Market Wraps

Evening Wrap: ASX 200 tips new record on surging gold, energy and tech stocks, lithium stocks tank despite rising lithium price

Tue 19 Nov 24, 6:00pm (AEDT)

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The S&P/ASX 200 closed 73.8 points higher, up 0.89%.

Gold stocks logged a welcome return to form today on the back of a tidy bounce in the gold (and silver) price. Also resuming their winning ways were technology stocks, which unlike their golden cousins, have been on an absolute tear since the US election. Big news from sector heavyweight Technology One (TNE) drove gains there. Elsewhere, energy stocks are again stirring on rising energy commodity prices.

If there was a laggard, it was the Resources sector more generally. It stalled on falls in key base metals prices, but interestingly in spite of tidy gains in the prices of iron ore and lithium in Asia today.

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 and Brent Crude Oil in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!


Today in Review

Tue 19 Nov 24, 5:23pm (AEDT)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
ASX 200 8,374.0 +0.89%
All Ords 8,629.2 +0.87%
Small Ords 3,154.2 +0.69%
All Tech 3,896.4 +2.69%
Emerging Companies 2,283.9 +1.13%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6508 0.00%
US Futures
S&P 500 5,926.75 +0.11%
Dow Jones 43,576.0 +0.08%
Nasdaq 20,665.5 +0.16%
Name Value % Chg
Sector
Information Technology 2,929.3 +3.12%
Communication Services 1,694.0 +1.52%
Energy 8,762.4 +1.45%
Industrials 7,675.7 +1.42%
Financials 8,964.2 +1.01%
Utilities 8,958.0 +0.96%
Consumer Discretionary 3,918.7 +0.89%
Real Estate 3,986.2 +0.71%
Health Care 43,793.3 +0.64%
Consumer Staples 11,583.5 +0.45%
Materials 16,719.6 +0.13%

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Markets

XJO Intraday Chart 19 November 2024
ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 73.8 points higher at 8,374.0 – smack–bang at the mid-point of the session's range. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a respectable 192 to 90.

The Gold (XGD) (+3.7%) sub-index delivered a welcome return to form today on the back of a tidy bounce in the gold (and silver) price in northern hemisphere trade on Monday and a decent follow through in Asia today. Spartan Resources (ASX: SPR) (+10.3%), De Grey Mining (ASX: DEG) (+6.1%), and Ora Banda Mining (ASX: OBM) (+5.5%) were among the best, but even the recently hobbled Resolute Mining (ASX: RSG) (+10.5%) got in on the act.

Gold Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX chart 19 November 2024
Gold Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

This isn’t ChartWatch, but it’s worth noting Monday’s rally appears to be respecting the dynamic demand we'd ordinarily expect at the long term uptrend ribbon.

Also resuming its winning ways, was Information Technology (XIJ) (+3.1%). Unlike gold, which has tanked since the US election, it’s been an exact opposite near-straight line up for this sector (just small dip yesterday!).

Today, sector heavyweights Technology One (ASX: TNE) (+10.0%) (full year results release), Xero (ASX: XRO) (+3.7%) (still feeling the love after strong half-year results last week) logged the biggest increases. Catapult Group International (ASX: CAT) (+4.9%) (ditto great half-year results last week) rounded an incredible trio of regular Feature charts in my ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends list.

Energy (XEJ) (+1.5%) deserves the other notable mention among today’s major sector winners. Both carbon-based and uranium-based energy stocks performed well here.

I have some analysis for you on the crude oil price for you in today’s ChartWatch section below, and for uranium – in this article about the recent Russian ban on exports of enriched uranium to the USA.

