The S&P/ASX 200 closed 23.8 points higher, up 0.28%.
The market has been sweating on higher market yields for the last few weeks, and we’re finally seeing some signs of at least a short term peak there. This helped Aussie shares to gains today, but more specifically those sectors that stand to benefit the most from easing risk-free rates.
Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.
Also, I have detailed technical analysis on and in today's ChartWatch.
Let's dive in!
Mon 25 Nov 24, 5:04pm (AEDT)
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The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 23.8 points higher at 8,417.6, 0.53% from its session high and just 0.28% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by 160 to 100.
The market has been sweating on higher market yields for the last few weeks, and we’re finally seeing some signs of at least a short term peak there. This helped Aussie shares to gains today (stocks love lower market yields), but more specifically, those sectors that stand to benefit the most from easing risk-free rates.
From their peak on 14 Nov of 4.713%, the long term risk-free proxy yield of the Australian 10-year Government Bond dipped to 4.466% today. This means the market just cut long term rates 0.247% in just over 10 days. That's akin to an RBA rate cut.
It’s no surprise then that Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (+2.2%) was the best performing sector today. REITS are generally heavily debt funded, and their returns are considered directly comparable to long duration risk-free bond yields.
Also benefiting from moves in the bond market was the consumer spending-focussed Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+1.9%) sector, and high-PE / long earnings duration sectors like Health Care (XHJ) (+1.5%), Information Technology (XIJ) (+0.85%), and Communication Services (XTJ) (+0.89%).
Finally, bond market proxy sectors like Utilities (XUJ) (+1.2%). But there was plenty of love spread around elsewhere too.
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Appen (APX) | $2.35 | +$0.26 | +12.4% | +23.4% | +159.7% |
Mesoblast (MSB) | $1.680 | +$0.175 | +11.6% | +32.8% | +385.5% |
Avita Medical (AVH) | $4.20 | +$0.27 | +6.9% | +37.3% | +34.6% |
Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT) | $0.335 | +$0.015 | +4.7% | +1.5% | +139.3% |
Guzman y Gomez (GYG) | $39.82 | +$1.63 | +4.3% | -0.2% | 0% |
Life360 (360) | $21.75 | +$0.75 | +3.6% | +2.1% | +181.7% |
Mirvac Group (MGR) | $2.18 | +$0.07 | +3.3% | -1.4% | +10.7% |
Healthco Health & Wellness Reit (HCW) | $1.135 | +$0.035 | +3.2% | -3.0% | -19.8% |
Sigma Healthcare (SIG) | $2.63 | +$0.08 | +3.1% | +41.8% | +276.1% |
Polynovo (PNV) | $2.04 | +$0.06 | +3.0% | -5.1% | +53.4% |
Scentre Group (SCG) | $3.64 | +$0.1 | +2.8% | +3.1% | +42.7% |
Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW) | $6.20 | +$0.17 | +2.8% | -1.1% | +38.4% |
Ingenia Communities (INA) | $5.14 | +$0.14 | +2.8% | +4.9% | +25.1% |
Pro Medicus (PME) | $227.64 | +$5.89 | +2.7% | +22.8% | +157.2% |
PWR Holdings (PWH) | $7.90 | +$0.2 | +2.6% | -10.9% | -23.0% |
Temple & Webster (TPW) | $11.63 | +$0.29 | +2.6% | -7.3% | +75.9% |
Ebos Group (EBO) | $34.58 | +$0.83 | +2.5% | +1.9% | +4.4% |
Nuix (NXL) | $6.25 | +$0.15 | +2.5% | -7.5% | +303.2% |
The Star Entertainment (SGR) | $0.210 | +$0.005 | +2.4% | -20.8% | -66.7% |
Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) | $12.66 | +$0.3 | +2.4% | +1.5% | -10.7% |
The only sectors doing it tough today, was the Gold (XGD) (-1.3%) sub-index. It suffered on a sharp pullback in the gold price in Asian trade today. Weakness in gold stocks dragged on the only major ASX sector to log a loss today – Resources (XJR) (-0.18%).
