Market Wraps

Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dragged lower by technology and resources as lithium, uranium and copper stocks crumble

Tue 26 Mar 24, 5:57pm (AEST)

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 31.7 points lower, down -0.41%.

A disappointing result given our proximity to the all-time high at yesterday's close. Just the gold, energy, and staples sectors ended in the black today.

Rising market rates in the US are generally to blame for today's underperformance. Investors appear to be paring back last week's euphoria around the US Fed's "3 rate cuts in 2024" scenario. This helped the tech and telecom stocks to last and second last place on the sector losses table. These stocks tend to get hit the hardest at the slightest whiff of higher interest rates.

Resources companies continued their recent struggles and were responsible for many of the worst individual performances today. Lithium, uranium, and copper stocks were particularly harshly dealt with – partly on underlying commodity price moves, but also on company announcements and broker downgrades.

For coverage of all the above and more...

Let’s dive in!


Today in Review

Tue 26 Mar 24, 4:27pm (AEST)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
ASX 200 7,780.2 -0.41%
All Ords 8,036.7 -0.43%
Small Ords 3,070.1 -0.07%
All Tech 3,083.3 -1.15%
Emerging Companies 2,115.0 +0.25%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6539 -0.01%
US Futures
S&P 500 5,285.5 +0.14%
Dow Jones 39,729.0 +0.08%
Nasdaq 18,543.0 +0.16%
Name Value % Chg
Sector
Energy 10,646.8 +0.50%
Consumer Staples 12,104.9 +0.23%
Utilities 8,193.0 -0.07%
Financials 7,387.6 -0.22%
Consumer Discretionary 3,567.2 -0.23%
Health Care 42,677.6 -0.32%
Industrials 7,018.4 -0.45%
Real Estate 3,768.2 -0.72%
Materials 17,592.6 -0.73%
Communication Services 1,553.9 -0.99%
Information Technology 2,280.1 -1.55%

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Markets

S&P ASX 200 (XJO) Intraday Chart 26 Mar 2024
ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished points lower at 7780.2 , 0.41% from its session high and just 0.06% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by 108 to 155.

The Gold (XGD) (+0.82%) sub-index was the best performing sector today, likely in response to a modest gain in the gold price overnight. Also doing well today was the Energy (XEJ) (+0.50%) sector which was boosted by a similar gain in the crude oil price. I'll review interesting gold chart and one interesting energy chart in today's ChartWatch.

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

Karoon Energy (KAR)

$2.10

+$0.12

+6.1%

+11.7%

+4.0%

Cooper Energy (COE)

$0.200

+$0.01

+5.3%

+33.3%

+33.3%

Regis Resources (RRL)

$1.920

+$0.055

+2.9%

+5.5%

+6.1%

De Grey Mining (DEG)

$1.230

+$0.035

+2.9%

-2.8%

-21.9%

Beach Energy (BPT)

$1.785

+$0.05

+2.9%

+8.2%

+34.2%

Capricorn Metals (CMM)

$5.13

+$0.14

+2.8%

+13.0%

+12.3%

Gold Road Resources (GOR)

$1.580

+$0.04

+2.6%

+5.7%

+0.3%

Perseus Mining (PRU)

$2.09

+$0.04

+2.0%

+22.6%

-6.7%

Northern Star Resources (NST)

$13.93

+$0.22

+1.6%

+7.8%

+21.8%

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

$1.770

+$0.025

+1.4%

+27.8%

+58.7%

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

$30.37

+$0.29

+1.0%

+1.2%

-6.8%

The best performing stocks from the Gold and Energy sectors today

Doing it tough today was the Information Technology (XIJ) (-1.6%) sector, but the Communication Services (XTJ) (-1.0%) sector wasn’t great either. There’s a great deal of overlap between the two. Rising market rates are likely to blamer for the underperformance here.

Whilst the Resources (XJR) (-0.72%) sector wasn't the worst today, it was responsible for some of the worst individual performances. Particularly harshly treated today were lithium, uranium, and copper plays.

