Evening Wrap: ASX 200 higher as lithium, uranium stocks soar

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 19.8 points higher, up 0.28%.

Sometimes things which happen in the markets make perfect sense, for example, the surge in uranium stocks following another big move up in the spot uranium price. Other times, they don't make any sense at all, for example the rally in lithium stocks today as lithium minerals prices in tumbled in Asia. 🤔

On that note, let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX200 is making a habit of logging solid up days in November (Source: Market Index)

#Lithium. #Uranium. Got your attention, right?

The former was the hottest segment of the Australian stock market for the last couple of years, the latter is easily the hottest right now. I follow the charts of each group very closely, and given each enjoyed some very tidy gains, I thought I'd show you the charts of their respective minerals.

Uranium prices are soaring on renewed demand amidst a potential supply squeeze

First, uranium. If you want to know why uranium prices are soaring to new 15-year highs, read this article I wrote on the demand-supply dynamics of the uranium market.

ASX uranium stocks today

Lithium companies have been generally heading the opposite direction to uranium companies in 2023. If you're a trend follower like me, you'd have been out of ASX lithium plays and all over ASX uranium plays for many months now.

This is because lithium mineral prices have been plunging - and I don't use that word flippantly. Take a look at the charts below for Spodumene Concentrate 6% and Lithium Carbonate. The first is generally what you get from hard rock deposits of the likes of Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) and Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN), and the second is comes from lithium brines which consistent with Allkem's (ASX: AKE) operations.

Spodumene concentrate prices have been going only one way in 2023

Lithium carbonate prices have been volatile, but the recent trend is clearly down

Hey, it's possible lithium companies are ahead of the curve today. pricing some sort of imminent reversal in lithium minerals prices. Or today's rally could just be a dead cat bounce. My view is, stick with the overall trends which are so clearly up for uranium and down for lithium.

ASX lithium stocks today

Economy

Don't you love it when well-paid central bankers give us tips on how to run our households and finances? Speaking at the ASIC Annual Forum in Melbourne today, RBA governor Michele Bullock noted the higher rates set by her organisation were a potential boon for Aussies as it encouraged savings. Even those with a mortgage could benefit because they could put more in their offset accounts, she indicated.

Those comments came ahead of the release of the RBA minutes for its Cup Day hike which increased the official cash rate from 4.10% to 4.35%. The minutes blamed Aussie businesses for stoking inflation, and therefore for the rate hike, by passing on cost increases to consumers.

The RBA noted that whilst inflation expectations remained "broadly anchored", there remained risks that "sustained" price increases from businesses to consumer would contribute to higher inflation.

Indeed, inflation expectations are the focus going forward, according to the minutes: "A scenario prepared by the staff illustrated that even a modest further increase in inflation expectations would make it significantly more challenging and costly to return inflation back to target within a reasonable time".

RBA cash rate implied yield curve. Source: ASX

Despite the hawkish tone of the minutes, markets have all but written off the chance of a pre-Christmas hike when the bank meets in December. Instead, the February meeting is the most likely "live" meeting as it will have the benefit of the hindsight in next quarterly inflation data due at the end of January.

What to watch out for...

At 3am AEDT ECB President Lagarde Speaks, and at 6am AEDT we'll see the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes from their November meeting.

Latest news

Interesting news and movers

Trading higher

• +11.0% Mesoblast (MSB) - No news since Nov 15 Corporate Presentation

• +10.3% Ioneer (INR) - Response to ASX Query Letter

• +10.0% Bowen Coking Coal (BCB) - No news since Nov 13 Change of Director's interest notices

• +10.0% Argosy Minerals (AGY) - No news since Nov 17 Rincon Lithium Project - Progress Update

• +7.0% Cettire (CTT) - No news since Nov 16 AGM - Chair Address and CEO Presentation

• +6.7% Imugene (IMU) - New news since Nov 14 Investor Webinar featuring COO, Dr Glover & CMO, Dr Woodard

• +6.4% Weebit Nano (WBT) - Investor Presentation

• +5.8% Pexa Group (PXA) - Investor Presentation - Strategy Update

• +5.8% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - Now news since Nov 16 Bridging Engineering Study Results - Presentation

• +5.4% Brainchip Holdings (BRN) - Transition to New CTO

• +5.4% Genesis Minerals (GMD) - Change of Director's Interest Notice - Gerry Kaczmarek

Trading lower

• -4.8% SSR Mining Inc. - No news

• -4.6% Tabcorp Holdings (TAH) - No news

• -4.5% Cooper Energy (COE) - No news since Nov 20 BMG decommissioning update - vessel mobilisation

• -4.1% Abacus Storage King (ASK) - No news since Nov 17 Notice of change of interest of substantial holder for NSR

• -4.0% Link Administration Holdings (LNK) - No news since Nov 17 Ceasing to be a substantial holder

Broker notes

• Newmont (NEM) initiated outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $71.00

• Allkem (AKE) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.00

• Altium (ALU) upgraded from neutral to outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $49.70 from $39.10

• Accent Group (AX1) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.35 from $2.50

• Core Lithium (CXO) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.60

• Healius (HLS) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.95 from $2.90

• Karoon Energy (KAR):

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.50 from $3.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.68 from $2.80

• Liontown Resources (LTR) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.70

• Mineral Resources (MIN) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $83.00

• New Hope Corp. (NHC) retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.20 from $4.30

• Pilbara Minerals (PLS) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.10

• Steadfast Group (SDF) upgraded from neutral to outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.90 from $6.40

• Sayona Mining (SYA) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.17

• Universal Store Holdings (UNI):

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.56

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.00 from $3.70

• Woodside Energy (WDS) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $32.00

• Whitehaven Coal (WHC) retained at sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.50 from $7.00

Scans