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Catalyst Metals (CYL) | $2.60 | -$0.64 | -19.8% | -26.1% | +213.3% |
Bellevue Gold (BGL) | $1.295 | -$0.055 | -4.1% | -20.6% | -14.2% |
Ora Banda Mining (OBM) | $0.715 | -$0.03 | -4.0% | -22.7% | +257.5% |
Pilbara Minerals (PLS) | $2.51 | -$0.1 | -3.8% | -8.4% | -29.1% |
Perenti (PRN) | $1.210 | -$0.04 | -3.2% | +1.7% | +15.8% |
Vulcan Steel (VSL) | $7.02 | -$0.23 | -3.2% | -4.5% | -5.8% |
Newmont Corporation (NEM) | $64.75 | -$1.93 | -2.9% | -8.5% | +13.2% |
Imdex (IMD) | $2.50 | -$0.07 | -2.7% | -3.1% | +44.5% |
Coronado Global Resources (CRN) | $0.915 | -$0.025 | -2.7% | -14.9% | -43.0% |
Capricorn Metals (CMM) | $6.36 | -$0.16 | -2.5% | -3.6% | +42.6% |
Gold Road Resources (GOR) | $1.860 | -$0.045 | -2.4% | -4.6% | +0.3% |
South32 (S32) | $3.74 | -$0.09 | -2.4% | +0.8% | +15.4% |
Perseus Mining (PRU) | $2.63 | -$0.05 | -1.9% | -11.1% | +44.9% |
Nickel Industries (NIC) | $0.895 | -$0.015 | -1.6% | -6.8% | +16.2% |
Northern Star Resources (NST) | $17.61 | -$0.29 | -1.6% | -3.7% | +48.1% |
Regis Resources (RRL) | $2.62 | -$0.04 | -1.5% | -6.4% | +45.6% |
Ramelius Resources (RMS) | $2.07 | -$0.03 | -1.4% | -14.5% | +31.8% |
Firefly Metals (FFM) | $1.150 | -$0.015 | -1.3% | +5.5% | +125.5% |
Resolute Mining (RSG) | $0.400 | -$0.005 | -1.2% | -53.5% | +8.1% |
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) | $6.72 | -$0.08 | -1.2% | -9.7% | -1.2% |
The last time we covered was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 21 November.
In that update, we noted the Aussie benchmark was experiencing some “malaise” below the upward pointing shadow printed on 19 Nov – marking the then all time high. I said it might take a few session to work through the supply overhang that shadow indicated.
I felt it was worth following up today given we’ve once again tipped a new all time high with an upward pointing shadow. It demonstrates some reluctance to kick on with it – a degree of inability of the demand-side to press home its advantage – and similarly a degree of nagging supply side participation.
It points to a trudge higher at best rather than an emphatic surge. I’d be concerned if we begin to see an increasing number of upward pointing shadows. This could indicate that supply is rising up to meet the demand that has almost by default been driving this rally.
It’s just a watch and see for now, other than these last two upward shadows on records, there’s very little to suggest the prevailing short and long term uptrends cannot continue.
Demand is at the short term uptrend ribbon, it kicks in around 8285, and then down to 8063-8139.
Supply, well, it’s all blue sky from here so technically, there isn’t any.
As always, watch the candles and price action closely. Supply-side candles (i.e., black-bodied and or upward pointing shadows – particularly long examples) would give increased cause for concern, as would the setting of falling peaks and falling troughs.
The last time we covered uranium was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 18 November.
In that update, exactly a week ago now, we were tracking a counter-trend rally in the uranium price after two significant bullish drivers (US election result and the Russian export ban on enriched uranium to the USA).
I said it was “put up or shut up for uranium”. Either it had to break back above the supply barrier of the long term downtrend ribbon and the static supply zone 84.05-85.95 (previously 83.85-85.75 due to subsequent front-month contract roll and back-adjust) – or it would be the most likely scenario – another realignment with the long term-downtrend.
It looks like the long term downtrend ribbon has done its job – no surprises there – and the uranium price is again short term downtrend / long term downtrend oriented.
76.70 is demand. A close below there sets up a probe of 72.50.
Supply is now bunching around 82.80-88.60. There’s plenty to work through within there and this tide will take some turning.
I think it’s really quite simply from here: 1. Trust the trend (that’s always point number 1), 2. Trust that it has transitioned to long term downtrend, 3. Do so until the price action switches back to rising peaks and rising troughs, and we then get a close above that supply zone.
Today
There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today
Tuesday
01:00 CNY CB Leading Index October (-0.2% in September)
Wednesday
02:00 USA CB Consumer Confidence November (112.0 forecast vs 108.7 October)
02:00 USA New Home Sales October (724,000 forecast vs 738,000 in September)
11:30 AUS Consumer Price Index (CPI) October (+2.5% p.a. vs +2.1% p.a. in September)
Thursday
00:30 USA Preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) September Quarter (+2.8% p.a. forecast vs +2.8% p.a. previous)
00:30 USA Core Durable Goods Orders October (+0.2% m/m forecast vs +0.5% m/m in September)
02:00 USA Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index October (+0.3% m/m and +2.8% p.a. forecast vs +0.3% m/m and +2.7% p.a. in September)
06:00 FOMC Minutes from its November meeting
19:55 AUD RBA Gov Bullock Speaks
Friday
00:00 JPN Tokyo Core CPI November (+2.0% p.a. forecast vs +1.8% p.a. in October)
All Day USA Thanksgiving Public Holiday
Saturday
12:30 CHN Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing (Services) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) November (Manufacturing: 50.3 forecast vs 50.1 in October; Services: 50.2 forecast vs 50.2 in October)
+41.5% Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR) - Response to ASX Price Query ("No, the Company is not aware of any information concerning it that has not been announced to the market which, if known, could explain recent trading in the Company’s securities.")
