Evening Wrap: ASX 200 up on golden rebound, Premier-Myer deal stokes retail, energy stocks slump on plunging crude, natural gas prices

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 27.7 points higher, up 0.34%.

The S&P/ASX 200 rose modestly today as gold stocks recouped most of their falls from Monday. The gold price continues to probe new record highs.

Retail stocks got a boost from the confirmation Myer Holdings (MYR) would acquire several of Premier Investments (PMV) ANZ apparel brands. The deal sees PMV move to a controlling stake in MYR.

Energy stocks were the only major disappointment today, sagging under the weight of sharp falls in key energy commodities Monday evening local time.

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on Gold and Uranium in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 27.7 points higher at 8,249.2, roughly mid-range 0.34% from its session low and 0.28% from its high. Interestingly, despite the gain in the benchmark, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by 134 to 143.

Many ardent gold investors would be left wondering: What was that all about? Yesterday’s dip in most ASX-listed gold stocks was at odds with continued strength in the gold price, and for some stocks, was quite severe.

Most bounced back today (as if nothing had happened), but this should not surprise investors who understand the nature of investing in gold stocks! Nothing goes up in a straight line – there’s that – but also gold stocks don’t always follow the gold price. I have more on this topic in today’s ChartWatch.

After the Gold (XGD) (+1.9%) sub-index, the next best performing sectors were generally consistent with strength shown over the last few days – Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+0.76%), Information Technology (XIJ) (+0.74%), and Financials (XFJ) (+0.57%).

Much of it was stock-specific. In Discretionary, the standout was Premier Investments (ASX: PMV) (+9.9%), which popped after it announced Myer Holdings (ASX: MYR) (-1.5%) would acquire PMV’s apparel brands in Australia and New Zealand (Just Jeans, Jay Jays, Portmans, Dotti and Jacqui E). Premier will invest $82 million in new shares in Myer, taking its stake in the retailer to 51.5%.

In Tech, Nuix (ASX: NXL) (+5.2%) popped again on no obvious news – but who needs news when you have a chart that good? Back in my ChartWatch Daily Scans Feature Uptrend list tomorrow morning! Plenty of XIJ index points were likely also added by Wisetech Global (ASX: WTC) (+2.7%), which continues to gyrate after news founder and former CEO would transition into a long term advisory role with the business.

In Financials, the clear standout was Zip Co. (ASX: ZIP) (+11.8%), which soared on a very well received September quarter results and trading update (another ChartWatch Daily Scans superstar!). The company’s US segment continued to record strong growth as total transaction value rose 43% year on year – beating Citi’s forecast by 5%. Interestingly, as much as Citi lauded the result, it still chose to downgrade its rating on ZIP to NEUTRAL from BUY.

Today's best performing stocks from the best performing ASX sectors

No one sector really got belted today, but Energy (XEJ) (-0.67%) was an notable underperformer, sagging again on lower crude oil and natural gas prices overnight and into Asian trade today. Both Brent and West Texas crude were down around 6%, and natural gas over 8% on expectations that the conflict in the Middle East would likely not negatively impact energy supply from the region.

Today's worst performing stocks from the worst performing ASX sectors

ChartWatch

Gold Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Nothing interesting to see here (apart from the excellent short and long term trends)

The last time we covered gold was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 24 October.

In that update, I promised that “Nothing goes up in a straight line”, and to back the demand-side and simply wait for the reassertion of their control via “white-bodied candles and or downward pointing shadows”.

There’s a couple of important points to make looking at the above chart.

Point 1: Ditto. Same as last time. Nothing has changed. This continues to be a picture of unchallenged excess demand. The short term trend remains intact until a close below the short term trend ribbon, presently 2675. Also, you know the drill, large supply side candles indicate the supply-side is making a stand. Keep your eyes peeled.

Point 2: If you’ve copped a beating on some of your gold stocks this week – it’s because investing in gold stocks is almost always far more volatile than simply investing in gold itself. Yes, I have featured dozens of fantastic gold stocks – big and small – in my ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists for the last few months…and yes many of them are up bags (and bags) from when they were first run. But I’ve also featured the Global X Physical Gold ETF (ASX: GOLD) very deliberately to highlight that one can do away with stock related foibles and just…Be…Long…Gold…!

