Market Wraps

Evening Wrap: ASX 200 ekes out gain but major mining and energy stocks implode on China stimulus doubts, tanking commodity prices

Wed 09 Oct 24, 5:37pm (AEDT)

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The S&P/ASX 200 closed 10.5 points higher, up 0.13%.

On the surface, a quiet day's trade with a modest 10 points or so gain in the benchmark S&P/ASX 200. However, scratch beneath the surface, and there were some substantial falls in certain sectors...as well as similarly substantial gains in others.

Resources and energy stocks have clearly ridden their luck as far as that luck will take them - at least for now - as doubts crept into investors' minds about Beijing's resolve to solve the problem of their ailing property market.

Elsewhere, Technology stocks prospered as their US counterparts rose strongly overnight.

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the NASDAQ Composite and Crude Oil in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!


Today in Review

Wed 09 Oct 24, 5:00pm (AEDT)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
ASX 200 8,187.4 +0.13%
All Ords 8,456.8 +0.16%
Small Ords 3,130.8 +0.19%
All Tech 3,545.6 +1.81%
Emerging Companies 2,291.5 -0.14%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6748 +0.03%
US Futures
S&P 500 5,789.0 -0.20%
Dow Jones 42,326.0 -0.12%
Nasdaq 20,235.75 -0.31%
Name Value % Chg
Sector
Information Technology 2,711.5 +1.41%
Communication Services 1,613.8 +1.40%
Consumer Discretionary 3,807.8 +1.04%
Health Care 45,296.6 +1.00%
Consumer Staples 12,457.6 +0.98%
Industrials 7,440.7 +0.85%
Utilities 9,080.1 +0.82%
Financials 8,209.5 +0.55%
Real Estate 4,014.7 -0.52%
Materials 17,305.4 -1.39%
Energy 9,193.8 -2.45%

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Markets

XJO Intraday Chart 09 October 2024
ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 10.5 points higher at 8,187.4, 0.48% from its session high and just 0.17% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by 167 to 110.

The Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.4%) was the best performing sector today, likely in response to . There’s a substantial overlap in tech-oriented businesses in the Communication Services (XTJ) (+1.4%), so perhaps not surprisingly this was the next best performing sector today (and to the same extent).

Also doing well today were the non-resources based sectors (remember Peter and Paul?) as those two struggled again today. So, cash flowed back towards Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+1.0%), Health Care (XHJ) (+1.0%), and Financials (XFJ) (+0.55%) among others.

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

Cettire (CTT)

$2.00

+$0.12

+6.4%

+18.7%

-27.3%

Zip Co. (ZIP)

$2.89

+$0.17

+6.3%

+33.2%

+1011.5%

Temple & Webster Group (TPW)

$13.70

+$0.58

+4.4%

+23.5%

+134.6%

Block (SQ2)

$101.43

+$4.23

+4.4%

+10.8%

+50.4%

Pro Medicus (PME)

$186.63

+$7.2

+4.0%

+17.6%

+125.3%

Audinate Group (AD8)

$9.95

+$0.36

+3.8%

+3.0%

-24.2%

GQG Partners (GQG)

$2.65

+$0.09

+3.5%

+3.5%

+94.9%

Redox (RDX)

$3.51

+$0.11

+3.2%

+14.7%

+56.0%

Magellan Financial Group (MFG)

$10.28

+$0.3

+3.0%

+15.4%

+43.2%

Life360 (360)

$20.56

+$0.56

+2.8%

+20.7%

+147.7%

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation (FPH)

$32.89

+$0.89

+2.8%

-4.9%

+58.9%

Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)

$19.09

+$0.51

+2.7%

+16.2%

+121.2%

OFX Group (OFX)

$2.32

+$0.06

+2.7%

+14.9%

+38.9%

MA Financial Group (MAF)

$5.81

+$0.15

+2.7%

+9.6%

+27.7%

Tuas (TUA)

$5.48

+$0.14

+2.6%

+27.4%

+161.0%

Car Group (CAR)

$38.04

+$0.87

+2.3%

+1.6%

+35.4%

REA Group (REA)

$216.50

+$4.5

+2.1%

+6.9%

+38.9%

Healius (HLS)

$1.730

+$0.035

+2.1%

+3.9%

-13.9%

Megaport (MP1)

$7.47

+$0.15

+2.0%

-0.7%

-33.2%

Resmed Inc (RMD)

$35.15

+$0.7

+2.0%

-5.0%

+53.7%

Today’s best stocks from the best sectors

Peter 1 and Peter 2 – aka Energy (XEJ) (-2.5%) and Resources (XJR) (-1.7%) were down again today on lower commodity prices pretty much across the board Tuesday. Those commodities, and sentiment across resources and energy in general, continue to be damped by a combination of profit taking in what was a white-hot are of the market over the last two weeks, and nagging disappointment (doubt?) over the Chinese government’s commitment to deliver the promised proverbial “bazooka” range of fiscal stimulus measures.

