The S&P/ASX 200 closed 37.6 points higher, up 0.45%.
Tickle me once. Shame on you. Tickle me twice. Shame on me. Tickle me a third time? I'm starting to get a little tickled off!
What does all this talk about tickles have to do with the performance of the Australian share market today? You'll have to read this evening's ChartWatch section to find out!
Apart from a whole lot of tickling going on, we saw some strong gains in key Health, Financial, and Utilities stocks as the S&P/ASX 200 logged another record high close – its third in eight sessions.
Lagging the pack, again, were Gold and Energy stocks.
Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.
Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 and Coal in today's ChartWatch.
Let's dive in!
Thu 28 Nov 24, 5:11pm (AEDT)
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The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 37.6 points higher at 8,444.3, roughly mid-range 0.45% from its session low and 0.39% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a narrow 150 to 120 (was 192 to 90 with an hour’s trade to go! Tickle me sideways! 🤔).
The Health Care (XHJ) (+1.6%) sector was easily the best performing major ASX sector today, no doubt in response to a nice gain in major constituent Pro Medicus (ASX: PME) (+7.9%). The company announced it had secured its second US contract in two days, this one a very tidy $330 million 10-year affair. PME’s gain is timely if only for one thing – this article I wrote yesterday in which I claim no stock is too high to buy!
In what was a far from convincing record closing high today, just three sectors outperformed the benchmark S&P/ASX 200. Joining the XHJ was Financials (XFJ) (+0.80%) and Utilities (XUJ) (+0.59%).
For Financials, it was a welcome return to form for a sector that has really lead the 2024 bull market in terms of index points, with major banking and insurance companies continuing to bounce back from the losses they logged on Tuesday. Each of the majors except for ANZ Group (ASX: ANZ) (+0.38%) enjoyed gains in excess of 1% in today's trade.
Utilities is an odd sector, ridiculously narrow, dominated by major constituents Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) (1.6%), and AGL Energy (ASX: AGL) (+0.58%). Given both of those were up today, the sector was always going to log a gain of there-or-thereabouts. I also note that as a bond proxy, this sector loves lower market yields, and that’s exactly what we’ve been seeing all week.
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Pro Medicus (PME) | $246.39 | +$17.98 | +7.9% | +24.7% | +183.2% |
Opthea (OPT) | $0.692 | +$0.048 | +7.4% | -17.6% | +103.2% |
Sigma Healthcare (SIG) | $2.89 | +$0.19 | +7.0% | +50.1% | +322.1% |
Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) | $6.36 | +$0.41 | +6.9% | -7.2% | +387.0% |
Insurance Australia Group (IAG) | $8.59 | +$0.405 | +5.0% | +14.8% | +44.5% |
Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT) | $0.365 | +$0.015 | +4.3% | +4.3% | +128.1% |
Zip Co. (ZIP) | $3.37 | +$0.11 | +3.4% | +11.6% | +823.3% |
GQG Partners (GQG) | $2.32 | +$0.075 | +3.3% | -17.0% | +65.4% |
Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) | $12.75 | +$0.375 | +3.0% | +3.8% | -13.2% |
NIB (NHF) | $5.72 | +$0.155 | +2.8% | -1.8% | -25.2% |
Hub24 (HUB) | $75.81 | +$1.61 | +2.2% | +10.1% | +133.6% |
Netwealth Group (NWL) | $30.69 | +$0.65 | +2.2% | +10.6% | +110.5% |
Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI) | $23.64 | +$0.475 | +2.1% | +20.0% | +166.8% |
Helia Group (HLI) | $4.50 | +$0.09 | +2.0% | +12.5% | +21.3% |
Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) | $23.82 | +$0.455 | +1.9% | +12.9% | +154.2% |
CSL (CSL) | $286.14 | +$5.4 | +1.9% | -0.5% | +11.7% |
Polynovo (PNV) | $2.18 | +$0.04 | +1.9% | +5.8% | +62.7% |
Washington H Soul Pattinson & Company (SOL) | $35.28 | +$0.61 | +1.8% | +4.6% | +6.4% |
Suncorp Group (SUN) | $19.76 | +$0.335 | +1.7% | +9.9% | +43.3% |
ASX (ASX) | $66.59 | +$1.07 | +1.6% | +1.3% | +16.7% |
AUB Group (AUB) | $32.60 | +$0.52 | +1.6% | +2.5% | +16.8% |
Origin Energy (ORG) | $10.98 | +$0.175 | +1.6% | +15.5% | +28.7% |
Lagging the market today, were a group of what we could label as usual suspects (“US”). The Gold (XGD) (-0.43%) sub-index is more of a recent US, the gold price is doing its best impression of a dead cat bounce after Monday night's plunge on COMEX.