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

Resolute Mining (RSG)

$0.420

+$0.04

+10.5%

-50.0%

+10.5%

Technology One (TNE)

$29.45

+$2.69

+10.1%

+19.5%

+82.1%

De Grey Mining (DEG)

$1.490

+$0.085

+6.1%

+3.1%

+26.0%

Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

$0.765

+$0.04

+5.5%

-10.5%

+337.1%

Pantoro (PNR)

$0.105

+$0.005

+5.0%

-16.0%

+144.2%

Catapult Group International (CAT)

$3.22

+$0.15

+4.9%

+23.8%

+198.1%

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

$2.42

+$0.11

+4.8%

-2.0%

+61.9%

Northern Star Resources (NST)

$16.90

+$0.65

+4.0%

-2.9%

+49.3%

Regis Resources (RRL)

$2.65

+$0.1

+3.9%

-3.6%

+46.4%

West African Resources (WAF)

$1.460

+$0.055

+3.9%

-14.6%

+82.5%

Iperionx (IPX)

$3.82

+$0.14

+3.8%

+12.4%

+157.2%

Xero (XRO)

$176.88

+$6.33

+3.7%

+17.1%

+76.8%

Gold Road Resources (GOR)

$1.825

+$0.065

+3.7%

-6.2%

+2.0%

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

$2.06

+$0.07

+3.5%

-16.9%

+34.2%

Fineos Corporation (FCL)

$2.10

+$0.07

+3.4%

+52.2%

+16.7%

Evolution Mining (EVN)

$4.90

+$0.16

+3.4%

-7.5%

+29.6%

Viva Energy Group (VEA)

$2.65

+$0.08

+3.1%

-7.0%

-11.4%

Catalyst Metals (CYL)

$2.82

+$0.08

+2.9%

-19.7%

+257.0%

New Hope Corporation (NHC)

$4.95

+$0.14

+2.9%

-0.4%

-5.4%

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

$1.300

+$0.035

+2.8%

-16.7%

-9.7%

Perseus Mining (PRU)

$2.60

+$0.07

+2.8%

-12.2%

+50.3%

Paladin Energy (PDN)

$7.90

+$0.21

+2.7%

-39.3%

-18.6%

Nexgen Energy (NXG)

$12.18

+$0.29

+2.4%

-1.1%

+28.2%

Wisetech Global (WTC)

$138.84

+$3.21

+2.4%

+32.7%

+107.6%

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

$65.27

+$1.28

+2.0%

-24.7%

+17.1%

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

$24.56

+$0.46

+1.9%

-1.6%

-23.6%

Bannerman Energy (BMN)

$2.85

+$0.05

+1.8%

-14.7%

+8.4%

The best stocks from the strongest ASX sectors today

All eleven major ASX sectors closed in the black today, but if you could say one sector did it tough – it would be Resources (XJR) (+0.13%).

Nothing too sinister here, likely simply responding to weaker base metals prices overnight. Contrasting this, the iron ore price is up for a second day in Singapore today, and lithium carbonate futures are up strongly in China.

Perversely, both iron ore and lithium stocks fell today, the latter group rather harshly so. Go figure 🤔.

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

Latin Resources (LRS)

$0.190

-$0.015

-7.3%

0%

-9.5%

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

$2.93

-$0.16

-5.2%

+6.2%

-17.9%

Liontown Resources (LTR)

$0.810

-$0.035

-4.1%

-4.1%

-44.9%

Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL)

$6.25

-$0.23

-3.5%

+29.7%

+130.6%

IGO (IGO)

$5.00

-$0.14

-2.7%

-6.9%

-43.5%

South32 (S32)

$3.67

-$0.1

-2.7%

-0.5%

+15.8%

Coronado Global Resources (CRN)

$0.955

-$0.025

-2.6%

-12.8%

-38.6%

Mineral Resources (MIN)

$34.85

-$0.61

-1.7%

-11.9%

-44.3%

Vulcan Steel (VSL)

$7.60

-$0.12

-1.6%

-7.0%

+5.6%

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

$7.04

-$0.11

-1.5%

-9.4%

+2.0%

Champion Iron (CIA)

$5.46

-$0.07

-1.3%

-14.4%

-30.0%

Fortescue (FMG)

$17.75

-$0.2

-1.1%

-10.5%

-29.6%

Stanmore Resources (SMR)

$3.14

-$0.02

-0.6%

+7.9%

-13.5%

Nickel Industries (NIC)

$0.925

-$0.005

-0.5%

-4.1%

+19.4%

Rio Tinto (RIO)

$115.70

-$0.51

-0.4%

-3.4%

-7.6%

Chalice Mining (CHN)

$1.415

-$0.005

-0.4%

-28.5%

-13.2%

WA1 Resources (WA1)

$14.50

-$0.03

-0.2%

+11.2%

+41.7%

BHP Group (BHP)

$40.31

-$0.05

-0.1%

-5.5%

-13.4%

The worst stocks from the weakest ASX sectors today

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P-ASX 200 (XJO) chart 19 November 2024
An interesting chart

The last time we covered XJO was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 14 November.

