News | Market Wraps
Evening Wrap: ASX 200 cheers likely Trump win (except mining, especially battery metals stocks which got belted!)
The S&P/ASX 200 closed 67.7 points higher, up 0.83%.
Mentioned
The S&P/ASX 200 closed 67.7 points higher, up 0.83%.
Today's ASX winners and losers were clearly delineated: Perceived Trump-win beneficiaries vs Perceived Trump-win losers.
If you haven't been glued to one of the many news outlets covering the the US presidential election, former President Trump (get ready to drop the word "Former") is leading the early count.
Trump-win beneficiaries include those stocks with large US sourced earnings, as a Trump presidency and what looks likely to be a Congressional sweep, is perceived to be more bullish than any form of Harris win. Losers, mining and energy stocks took a hit (Hint: those invested in battery metals stocks might prefer NOT to...)
Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.
Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the NASDAQ Composite, S&P/ASX 200, and (WARNING: Super interesting!) Bitcoin in today's ChartWatch.
Let's dive in!
Today in Review
Wed 06 Nov 24, 5:03pm (AEST)
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Major Indices | ||
| ASX 200 | 8,199.5 | +0.83% |
| All Ords | 8,456.0 | +0.81% |
| Small Ords | 3,150.0 | +0.94% |
| All Tech | 3,609.7 | +2.24% |
| Emerging Companies | 2,270.8 | +0.16% |
Currency | ||
| AUD/USD | 0.6554 | -1.27% |
US Futures | ||
| S&P 500 | 5,882.75 | +1.21% |
| Dow Jones | 42,945.0 | +1.33% |
| Nasdaq | 20,580.75 | +1.18% |
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Sector | ||
| Information Technology | 2,669.2 | +1.89% |
| Financials | 8,564.5 | +1.61% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 3,734.2 | +1.54% |
| Industrials | 7,394.7 | +1.03% |
| Communication Services | 1,632.9 | +0.94% |
| Health Care | 44,666.6 | +0.91% |
| Consumer Staples | 11,534.3 | +0.40% |
| Utilities | 8,417.3 | +0.13% |
| Materials | 17,287.5 | -0.00% |
| Real Estate | 3,903.9 | -0.52% |
| Energy | 8,544.3 | -1.22% |
Markets
ASX 200 Session Chart
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 67.7 points higher at 8,199.5, 0.83% from its session low and just 0.30% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a commendable 202 to 76.
Aussie stock winners and losers fell on either side of the Trump-win play book. Very broadly, a Trump win (and what is looking increasingly likely as a House and Senate sweep) is widely considered bullish for US stocks – and by extension – stocks here.
Stocks with US earnings exposure like Zip Co. (ASX: ZIP) (+6.4%), Bluescope Steel (ASX: BSL) (+5.7%), Alcoa Corporation (ASX: AAI) (+4.7%), Light & Wonder (ASX: LNW) (+4.7%), and Block (ASX: SQ2) (+4.6%) among others.
More generally, Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.9%), Financials (XFJ) (+1.6%), and Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+1.5%) did very well. Interestingly, Uranium stocks as a group also did well.