Also doing it tough today was the Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (-0.55%). We often say here it’s the most interest rate sensitive sector. It did so well in August and September as market yields tumbled on rate cut expectations, but it has struggled since Friday’s release of strong US labour data for September – that data spiked yields.

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

Mineral Resources (MIN)

$47.94

-$3.29

-6.4%

+58.3%

-21.3%

Liontown Resources (LTR)

$0.790

-$0.045

-5.4%

+29.5%

-73.3%

WA1 Resources (WA1)

$13.75

-$0.78

-5.4%

-10.9%

+186.5%

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

$2.85

-$0.15

-5.0%

+20.8%

-27.1%

Karoon Energy (KAR)

$1.530

-$0.075

-4.7%

+3.7%

-38.4%

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

$1.265

-$0.055

-4.2%

+12.9%

-8.0%

Beach Energy (BPT)

$1.230

-$0.045

-3.5%

+11.8%

-18.0%

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

$7.41

-$0.26

-3.4%

+5.3%

+15.4%

Chalice Mining (CHN)

$1.460

-$0.05

-3.3%

+46.7%

-34.5%

Nickel Industries (NIC)

$0.900

-$0.03

-3.2%

+18.4%

+26.8%

Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

$0.605

-$0.02

-3.2%

+5.2%

+505.0%

Ampol (ALD)

$30.06

-$0.93

-3.0%

+4.1%

-3.7%

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

$25.56

-$0.78

-3.0%

+6.5%

-25.2%

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

$3.78

-$0.11

-2.8%

+9.9%

-20.3%

Champion Iron (CIA)

$6.52

-$0.18

-2.7%

+23.0%

+9.9%

Iluka Resources (ILU)

$6.41

-$0.17

-2.6%

+16.1%

-13.1%

Yancoal Australia (YAL)

$6.08

-$0.16

-2.6%

+12.8%

+23.1%

Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL)

$4.35

-$0.11

-2.5%

+22.5%

+67.3%

IGO (IGO)

$5.36

-$0.13

-2.4%

+9.6%

-51.5%

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

$7.01

-$0.17

-2.4%

+24.3%

+8.3%

Today’s worst stocks from the worst sectors

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

NASDAQ Composite Index chart 8 October 2024
ST trend ribbon holds again

The last time we covered the Comp was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 3 October.

In that update, we noted the impeccable long term trend here, but we were waiting for demand to kick in again at the short term uptrend ribbon – which it dutifully did. Never forget that the dynamic demand I expect to see at my trend ribbons is nothing but pure imagination. It’s fantasy. There’s no reason why the short term trend ribbon (or the long term trend ribbon for that matter) should be such accurate delineators of dynamic support and resistance – but they appear to be – and that’s good enough for me!

Hey, they are until they aren’t sort of thing.

If we don’t have a reliable tool to help tell an uptrend from a downtrend, then we are random. Random in equals random out – and that’s not where you want to be with your investing. I use my trend ribbons in an unequivocally consistent way. Consistent in equals consistent out – even if sometimes the result doesn’t go your way – it’s still better than the random alternative.

Anyways, enough waffle (but important waffle!), back to the Comp technicals. It’s all steady as she goes here for what I feel is the US stock market’s best risk-on gauge. Tuesday’s candle is a solid demand-side showing (white body plus close very near the session’s high), and it’s even more impressive given Monday’s supply-side exhibition.

The trough / point of demand created by the Mon-Tues price action begins a zone of demand that will likely be extremely instructive with respect to defining the continuation of the short term uptrend. That trough low is 17900 (not labelled to reduce clutter in the chart), and there’s another from 20 Sep at 17835, and then one at 17767.

Add to these, the dynamic demand at the short term uptrend ribbon, and it’s then logical to suggest that a close below 17767 would end the prevailing short term uptrend.

Supply is at 18328, but really it’s a zone between there and up to the all time high at 18671. It might take a few goes to break down the supply in that area, but given prevailing trends, there’s no reason to believe this won’t eventually occur.

Brent Crude Oil Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) ICE

Brent Crude Oil Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) ICE chart 8 October 2024
Dynamic and volatile

The last time we covered crude oil was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 4 October.

In that update, we were monitoring a very promising technical reversal, including a return to rising peaks and rising troughs, predominantly demand-side candles, and the price eliminating several points of supply including both trend ribbons.

I noted that “79.84-80.84 is the next clear zone of supply”, and that obviously, the events driving the demand and supply here are “both dynamic and volatile” to say the least. Both observations appear correct, but this doesn’t change the fact the Brent price action has not played out the way I had expected.