In that update, I noted its chart was beginning to resemble a “sleeping zebra” – sideways, with alternating black and white candles.

Over the last three trading sessions since, it appears the zebra is stirring. At least it was at today’s all-time intraday high of 8446.4 (taking out the previous all-time intraday high of 8385).

8374. That was the close. Nowhere near 8446.4.

When new highs are met by sustained FOMO buying combined with “I don’t care how high prices are…There’s no way I’m selling here!” from the supply-side – you get a close at the high of the session.

We didn’t get that today.

Either the supply side was happy to let some go into the early buying pressure, or the demand-side ran out of ammo…or some combination of the two.

So, as good as it is we at least attempted to make a new all-time high today, that close is somewhat disappointing!

Still, it does give us an important marker as to where latent supply is lurking in the system (i.e., around 8450-ish). If this area is reinforced in the price action with a subsequent upward pointing shadow into 8450-ish, and then a low candle close – it would point to an increasing trend of supply-side motivation.

Alternatively, if we can dispense with today’s high quickly, or at the very least close above 8385 – it will signal growing demand-side confidence and a supply-side in retreat.

Overall, one must continue to acknowledge the strong short and long-term uptrend here. Price action is also nicely back to rising peaks and rising troughs, and the candles are again skewed towards demand-side predominance.

There’s a logjam of potential points of demand between 8226 and 8063 as well as dynamic demand from the short term uptrend ribbon. As long as we avoid closing deep into that range, and without any long black candles/upward pointing shadows/lower peaks of note…the path of least resistance for Aussie stocks remains UP⬆️.

Brent Crude Oil Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) ICE

Brent Crude Oil Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) ICE Chart 19 November 2024
One (interesting) demand-side candle does not a trend make!

The last time we covered Brent was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 4 November.

In that update, the price was converging into an ever-tighter and trading range. I noted “There’s nothing to see here for a trend follower”.

Since then, the Brent price has continued to chop within a trading range that’s becoming increasingly defined by 69.56-69-90 below and 76.19 above.

Sure, there’s still nothing here for a trend follower, but yesterday’s long white candle does represent a glimmer of demand-side intent that has been lacking since the China stimulus rally petered out in October (Note: the last candle is the current session – and given it’s live we must discount it).

Forget the short term trend ribbon with respect to dynamic demand/supply, it’s a bust for now. The long term trend ribbon, however, is far more likely to provide some stiff upside resistance. It will kick in around 75.70.

Look, I’m not going to get ahead of things here, this is merely a follow up because we haven’t done this one for a while. But, assuming 69.56-69.90 holds, there’s some impetus based on that last candle to at least explore the dynamic supply of the long term downtrend ribbon and potentially also 76.19.

Above that, there’s plenty of other major historical supply points to contend with and cap.

A close below 69.56 likely sets up a test of 65.31-68.20.

In the meantime, with demand to the left of us, supply to the right, here we are…stuck in the middle with crude! 🎶.


Economy

Today

  • AUS RBA November Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

    • Nothing groundbreaking we didn't know, but did update for recent news events since last meeting like China stimulus (de-risks Australian economy somewhat, but likely minimal impact) and US election (flagged risk of trade war but stopped short of drawing major adverse conclusions for Australia as most trade likely to be redirected, possible heightened risk/volatility in sovereign debt markets due to expected larger US deficit)

    • As for Aussie economy, consumer activity remains strong and labour market tight, inflation was likely being held back by electricity rebates and moderating fuel prices

    • On rates, usual stuff about inflation remained too high, and therefore the current "restrictive" rate is appropriate. They will be data dependent (standard procedure!), vigilant/zero tolerance of prolonged high inflation...but can't rule anything in or out.

