How Trump’s win has impacted markets in 10 incredible charts
Thu 07 Nov 24, 2:13pm (AEDT)
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Market Wraps
/Evening Wrap: ASX 200 gains as Trump trade rewards US earners, higher yield winners, but torches gold and renewables stocks
Market Wraps
Evening Wrap: ASX 200 gains as Trump trade rewards US earners, higher yield winners, but torches gold and renewables stocks
Thu 07 Nov 24, 6:13pm (AEDT)
Stocks in article
The S&P/ASX 200 closed 26.8 points higher, up 0.33%.
Sometimes it's a fine line between agony and ecstasy in financial markets. Either you were on the right side of the Trump trade today or you weren't – it really was that simple.
If you've already checked your portfolio prior to reading this, you'll know which of your stocks were lavished with love and money, and which were downright torched!
Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.
Let's dive in!
Today in Review
Thu 07 Nov 24, 5:22pm (AEDT)
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Markets
ASX 200 Session Chart
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 26.8 points higher at 8,226.3, 0.93% from its session low and just 0.06% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), decliners just pipped advancers by 140 to 139.
What a day! Either you were on the right side of the Trump / Red Sweep or you were swept way in a sea of red.
It was euphoria for any stocks that have US earnings exposure, or more generally, that derive a significant portion of their earnings in US dollars (so Computershare (ASX: CPU) (+6.1%), Alcoa Corporation (ASX: AAI) (+5.6%), Bluescope Steel (ASX: BSL) (+5.5%), Sims (ASX: SGM) (+4.3%), Block (ASX: SQ2) (+3.5%), and News Corporation (ASX: NWS) (+2.4%) etc...)
You also got showered in cash if your business model prefers higher rather than lower market yields – given market yields have rocketed in anticipation of President-elect Trump's expansionary fiscal policies (so CPU again, but insurers like QBE Insurance Group (ASX: QBE) (+4.8%), Insurance Australia Group (ASX: IAG) (+2.8%), and Suncorp Group (ASX: SUN) (+2.1%) also love higher market yields, and so too do debt collectors like Credit Corp Group (ASX: CCP) (+4.9%)!).
Interestingly, several lithium stocks also bounced back today (IGO (ASX: IGO) (+4.3%), Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR) (+3.8%), Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) (+3.4%), and Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN) (+3.4%)), bucking the idea that a Trump win is bad for the EV industry and renewables in general.
Other areas of the China EV/China tariffs/renewables story still got belted today, so go figure on lithium’s strength (lithium minerals prices were very modestly higher in China today, up around 1% – but I don’t think that’s it).
There was a theory doing the rounds that lithium and other resources including iron ore and energy stocks were rising on hopes of further China stimulus measures would be announced during tomorrow's standing committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC).
This is vaguely plausible given BHP Group (ASX: BHP) (+%), Fortescue (ASX: FMG) (+%), and Rio Tinto's (ASX: RIO) (+%)) gains in iron ore and Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) (+3.2%) and Santos’s (ASX: STO) (+2.4%) recovery in energy.
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Computershare (CPU) | $29.22 | +$1.68 | +6.1% | +10.9% | +19.7% |
Johns Lyng Group (JLG) | $4.13 | +$0.22 | +5.6% | +14.1% | -35.8% |
Alcoa Corporation (AAI) | $68.47 | +$3.63 | +5.6% | +22.9% | 0% |
Bluescope Steel (BSL) | $22.93 | +$1.2 | +5.5% | +4.9% | +17.7% |
Worley (WOR) | $15.18 | +$0.78 | +5.4% | +4.2% | -9.4% |
Latin Resources (LRS) | $0.200 | +$0.01 | +5.3% | +2.6% | -25.9% |
Tabcorp (TAH) | $0.510 | +$0.025 | +5.2% | +6.3% | -37.8% |
Credit Corp Group (CCP) | $18.20 | +$0.85 | +4.9% | +7.9% | +48.8% |
QBE Insurance Group (QBE) | $18.47 | +$0.85 | +4.8% | +14.9% | +19.1% |
Fletcher Building (FBU) | $2.89 | +$0.13 | +4.7% | +0.3% | -26.0% |
Karoon Energy (KAR) | $1.430 | +$0.06 | +4.4% | -6.5% | -42.7% |
IGO (IGO) | $5.28 | +$0.22 | +4.3% | -1.5% | -45.3% |
Bravura Solutions (BVS) | $1.460 | +$0.06 | +4.3% | -4.9% | +82.5% |
Sims (SGM) | $13.66 | +$0.56 | +4.3% | +6.6% | +7.7% |
GQG Partners (GQG) | $2.71 | +$0.11 | +4.2% | +2.3% | +97.1% |
Magellan Financial Group (MFG) | $10.59 | +$0.42 | +4.1% | +3.0% | +53.0% |
Liontown Resources (LTR) | $0.815 | +$0.03 | +3.8% | +3.2% | -50.5% |
Metals Acquisition (MAC) | $19.94 | +$0.72 | +3.7% | -3.7% | 0% |
Block (SQ2) | $118.96 | +$4.06 | +3.5% | +17.3% | +56.3% |
Pilbara Minerals (PLS) | $3.01 | +$0.1 | +3.4% | +5.6% | -20.8% |
Today's best performing ASX stocks
Anything else renewables related (especially copper) got belted, but the biggest beltings were reserved for gold stocks. It was a total shambles in that sector, as can be seen in the table below and in the Interesting Moves section further down.