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

29METALS (29M)

$0.400

-$0.14

-25.9%

+14.3%

-62.9%

Ioneer (INR)

$0.160

-$0.015

-8.6%

+18.5%

-41.8%

Wildcat Resources (WC8)

$0.630

-$0.045

-6.7%

-0.8%

+2150.0%

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

$8.43

-$0.44

-5.0%

+11.5%

+45.1%

Syrah Resources (SYR)

$0.490

-$0.025

-4.9%

-18.1%

-68.0%

Lotus Resources (LOT)

$0.400

-$0.02

-4.8%

+23.1%

+150.0%

Pantoro (PNR)

$0.061

-$0.003

-4.7%

+52.5%

-9.0%

Chalice Mining (CHN)

$1.030

-$0.045

-4.2%

0%

-83.8%

Iluka Resources (ILU)

$7.00

-$0.27

-3.7%

+0.7%

-30.0%

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

$3.74

-$0.14

-3.6%

-3.6%

+9.0%

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

$5.59

-$0.19

-3.3%

-5.3%

-11.1%

Mineral Resources (MIN)

$67.73

-$1.97

-2.8%

+5.8%

-11.7%

Piedmont Lithium Inc (PLL)

$0.180

-$0.005

-2.7%

-7.7%

-76.6%

Liontown Resources (LTR)

$1.140

-$0.03

-2.6%

-2.1%

-30.9%

Particularly harshly treated today were lithium, uranium and copper plays

Lithium stocks were belted on the back of a 6% plunge in benchmark July lithium carbonate futures yesterday, as reported in Monday's Evening's Wrap. Uranium plays were perhaps a little hard done by in comparison given the very modest 0.5% dip in the uranium price overnight.

Copper stocks were hobbled by a combination of 29Metals (29M) (-25.9%) closure of their Capricorn mine due to an "extended period of rainfall", while sector leader Sandfire Resources (SFR) (-5.0%) copped a downgrade to sell by major broker Citi, who said the stock "now looks fully valued".


ChartWatch

Perseus Mining (ASX: PRU)

Perseus Mining (PRU)
Perseus' long term trend appears to be switching back to up

PRU is showing a well-established short term uptrend and a long term trend which appears to be about to transition back to up.

The price action recently has compressed, but is still showing rising peaks and rising troughs. Consolidations like this are customary around previous historical points of supply, in this case there's likely some influence from the major peak at 2.05.

I like to look at the price action that occurred prior to a consolidation, in this case, it is a very strong move from February's low. This tells me there is significant excess demand lurking in the system.

Short term supply is working in the market, causing the current consolidation, but a close above 2.14 would signal it likely has been overcome. I place a higher probability on this scenario given the prevalence of white candles which are usually a good indicator of accumulation.

The next major historical point of supply after 2.14 is the April 2023 high of 2.51. Demand resides at 1.98. The short term uptrend is intact while PRU continues to close above this price.

Karoon Energy (ASX: KAR)

Karoon Energy (ASX-KAR)
The close above Karoon's long term trend ribbon is important

KAR's short term uptrend is nowhere near as impressive as PRU's, and its long term downtrend remains clearly pointing down.

Price action is rising peaks and rising troughs, however, which indicates a return to a buy the dip mentality among market participants.

The most impressive technical signal on this chart is today's large white candle with a close on the high of the session. This speaks of a confident burst of excess demand, and the high close indicates a high probability there's likely more demand remaining in the system.

Importantly, today's close is above the dynamic resistance of the long term downtrend ribbon. This is pivotal in changing the long term trend. The close also eclipsed historical supply at 2.04-2.05 and is just shy of the major peak at 2.11.

The next key historical supply points are at 2.24 and 2.43. The key historical demand point is 1.94. The short term trend remains intact while the KAR price continues to close above this level.


Economy

Today

  • AUS Westpac Consumer Sentiment March

    • -1.8% to 84.4 vs +6.2% February (readings below 100 indicate general pessimism vs above 100 indicates general optimism)

    • Now marks 24-months since Australian consumers were optimistic

    • Households are disappointed with a lack of certainty around timing of rate cuts / not getting one yet

    • Also concerned about finances (-1.4% to 65.2) and economic outlook over the next 12-months (-4.5% to 84.9)

Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index down 1.8pct to 84.4. Source Westpac Melbourne Institute
Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index. Source: Westpac Economics, Melbourne Institute

Later this week

Tuesday

  • 23:30 USA Core Durable Goods Orders February (+0.4% forecast vs -0.4% January)