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brainchip (BRN) | $0.270 | +$0.035 | +14.9% | +3.8% | +63.6% |
Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) | $13.27 | +$1. | +8.2% | -2.5% | +30.4% |
Temple & Webster Group (TPW) | $11.80 | +$0.72 | +6.5% | -10.1% | +85.0% |
Zip Co. (ZIP) | $3.14 | +$0.19 | +6.4% | +15.4% | +851.5% |
Bluescope Steel (BSL) | $21.73 | +$1.17 | +5.7% | -1.6% | +11.4% |
Avita Medical (AVH) | $3.56 | +$0.18 | +5.3% | +14.8% | +9.5% |
Austal (ASB) | $3.42 | +$0.17 | +5.2% | +23.9% | +92.7% |
Alcoa Corporation (AAI) | $64.84 | +$2.9 | +4.7% | +14.2% | 0% |
Light & Wonder (LNW) | $149.70 | +$6.65 | +4.6% | +6.8% | +26.9% |
PWR Holdings (PWH) | $9.46 | +$0.42 | +4.6% | +5.5% | -6.5% |
Elders (ELD) | $8.77 | +$0.38 | +4.5% | +4.3% | +41.5% |
Sims (SGM) | $13.10 | +$0.54 | +4.3% | +2.8% | +3.2% |
Megaport (MP1) | $7.07 | +$0.29 | +4.3% | -3.4% | -30.3% |
Nuix (NXL) | $7.61 | +$0.31 | +4.2% | +16.4% | +415.9% |
Block (SQ2) | $114.90 | +$4.52 | +4.1% | +18.2% | +41.5% |
News Corporation (NWS) | $46.10 | +$1.79 | +4.0% | +12.1% | +34.2% |
Tuas (TUA) | $5.24 | +$0.2 | +4.0% | -1.9% | +164.6% |
Challenger (CGF) | $6.21 | +$0.23 | +3.8% | -7.3% | +3.5% |
Ingenia Communities Group (INA) | $4.87 | +$0.17 | +3.6% | -1.6% | +18.2% |
QBE Insurance Group (QBE) | $17.62 | +$0.61 | +3.6% | +9.6% | +12.4% |
The strongest stocks on the ASX today
Losers included stocks with exposure to Chinese economic growth including Resources (XJR) (-0.36%) and Energy (XEJ) (-1.2%). A Trump win raises risks of a new trade war between the USA and China, to be spearheaded by highly punitive Trump tariffs.
Perhaps the most notable sub-group that suffered most acutely today were stocks focussed on battery metals production. Proposed Trump policy more than hints at big tariffs on Chinese EV manufacturers, and domestically within the US on the possible removal of EV-related subsidies and tax breaks.
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ioneer (INR) | $0.230 | -$0.025 | -9.8% | +9.5% | +48.4% |
Chalice Mining (CHN) | $1.780 | -$0.155 | -8.0% | +17.9% | -8.7% |
IGO (IGO) | $5.06 | -$0.3 | -5.6% | -7.8% | -47.8% |
Latin Resources (LRS) | $0.190 | -$0.01 | -5.0% | -7.3% | -29.6% |
Liontown Resources (LTR) | $0.785 | -$0.035 | -4.3% | -6.0% | -52.6% |
WA1 Resources (WA1) | $13.65 | -$0.48 | -3.4% | -6.1% | +46.0% |
Ramelius Resources (RMS) | $2.25 | -$0.07 | -3.0% | +5.6% | +39.3% |
Pilbara Minerals (PLS) | $2.91 | -$0.09 | -3.0% | -3.0% | -22.4% |
Develop Global (DVP) | $2.35 | -$0.07 | -2.9% | -0.8% | -28.1% |
Resolute Mining (RSG) | $0.745 | -$0.02 | -2.6% | +7.2% | +104.1% |
Mineral Resources (MIN) | $37.25 | -$0.95 | -2.5% | -27.3% | -39.0% |
Bellevue Gold (BGL) | $1.500 | -$0.035 | -2.3% | +13.6% | +7.5% |
Santos (STO) | $6.64 | -$0.15 | -2.2% | -8.4% | -10.5% |
Iperionx (IPX) | $3.27 | -$0.07 | -2.1% | -3.8% | +168.0% |
Perseus Mining (PRU) | $2.74 | -$0.05 | -1.8% | +7.9% | +62.1% |
Woodside Energy Group (WDS) | $23.49 | -$0.41 | -1.7% | -10.8% | -30.9% |
West African Resources (WAF) | $1.720 | -$0.03 | -1.7% | +19.4% | +130.9% |
Beach Energy (BPT) | $1.245 | -$0.02 | -1.6% | -2.4% | -18.4% |
Emerald Resources (EMR) | $4.06 | -$0.06 | -1.5% | +7.7% | +59.8% |
Karoon Energy (KAR) | $1.370 | -$0.02 | -1.4% | -14.6% | -45.1% |
The weakest stocks on the ASX today
ChartWatch
NASDAQ Composite Index
%20chart%206%20November%202024.png)
Demand is 18083. It’s a key level now. (click here for full size image)
The last time we covered Comp was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 30 October.