    • Read as: Hawkish overall tone, clearly not in any hurry to cut rates any time soon.

Later this week

Wednesday

  • 00:30 USA Building Permits October (1.44 million forecast vs 1.43 million in September) & Housing Starts October (1.34 million forecast vs 1.35 million in September)

  • 02:00 CHN 1-year Loan Prime Rate (forecast steady at 3.1%) & 5-year Loan Prime Rate (forecast steady at 3.6%)

  • 18:00 UK Core Consumer Price Index October (CPI) (+3.1% p.a. forecast vs 3.2% p.a. in September)

Thursday

  • 19:00 AUS RBA Governor Michelle Bullock speaks

Friday

  • 09:00 AUS Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) October (was 47.3 in September) & Flash Services PMI October (was 51.0 in September)

  • 19:15 EUR Various countries Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs October (Germany: Manufacturing forecast 43.1 vs 43.0 in September & Services 51.8 forecast vs 51.6 in September; Eurozone: Manufacturing forecast no change at 46.0 & Services forecast no change at 51.6)

Saturday

  • 01:45 US Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) October (was 47.3 in September) & Flash Services PMI October (was 51.0 in September)


Latest News


Interesting Movers

Trading higher

  • +10.5% Resolute Mining (RSG) - Bounce after heavy losses following yesterday's Update in Relation to Negotiations with Malian Government

  • +10.3% Spartan Resources (SPR) - Metallurgical testwork update at Never Never, but also solid rally in ASX gold sector today on bounce in the gold price (from long term uptrend ribbon - see the ChartWatch section in this Evening Wrap)

  • +10.1% Technology One (TNE) - Annual Report to shareholders and TNE FY24 Results Presentation. But let's face it: Rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (making it one of the most Featured stocks in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists) 🔎📈

  • +8.6% Peninsula Energy (PEN) - No news, but ASX uranium stocks getting a boost from post-US election + Friday Russia restrictions on enriched uranium to USA

  • +7.8% Myer (MYR) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a regular in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists) 🔎📈

  • +7.1% Core Lithium (CXO) - No news, but likely getting a bid from news of SYA-PLL tie up…Who will CXO swap scrip with!" 🤔

  • +7.1% SRG Global (SRG) - $700m of Contracts Secured with Key Repeat Clients. But let's face it: Rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (making it one of the most Featured stocks in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists) 🔎📈

  • +6.8% Sonic Healthcare (SHL) - Sonic 2024 AGM - CEO Presentation

  • +6.2% Block (SQ2) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a regular in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists) 🔎📈

  • +6.1% De Grey Mining (DEG) - 2024 Annual General Meeting Presentation, likely also ditto ASX gold stocks, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend ribbon, short term trend reverting back to up 🔎📈

  • +5.7% ALS (ALQ) - Half Yearly Report and Accounts and ALS H1 FY25 Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (watch out for it in tomorrow's ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends list) 🔎📈

  • +5.5% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - No news, ditto ASX gold

  • +5.2% Firefly Metals (FFM) - 2024 Annual General Meeting Presentation, but also ditto ASX gold

  • +5.0% Pantoro (PNR) - Change in substantial holding (increase from major shareholder), but also ditto ASX gold

  • +4.9% Catapult Group International (CAT) - No news today, continued positive response to yesterday's 1H FY25 Results CEO & MD, CFO Addresses (But again let's face it: Rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends making it one of the most Featured stocks in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists) 🔎📈

Trading lower

  • -9.5% Elders (ELD) - Elders Successfully Completes Institutional Entitlement and Acquisition of Delta Agri & Equity Raise Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends lists) 🔎📉

  • -5.3% Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) - No news, pullback after recent strong rally

  • -5.2% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) - Change in substantial holding (reduction), but generally tough day more generally for ASX lithium stocks despite strong gain in lithium carbonate futures in China, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend (perfectly respected the long term downtrend ribbon!) 🔎📉

  • -5.1% Weebit Nano (WBT) - No news, pullback after recent strong rally

  • -4.6% Cettire (CTT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends lists) 🔎📉

  • -4.1% Liontown Resources (LTR) - No news, ditto generally tough day for ASX lithium stocks

