Evening Wrap: ASX 200 starts dangerous week on strong note as tech, health, and banks rise, uranium stocks sag on uranium price drop

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 45.8 points higher, up 0.56%.

This is going to be one of the most dangerous weeks for stocks in 2024.

Three central bank meetings (including one here and one in the USA), as well as the small matter of the US presidential election are on tap for investors.

Granted, those central bank interest rate moves are largely anticipated, but post-meeting press conference rhetoric could still create substantial volatility in markets. As for Trump vs Harris, that one could be a powder keg...

So, in this light, today's 45.8 point gain on the benchmark S&P/ASX200 Index is both welcome and impressive.

On the other hand... if you're a person who loves a punt – this week is shaping up as potentially your best week of the year! 🏆

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on Brent Crude Oil and Uranium in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 45.8 points higher at 8,164.6, 0.56% from its session low and just 0.19% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by an unimpressive 157 to 120.

The Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.7%) was the best performing sector today, likely tracking their NASDAQ counterparts on Friday, but also as a small dip in market yields helped high-PE stocks more generally.

Other high-PE yield-sensitives and bond-market proxies also prospered today, with Utilities (XUJ) (+1.7%), Communication Services (XTJ) (+1.7%), Health Care (XHJ) (+1.2%), and Financials (XFJ) (+0.84%) sectors also performing well.

The best stocks from the best ASX sectors

Doing it tough today were growth-sensitives like Energy (XEJ) (-0.71%), and Resources (XJR) (-0.53%). Not big losses in either, but for Energy in particular, it’s yet another decline for the worst performing ASX sector over the last 12 months.

Is there value in the Energy sector? Well, if you prefer fundamentals, this is the article for you. On the other hand, if charts are your preference, then check the regular ChartWatch section below.

On the latter point, I’ve decided to tackle two of the key commodities of focus within the Energy sector – crude oil and uranium. Uranium stocks were particularly disappointing today as the uranium price appeared to take a steeper angle of downside attack on Friday.

In uranium stocks, only Silex dodged the bullet today...

ChartWatch

Brent Crude Oil Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) ICE

Stuck in the middle with crude 🎶 (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered brent crude was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 9 October.

In that update, we were following up a promising rally from 69.56, but more broadly from 67.64. The timing of the update was excellent, because it was just-post the long black candle on 8 October, allowing me to effectively call the end of that rally. “At best sideways” is what I said.

To be fair, since that update, sideways has been the best-case scenario with the brent price jagging back to test 69.56 again (70.28 last trough). Short and long term trends are back to the downside, the price action is again falling peaks and falling troughs, and candles are mixed – but I suggest a tad more skewed towards supply-side control.

More than anything, brent is stuck within a broader trading range between 65.31 and 87.29. It’s going nowhere, fast, and in a saw-tooth kill the longs and kill the shorts fashion.

There’s nothing to see here for a trend follower.

There’s also little indication of an immediate end to the doldrums presently being felt in the ASX Energy sector – at least not from a definitive move higher in crude oil prices.

A close above the long term trend ribbon would be interesting for the longs…but even then needing to contend with 79.37-80.81. Similarly, a close below demand at 69.56-70.28 would be interesting for the shorts…but even then needing to contend with 65.31-68.20.

Uranium Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Could be a slippery slope from here... (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered uranium was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 29 October.

In that update, I reiterated a call I made back in early August that uranium’s long term trend had transitioned from neutral to down.

My Rule: When the price closes below the long term trend ribbon after a long uptrend, and then the long term trend ribbon begins to act as an area of dynamic supply – the long term trend has transitioned to down.

The price action since 29 October has done nothing to change my mind on the demand-supply dynamics here – nor has it indicated any party but the supply-side is in control of the price.

On Friday, the 79.25 point of demand fell, and now only 78.05 stands in the way between the current price and a deeper retracement to 72.30.

Supply lies at 79.25-85.75, but really now, within a wide band up to 88.40. The short term trend ribbon (now down) should also act as a near-term zone of excess supply (81.40-81.70), and then the long term trend ribbon will likely continue to do its job around 83.50-84.30.

Economy

Today

• AUS ANZ Job Advertisements October: +0.3% vs +2.3% in September (revised higher from +1.6%)

Later this week

Tuesday

• All Day AUS Cup Day Holiday (VIC)

• 14:30 AUS RBA Cash Rate announcement, Monetary Policy Statement, and RBA Statement (forecast no change at 4.35%)

• 15:30 AUS RBA Governor Michelle Bullock press conference

Wednesday

• 02:00 USA ISM Services PMI October (53.4 forecast vs 54.9 in September)

• All Day US Presidential & Congressional Election

Thursday

• 12:00 CNY Trade Balance October (RMB 560 billion forecast vs RMB 583 billion September)

• UK Bank of England (BOE) Official Bank Rate announcement and Monetary Policy Summary

Friday

• 06:00 USA FOMC Meeting and Federal Fund Rate announcement (-0.25% forecast to 4.50-4.75%)

• 06:30 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell press conference

Saturday

• 02:00 USA University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (70.6 forecast vs 70.5 previous)

