Evening Wrap: ASX 200 surges to new record as investors snap up retail, healthcare, and technology stocks

The Santa Claus rally was in full swing today as investors moved broadly into Aussie stocks. There was plenty of influence from US stocks overnight, particularly in strong gains in high-PE-high-growth biotechnology and technology stocks.

Consumer stocks also prospered as it really is the season for retailers to be jolly as major sales events hit fever pitch...ka-ching! 🛍️🛒

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 and Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 47.3 points higher at 8,495.2, 0.56% from its session low and 0.23% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by 175 to 100.

The Santa Claus rally was in full swing today as investors moved broadly into Aussie stocks. There was plenty of influence from US stocks overnight, particularly in strong gains in high-PE-high-growth biotechnology and technology stocks.

This helped Health Care (XHJ) (+1.2%) to the top of the sector performance pile on another strong gain in 2024’s rocket emoji stock Pro Medicus (ASX: PME) (+3.2%), but also aided strongly by solid gains in sector heavyweights CSL (ASX: CSL)) (+1.4%), and Cochlear (ASX: COH) (+0.81%).

Retail stocks were again highly sought after as investors assess the success of recent Black Friday/Cyber Monday (“BFCM”) sales and anticipate the success of upcoming holiday sales. Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+1.0%) and Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+0.78%) prospered as Metcash (ASX: MTS) (+7.5%) rose on positive broker reviews of its half-year results released yesterday, and BFCM related stocks like Temple & Webster Group (ASX: TPW) (+3.6%), Breville Group (ASX: BRG) (+2.0%), JB HI-FI (ASX: JBH) (+1.8%) gained.

Industrials (XNJ) (+0.92%) (led by Qantas Airways (ASX: QAN) (+2.7%), Computershare (ASX: CPU) (+2.7%), and Brambles (ASX: BXB) (+1.6%)) and Communication Services (XTJ) (+0.84%) (led by REA Group (ASX: REA) (+1.5%), Telstra Group (ASX: TLS) (+1.0%), and Car Group (ASX: CAR) (+1.0%)) also did well today.

Today’s best stocks from the best performing ASX sectors

There were only three sectors that closed in the red, and really only two of those that you could say did it tough today. The Gold (XGD) (-0.89%) sub-index is finding itself in this position far too often for my liking lately – a combination of the continued fallout from the Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) (-2.8%) – De Grey Mining (ASX: DEG) (-2.5%) takeover, but also, a sagging gold price is to blame here.

Utilities (XUJ) (-0.51%) was the other sector that was shunned today, nothing specific I could see, perhaps just a response to a small rise in risk-free market yields overnight.

FYI, Energy (XEJ) (+0.27%) and Resources (XJR) (-0.05%) were neither here nor there.

Today’s best stocks from the worst performing ASX sectors

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

In the paddock frolicking with the bulls 🐂 (click here for full size chart)

The last time we covered the XJO was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 28 November.

In that update, I pointed out that recent upward pointing shadows were far from indicative of a confident demand-side, and just as much – a stubbornly active supply-side.

But, without any serious supply-side showings, I concluded: “Until then, you will find me blissfully ignorant of anything that even resembles negative rhetoric, frolicking the paddock with the bulls!”.

I’m still in the paddock.

As I trust you are too.

Today’s record close is far more confident than those seen up to this point – and that is encouraging.

The remains absolutely nothing in these technicals (trends, dynamic demand reinforcement, price action, candles) to suggest anything but demand-side control.

This means there remains absolutely no reason not to stay the course.

You know what the fingerprints of supply are:

Supply-side candles (i.e., those with black bodies and or upward pointing shadows) – the longer the more indicative of supply-side control

Falling peaks, particularly those set with strong supply-side candles (falling peaks can only occur when there is supply reinforcement in the system)

Falling troughs – we do not want to see a close below key points of demand like 8305-52. It would indicate demand removal.

Close below the dynamic demand we expect at the short and long term trend ribbons (short term trend ribbon coincidently also roughly 8305-52 – making that a very important level in the short term).

Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS)

Somehow, a sure thing throughout every twist and turn of this chart (according to social media fanatics!) (click here for full size chart)

I don’t usually do individual stocks here, I prefer to leave that to my ChartWatch ASX Scans lists, but there has been a flutter on social media over the last couple of days about how PLS is supposed to experience some miraculous recovery because short seller shenanigans are potentially coming to an end.

I’m not going to do conspiracy theories – or theories full stop – I am a technical analyst and I honestly couldn’t care any less about what’s happening with PLS’s share register.

I do trends. I do price action. I do candles.*

And among these items, I see little to convince me yet that the extremely strong prevailing short and long term downtrends are about to change here.

But here’s the thing. Perhaps they are. You see I wouldn’t have a clue because I can’t tell the future.

If that disappoints you, then fortunately there are scores of PLS diehards all over social media that are only too happy to shout from their keypads their most certain forecasts: The low is in, buy now or miss out!

I on the other hand will only have an idea that "the low is in” after I see a return to rising peaks and rising troughs (i.e., demand reinforcement and supply removal), a predominance of demand-side candles (i.e., those with white bodies and or downward pointing shadows), a close above the short term ribbon / short term trend ribbon turns up / price action and candles that demonstrates it is acting as dynamic demand, and finally a close above the long term trend ribbon / long term trend ribbon at least neutralises / price action and candles that demonstrates it is acting as dynamic demand.

That’s my model. I never waiver from it. Regardless of how much of a sure a thing social media assures me it is.

You see, I don’t have any emotional hang ups about missing the bottom. I prefer to miss the bottom actually. For in my long experience in this game, I know how much money I've lost (and agony I experienced in the process) the vast majority of times I tried to pick the bottom.

My current approach sees me waiting patiently for the demand-supply environment to shift back to confident demand-side control. I want to trade with the market, not against it.

It could be 20 or 30% in price before this happens. So be it.

I don’t keep score by what price I paid for my stock. My entry and exit price for any single stock is irrelevant to me. I keep score by whether I’ve made good decisions that have made me money over the long term.

If PLS is as good as the diehards on social media exclaim, then missing 20 or 30% will be a pittance compared to what will be on offer.

Or I may get in after that initial 30% rally and find it's too late. So be it. I’ll cross that bridge when I get there.

You must decide what your system is. Whether it’s based on fundamentals, technicals, or ranting fanatics on social media. It really doesn’t matter which, or the combination, you choose, as long as it works for you.

I do recommend however, that you pick something that delivers you objective and not subjective signals, and that can be consistently applied (this might rule out the ranting fanatics!).

(*Knowing what I've taught you here in ChartWatch, what do you think about PLS's technicals? Do they point to strong demand-side control? What about the last few candles? Yes there's been a rally, but are they confident showings by the demand-side? 🤔)

Economy

Today

• AUS Current Account September Qtr

  • -$14.1 billion vs -$10.3 billion forecast and -$16.4 billion in June Qtr (revised down from -$10.7 billion)

  • A big miss, mainly due to lower export prices on our key commodities...

  • ABS now expects net exports will add just 0.1% to gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter (data due tomorrow), compared to 0.3% previously.

Later this week

Wednesday

• 02:00 USA JOLTS Job Openings November (7.49 million forecast vs 7.44 million in October)

• 11:30 AUS Gross Domestic Product (GDP) September Qtr (+0.5% q/q forecast vs +0.2% q/q in June Qtr)

• 12:45 CHN Caixin Manufacturing (PMI) November (52.5 forecast vs 52.0 in October.

Thursday

• 02:00 USA ISM Services PMI November (55.5 forecast vs 56.0 in October)

• 05:45 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

Friday

• 00:30 USA Weekly Unemployment Claims (215,000 forecast vs 213,000 previous)

Saturday

• 00:30 USA Non-Farm Employment Change November (+202,000 forecast vs +12,000 in October)

• 00:30 USA Average hourly earnings November (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.4% m/m in October)

• 00:30 USA Employment Rate November (4.2% forecast vs 4.1% in October)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +7.5% Metcash (MTS) - Continued positive response to yesterday's FY25 Half Year Results, upgraded to BUY from NEUTRAL at Citi and price target increased to $3.70 from $3.40