Energy (XEJ) (-0.32%) on the other hand, is the most US of any of the major ASX sectors over the last 12-months. Major energy commodity prices continue to fall in the wake of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, and this is dragging on the already depressed prices of our energy stocks. I have some technical analysis on the two key coal contracts for you in ChartWatch below.
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Paladin Energy (PDN) | $7.76 | -$0.41 | -5.0% | -21.2% | -25.0% |
Strike Energy (STX) | $0.205 | -$0.01 | -4.7% | +2.5% | -47.4% |
Catalyst Metals (CYL) | $2.66 | -$0.11 | -4.0% | -21.5% | +200.6% |
Iperionx (IPX) | $4.34 | -$0.13 | -2.9% | +39.1% | +201.4% |
Boss Energy (BOE) | $2.76 | -$0.08 | -2.8% | -18.8% | -37.4% |
Deep Yellow (DYL) | $1.210 | -$0.02 | -1.6% | -10.7% | +6.1% |
Northern Star Resources (NST) | $17.37 | -$0.25 | -1.4% | -3.6% | +48.1% |
Newmont Corporation (NEM) | $64.14 | -$0.89 | -1.4% | -11.9% | +12.6% |
Perseus Mining (PRU) | $2.62 | -$0.03 | -1.1% | -8.7% | +49.3% |
Nexgen Energy (NXG) | $12.89 | -$0.11 | -0.8% | +13.1% | +24.8% |
Santos (STO) | $6.59 | -$0.05 | -0.8% | -3.4% | -6.3% |
Bannerman Energy (BMN) | $2.71 | -$0.02 | -0.7% | -9.4% | -1.8% |
De Grey Mining (DEG) | $1.495 | -$0.01 | -0.7% | +0.3% | +16.3% |
West African Resources (WAF) | $1.515 | -$0.01 | -0.7% | -16.8% | +83.6% |
Gold Road Resources (GOR) | $1.860 | -$0.01 | -0.5% | -3.1% | +1.9% |
Coronado Global Resources (CRN) | $0.930 | -$0.005 | -0.5% | -7.0% | -42.8% |
Beach Energy (BPT) | $1.235 | -$0.005 | -0.4% | -0.4% | -17.1% |
Evolution Mining (EVN) | $4.98 | -$0.02 | -0.4% | -4.8% | +35.3% |
Karoon Energy (KAR) | $1.315 | -$0.005 | -0.4% | -4.0% | -37.1% |
Viva Energy Group (VEA) | $2.65 | -$0.01 | -0.4% | 0% | -14.5% |
The last time we covered the XJO was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 25 November.
In that update, we noted the second “tickle” of a new all-time high within 5 candles. By tickle, I mean setting a new all-time high on an intraday basis before the supply-side moves in to push prices down by the close. Tickles usually equate to upward pointing shadows – a sign the market is not quite ready to move decisively to new highs.
Today’s candle showed yet another tickle. We closed only marginally above half-way up today's candle and that means another upward pointing shadow. I note we also closed below both the 8447 and 8462 tops of the last two tickle candles.
Hey, don't get me wrong – this is a monster uptrend – and both short and long term trends remain intact and impeccable. Price action too is rock solid.
It's just that upward pointing shadows create the tiniest degree of nagging doubt in my mind that the demand-side is indeed gripped by the necessary FOMO I'd like to see around new highs, and the supply-side is stubbornly more active than they should be if there's unanimous agreement we're going much, much higher.
Otherwise, how else can you get upward pointing shadows in the first place? Think about it. 🤔
Hey, we'll know when we've seen something really indicative of demand-side capitulation crossed with supply-side dominance. It will manifest itself as a really long upward pointing shadow. Or it could be a really long full black candle. These will subsequently lead to the formation of falling peaks, and subsequent to that, falling troughs.
I.e., the Fingerprints of excess supply.