Instead of a continued push towards the top of the range at 85.50-87.64, Tuesday’s long black candle has likely snuffed out that option – at least for a while. The new point of demand created at 81.16 will likely compliment 79.84-80.84 as an enduring zone of supply.

The long term trend ribbon is doing its best to hold prices up, but failing this, the next point of demand down is 75.12 where the short term uptrend ribbon is also lurking. My tip, probably sideways at best here. I need to see some more price action one way or the other to become more confident about the likely next direction.

As always, white bodied candles and or downward pointing shadows + higher peaks and higher troughs = demand-side control vs black bodied candles and or upward pointing shadows + falling peaks and falling troughs = supply-side control.


Economy

Today

  • There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Thursday

  • 05:00 USA Federal Reserve September FOMC Meeting minutes

  • 23:30 USA Core CPI September (+0.2% m/m for 3.1% p.a. forecast vs +0.3% m/m for 3.2% p.a. in August)

Friday

  • 23:30 USA Core PPI September (+0.2% m/m for 2.5% p.a. forecast vs +0.3% m/m for 2.5% p.a. in August)

Saturday

  • 01:00 USA Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment September (70.5 forecast vs 70.1 August)


Latest News


Interesting Movers

Trading higher

  • +6.4% Cettire (CTT) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, encroaching on the long term downtrend ribbon 🔎📈

  • +6.3% Zip Co. (ZIP) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (which is why it's been a stalwart of the ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list) 🔎📈

  • +4.4% Strike Energy (STX) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, encroaching on the long term downtrend ribbon 🔎📈

  • +4.4% Temple & Webster Group (TPW) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (also a ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list regular) 🔎📈

  • +4.4% Block (SQ2) - No news, likely simply responding to stronger US stocks overnight

  • +4.0% Pro Medicus (PME) - No news, retained at outperform at CLSA and price target increased to $200.00 from $160.00, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (also a ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list regular) 🔎📈

  • +3.8% Lotus Resources (LOT) - No news, retained at buy at Shaw and Partners (price target $0.72 implies 160% upside)

  • +3.5% GQG Partners (GQG) - No news, retained at outperform at Macquarie

  • +3.2% Redox (RDX) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (also a ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list regular) 🔎📈

  • +3.0% Magellan Financial Group (MFG) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (also a ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list regular) 🔎📈

  • +2.8% Life360 (360) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (also a ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list regular) 🔎📈

Trading lower

  • -6.4% Mineral Resources (MIN) - No news, weaker iron ore price, but more generally, just a rotation back out of resources and energy stocks…hot money in…hot money out…fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend (perfectly capped by long term downtrend ribbon) 🔎📉

  • -5.4% Liontown Resources (LTR) - Ditto anti-resources and energy sectors rotation, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

  • -5.4% WA1 Resources (WA1) - Ditto resources, but I note the short term trend is firmly set to the downside here…🔎📉

  • -5.3% Sigma Healthcare (SIG) - Change in substantial holding from HMC (decrease)

  • -5.1% Mesoblast (MSB) - No news.

  • -5.0% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) - September 2024 Quarterly Activities Report Advisory, you absolutely must look at the long term downtrend ribbon here…just perfection! 🔎📉

  • -4.7% Karoon Energy (KAR) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, encroaching on the long term downtrend ribbon 🔎📈

  • -4.2% Bellevue Gold (BGL) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, encroaching on the long term downtrend ribbon 🔎📈


Broker Notes

  • Atlantic Lithium (A11)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.30

  • Abacus Group (ABG)

    • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.15

  • ANZ Group (ANZ)

    • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $25.00

  • Arena Reit. (ARF)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.15

  • ASX (ASX)

    • Retained at lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $60.70 from $59.50

  • Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

    • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $9.75

  • Beacon Lighting Group (BLX)

    • Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.35

  • Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

    • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $5.30

  • Beach Energy (BPT)

    • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.35 from $1.30

  • Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE)

    • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.00 from $6.40

  • Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

    • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $91.50

  • Charter Hall Group (CHC)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.43

  • Centuria Industrial Reit (CIP)

    • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.20

  • Charter Hall Long Wale Reit (CLW)

    • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.34

  • Centuria Capital Group (CNI)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.87

  • Cochlear (COH)

    • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $301.00 from $308.00

  • Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR)

    • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.42

  • Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $12.80 from $12.70

  • CSL (CSL)

    • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $320.00 from $319.00

  • Catalyst Metals (CYL)

    • Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.90

  • Droneshield (DRO)

    • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.30

  • Dexus Industria Reit. (DXI)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.19

  • Dexus (DXS)

    • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.52

  • Endeavour Group (EDV)

