The best and worst ASX 200 stocks each year for the last decade - Where are they now?

With the end of the year upon us, we’re on the cusp of getting a host of interesting data interrogating and summarising performance over the past 12 months.

Hugh Dive will share with us his Dogs of the ASX wire in January – a fan favourite – which looks at the performance of the 10 worst companies on the ASX at the end of 2022 and how they performed this year. He will also share the 2023 ‘dogs’ with us.

Inspired by Dive’s analysis but not wanting to steal any of his well-deserved thunder, I thought it might be an interesting exercise to review the best and worst-performing ASX 200 stock each year for the past decade.

In my mind, I expected they would make for interesting reading – but perhaps not as interesting as it turned out. 

The sum total of the investigation is that being either the best or the worst in any given year is, statistically speaking, not a good place to occupy.

Some Caveats

Whilst every effort was made to gather the correct data, some of this information was not particularly easy to piece together. I apologise in advance for any errors, and I am happy to hear from people if corrections need to be made - please comment below. 

It has also been pointed out to me that stocks move in and out of the 200 each quarter and that there is a great deal of survivorship bias in the ASX 200. In any event, I don’t think that it takes anything away from the fun of the thought experiment, nor the insights gleaned. 

The Best Performers

Please note the following:

• Return = percentage return in the year the stocks was the best (or worst) performer

• Since = percentage return taken from the last closing price in the year the stocks was the best (or worst) performer, up until close of business 5/12/23. Dividends are not included. 

Wow, where to start?

The biggest standout to me was the number of stocks (five) that have since been delisted after being the best performer in a given year. 

One or two delistings might make sense, but five? Here's what happened with each of them. 

Slater and Gordon

This was a stinker. From market darling in 2013, to the worst performer in 2015, to being taken off the exchange in April 2023. It was a wild ride for SGH, the worst of which involved a disastrous takeover of UK rival Quindell for $1.3 billion in 2015. In April 2015, at the peak, SGH had a market cap of $2.7 billion. It was sold to Allegro Funds (private equity) for a reported $150 million. 

Liquefied Natural Gas

The company flagged intentions to delist from Australia and relist in America but that didn't eventuate. 

As announced to the ASX on 9 February 2021, the creditors of the Companies resolved to terminate on 8 February 2021 the Deed of Company Arrangement (Deed) which had been entered into with Aureus LNG GmbH (Aureus) on 8 October 2020 and place the Companies into liquidation.

Blackmores

This was one of the better outcomes for the companies delisted, with Kirin Holdings buying Blackmores for $1.88 billion ($91.71 per share + $3.29 special dividend = $95). Still, that was a long way from the all-time high around $215 per share. 

Saracen

This was a solid outcome, with Saracen merging with Northern Star (ASX: NST). Saracen shareholders received 0.3763 of a Northern Star share for every Saracen share held. 

Afterpay

Afterpay was purchased by Square (now Block) for US$29 billion in 2021, which sounds like a nice number. Shareholders received 0.375 of Square class A stock for each unit held, implying a price of A$126.21 per share at the time of the announcement. The deal, in hindsight, has been universally panned, with Block widely viewed as having paid too much. Square initially priced Afterpay’s stock at $130, when its share price was US$247.26. Square's share price is now around US$100. Square's market cap peak was US$127 billion, it's now around US$40 billion - really bringing into perspective the US$29 billion paid. 

The rest

Avita Medical and Bravura have lost three-quarters of their value, and a2 Milk more than half. Whitehaven is down 25% but is playing in, what could be argued, a declining industry. Which leaves Pilbara as the only gainer. It's lonely at the top. 

The Worst Performers

The worst performers fared slightly better, but only just. 

SGH makes the list again, the only stock to make both, whilst CIMIC delisted amid numerous high-profile international bribery and corruption scandals and a reputation of opaque finances and governance.

The Retail Food Group share price has been smashed almost to oblivion, down 98%, whilst Syrah (-61%), BC Iron - now BCI Minerals (-40%) and ZipCo (-22%) have all done it tough. 

The good news?

• Silver Lake Resources has doubled since its torrid year in 2013. 

• Costa Group has experienced a wild ride over its entire journey but is up 28% since its stinker in 2019 (and has agreed to a $1.5 billion takeover offer from Paine Schwartz Partners at $3.20 per share) 

• Flight Centre has come back after COVID rocked it in 2020 - although it has had to raise capital since then. 

The bottom line

If one were asked to put together a list of companies that have had extraordinary journeys over the past 10 years, they needn't go too far beyond those above. 

Fortunes made and lost, takeovers, volatile journeys, wild swings, corporate and governance failures, bribery, delistings, private equity - you name it, this bunch has had it all. 

What about 2023?

As it stands (as at the close yesterday), Core Lithium (ASX: CXO) is the worst performer in the ASX 200 so far this year, whilst the best performer is... Emerald Resources (ASX: EMR). 

We wish them well. 

Originally published on Livewire Markets.