Until then, you will find me blissfully ignorant of anything that even resembles negative rhetoric, frolicking the paddock with the bulls! 🐂
I’ve been noticing a few ASX coal stocks appearing in my daily ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends lists lately. I’m talking the likes of Coronado Global Resources (ASX: CRN), New Hope Corporation (ASX: NHC), and Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC).
I also note that Yancoal Australia (ASX: YAL) has popped up in the Interesting Moves section of this Evening Wrap a few times this week – albeit for more-fundamentally based reasons. That chart so far appears to be holding its long term uptrend, whilst the chart of another coal sector constituent, Stanmore Resources (ASX: SMR), has just pushed above its long term uptrend ribbon and probably looks the pick of the bunch for now.
Given these developments, I figured it was a good time to check up on the two key ASX coal contracts, the SGX traded Australian Premium Coking Coal contract, and the Newcastle Thermal Coal contract. Both are showing less than ideal trends for ASX coal stocks.
First (above), is the coking coal chart. It’s presently short term downtrend versus long term downtrend. If you’ve been following ChartWatch for any length of time, it’s probably a chart that holds few surprises for you: Don’t mess with the long term downtrend ribbon!
Price action is falling peaks and falling troughs – indicating supply reinforcement and demand removal respectively. The price action is compressing in a tightening range above the US$200/t psychological support (more specifically, above points of demand at 201.50 and 202).
That September rally (triggered by a fire at a major coal mine in QLD), appears under extreme pressure now, and a close below 201.50 likely sets up a probe of the next major point of demand at 182.
A close above supply at 210.50 is the minimum required to swing at least short term momentum back to the upside. A return to rising peaks and rising troughs would further indicate a return to demand-side control. Ultimately, though, really only a close above 237 and the long term uptrend ribbon could sway me back to even contemplating longs here.
It's not much better over here with thermal coal: Short term and long term downtrend and falling peaks and falling troughs. Same-same.
Just like coking coal, it's also holding above a key demand level (138.50), and a close below it potentially sets up for the probing of lower demand points (129.50).
Supply is at the short and long term uptrend ribbons. It looks rock solid at the long term uptrend ribbon in particular.
A close above 146.55 is the minimum required to indicate an possibility of a return to demand-side control in the short term. A close above the long term downtrend ribbon – but really above 157-65-159.40 – is required to confirm a return to long term uptrend.
Today
There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today
Thursday
19:55 AUS RBA Gov Bullock Speaks
Friday
00:00 JPN Tokyo Core CPI November (+2.0% p.a. forecast vs +1.8% p.a. in October)
All Day USA Thanksgiving Public Holiday
Saturday
12:30 CHN Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing (Services) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) November (Manufacturing: 50.3 forecast vs 50.1 in October; Services: 50.2 forecast vs 50.2 in October)
+87.9% Avjennings (AVJ) - All Cash Proposal from AVID to Acquire AVJennings (cash bid at $0.67/share) and AVJennings Q1 FY25 Business Update
+8.7% Pro Medicus (PME) - PME signs AUD $330M, 10-year contract with Trinity Health, also see yesterday's PME signs $24M upgrade to Full Stack with NYU Langone Health, check out this article, shows no stock is too high to buy. Rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, the most Featured stock in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends 🔎📈
+6.9% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) - Last patient assessment completed for SARTATE trial, also see 26 Nov First 2 participants dosed with Cu-64 SAR-bisPSMA in Co-PSMA, also nailing the bounce off the long term uptrend ribbon! 🔎📈
+6.4% Spartan Resources (SPR) - New Gold Discovery Confirmed at Dalgaranga, retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity with a price target of $1.70, also worth checking out this chart for its impeccable long term uptrend ribbon holding abilities! 🔎📈
+5.4% Opthea (OPT) - No news since 26 Nov Opthea's Wet AMD Program to be Featured at FLORetina 2024, looks to have nailed the bounce off the long term uptrend ribbon with a difficulty level of 3.0! 🔎📈
+5.1% Resolute Mining (RSG) - No news, bounce after massive fall on Update in Relation to Negotiations with Malian Government earlier in the month
+5.0% Gentrack Group (GTK) - Continued positive response to 26 Nov FY24 Results - Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, another ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends regular 🔎📈
+4.3% Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT) - No news, another stock that is bouncing nicely off its long term uptrend ribbon 🔎📈
+3.8% Praemium (PPS) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, another ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends regular 🔎📈
+3.8% Superloop (SLC) - No news, once again, just the most fantastic prevailing short and long term uptrends making this one another ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends regular 🔎📈
+3.7% Zip Co. (ZIP) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends making this one another ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends regular 🔎📈
+3.5% Insurance Australia Group (IAG) - IAG and RACQ enter long-term strategic alliance, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends making this one another ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends regular 🔎📈
+3.4% Supply Network (SNL) - Chairman Appointment and Chairman's Address and Half Year Performance Guidance, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, another ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends regular 🔎📈
+3.2% Peet (PPC) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+3.1% Tuas (TUA) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends making this one another ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends regular 🔎📈
+3.0% Sigma Healthcare (SIG) - No news, just the most fantastic prevailing short and long term uptrends making this one another ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends regular 🔎📈
+2.1% Droneshield (DRO) - DroneShield Makes Senior Australian Defence Appointments (definitely not a ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends regular…so well done here!)