Wednesday

  • 01:00 USA Conference Board Consumer Confidence March (106.9 forecast vs +106.7 February)

  • 11:30 AUS Consumer Price Index February (CPI) (+3.5% p.a. forecast vs +3.4% p.a. January)

Thursday

  • 11:30 AUS Retail Sales February (+0.4% forecast vs +1.1% January)

Friday

  • All day AUS Good Friday Holiday

  • 23:30 USA Core PCE Price Index February (+0.3% forecast vs +0.4% January)

Saturday

  • 02:30 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speech at Monetary Policy Conference, in San Francisco


Latest News


Interesting Movers

Trading higher

  • +45.5% Mesoblast (MSB) - FDA Notifies Clinical Data Sufficient for Refiling aGVHD BLA

  • +21.0% Catapult Group International (CAT) - Response to ASX Price Query, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

  • +6.1% Karoon Energy (KAR) - No news, stronger energy sector today on rising crude oil price, back to rising peaks and rising troughs, now challenging long term downtrend ribbon

  • +5.7% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, bouncing off short term uptrend ribbon

  • +5.3% Cooper Energy (COE) - No news, stronger energy sector today on rising crude oil price

  • +4.8% The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) - No news, retained at hold at Ord Minnett, price target: $0.90

  • +4.7% Macmahon Holdings (MAH) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

  • +4.4% Premier Investments (PMV) - H1 FY24 Results, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

  • +4.0% Elders (ELD) - No news, retained at buy at Bell Potter, price target: $9.50

  • +3.6% Grange Resources (GRR) - No news 🤔

  • +3.3% Breville Group (BRG) - No news 🤔

  • +3.0% Alpha HPA (A4N) - Projects Update

  • +3.0% Temple & Webster Group (TPW) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend

  • +2.9% Regis Resources (RRL) - No news, generally stronger gold sector today on overnight rise in gold price, closed back above long term trend ribbon

  • +2.9% De Grey Mining (DEG) - Ivan Mullany to Chair Hemi Gold Project Committee, generally stronger gold sector today on overnight rise in gold price

  • +2.9% Beach Energy (BPT) - No news, stronger energy sector today on rising crude oil price, upgraded to add from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $2.15 from $1.65, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

  • +2.9% Latin Resources (LRS) - Colina delivers further high-grade results

  • +2.8% Capricorn Metals (CMM) - No news, generally stronger gold sector today on overnight rise in gold price, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

  • +2.8% Adairs (ADH) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend

Trading lower

  • -25.9% 29Metals (29M) - Capricorn Copper - Suspension of Operations

  • -6.7% Wildcat Resources (WC8) - No news, sector weakness due to sharp fall in lithium carbonate price on GFEX yesterday, closed below short term uptrend ribbon

  • -5.1% Atlas Arteria (ALX) - Ex-dividend $0.20 unfranked, any excess fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

  • -5.0% Sandfire Resources (SFR) - No news, downgraded to sell from neutral at Citi, price target: $7.30 from $6.90

  • -4.8% Lotus Resources (LOT) - No news, uranium sector weakness on small pullback in uranium price

  • -4.5% Novonix (NVX) - No news, sector weakness due to sharp fall in lithium carbonate price on GFEX yesterday

  • -4.5% Arcadium Lithium (LTM) - No news, sector weakness due to sharp fall in lithium carbonate price on GFEX yesterday, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

  • -4.4% Weebit Nano (WBT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

  • -4.2% Chalice Mining (CHN) - No news, sector weakness due to sharp fall in lithium carbonate price on GFEX yesterday

  • -4.1% Seven Group (SVW) - Third Supplementary Bidders Statement

  • -3.7% Iluka Resources (ILU) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrends, rebounding lower off long term downtrend ribbon, closed back below short term uptrend ribbon

  • -3.6% Playside Studios (PLY) - No news, pullback from recent substantial rally

  • -3.6% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) - No news, sector weakness due to sharp fall in lithium carbonate price on GFEX yesterday

  • -3.2% IDP Education (IEL) - Appointment of Chief Financial Officer, UBS cuts price target to $25.30 from $28, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

  • -2.8% Mineral Resources (MIN) - No news, sector weakness due to sharp fall in lithium carbonate price on GFEX yesterday


