Insider Trades: Directors are buying shares in these 13 ASX 200 companies

Welcome back to the Insider Trades Series – A weekly summary of on-market ASX 200 director transactions valued at more than $10,000.

The trades have all taken place between 29 February and 7 March 2024. Directors have up to 5 business days to notify the ASX of their trades. Surprisingly, all the buys are from Non-Executive Directors.

The >$100,000 Buys

Treasury Wine hasn't seen an insider buy this big since September 2016. The stock is trading near 10 month highs after reporting a first-half result (15 Feb) that was largely in-line with market expectations. The removal of China's tariffs was highlighted as a key catalyst for future growth, with several analysts noting that TWE is well-prepared to re-establish its Australian wine sales in China. The Penfolds brand has maintained its appeal with Chinese consumers, ranking second in awareness among the top 10 imported wines. Post earnings, the average target price for TWE rose 1.2% to $13.17.

Treasury Wine 6-month price chart (Source: Market Index)

Scentre Group shares have rallied almost 40% since late October 2023, riding the tailwinds of falling bond yields. The $318,950 on-market buy from Ilana Atlas marks the largest buy since 2015. The company reported its full-year result on 21 February, where funds from operations (FFO) came in at the top end of its 20.75 to 21.25 cents per share guidance. The company provided FY24 FFO guidance for the first time (21.75 to 22.25 cents per share) and 2% ahead of Macquarie expectations. "FY24 FFO guidance was ahead of our expectations, with leasing and net property income proving to be more resilient," the analysts said. Macquarie upgraded Scentre Group to Neutral (from Underperform) with a $3.03 target price on 21 February.

Scentre Group 6-month price chart (Source: Market Index)

Charter Hall was one of Morgan Stanley's top value picks back in October 2023. "But picking the bottom is made challenging by how macro-driven the stock has been. The correlation between 10yr bond yields and the CHC group P/E is -0.75 ... so one might have to wait for the long end of the rate curve to ease before the stock bounces back in a sustainable manner," the analyst said in a note dated 4 October 2023. On 23 October 2023, the US 10-year yield peaked and few days later, so did Charter Hall. The stock is now up a little over 50% since late October 2023. The latest note (Macquarie 21 Feb) said "we believe operational metrics are at or approaching cyclical lows with FY24 being the trough earnings year." The analysts retained an Outperform rating with a $12.90 target price.

Charter Hall 6-month price chart (Source: Market Index)

Top ASX 200 Director Buys

The Lone Sell 

Santos Chief Executive Kevin Gallagher has been an active post-results seller since early 2020 – Where he’s logged 7 selldowns, averaging $2.24 million each. There isn’t really much to see here.

Santos delivered a weaker than expected half-year result last month, with profits weighed by elevated operating costs (pipeline tariffs, royalties, LNG plant costs etc.) and non-operating costs. Despite the soft profit, Santos declared a final 17.5 US cents per share dividend, which was 70% above consensus expectations. Most analysts remain buy-rated on the stock and generally impressed with the resilience of the business.

“We expect 2024 to be the trough for STO production and earnings as Barossa and Pikka start up over 2025-2026 and support a ~10% production CAGR over the next 3 years, offsetting the impact from softening global gas prices as the LNG market moves back into material oversupply,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note dated 22 February.

Santos 6-month price chart (Source: Market Index)