(Point 3: This trend WILL END. It might even END SPECTACULARLY. Most great trends do. But to worry about a future even that cannot be predicted is just plain silly. Trend followers back what they can see. They back it to completion, not fearing giving back some profits when the trend inevitably changes. This is the nature of trend following – embrace it if you can overcome the fear of the unknown!)

Uranium Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

A new long term downtrend has begun

The last time we covered uranium was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 22 October.

In that update, we noted that it was “stuck in the middle between long term apathy at best, and a potentially stalling modest short term uptrend”. I suggested long term trend ribbon would “continue to act as a strong zone of excess supply”.

That it has.

I also noted that a close below 78.90 would indicate the supply-side has the upper hand. That marker has been moved 0.35 higher due to contract roll / back adjustment of the chart. It’s very routine – the new number(s) in the chart above are all you need to concentrate on now.

Monday’s close was 80.50 and the short term trend has swung back to the downside, closing beneath the short term trend ribbon which has neutralised.

That trend ribbon is now supply, and the 83.85-85.75 (but really up to 88.40) appears now to be an impenetrable barrier of excess supply.

For all intents and purposes, the uranium price has confirmed for me it is now in a long term downtrend.

If 79.25 goes, then there is a credible point of demand at 78.05, and beneath that, 72.30.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Wednesday

• 01:00 USA Consumer Confidence October (99.2 forecast vs 98.7 previous)

• 01:00 USA JOLTS Job Openings September (7.92 million forecast vs 8.04 million)

• 11:30 AUS Consumer Price Index (CPI)

  • Monthly, September: +2.3% p.a. forecast vs +2.7% p.a. in August

  • September Quarter Trimmed Mean: +0.7% q/q and +3.5% p.a. vs +0.8% q/q and +3.9% p.a. in June

• 23:30 USA Advance GDP September Quarter (+3.0% p.a. vs +3.0% p.a. in June

Thursday

• 11:30 AUS Retail Sales September (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.7% August)

• 12:30 CHN Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) October

  • Manufacturing: 50.5 forecast vs 49.8 in September

  • Non Manufacturing: 50.5 forecast vs 50.0 in September

• 13:00 (Tentative, from) JPN Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy Rate & Monetary Policy Statement (no change forecast at <0.25%)

• 23:30 USA Core PCE Price Index m/m September (+0.3% m/m and +2.8% p.a. forecast vs +0.1% m/m and +2.8% p.a. in August)

Friday

• 12:45 CHN Caixin Manufacturing PMI October (49.7 forecast vs 49.3 in September)

• 00:30 USA Non Farm Payrolls September

  • Employment change: 111,000 forecast vs 254,000 in August

  • Average hourly earnings: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.4% m/m in August

  • Unemployment rate: 4.1% forecast, no change vs August

Saturday

• 01:00 USA ISM Manufacturing PMI September (47.5 forecast vs 47.2 in August)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +11.8% Zip Co. (ZIP) - 1Q25 Quarterly Cash Flow Report and 1Q FY25 Results Update, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists - a Feature Chart 14 times since 27 June (that day's closing price $1.495) 🔎📈

• +10.5% Argosy Minerals (AGY) - Quarterly Activities Report and Quarterly Cashflow Report

• +9.9% Premier Investments (PMV) - Combination of Premier's Apparel Brands with Myer

• +8.7% Pantoro (PNR) - No news, general rebound in ASX gold sector today after a sharp sell-off yesterday, gold price continues to probe new highs, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +8.1% Firefly Metals (FFM) - Green Bay Resource Increases 42% to 1.2Mt at 2% Copper Eq, ditto generally stronger ASX gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +7.2% Mineral Resources (MIN) - Response to ASX Aware Letter

• +6.5% Develop Global (DVP) - Continued positive response to 28 Oct Quarterly Activities Report and Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +5.7% Galan Lithium (GLN) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrends, solid rally off basing pattern on large and increasing volume 🤔

• +5.2% Nuix (NXL) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists - a Feature Chart 14 times since 3 July (that day's closing price $3.27) 🔎📈