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Spartan Resources (SPR) | $1.240 | -$0.26 | -17.3% | -4.2% | +220.0% |
Droneshield (DRO) | $0.850 | -$0.105 | -11.0% | -34.9% | +203.6% |
Chalice Mining (CHN) | $1.585 | -$0.195 | -11.0% | +8.6% | -14.3% |
Resolute Mining (RSG) | $0.670 | -$0.075 | -10.1% | -2.2% | +76.3% |
Westgold Resources (WGX) | $2.84 | -$0.26 | -8.4% | +12.3% | +34.0% |
Bellevue Gold (BGL) | $1.385 | -$0.115 | -7.7% | +9.5% | +1.5% |
Predictive Discovery (PDI) | $0.250 | -$0.02 | -7.4% | 0% | +8.7% |
Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP) | $30.10 | -$2.28 | -7.0% | -16.2% | -42.9% |
Perseus Mining (PRU) | $2.55 | -$0.19 | -6.9% | -1.2% | +44.1% |
Firefly Metals (FFM) | $1.215 | -$0.09 | -6.9% | +22.1% | +161.3% |
Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) | $4.70 | -$0.34 | -6.7% | +8.0% | +86.5% |
Vault Minerals (VAU) | $0.350 | -$0.025 | -6.7% | +11.1% | +6.1% |
Emerald Resources (EMR) | $3.79 | -$0.27 | -6.7% | 0% | +43.6% |
Evolution Mining (EVN) | $4.78 | -$0.33 | -6.5% | +6.5% | +36.2% |
Ora Banda Mining (OBM) | $0.810 | -$0.055 | -6.4% | +33.9% | +422.6% |
Northern Star Resources (NST) | $16.50 | -$1.11 | -6.3% | +4.4% | +37.6% |
Gold Road Resources (GOR) | $1.785 | -$0.12 | -6.3% | +2.9% | -4.3% |
Ramelius Resources (RMS) | $2.12 | -$0.13 | -5.8% | -1.4% | +27.7% |
De Grey Mining (DEG) | $1.360 | -$0.075 | -5.2% | -0.7% | +19.0% |
Regis Resources (RRL) | $2.48 | -$0.13 | -5.0% | +24.6% | +41.7% |
Today's worst performing ASX stocks
ChartWatch
No ChartWatch today given I pretty much covered everything in this article: How Trump’s win has impacted markets in 10 incredible charts
Economy
Today
CNY Trade Balance October RMB 679 billion vs RMB 560 billion forecast and RMB 583 billion in September
Strong export growth, +12.7% y/y vs +5.0% forecast and +2.4% y/y in September indicates strong global demand for China's goods and services
But, imports -2.3% was worse than expected (vs -1.5% y/y forecast and +0.3% y/y in September indicates still sluggish domestic economic activity
Later this week
Thursday
23:00 UK Bank of England (BOE) Official Bank Rate announcement and Monetary Policy Summary
Friday
06:00 USA FOMC Meeting and Federal Fund Rate announcement (-0.25% forecast to 4.50-4.75%)
06:30 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell press conference
Saturday
02:00 USA University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (70.6 forecast vs 70.5 previous)
12:30 CHN Consumer Price Index (CPI) October y/y (+0.3% p.a. vs +0.4% p.a. in September)
12:30 CHN Producer Price Index (PPI) October y/y (-2.5% p.a. vs -2.8% p.a. in September)
Latest News
Interesting Movers
Trading higher
+24.9% Sigma Healthcare (SIG) - Sigma & Chemist Warehouse deal not opposed and Sigma welcomes the ACCC's decision, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrend, has been a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈
+8.5% Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) - Continued positive response to yesterday's PRV sold for US$150m - Neuren to receive one third, but also today's Q3 2024 update
+6.2% Weebit Nano (WBT) - No news, generally positive two days for ASX technology sector
+6.1% Computershare (CPU) - No news, CPU's profitability increases when market yields rise - market yields have spiked on Trump win
+5.6% Alcoa Corporation (AAI) - No news, large US dollar earnings, beneficiary of Trump win and associated appreciation of US stocks and the US dollar
+5.5% Bluescope Steel (BSL) - No news, ditto US earnings beneficiary post Trump win
+5.4% Worley (WOR) - No news, general view is that Trump win is positive for energy development, broad strength in ASX Energy sector today
+4.9% Credit Corp Group (CCP) - No news, beneficiary of higher market yields, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up, will be in tomorrow's ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list! 🔎📈