In that update, it had just tipped a new all time high. The gap-and-black-candle-low-close on 31 October was a strong supply-side showing – demonstrating that no matter how clear a chart may appear – the future is unknown, and anything can happen.
Quite possibly that move was to do with investors trying to flatten out positions ahead of this week’s major risk events (US presidential election and Federal Reserve meeting on Friday). Quite possibly not – the chart doesn’t provide this type of information.
What we as technical analysts must interpret is that the short term trend is at threat, and that we are now likely in more of an equilibrium market. It would be sensible therefore to refrain from adding new long-side risk and to be increasingly attentive for signs further confirming the supply-side is taking decisive control of the price.
Fortunately, so far, that last scenario has not played out – on the contrary – last night’s full white candle closing back out of the short term uptrend ribbon is an encouraging sign the demand-side is still kicking about.
Ideally, we see a similar strong showing tonight – to close at least above the balance point (midpoint) of the 18786-18083 break. I did the math, that means a close above 18435. This effectively rights the short term trend ship, and a subsequent high candle close towards 18786 would set us up for a resumption of the short term uptrend as well as new record highs.
Demand is 18083. It’s a key level now. As long as we continue to close above it, we’re probably OK here. Below it, then it’s potentially a slippery slope back to the long term uptrend ribbon – particularly if 17767 goes.
S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)
%20chart%206%20November%202024.png)
An interesting chart (click here for full size image)
The last time we covered the XJO was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 1 November.
In that update, I noted that despite the push from 8385 to that session’s precarious low of 8063, the technicals were “consistent with short term neutrality, but justifiable long term bullishness”.
Little has changed in the three candles since, two white and one black. Today’s close puts us smack-bang back in the middle of the short term trend ribbon (now neutral). The modest upward pointing shadow on today’s candle shows that ribbon is doing its job of acting as an area of dynamic supply (it was going to be much larger if not for that last hour rally).
Above it sits the static supply points of 8273 and ultimately, 8385. A close above 8273 is a minimum requirement to recommence the short term uptrend.
Today’s showing is important in setting 8063 as a critical point of demand. A close below it would confirm the transition to a short term downtrend, and also likely seal the deal on a subsequent test of the dynamic demand at the long term uptrend ribbon.
I have outlined two clear and opposing scenarios here. We are stuck in an equilibrium market until either one plays out.
Bitcoin vs US Dollar
What would Satoshi say about this chart!? 🤔 (click here for full size image)
I don’t think I’ve covered this one in ChartWatch before, but thought given there’s plenty of rhetoric surrounding this one and the outcome of the US presidential election, it was worth a showing.
Whatever you think of Bitcoin or of cryptocurrencies in general, one cannot doubt that the demand-side is taking increasing control of the price in the chart above. If today’s candle can close around present levels (74,700) or higher it will be a record high close for the OG digital currency, and a break out from a long and well defined trading range.
Bitcoin vs US Dollar weekly chart (click here for full size image)
See above the weekly chart to further put this possible breakout into perspective. Using a measured move of the move into the trading zone of 24,915 (Sep 23 low) to 73,757 (Mar 24 high), and projecting from the August low of 49,217 one gets 98,059.
What does that mean? I don’t do targets. That’s not a prediction, it’s an observation of a well-known technical analysis method.
What I can say is that both the daily and weekly charts of Bitcoin show strong and increasing demand-side control from rising short and long term uptrend ribbons, good price action (rising peaks and rising troughs), and a predominance of demand-side candles (i.e., white-bodied and or downward pointing shadows).
