling of SOR-07 and SOR-08 now underway targeting extensions of the high-grade area; the scoping study is on track for completion in Q3 calendar 2026.
- Magellan Financial (MFG) $9.52+5.2%
The ACCC cleared its merger with Barrenjoey to proceed as scheduled from early July; the combined entity also proposed changing its ASX ticker from MFG to BJY, subject to shareholder approval at the October annual meeting, as it unifies its investment management, corporate finance, fixed income, and equities businesses under a single brand.
- Monash IVF (MVF) $0.69+2.2%
Downgraded FY26 underlying net profit guidance to $17–18 million from $20 million previously — a 12.5% reduction at the midpoint — citing a 4.7% fall in stimulated cycle volumes across the Australian ART market in the three months to April, though cost-cutting measures are expected to contribute more significantly to earnings in FY27; the stock rose despite the downgrade.
- Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY) $2.42+1.3%
Chairman Philippe Etienne announced his retirement effective June 30, with Samantha Hogg appointed as his successor from July 1.
Trading Lower
- Vitrafy Life Sciences (VFY) $3.50-7.9%
Launched a $30 million institutional placement at $2.60 per share — a steep 32% discount to the prior close of $3.80 — with proceeds to fund manufacturing of Guardion devices and accelerate US operations and sales.
- Forrestania Resources (FRS) $0.48-5.0%
Acquired a 7% stake in Leeuwin Metals, which holds lithium, nickel, and rare earth exploration projects in Manitoba, Canada, and Western Australia; management did not disclose its rationale or future intentions regarding the stake.
- DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT) $2.44-3.2%
Entered a conditional agreement to sell its LAX1 and LAX2 Los Angeles sites at broadly the acquisition price, consistent with its strategy to recycle capital from non-core assets into its higher-returning SYD1 Sydney development; following the LA and Chicago sales, available liquidity will increase to approximately $1 billion; FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance of $125 million was reaffirmed.
- Woodside Energy (WDS) $31.23-0.9%
Exercised its right to pre-empt the sale of PetroChina's 10.67% stake in the Browse joint venture to Inpex, acquiring the interest itself for US$225 million plus reimbursed cash calls and up to US$175 million contingent on a final investment decision by 2032, lifting its Browse stake to 41.27%.
Broker Moves
Company | Broker | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
A4NAlpha HPA | Macquarie | Retained | Outperform | $1.05(from $1.41) |
| Ord Minnett | Initiated | Speculative Buy | $0.90 | |
ABGAbacus Group | Citi | Retained | Buy | $1.30(from $1.40) |
AMAAma Group | Bell Potter | Retained | Buy | $1.00(from $1.10) |
APZAspen Group | Citi | Retained | Buy | $5.40 |
ARBARB Corporation | Citi | Retained | Neutral | $17.40 |
AUEAurum Resource | Bell Potter | Retained | Speculative Buy | $1.50(from $1.30) |
| Canaccord Genuity | Retained | Speculative Buy | $1.80(from $1.55) | |
AZJAurizon Holdings | Macquarie | Retained | Neutral | $4.00(from $3.91) |
BREBrazilian Rare Earths | Ord Minnett | Upgraded | Speculative Buy(from Hold) | $6.95 |
BXBBrambles | Citi | Retained | Buy | $22.80(from $23.55) |
FALFalcon Metals | Bell Potter | Initiated | Speculative Buy | $1.10 |
GMGGoodman Group | Citi | Retained | Buy | $40.00 |