• +4.2% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) - No news, ditto generally stronger ASX gold sector today

• +4.1% Opthea (OPT) - Continued positive response to 28 Oct Opthea Corporate Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +3.7% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - Continued positive response to 28 Oct Vulcan achieves world first S&P Global Dark Green rating, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +3.5% Northern Star Resources (NST) - No news, ditto generally stronger ASX gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -17.3% Cettire (CTT) - Profitable Q1 growth amid optimisation of operating settings, closed back below the long term downtrend ribbon

• -6.7% WA1 Resources (WA1) - Change in substantial holding (decrease)

• -6.6% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) - Q3 FY2024 Quarterly Activities Report, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📈

• -5.7% Droneshield (DRO) - No news since 25 Oct October 2024 Investor Presentation and Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report, upgraded to BUY from HOLD at Bell Potter clearly didn't help (price target was cut to $1.20 from $1.35), also retained at BUY at Shaw and Partners (price target: $1.20), fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to down, a recent regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📈

• -5.4% Chalice Mining (CHN) - September 2024 Quarterly Activities & Cashflow Report

• -4.9% Paladin Energy (PDN) - Continued negative response to 28 Oct Quarterly Activities Report and Quarterly Cashflow Report, several broker updates today - most cutting their price targets, plus Argonaut Securities downgraded rating to HOLD from BUY

• -3.4% Sandfire Resources (SFR) - September 2024 Quarterly Report

Broker Notes

• ANZ Group (ANZ)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $32.00

• BHP Group (BHP)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $46.85

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $47.90

• Boab Metals (BML)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.40

• Beach Energy (BPT)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.75

• Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.00

• Bluescope Steel (BSL)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $23.00

• Chrysos Corporation (C79)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $7.20

• Capricorn Metals (CMM)

  • Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $9.40

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.20 from $6.49

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $5.88 from $5.72

  • Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $6.73 from $6.62

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.20

• Cooper Energy (COE)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $0.31

• Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.30 from $3.25

• Coventry Group (CYG)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.75 from $1.85

• Droneshield (DRO)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.20 from $1.35

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.20

• Develop Global (DVP)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.50 from $3.20

• Eagle Mountain Mining (EM2)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.30

• Fineos Corporation (FCL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.11

• Fortescue (FMG)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $21.50 from $22.00

• Goodman Group (GMG)

  • Upgraded to overweight from underweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $40.00 from $32.00

• Helloworld Travel (HLO)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.50

• HMC Capital (HMC)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.10

• IGO (IGO)

  • Retained at sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.00

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.70 from $6.00

  • Downgraded to hold from outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $5.75 from $6.00

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.20 from $6.40

  • Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $8.21 from $8.30

  • Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.60

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.90

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.50

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $6.25 from $6.50

• Johns Lyng Group (JLG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.90

• Karoon Energy (KAR)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $2.50

• Macquarie Group (MQG)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $200.00

• Metcash (MTS)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.45 from $3.83

• National Australia Bank (NAB)

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $35.00

• Newmont Corporation (NEM)

  • Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $80.00 from $90.00

• Northern Star Resources (NST)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $20.18 from $16.19

• Paladin Energy (PDN)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $10.40 from $10.55

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $14.40 from $15.70

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $14.60 from $15.00

  • Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $14.00 from $14.50

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $12.30 from $12.40

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $16.00 from $16.80

• Patriot Battery Metals (PMT)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.80

• Qantas Airways (QAN)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $8.20 from $6.60

• Rio Tinto (RIO)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $127.00

• South32 (S32)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $4.10

• Siteminder (SDR)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.10 from $5.70

• Serko (SKO)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.40

• Santana Minerals (SMI)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.93

• Santos (STO)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $7.90 from $7.50

• Suncorp Group (SUN)

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $19.65

• Southern Cross Gold (SXG)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.69

• Temple & Webster Group (TPW)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $12.20

  • Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $14.01 from $14.30

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $13.55 from $12.90

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $13.15

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $11.50

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $11.80 from $11.20

• Vault Minerals (VAU)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.50

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.53 from $0.52

• Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $33.00

• Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $33.00

• Zip Co. (ZIP)

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.90

Scans