Broker Notes

  • 29METALS (29M) retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $0.55 from $0.45

  • The A2 Milk Company (A2M) retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.70

  • Australian Agricultural Company (AAC) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.00

  • ALS (ALQ)

    • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $13.60 from $13.70

    • Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $13.70 from $13.80

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $13.90 from $14.25

    • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $13.30 from $13.00

  • Amcor (AMC) retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $17.00 from $18.10

  • APA Group (APA) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.40 from $8.80

  • ASX (ASX) retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $53.50

  • Australian Vintage (AVG) retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.41

  • Bega Cheese (BGA) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.00

  • BHP Group (BHP) upgraded to add from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $47.60

  • Beach Energy (BPT) upgraded to add from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $2.15 from $1.65

  • Bubs Australia (BUB) retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.14

  • Car Group (CAR) retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $34.70

  • Cobram Estate Olives (CBO) retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.80

  • Clean Seas Seafood (CSS) retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.27

  • Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY) initiated buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.10

  • DGL Group (DGL) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.75

  • Elders (ELD)

    • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.50

    • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $9.70 from $7.60

  • Evolution Mining (EVN) retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.90

  • Genesis Minerals (GMD)

    • Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.00

    • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.30 from $2.20

  • Graincorp Class A (GNC) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.30

  • IDP Education (IEL) retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $25.30 from $28.00

  • Inghams Group (ING) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.35

  • Mineral Resources (MIN) downgraded to hold from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $71.00

  • Macquarie Group (MQG) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $225.00 from $202.00

  • MMA Offshore (MRM)

    • Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.60 from $2.70

    • Initiated at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.60

    • Downgraded to hold from buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.60

  • Noumi (NOU) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.175

  • Nufarm (NUF) retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.35

  • Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

    • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.55

    • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.30

  • Rural Funds Group (RFF) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.40

  • Regal Partners (RPL) initiated positive at E&P; Price Target: $4.20

  • Sandfire Resources (SFR) downgraded to sell from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.30 from $6.90

  • The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.90

  • Select Harvests (SHV) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.70

  • Synlait Milk (SM1) retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.75


Scans

Top Gainers

Code Company Last % Chg
MPK Many Peaks Minera... $0.21 +187.67%
MSB Mesoblast Ltd $0.475 +43.94%
SRR Sarama Resources Ltd $0.024 +41.18%
ASV Asset Vision Co Ltd $0.019 +26.67%
PSL Paterson Resource... $0.02 +25.00%
View all top gainers

Top Fallers

Code Company Last % Chg
BGE Bridge Saas Ltd $0.03 -38.78%
PNN Power Minerals Ltd $0.13 -27.78%
29M 29METALS Ltd $0.40 -25.93%
COD Coda Minerals Ltd $0.115 -20.69%
BEZ Besra Gold Inc $0.105 -19.23%
View all top fallers

52 Week Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
MPK Many Peaks Minera... $0.21 +187.67%
EXT Excite Technology... $0.011 +22.22%
CAT Catapult Group In... $1.525 +16.41%
LAM Laramide Resource... $1.02 +14.61%
TTT Titomic Ltd $0.055 +12.25%
View all 52 week highs

52 Week Lows

Code Company Last % Chg
PNN Power Minerals Ltd $0.13 -27.78%
LSA Lachlan Star Ltd $0.031 -18.42%
MXR Maximus Resources... $0.025 -16.67%
PPY Papyrus Australia... $0.011 -15.39%
A8G Australasian Meta... $0.06 -14.29%
View all 52 week lows

Near Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
CDA Codan Ltd $10.98 +2.24%
FGX Future Generation... $1.19 +0.85%
CPU Computershare Ltd $25.63 +0.24%
IXJ Ishares Global He... $139.32 -0.23%
MVE Vaneck S&P/ASX Mi... $38.23 +0.34%
View all near highs

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

Code Company Last % Chg
CPM Cooper Metals Ltd $0.105 -4.55%
EPY Earlypay Ltd $0.185 +2.78%
MVP Medical Developme... $0.603 +1.26%
CAI Calidus Resources... $0.12 0.00%
CLV Clover Corporatio... $0.495 -1.00%
View all RSI oversold

Written By

Carl Capolingua

Content Editor

Carl has over 30-years investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.

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