+30.4% Novonix (NVX) - NOVONIX and PowerCo Sign Binding Offtake Agreement and Additional information PowerCo SE Binding Offtake Agreement, closed back above long term trend ribbon
+18.6% Electro Optic Systems (EOS) - No news since 21 Nov EOS announces divestment of EM Solutions for $144m and EM Solutions divestment - investor presentation
+18.4% SG Fleet Group (SGF) - Receipt of Non-binding Indicative Proposal
+12.4% Appen (APX) - No news, consistent with recent volatility, bounce after sharp pullback last few trading sessions, closed back above short term uptrend ribbon, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈
+11.6% Mesoblast (MSB) - No news, consistent with recent volatility, bounce after sharp pullback last few trading sessions, bounced perfectly off short term uptrend ribbon, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+11.0% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) - 4DMedical wins commercial contract with IPOC
+10.3% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - No news since 21 Nov Vulcan and BASF announce partnership agreement and Corporate Presentation Q4 2024, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends making it a ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends list regular 🔎📈
+9.8% Spartan Resources (SPR) - Operations Update - Mining Approvals Received, bounced perfectly off long term uptrend ribbon, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈
+6.9% Avita Medical (AVH) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up, making it a recent ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends list regular 🔎📈
+4.9% WA1 Resources (WA1) - No news since 22 Nov Becoming a substantial holder
+4.9% Droneshield (DRO) - No news, small bounce relative to recent decline
+4.4% Zip Co. (ZIP) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends making it a ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends list regular 🔎📈
-11.7% IPD Group (IPG) - 1H25 Earnings Guidance, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉
-6.9% Nanosonics (NAN) - No news, closed back below long term trend ribbon
-5.6% Tabcorp (TAH) - No news, bounced perfectly off long term downtrend ribbon, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉
-4.5% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) - No news, generally tough day for ASX gold sector on sharp fall in gold price in Asian trade
-4.1% Bellevue Gold (BGL) - No news, ditto tough day for ASX gold stocks
-4.0% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - No news, ditto tough day for ASX gold stocks
-3.8% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) - Change in substantial holding (reduction), not lithium prices (spodumene concentrate index nicely higher in China today), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends making it a ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends list regular 🔎📉
The A2 Milk Company (A2M)
Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.00 from $6.10
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.15 from $7.00
Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: NZ$7.35 from NZ$7.25
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.70 from $5.90
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: NZ$6.50 from NZ$6.40
Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.90 from $6.50
Aussie Broadband (ABB)
Initiated at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $4.00
Adore Beauty Group (ABY)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.50
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.20
Alkane Resources (ALK)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.25
Atlas Arteria (ALX)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.20
Autosports Group (ASG)
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.20
Accent Group (AX1)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.75 from $2.80
Chalice Mining (CHN)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.15
Capricorn Metals (CMM)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.54
Calix (CXL)
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.00
Catalyst Metals (CYL)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.30
De Grey Mining (DEG)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.82
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.20 from $2.15
Duratec (DUR)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.73 from $1.58
Genesis Minerals (GMD)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.80
Gold Road Resources (GOR)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.40
GQG Partners (GQG)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.00
Downgraded to hold from add at Morgans; Price Target: $2.47 from $3.10
Hillgrove Resources (HGO)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.10
Hansen Technologies (HSN)
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $7.20
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.50 from $6.40
Insurance Australia Group (IAG)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.00
Income Asset Management Group (IAM)
Initiated at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.09
Kogan.Com (KGN)
Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.20
Lovisa (LOV)
Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $25.45 from $25.95
Upgraded to overweight from neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $29.03 from $30.59
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $33.25
Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $36.00 from $36.50
Upgraded to hold from lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $29.20 from $30.00
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $29.00
Megaport (MP1)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $16.05
Downgraded to hold from outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $8.10 from $12.80
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $10.40 from $12.00
Downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $8.40 from $11.10
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.20 from $10.70
Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.00
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $8.65 from $10.15
Macquarie Group (MQG)
Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $177.00
Northern Star Resources (NST)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $19.55
Paladin Energy (PDN)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $12.55
Patriot Battery Metals (PMT)
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.50 from $1.80
Pantoro (PNR)
Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.13
Regis Resources (RRL)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.35
Resolute Mining (RSG)
Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.50 from $0.90
South32 (S32)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.90
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.30
Superloop (SLC)
Initiated at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.40
Initiated at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $2.50
Santana Minerals (SMI)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.07
Southern Cross Gold (SXG)
Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.05
Wisetech Global (WTC)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $140.00 from $123.75
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $138.00
Upgraded to add from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $135.30 from $114.20
Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $137.00 from $120.00
Downgraded to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $120.00 from $125.00
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