    • Retained at hold at Citi; Price Target: $5.18

  • Elders (ELD)

    • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.45 from $9.30

  • Firefly Metals (FFM)

    • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.40 from $1.50

  • Goodman Group (GMG)

    • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $40.00

    • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $36.47

  • Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)

    • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.35

  • GPT Group (GPT)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.98

  • GQG Partners (GQG)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.15 from $3.20

  • Healthco Healthcare and Wellness Reit (HCW)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.32

  • Homeco Daily Needs Reit (HDN)

    • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.19

  • HMC Capital (HMC)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.01

  • IGO (IGO)

    • Downgraded to underweight from neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $4.50 from $5.40

  • Lotus Resources (LOT)

    • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.72

  • Liontown Resources (LTR)

    • Retained at underweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $0.45 from $0.65

  • Mirvac Group (MGR)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.07

  • Mineral Resources (MIN)

    • Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $50.00 from $49.00

  • Macquarie Group (MQG)

    • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $176.00

  • National Australia Bank (NAB)

    • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $26.50

  • NIB (NHW)

    • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.05

  • National Storage Reit (NSR)

    • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.51

  • Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

    • Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $3.05 from $2.85

  • Pro Medicus (PME)

    • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $200.00 from $160.00

    • Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $140.00

  • Qualitas (QAL)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.94

  • REA Group (REA)

    • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $230.00

  • Region Group (RGN)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.38

  • Ramsay Health Care (RHC)

    • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $42.40

  • Rio Tinto (RIO)

    • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $135.50

  • Resmed Inc (RMD)

    • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $39.25 from $39.00

  • South32 (S32)

    • Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $3.80

  • Scentre Group (SCG)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.60

  • Sandfire Resources (SFR)

    • Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $11.10 from $10.50

  • Sonic Healthcare (SHL)

    • Retained at lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $23.50 from $23.75

  • Santana Minerals (SMI)

    • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.93 from $2.76

  • Spark New Zealand (SPK)

    • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: NZ$4.72 from NZ$4.94

  • Seven Group (SVW)

    • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $48.50 from $46.00

  • The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

    • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.70

  • Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

    • Retained at hold at Citi; Price Target: $12.97

  • Vicinity Centres (VCX)

    • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.04

  • Vista Group International (VGL)

    • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.00

  • West African Resources (WAF)

    • Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $3.50

    • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.15

    • Retained at buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $2.80

  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

    • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $24.75

  • Webjet (WJL)

    • Initiated at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.05


Scans

Top Gainers

Code Company Last % Chg
SHP South HARZ Potash... $0.013 +44.44%
ILA Island Pharmaceut... $0.165 +32.00%
EIQ Echoiq Ltd $0.31 +29.17%
RC1 Redcastle Resourc... $0.011 +22.22%
AZ9 Asian Battery Met... $0.036 +20.00%
View all top gainers

Top Fallers

Code Company Last % Chg
SCN Scorpion Minerals... $0.013 -23.53%
ATC Altech Batteries Ltd $0.043 -17.31%
JNO Juno Minerals Ltd $0.026 -16.13%
LEG Legend Mining Ltd $0.011 -15.39%
ORP Orpheus Uranium Ltd $0.039 -13.33%
View all top fallers

52 Week Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
ILA Island Pharmaceut... $0.165 +32.00%
EIQ Echoiq Ltd $0.31 +29.17%
RKT Rocketdna Ltd $0.017 +13.33%
WRK WRKR Ltd $0.07 +12.90%
AII Almonty Industrie... $0.91 +10.30%
View all 52 week highs

52 Week Lows

Code Company Last % Chg
SCN Scorpion Minerals... $0.013 -23.53%
ORP Orpheus Uranium Ltd $0.039 -13.33%
PR2 Piche Resources Ltd $0.10 -13.04%
KAL Kalgoorlie Gold M... $0.022 -12.00%
ATM Aneka Tambang (Pe... $0.905 -11.71%
View all 52 week lows

Near Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
IHD Ishares S&P/ASX D... $14.43 +0.07%
AYLD Global X S&P/ASX ... $10.58 -0.09%
PGC Paragon Care Ltd $0.485 +2.11%
FLT Flight Centre Tra... $21.92 +1.39%
BILL Ishares Core Cash... $100.82 +0.01%
View all near highs

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

Code Company Last % Chg
SMP Smartpay Holdings... $0.89 -0.56%
FAL Falcon Metals Ltd $0.16 -3.03%
NWSLV News Corporation $38.30 +0.08%
IHHY Ishares Global Hi... $92.34 -0.15%
SGR The Star Entertai... $0.26 -3.70%
View all RSI oversold

Written By

Carl Capolingua

Content Editor

Carl has over 30-years investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.

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