Also note in both cases, but particularly in the daily chart, just how well the trend ribbons are acting as dynamic demand.
Bitcoin’s short term uptrend remains intact until a close below the short term trend ribbon presently at 67,450-68,800, but I also note important static points of demand at 66,824 (4 Nov trough low) and 65,153 (23 Oct trough low).
Economy
Today
There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today
Later this week
Thursday
12:00 CNY Trade Balance October (RMB 560 billion forecast vs RMB 583 billion September)
UK Bank of England (BOE) Official Bank Rate announcement and Monetary Policy Summary
Friday
06:00 USA FOMC Meeting and Federal Fund Rate announcement (-0.25% forecast to 4.50-4.75%)
06:30 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell press conference
Saturday
02:00 USA University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (70.6 forecast vs 70.5 previous)
12:30 CHN Consumer Price Index (CPI) October y/y (+0.3% p.a. vs +0.4% p.a. in September)
12:30 CHN Producer Price Index (PPI) October y/y (-2.5% p.a. vs -2.8% p.a. in September)
Latest News
Interesting Movers
Trading higher
+14.9% Brainchip (BRN) - No news, generally stronger ASX Tech sector today on rising US counterparts, closed back above short term trend ribbon
+8.2% Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) - PRV sold for US$150m - Neuren to receive one third
+6.5% Temple & Webster Group (TPW) - No news, bounced perfectly from long term trend ribbon 🔎📈
+6.4% Zip Co. (ZIP) - Change of Director's Interest Notice - K Moss (on market purchase), possibly also large US exposure and therefore benefitting from Trump leading in early counting (Trump is generally seen as the more bullish outcome for US economy/stock market), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists) 🔎📈
+6.3% Appen (APX) - No news, ditto strong ASX Tech stocks and US earnings exposure, also bouncing nicely from long term trend ribbon 🔎📈
+6.1% Cooper Energy (COE) - FY25 production guidance increase
+5.9% Novonix (NVX) - No news
+5.7% Bluescope Steel (BSL) - No news, ditto US earnings exposure, also closed back above long term trend ribbon 🔎📈
+5.3% Avita Medical (AVH) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up (made the Uptrends list in today's ChartWatch Daily Scans) 🔎📈
+5.2% Austal (ASB) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists) 🔎📈
+5.1% Adairs (ADH) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists) 🔎📈
+4.7% Alcoa Corporation (AAI) - No news, ditto US earnings exposure
+4.6% Light & Wonder (LNW) - No news, ditto US earnings exposure
Trading lower
-9.8% Ioneer (INR) - No news, likely negative sentiment resulting from Trump leading early US presidential election vote count. Trump is generally considered more likely to increase tariffs on Chinese EV manufacturers and limit domestic US EV subsidies and tax breaks, therefore being potentially bearish for battery metals stocks
-9.1% Galan Lithium (GLN) - Ditto Trump win fears vs battery metals stocks
-8.0% Chalice Mining (CHN) - Ditto Trump win fears vs battery metals stocks
-5.6% IGO (IGO) - 2024 AGM Presentation and Chair's Address to Shareholders at 2024 AGM, but more likely ditto Trump win fears vs battery metals stocks
-5.6% Domain Australia (DHG) - AGM Addresses and Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists) 🔎📈
-5.0% Latin Resources (LRS) - Ditto Trump win fears vs battery metals stocks
-4.7% Wildcat Resources (WC8) - Change in substantial holding from MIN (decrease), but likely also some ditto Trump win fears vs battery metals stocks
-4.3% Liontown Resources (LTR) - Ditto Trump win fears vs battery metals stocks
-3.4% WA1 Resources (WA1) - Ditto Trump win fears vs battery metals stocks
-3.1% Nine Entertainment (NEC) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (one of the most Featured stocks in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists) 🔎📈
-3.0% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) - Ditto Trump win fears vs battery metals stocks
-2.9% Develop Global (DVP) - Ditto Trump win fears vs battery metals stocks
Broker Notes