-20.9% Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR) - Paradigm to Proceed with Phase 3 Knee OA Trial, pullback after a massive rally that saw the stock price triple over the last 6 trading sessions
-12.3% Humm Group (HUM) - Response to Price Query, AGM Presentation and CEO's AGM Address to Shareholders, note was also initiated at buy at Shaw and Partners with a price target of $1.00
-8.6% Novonix (NVX) - Continued negative response to Successful Completion of Institutional Placement, shareholders should be extremely disappointed 👎
-7.7% Webjet (WJL) - Acknowledgement of ACCC legal proceedings, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend 🔎📉
-7.5% PYC Therapeutics (PYC) - Polycystic Kidney Disease Program Investor Presentation
-7.1% The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) - 2024 AGM Addresses, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends regular 🔎📈
-5.0% Paladin Energy (PDN) - Ceasing to be a substantial holder (UBS), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends regular 🔎📈
-4.7% Strike Energy (STX) - South Erregulla Peaking Gas Power Station FID and Chairman's AGM Address and MD Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends regular 🔎📈
-4.5% Liontown Resources (LTR) - 2024 AGM Chair address and presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends regular 🔎📈
-4.4% Cettire (CTT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends regular 🔎📈
-4.0% Wildcat Resources (WC8) - Wildcat Delivers MRE of 74.1Mt @ 1.0% Li2O
-3.9% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - No news today, pullback after a massive rally
-3.6% Chalice Mining (CHN) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends regular 🔎📈
Adacel Technologies (ADA)
Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.43 from $0.70
Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.85 from $0.90
Amcor (AMC)
Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.04 from $16.30
Betmakers Technology Group (BET)
Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.16
BHP Group (BHP)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $46.00
Cogstate (CGS)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.35 from $1.63
Elders (ELD)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.45
Electro Optic Systems (EOS)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.00 from $2.20
Humm Group (HUM)
Initiated at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.00
Harvey Norman (HVN)
Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $4.90
Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $4.60
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.00
Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.00
Insurance Australia Group (IAG)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $8.20
Light & Wonder (LNW)
Initiated at buy at Citi; Price Target: $156.00
Metro Mining (MMI)
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.14
Motorcycle Holdings (MTO)
Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $2.25 from $1.90
Metcash (MTS)
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.60
Monash IVF Group (MVF)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.56 from $1.85
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.50
Retained at hold at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.50 from $1.54
Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.50 from $1.54
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.50
Predictive Discovery (PDI)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.50
Pro Medicus (PME)
Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $100.00
PYC Therapeutics (PYC)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.70
QBE Insurance Group (QBE)
Downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $19.35
Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $22.00 from $21.00
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $21.30 from $20.80
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $21.25
Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $21.37 from $18.73
Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $21.00
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $21.50 from $20.50
Rio Tinto (RIO)
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $135.00
RAS Technology (RTH)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.66
Scentre Group (SCG)
Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.85 from $3.90
Supply Network (SNL)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $33.00 from $30.50
Spartan Resources (SPR)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.70
Straker (STG)
Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.37 from $0.38
Turaco Gold (TCG)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.70
Wildcat Resources (WC8)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.60
WEB Travel Group (WEB)
Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $5.60 from $7.10
Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $6.30 from $5.70
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.83 from $4.48
Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $5.05 from $5.25
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.79 from $6.14
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $7.10 from $7.50
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $6.60
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.15 from $5.60
Webjet (WJL)
Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.70
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