The 10 most overbought and oversold ASX 200 stocks – Week 4
Data#3 lands itself as the most overbought sold on the ASX 200 after breaking out to all-time highs.
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Mentioned
KEY POINTS
- Data#3 lands itself as the most overbought stock on the ASX 200 after breaking out to all-time highs
- Beaten up battery metal names continue to dominate the oversold stock list
- Oversold stocks including Arcadium Lithium, Nickel Industries and Chalice Mining are all down more than 40% in the last twelve months
Big tech outperformance is one of the major market developments in early 2024, with heavyweight names like Nvidia and Microsoft both rallying to all-time highs last Friday. This strength has influenced local names like Data#3 (ASX: DTL), which rallied into record territory after announcing an earnings upgrade last week.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude and speed of recent price changes to assess whether or not a stock is overbought or oversold.
An RSI of 70 or above is considered to be overbought, which means the stock is rising too quickly and likely to experience a pullback. Meanwhile, an RSI of 30 or below is considered to be oversold, which means the stock is falling too quickly and is likely to experience a rebound.
Based on this indicator, Data#3 is the most overbought stock on the ASX 200 with an RSI of 79.
Most Overbought ASX 200 Stocks
Ticker | Company | RSI | 1-Month % | Close Price | Target price | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data#3 | 79 | 10.4% | $9.12 | $7.98 | -12.5% | |
Helia | 78 | 7.8% | $4.58 | $3.69 | -19.4% | |
Netwealth | 76 | 15.0% | $17.12 | $15.36 | -10.3% | |
CSR | 72 | 4.8% | $6.77 | $6.01 | -11.2% | |
Corporate Travel Management | 72 | 7.7% | $20.69 | $22.02 | 6.4% | |
Brambles | 72 | 8.5% | $14.28 | $15.14 | 6.0% | |
Medibank Private | 71 | 8.8% | $3.85 | $3.91 | 1.6% | |
Harvey Norman | 71 | 6.2% | $4.30 | $3.67 | -14.7% | |
Paladin Energy | 70 | 24.2% | $1.23 | $1.26 | 2.4% | |
Inghams | 70 | 10.4% | $4.26 | $3.99 | -6.3% |
'Target price' is an aggregate of broker target prices from Refinitiv. Data of Friday, 19 January 2024 close.
Data#3 raised its half-year FY24 guidance by approximately 9%, anticipating a net profit before tax between $30-31 million, up from its prior guidance of $27-29 million. The upgrade was primarily due to higher interest income from "effective working capital management, improved deposit rate and strong debt-free balance sheet."
The response was brokers was relatively mixed. Here are some of the key takeaways:
Analysts expressed confidence in Data#3's ability to capitalise on the growing generative AI opportunity
Microsoft relationship is a key differentiator among competitors
Data#3's participation in Microsoft 365's Co-Pilot Early Access Program viewed as a catalyst for growth
Analysts cautious on factors such as increased competition impacting profit margins, deterioration in partner relationships and potential consumer concentration
Thematically speaking, the overbought stock list shows a number of themes including: Strength among insurers and investment administration, uranium and consumer stocks.
Most Oversold ASX 200 Stocks
The oversold list continues to feature a number of beaten up battery names, many of which are down more than 40% in the past twelve months.
Ticker | Company | RSI | 1-Month % | Close Price | Target price | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arcadium Lithium | 23 | na | $8.09 | na | na | |
Nickel Industries | 25 | -14.0% | $0.59 | $1.04 | 77.8% | |
Chalice Mining | 26 | -38.5% | $1.07 | $2.90 | 171.0% | |
Newmont Corp | 28 | -13.5% | $52.60 | na | na | |
AGL Energy | 28 | -3.7% | $8.75 | $11.35 | 29.7% | |
Evolution Mining | 29 | -15.7% | $3.17 | $3.71 | 17.0% | |
Liontown Resources | 29 | -18.4% | $1.20 | $1.69 | 41.4% | |
BHP | 29 | -7.3% | $45.73 | $51.24 | 12.0% | |
Sayona Mining | 29 | -30.8% | $0.05 | $0.17 | 277.8% | |
Cleanaway Waste | 30 | -5.8% | $2.46 | $2.77 | 12.6% |
'Target price' is an aggregate of broker target prices from Refinitiv. Data of Friday, 19 January 2024 close.