• +7.1% The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) - Continued positive response to Friday's Group CEO and Managing Director - Regulatory Approval, but note also today's New Debt Facility Arrangement

• +5.8% Block (SQ2) - No news, followed US listing higher on stronger US market overnight, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +5.6% Electro Optic Systems (EOS) - No news, tech / biotech / high PE rally in the US flowed through to the ASX today

• +5.5% Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) - No news, tech / biotech / high PE rally in the US flowed through to the ASX today

• +5.4% Bravura Solutions (BVS) - No news, tech / biotech / high PE rally in the US flowed through to the ASX today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +5.3% Nuix (NXL) - Nuix signs $10.8m contract extension with ASIC

• +5.2% Magellan Financial Group (MFG) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +4.5% Catapult Group International (CAT) - No news, tech / biotech / high PE rally in the US flowed through to the ASX today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +4.5% Light & Wonder (LNW) - No news, followed US listing higher on stronger US market overnight

• +3.8% Life360 (360) - No news, tech / biotech / high PE rally in the US flowed through to the ASX today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +3.7% Netwealth Group (NWL) - No news, rebounded from yesterday's December 2024 Business Update driven sell off, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +3.7% Service Stream (SSM) - Service Stream Contracts Update, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, has been a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -9.1% Ioneer (INR) - No news, lithium futures prices weaker in China today

• -6.7% Jupiter Mines (JMS) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -4.3% Collins Foods (CKF) - HY25 Financial Report and HY25 Results Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -4.2% WEB Travel Group (WEB) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -4.2% Lotus Resources (LOT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -3.5% Novonix (NVX) - NOVONIX Share Purchase Plan, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -2.8% Northern Star Resources (NST) - Continued negative response to yesterday's Northern Star agrees to acquire De Grey, downgraded to SECTOR PERFORM from OUTPERFORM at RBC Capital Markets and price target cut to $17.50 from $18.50

• -2.7% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, has been a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📈

• -2.5% Worley (WOR) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, has been a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📈

Broker Notes

• AMP (AMP)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.34

• ANZ Group (ANZ)

  • Retained at reduce at Morgans; Price Target: $26.24 from $25.29

• BHP Group (BHP)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $47.40 from $47.30

• Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $6.03

• Breville Group (BRG)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $36.51

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

  • Retained at reduce at Morgans; Price Target: $95.31 from $95.45

• Collins Foods (CKF)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.88

• Chorus (CNU)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: NZ$8.50

• CSL (CSL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $334.00 from $330.00

• De Grey Mining (DEG)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.97 from $2.15

  • Retained at buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $2.03

  • Downgraded to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.00 from $1.80

• Goodman Group (GMG)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $38.45

• Gold Road Resources (GOR)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.55 from $2.40

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.35 from $2.25

• GPT Group (GPT)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.22

• Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.00

• IPH (IPH)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.11

• Judo Capital (JDO)

  • Downgraded to hold from add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.92

• Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $9.50

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $34.00

• Medibank Private (MPL)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.00

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.85

• Metcash (MTS)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.70 from $3.40

  • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $4.20 from $4.00

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.10

  • Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $4.10 from $4.30

  • Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $3.40

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.30 from $3.45

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.45

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.10

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.50 from $3.60

• National Australia Bank (NAB)

  • Retained at reduce at Morgans; Price Target: $29.29 from $29.45

• NIB (NHF)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.50

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.45

• Northern Star Resources (NST)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $19.55

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $18.30

  • Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $18.40

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $16.60

  • Retained at underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $13.10

  • Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $19.50

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $15.60

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $16.50

  • Downgraded to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $17.50 from $18.50

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $18.95

• Netwealth Group (NWL)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $27.00

• Nextdc (NXT)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $20.00 from $19.40

• QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $20.00

• Rio Tinto (RIO)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $129.00 from $127.00

• Resimac Group (RMC)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.30

• Scentre Group (SCG)

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $3.53

• Steadfast Group (SDF)

  • Upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.98 from $6.64

• Siteminder (SDR)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.65 from $7.20

• Serko (SKO)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.91 from $4.25

• Syntara (SNT)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.10

• Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

  • Downgraded to reduce from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $27.77 from $27.66

• Woolworths Group (WOW)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $32.50

Scans