Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dips on falling consumer stocks, but gold, insurance, banks and tech stocks show solid gains

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 3.3 points lower, down 0.04%.

All things considered, "neither here nor there" is probably the best way to describe what was ultimately a rather lacklustre day’s trade for Aussie stocks.

Still, there was plenty of interesting stuff for investors who know where to look – and that's why this Evening Wrap exists!

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 and Bitcoin in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 3 points higher at 8,323, 0.48% from its session high and just 0.21% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a soggy 105 to 172.

The Gold (XGD) (+1.3%) sub-index made it three in a row in terms of the performing ASX sector today. The gold price continued to firm, albeit modestly overnight and into Asian trade today.

There was daylight between Gold and the next best performing sector, Financials (XFJ) (+0.31%). Big banks and insurance companies continue to perform strongly here and continue to offer some of the strongest trends on the market.

Next, there were a few sectors that just snuck in a gain. Thematically, these were tech-focussed Communication Services (XTJ) (+0.18%) and Information Technology (XIJ) (+0.12%) sectors, and also the commodities-based Energy (XEJ) (+0.09%) and Resources (XJR) (+0.04%) sectors.

Today’s strongest stocks from the strongest ASX sectors

All things considered, "neither here nor there" is probably the best way to describe what was ultimately a rather lacklustre day’s trade for Aussie stocks.

Where there were losses, they were fortunately only moderate, with really only consumer stocks firmly on the back foot. Consumer Staples (XSJ) (-0.68%) were dragged down by another poor performance from struggling Endeavour Group (ASX: EDV) (-2.3%). Endeavour has the ignominious honour of being one of the most Featured charts this year in my ChartWatch Daily ASX Scans Downtrends lists.

Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-0.82%) suffered at the hands of poor performances from Accent Group (ASX: AX1) (-11.1%) and WEB Travel Group (ASX: WEB) (-4.2%). Accent's decline was due to a disappointing trading update, while WEB was reinstatement to official quotation after warning the market its first half results release would be delayed.

Today’s weakest stocks from the weakest ASX sectors

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Nothing goes up in a straight line!

The last time we covered was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 19 November.

In that update, we noted all was not quite right with that day’s tickle of a new all time high. The giveaway was the long upward pointing shadow in that session’s candle.

Upward pointing shadows point to excess supply in the market. If that supply was there in that session, it might well be there in the next. Also consider that technical analysts like me who know what to look for, see those upward pointing shadows and therefore become more reluctant to buy into the market at higher prices. That is, some of the market will withhold demand.

So, in an environment of latent supply and withheld demand at those higher prices – it can be tough for the market to crack the high set by the upward pointing shadow.

Looking at the couple of candles since, I think this is what we’re seeing.

The bigger the upward pointing shadow, the likely bigger the impact it will have on the market. So, in this case I suggest it’s more likely to be a short term impediment rather than something more sinister.

It may take a few sessions to work through the present malaise. Watch for demand-side candles (i.e., white-bodied and or downward pointing shadows) to kick off the trend again. In particular, watch for them at the short term uptrend ribbon which typically acts as a zone of dynamic demand. It’s starts around 8260.

I’d prefer not to see a close below the short term trend ribbon, that’s when I would begin to think something more sinister is going on. Definitely, I don’t want to see the XJO price close below the critical point of demand at 8063.

Until either of those events, I have no reason not to back the prevailing short and long term trends here.

Bitcoin vs US Dollar (BTCUSD)

Going up in a straight line! 😁

The last time we covered Bitcoin was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 6 November.

In that update, it had just logged a major fingerprint of excess demand – a long white candle with a high close. Even better/more importantly, that close also took the Bitcoin price above the major historical point of supply from the March peak.

I noted “both the daily and weekly charts of Bitcoin show strong and increasing demand-side control” and used a technical analysis method called a “measured move” to project a potential finger-to-the-wind target of 98,059.

Not terrible analysis at all. 🎯

Bitcoin looks like it’s on a mission here to knock 6 figures. I can’t see anything in the technicals to suggest there’s even close to enough supply-side impetus – nor lack of demand-side commitment – to prevent it from getting there.

As always, you’ll know when this market state changes. You’ll begin to see black-bodied candles and or upward pointing shadows. The longer the bodies/shadows, the greater is the amount of excess supply manifesting itself. Also watch out for falling peaks and or falling troughs.

