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Broker Watch
Which ASX 200 stocks have the biggest downside in July
By
Kerry Sun
Tue 18 Jul 23, 9:30am (AEST)
Source: Shutterstock
Stocks in article
Key Points
- Reece, Fortescue and Costa Group have the biggest downside vs. broker consensus
- The top 10 stocks with the most upside are up an average 36.2% in the past twelve months
The Monthly Broker Consensus scan identifies ASX 200 stocks with the biggest potential downside based on consensus target prices.
The Top 10 ASX 200 Stocks
Ticker | Name | Sector | Close Price | Target price | Return | Last Update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reece | Industrials | $ 18.82 | $ 14.83 | -21.2% | 7/07/23 | |
Fortescue Metals | Materials | $ 22.79 | $ 18.57 | -18.5% | 12/07/23 | |
Costa Group | Staples | $ 3.30 | $ 2.90 | -12.1% | 7/07/23 | |
Commonwealth Bank of Australia | Financials | $ 101.33 | $ 89.54 | -11.6% | 11/07/23 | |
Boral | Materials | $ 4.36 | $ 3.87 | -11.2% | 19/06/23 | |
REA Group | Communications | $ 149.40 | $ 133.30 | -10.8% | 7/07/23 | |
Blackmores | Staples | $ 94.75 | $ 85.37 | -9.9% | 9/06/23 | |
Xero | Tech | $ 123.74 | $ 112.06 | -9.4% | 12/07/23 | |
Wisetech Global | Tech | $ 79.02 | $ 71.62 | -9.4% | 11/07/23 | |
Domain Holdings | Communications | $ 3.74 | $ 3.44 | -8.0% | 7/07/23 |
'Last Update' column refers to the latest broker coverage of the stock. Stocks with 'Last Update' dating back two or more months are not included in the table. 'Target price' is an aggregate of all target prices under Refinitiv's database. Close price based on Friday, 14 July 2023. (Table: Market Index | Source: Refinitiv)
Rallying Past Consensus
The top ten stocks are up an average 36.2% in the past twelve months compared to the ASX 200's 9.1% gain. This suggests that the companies are doing the right thing but analysts are finding it hard to justify the price tag. So what's the path of least resistance?
The brokers: The brokers are right and the businesses are beginning to get overvalued and due a pullback
The companies: The companies have to be doing something right to outperform the market by this kind of margin. The trend is your friend and you're paying for it
It's interesting to note that the ten stocks come from six very different sectors: Defensive (Industrials, Communications and Staples), Growth (Tech) and Cyclicals (Materials and Financials).
Honorable Mentions
The ASX 200 stocks ranked 11-20 for most downside, which follows a similar narrative as the top 10: Average twelve-month gain of 26.7% and come from seven unique sectors.
Ticker | Name | Sector | Close Price | Target price | Return | Last Update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Evolution Mining | Materials | $ 3.77 | $ 3.50 | -7.2% | 6/07/23 | |
Origin Energy | Utilities | $ 8.58 | $ 8.01 | -6.6% | 22/06/23 | |
Pro Medicus | Health Care | $ 65.49 | $ 61.36 | -6.3% | 3/07/23 | |
AGL Energy | Utilities | $ 11.40 | $ 10.76 | -5.6% | 22/06/23 | |
Core Lithium | Materials | $ 0.99 | $ 0.93 | -5.6% | 4/07/23 | |
BWP Trust | Real Estate | $ 3.68 | $ 3.52 | -4.3% | 28/06/23 | |
Insurance Australia Group | Financials | $ 5.74 | $ 5.50 | -4.2% | 11/07/23 | |
HMC Capital | Real Estate | $ 5.05 | $ 4.84 | -4.2% | 26/06/23 | |
Megaport | Tech | $ 9.54 | $ 9.19 | -3.7% | 12/07/23 | |
ARB Corporation | Discretionary | $ 30.30 | $ 29.22 | -3.6% | 10/07/23 |
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