• 12:30 CHN Consumer Price Index (CPI) October y/y (+0.3% p.a. vs +0.4% p.a. in September)

• 12:30 CHN Producer Price Index (PPI) October y/y (-2.5% p.a. vs -2.8% p.a. in September)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +20.0% Meteoric Resources (MEI) - No news since 31 Oct Settlement of $3.6m Placement, gain is small compared to losses since January

• +7.0% Strike Energy (STX) - Corporate Update

• +5.3% Latin Resources (LRS) - Change in substantial holding, private equity increase despite current Pilbara Minerals (PLS) takeover, PLS also up today (scrip offer so arbitrage in play)

• +3.5% Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) - CMS payment improvement decision for radiopharma diagnostics, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists regular) 🔎📈

• +3.5% Austal (ASB) - Results of Meeting and CEO Presentation 2024 AGM, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists regular) 🔎📈

• +3.2% Westgold Resources (WGX) - Polar Star Lode Emerges at Bluebird-South Junction, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists regular) 🔎📈

• +3.1% Silex Systems (SLX) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists) 🔎📈

• +3.1% Sigma Healthcare (SIG) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists regular) 🔎📈

• +3.0% Car Group (CAR) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists regular) 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -10.7% Ioneer (INR) - No news since 1 Nov

• -9.6% Mineral Resources (MIN) - Update on corporate governance, leadership succession (continued controversy over dealings with CEO Chris Ellison and other senior executives and company), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (a ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends lists regular) 🔎📈

• -7.6% Boss Energy (BOE) - No news, generally weaker ASX uranium sector today on falling uranium price (see ChartWatch section above for more details), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (going to find itself back in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list tomorrow!) 🔎📈

• -7.5% Lotus Resources (LOT) - Ceasing to be a substantial holder, and ditto weaker ASX uranium sector

• -7.5% Wildcat Resources (WC8) - No news, price action and trends realigning with long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -7.2% Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT) - Annual General Meeting - Presentation and Annual General Meeting - Chairman's Address

• -6.7% The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (a ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends lists regular) 🔎📈

• -5.9% Sayona Mining (SYA) - No news, price action and trends realigning with long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -4.5% Core Lithium (CXO) - No news, price action and trends realigning with long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -4.0% Bannerman Energy (BMN) - No news, ditto weaker ASX uranium sector

• -4.0% Deep Yellow (DYL) - No news, ditto weaker ASX uranium sector

• -3.3% Peninsula Energy (PEN) - No news, ditto weaker ASX uranium sector

• -3.2% Paladin Energy (PDN) - No news, ditto weaker ASX uranium sector

Broker Notes

• AGL Energy (AGL)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $12.88

• Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $67.00 from $56.00

• Amcor (AMC)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $17.00

  • Downgraded at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.30 from $16.50

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $15.00

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $15.75 from $15.95

  • Retained at lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $14.10

• Austin Engineering (ANG)

  • Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $0.70

• ARB Corporation (ARB)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $50.00

• Austal (ASB)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.14

• Australian Vanadium (AVL)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.08

• American West Metals (AW1)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.32

• Aurizon (AZJ)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.60

• Breville Group (BRG)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $36.51

• Capricorn Metals (CMM)

  • Upgraded to neutral from underweight at Bank of America; Price Target: $7.00 from $6.10

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.50

• Comet Ridge (COI)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.26 from $0.27

• CSL (CSL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $345.00

• Corporate Travel Management (CTD)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $15.90

• DUG Technology (DUG)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.50

• Dexus (DXS)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.25

• Firefly Metals (FFM)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.90

• Imexhs (IME)

  • Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.15

• Imricor Medical Systems (IMR)

  • Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.94

• IPH (IPH)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.31

• JB HI-FI (JBH)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $75.00 from $69.00

• James Hardie Industries (JHX)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $57.25

• Light & Wonder (LNW)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $180.00

• Liontown Resources (LTR)

  • Retained at lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.75

• Mach7 Technologies (M7T)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.36

• Microba Life Sciences (MAP)

  • Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.33

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Downgraded to sell from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $35.00 from $50.00

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $41.00 from $45.00

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $38.00

• Macquarie Group (MQG)

  • Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $230.00 from $201.00

  • Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $215.00 from $242.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $248.00 from $250.00

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $245.00 from $230.00

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $225.00 from $200.00

• Micro-X (MX1)

  • Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.19 from $0.21

• Newmont Corporation (NEM)

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: US$54 from US$67

• Nickel Industries (NIC)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.43 from $1.47

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.10 from $1.00

• Noumi (NOU)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.30 from $0.20

• Northern Star Resources (NST)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $15.60 from $14.35

• Vaneck Gold Bullion ETF (NUZ)

  • Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.42

• Origin Energy (ORG)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $11.00

• Pointsbet (PBH)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.95 from $0.85

• Peninsula Energy (PEN)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.26

• Proteomics International Laboratories (PIQ)

  • Retained at reduce at Morgans; Price Target: $0.50

• Steadfast Group (SDF)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.50

• Syrah Resources (SYR)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.35 from $0.30

• TPG Telecom (TPG)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.40

• Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $24.75

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $33.00

• Westgold Resources (WGX)

  • Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.85

Scans