Austal (ASB)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.75 from $3.15
Brightstar Resources (BTR)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.06
Domain Australia (DHG)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.65
Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $37.50 from $28.50
Downgraded to negative from neutral at E&P; Price Target: $29.20 from $35.39
Downgraded to underweight from neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $30.60 from $34.00
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $32.20 from $35.00
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $44.00
Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $31.00
Dreadnought Resources (DRE)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.05
Elders (ELD)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.75 from $9.65
Goodman Group (GMG)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $40.00
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $36.47
Infomedia (IFM)
Initiated at buy at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $1.88
James Hardie Industries (JHX)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $50.90
Nufarm (NUF)
Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $3.65
Objective Corporation (OCL)
Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $17.00 from $15.00
Plenti Group (PLT)
Initiated at buy at Unified Capital Partners; Price Target: $1.40
Ramsay Health Care (RHC)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $42.00 from $44.00
St Barbara (SBM)
Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.49
Santos (STO)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.60 from $8.50
Suncorp Group (SUN)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.00
The Lottery Corporation (TLC)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.60
Toubani Resources (TRE)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.25
Vicinity Centres (VCX)
Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.35
Woodside Energy Group (WDS)
Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $23.00
Scans
Top Gainers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| AIV | Activex Ltd | $0.014 | +40.00% |
| TAR | Taruga Minerals Ltd | $0.013 | +30.00% |
| NVU | Nanoveu Ltd | $0.048 | +29.73% |
| NME | NEX Metals Exploration Ltd | $0.036 | +28.57% |
| CDX | Cardiex Ltd | $0.12 | +25.00% |
Top Fallers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| FCG | Freedom Care Group Holdings Ltd | $0.07 | -46.15% |
| ILT | Iltani Resources Ltd | $0.18 | -20.00% |
| BSX | Blackstone Minerals Ltd | $0.028 | -17.65% |
| CUS | Copper Search Ltd | $0.035 | -16.67% |
| RHK | Red Hawk Mining Ltd | $0.69 | -16.36% |
52 Week Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| TAR | Taruga Minerals Ltd | $0.013 | +30.00% |
| CDX | Cardiex Ltd | $0.12 | +25.00% |
| PWN | Parkway Corporate Ltd | $0.013 | +13.04% |
| TYP | Tryptamine Therapeutics Ltd | $0.037 | +12.12% |
| VBTC | Vaneck Bitcoin ETF | $23.50 | +11.37% |
52 Week Lows
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| FCG | Freedom Care Group Holdings Ltd | $0.07 | -46.15% |
| CPO | Culpeo Minerals Ltd | $0.025 | -13.79% |
| RAU | Resouro Strategic Metals Inc | $0.255 | -10.53% |
| ATM | Aneka Tambang (Persero) TBK (PT) | $0.86 | -9.47% |
| PGY | Pilot Energy Ltd | $0.013 | -7.14% |
Near Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCI | Perpetual Credit Income Trust | $1.155 | +0.43% |
| WVOL | Ishares MSCI World Ex Aust Minimum Volatility ETF | $41.68 | +1.68% |
| GCI | Gryphon Capital Income Trust | $2.04 | -0.49% |
| VVLU | Vanguard Global Value Equity Active ETF (Managed Fund) | $72.72 | +2.80% |
| IHD | Ishares S&P/ASX DIV Opportunities Esg Screened ETF | $14.33 | +1.27% |
Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTS | Metcash Ltd | $3.10 | +1.97% |
| ULTB | Ishares 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Bond (Hedged) ETF | $94.02 | -1.96% |
| VAF | Vanguard Australian Fixed Interest INDEX ETF | $44.91 | -0.27% |
| PLUS | Vaneck Australian Corporate Bond Plus ETF | $16.55 | -0.48% |
| VGB | Vanguard Australian Government Bond INDEX ETF | $45.63 | -0.22% |