  • -3.8% Pexa Group (PXA) - Response to recent media speculation, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉


Broker Notes

  • Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF)

    • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.10 from $1.33

  • Brickworks (BKW)

    • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $27.40

  • Close The Loop (CLG)

    • Downgraded to hold from buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.60

  • Computershare (CPU)

    • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $33.37 from $28.57

  • Eureka Group (EGH)

    • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $0.80 from $0.75

  • Elders (ELD)

    • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.45

    • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.75

    • Downgraded to hold from outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $9.00 from $9.45

    • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $9.00

    • Retained at marketweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $8.38 from $8.07

  • Fleetpartners Group (FPR)

    • Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.40 from $3.80

    • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.90 from $4.10

    • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $3.85 from $3.55

    • Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.65 from $3.46

    • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.90

    • Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.60 from $3.50

  • GWA Group (GWA)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.05

  • Healius (HLS)

    • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $1.39 from $1.53

  • Iluka Resources (ILU)

    • Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $6.30

  • James Hardie Industries (JHX)

    • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $56.00

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $65.10

  • Lovisa (LOV)

    • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $29.00 from $33.00

  • Monadelphous Group (MND)

    • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $16.20

  • Newmont Corporation (NEM)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $82.00 from $80.00

    • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $77.50 from $90.00

  • New Hope Corporation (NHC)

    • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.60

    • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.00

  • Pointsbet (PBH)

    • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.95 from $0.80

  • Paladin Energy (PDN)

    • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $11.50

  • Reece (REH)

    • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $24.10

  • Resolute Mining (RSG)

    • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.85 from $1.75

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.57 from $0.95

  • Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.50

  • SG Fleet Group (SGH)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $50.90

  • Sonic Healthcare (SHL)

    • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $27.00

  • Veem (VEE)

    • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.70 from $2.25

  • Webjet (WJL)

    • Initiated at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.30


Scans

Top Gainers

Code Company Last % Chg
PTR Petratherm Ltd $0.12 +140.00%
1AE Aurora Energy Met... $0.072 +67.44%
OLY Olympio Metals Ltd $0.055 +61.77%
RHT Resonance Health Ltd $0.059 +55.26%
DAF Discovery Alaska Ltd $0.018 +38.46%
View all top gainers

Top Fallers

Code Company Last % Chg
SBW Shekel Brainweigh... $0.02 -52.38%
AON Apollo Minerals Ltd $0.016 -20.00%
RB6 RUBIX Resources Ltd $0.09 -18.18%
SCP Scalare Partners ... $0.205 -18.00%
ABE Australian Bond E... $0.03 -16.67%
View all top fallers

52 Week Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
PTR Petratherm Ltd $0.12 +140.00%
ESR Estrella Resource... $0.018 +12.50%
C29 C29 Metals Ltd $0.105 +11.70%
NVQ Noviqtech Ltd $0.097 +10.23%
TNE Technology One Ltd $29.45 +10.05%
View all 52 week highs

52 Week Lows

Code Company Last % Chg
SBW Shekel Brainweigh... $0.02 -52.38%
SCN Scorpion Minerals... $0.011 -15.39%
BTE Botala Energy Ltd $0.06 -10.45%
BGT Bio-Gene Technolo... $0.036 -10.00%
SRL Sunrise Energy Me... $0.255 -8.93%
View all 52 week lows

Near Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
PCI Perpetual Credit ... $1.16 +0.43%
WVOL Ishares MSCI Worl... $41.46 +0.10%
GCI Gryphon Capital I... $2.04 -0.49%
VVLU Vanguard Global V... $74.06 -0.07%
IHD Ishares S&P/ASX D... $14.55 +0.21%
View all near highs

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

Code Company Last % Chg
WLE Wam Leaders Ltd $1.275 +1.19%
IRE Iress Ltd $9.36 -1.27%
RSG Resolute Mining Ltd $0.42 +10.53%
SMP Smartpay Holdings... $0.57 -1.72%
DUG DUG Technology Ltd $1.525 -8.13%
View all RSI oversold

Written By

Carl Capolingua

Content Editor

Carl has over 30-years investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.

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