Until then, you’re either on the rocket ship headed to the moon, or you’re standing on the ground gazing up at that rocket ship and scratching your head as to how you missed this whole Bitcoin phenomenon. 😭

If you’re in the latter camp, it could be worse, you could be the guy who paid for 2 pizzas back in 2010 for 10,000 Bitcoin (now worth US$968 million)! 🍕🚀

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Friday

• 09:00 AUS Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) October (was 47.3 in September) & Flash Services PMI October (was 51.0 in September)

• 19:15 EUR Various countries Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs October (Germany: Manufacturing forecast 43.1 vs 43.0 in September & Services 51.8 forecast vs 51.6 in September; Eurozone: Manufacturing forecast no change at 46.0 & Services forecast no change at 51.6)

Saturday

• 01:45 US Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) October (was 47.3 in September) & Flash Services PMI October (was 51.0 in September)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +11.8% PWR Holdings (PWH) - Bounce from massive falling due to yesterday's PWR Trading Update, helped by 3 x broker rating upgrades to BUY (see Broker Moves section below)

• +6.9% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - No news since yesterday's Vulcan and BASF announce partnership agreement and Corporate Presentation Q4 2024, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, is one of the most Featured charts in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists over the last couple of months 🔎📈

• +6.8% WA1 Resources (WA1) - No news since 19 Nov Annual General Meeting Presentation and 15 Nov West Arunta Project - Luni Drilling Update, has strung together some decent demand-side candles to get itself back above the long term trend ribbon

• +4.3% Sigma Healthcare (SIG) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, another heavily Featured chart in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +4.0% Iperionx (IPX) - No news since Nov 19 IperionX 2024 Sustainability Report, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, another heavily Featured chart in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +3.3% Amcor (AMC) - Positive response to yesterday's Amcor & Berry Announcement, generally well accepted by the brokers facilitating one rating upgrade today (see Broker Moves section below)

• +3.3% Gold Road Resources (GOR) - No news, generally stronger ASX gold sector today on continued firming of the gold price

• +3.2% Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI) - Continued positive response to yesterday's Pinnacle successfully completes $400m placement, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, again, this is one of the most Featured charts in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +2.9% Northern Star Resources (NST) - Ditto stronger ASX gold sector today

Trading lower

• -19.3% GQG Partners (GQG) - Update on GQG's Strategy Investments in Adani Gp Companies

• -14.0% Close The Loop (CLG) - No news today, volatility likely due to non-binding proposal to acquire 100% of the company via a Scheme of Arrangement from private equity funds manager Adamantem Capital for A$0.27/shr. See Chair's Address to Shareholders and Receipt of indicative, non-binding & conditional proposal

• -12.8% Weebit Nano (WBT) - No news, consistent with recent extreme volatility, possibly an element of Trump Trade vs Trump Trade unwind…

• -11.1% Accent Group (AX1) - Trading Update and 2024 AGM Presentation

• -10.5% Sayona Mining (SYA) - No news, takeover partner PLL also sharply lower today, note though, both stocks upgraded to NEUTRAL by Macquarie (see Broker Moves section below)

• -9.4% Electro Optic Systems (EOS) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• -9.2% Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) - No news, consistent with recent extreme volatility, possibly an element of Trump Trade vs Trump Trade unwind…

• -7.5% Imugene (IMU) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, is one of the most Featured charts in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉

Broker Notes

• Amcor (AMC)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $17.00

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $15.75

  • Upgraded to hold from lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $15.50 from $14.10

• Accent Group (AX1)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.57

• Bellevue Gold (BGL)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.65

• BHP Group (BHP)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $46.85

• Bluescope Steel (BSL)

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $21.90

• Cochlear (COH)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $305.00

• De Grey Mining (DEG)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.20

• DGL Group (DGL)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.53 from $0.55

• Elders (ELD)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $9.52 from $9.50

• EML Payments (EML)

  • Upgraded to overweight from neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $1.00 from $0.85

• Evolution Mining (EVN)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.25

• Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation (FPH)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: NZ$41.80 from NZ$39.20

• Genesis Minerals (GMD)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.80

• Gold Road Resources (GOR)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.30

• Harvey Norman (HVN)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.00

• Iperionx (IPX)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.25 from $3.95

• JB HI-FI (JBH)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $66.90

• Laramide Resources (LAM)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.30

• LGI (LGI)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.55 from $3.40

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.60

• Metcash (MTS)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.10

• Nick Scali (NCK)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $15.31 from $15.93

• Newmont Corporation (NEM)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $82.00

• Nickel Industries (NIC)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.05

• Northern Star Resources (NST)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $18.95

• Netwealth Group (NWL)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $27.80 from $26.00

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $27.00

• Nexgen Energy (NXG)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $16.20

• Piedmont Lithium (PLL)

  • Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.21 from $0.11

• Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.90

• Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $21.40 from $19.30

• Perseus Mining (PRU)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.10

• PWR Holdings (PWH)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.00 from $9.75

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Carter Bar Securities; Price Target: $8.53 from $9.70

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $9.45 from $10.85

  • Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $8.74 from $11.43

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $7.50 from $10.80

• QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $21.00 from $19.00

• Regis Resources (RRL)

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $1.95

• Seek (SEK)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $30.00

• Sonic Healthcare (SHL)

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $28.06 from $25.88

  • Retained at lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $23.85 from $23.50

• SRG Global (SRG)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.40

• SSR Mining (SSR)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.90

• Santos (STO)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $7.40 from $7.90

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.40 from $8.50

• Super Retail Group (SUL)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $17.60

• Sayona Mining (SYA)

  • Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.04 from $0.02

• Tasmea (TEA)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.50

• Wesfarmers (WES)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $69.50 from $66.60

• Wisetech Global (WTC)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $124.50

Scans