LLCLendLease Group | Citi | Retained | Buy | $4.50(from $6.30) |
| Ord Minnett | Retained | Hold | $2.85 | |
MEIMeteoric Resources NL | Ord Minnett | Retained | Speculative Buy | $0.25 |
NCKNick Scali | Morgans | Initiated | Buy | $17.84 |
PNCPioneer Credit | Shaw and Partners | Retained | Buy | $1.00 |
REAREA Group | Citi | Retained | Buy | $181.15(from $201.00) |
SDFSteadfast Group | Jarden | Retained | Overweight | $5.90(from $5.65) |
SHVSelect Harvests | Bell Potter | Retained | Buy | $5.30 |
SIQSmartgroup Corporation | CLSA | Downgraded | Hold(from Outperform) | $12.00(from $10.15) |
SLSSolstice Minerals | Canaccord Genuity | Retained | Speculative Buy | $1.85 |
SULSuper Retail Group | Citi | Retained | Buy | $14.20 |
| E&P | Retained | Neutral | $13.84(from $13.80) | |
| Goldman Sachs | Retained | Buy | $15.40(from $15.20) | |
| Macquarie | Retained | Outperform | $15.90(from $15.50) | |
| Morgan Stanley | Retained | Underweight | $11.20(from $10.90) | |
| RBC Capital Markets | Retained | Outperform | $15.70(from $15.50) | |
TCLTransurban Group | Jarden | Upgraded | Overweight(from Neutral) | $13.10(from $12.90) |
WBCWestpac Banking Corporation | CLSA | Retained | Hold | $31.50 |
| Jefferies | Retained | Hold | $34.70 | |
| JPMorgan | Retained | Underweight | $34.00(from $35.30) | |
| Morgan Stanley | Retained | Underweight | $31.50 | |
| UBS | Retained | Neutral | $40.00 | |
WTMWaratah Minerals | Bell Potter | Retained | Speculative Buy | $1.05 |
Scans
Top Gainers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| ENN | Elanor Investors Group | $0.057 | +35.71% |
| IXC | INVEX Therapeutics Ltd | $0.12 | +31.87% |
| PKY | Pathkey.Ai Ltd | $0.054 | +25.58% |
| FRB | Firebird Metals Ltd | $0.185 | +23.33% |
| OSM | Osmond Resources Ltd | $0.55 | +22.22% |
Top Fallers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAP | Microba Life Sciences Ltd | $0.046 | -26.98% |
| ABE | Australian Bond Exchange Holdings Ltd | $0.011 | -26.67% |
| AVD | Avada Group Ltd | $0.13 | -25.71% |
| VTX | Vertex Minerals Ltd | $0.105 | -16.00% |
| USC | US1 Critical Minerals Ltd | $0.016 | -15.79% |
52 Week Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| MOON | Global X Space Tech ETF | $54.60 | +12.55% |
| DVP | Develop Global Ltd | $6.92 | +10.37% |
| BST | Boresight Ltd | $0.595 | +9.17% |
| AII | Almonty Industries Inc | $23.98 | +8.36% |
| SLM | Solis Minerals Ltd | $0.13 | +8.33% |
52 Week Lows
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAP | Microba Life Sciences Ltd | $0.046 | -26.98% |
| ABE | Australian Bond Exchange Holdings Ltd | $0.011 | -26.67% |
| VTX | Vertex Minerals Ltd | $0.105 | -16.00% |
| BKT | Black Rock Mining Ltd | $0.012 | -14.29% |
| GTI | Gratifii Ltd | $0.032 | -13.51% |
Near Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| WVOL | iShares MSCI World Ex Aust Minimum Volatility ETF | $45.18 | +0.13% |
| EGH | Eureka Group Holdings Ltd | $0.595 | 0.00% |
| VVLU | Vanguard Global Value Equity Active ETF | $82.19 | +0.97% |
| IHD | iShares S&P/ASX DIV Opportunities Esg Screened ETF | $17.43 | +1.22% |
| AYLD | Global X S&P/ASX 200 Covered Call Complex ETF | $10.41 | +0.48% |
Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| WBCPJ | Westpac Banking Corporation | $100.88 | -0.09% |
| LOT | Lotus Resources Ltd | $0.52 | +2.97% |
| FLG | Flagship Minerals Ltd | $0.185 | 0.00% |
| FAR | FAR Ltd | $0.285 | 0.00% |
| WHF | Whitefield Industrials Ltd | $4.52 | +0.22% |