+4.8% QBE Insurance Group (QBE) - No news, ditto insurance stocks also love higher market yields, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrend, will be in tomorrow's ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list! 🔎📈
Trading lower
-30.8% Clearview Wealth (CVW) - 2024 Annual General Meeting Addresses to Shareholders and Response to ASX Price Query, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrend 🔎📈
-17.3% Spartan Resources (SPR) - New Position South of Pepper Gold Deposit and ASX gold sector belted today on drop in gold price post-Trump win (see this article Chart 7 for more details as to why)
-11.0% Droneshield (DRO) - No news, but general view is that a Trump win is less favourable for defense stocks given proclivity to de-escalate conflicts / withdrawal of US intervention in conflicts
-10.8% Chalice Mining (CHN) - Presentation - 2024 Macquarie Western Australia Forum
-10.1% Resolute Mining (RSG) - No news, ditto gold sector belted today…
-8.7% Ioneer (INR) - No news, fears Trump win threatens US Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office loan for Rhyolite Ridge Project
-8.6% Silver Mines (SVL) - No news, ditto gold sector belted today… (silver also got belted)
-8.4% Westgold Resources (WGX) - No news, ditto gold sector belted today…
-8.3% Syrah Resources (SYR) - No new, but also likely related to Trump win, general view is unfavorable for renewables/EV industry/China EV production (via punitive tariffs) and therefore EV materials explorers, developers, and producers
-7.7% Bellevue Gold (BGL) - No news, ditto gold sector belted today…
-7.0% Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP) - AGM Address and Presentation 2024 but also continued negative response to 5 Nov Announcement regarding CEO, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrend, one of the most Featured stocks in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📈
-6.9% Perseus Mining (PRU) - No news, ditto gold sector belted today…
-6.9% Firefly Metals (FFM) - Restricted shares to be released from escrow, but ditto gold/renewables (copper)/battery materials/China exposure etc…
-6.7% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - No news, ditto battery materials/China exposure…
-6.7% Vault Minerals (VAU) - No news, ditto gold sector belted today…
-6.7% Emerald Resources (EMR) - No news, ditto gold sector belted today…
-6.5% Evolution Mining (EVN) - No news, ditto gold sector belted today…
-6.4% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - Investor Presentation, but ditto gold sector belted today…
-6.3% Northern Star Resources (NST) - No news, ditto gold sector belted today…
-6.3% Gold Road Resources (GOR) - Investor Presentation - Macquarie WA Forum, but ditto gold sector belted today…
-5.8% Ramelius Resources (RMS) - No news, ditto gold sector belted today…
-5.2% De Grey Mining (DEG) - No news, ditto gold sector belted today…
-5.0% Regis Resources (RRL) - Legal Proceedings Commenced for Review of McPhillamys , but ditto gold sector belted today…
-4.9% Wildcat Resources (WC8) - No news, ditto battery materials/China exposure…
Broker Notes
Amotiv (AOV)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $13.64
Eagers Automotive (APE)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.50
ARB Corporation (ARB)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $43.80
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $47.00
Autosports Group (ASG)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.80
Australian Vanadium (AVL)
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.08
Breville Group (BRG)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.10
Brightstar Resources (BTR)
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.04
Capitol Health (CAJ)
Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.33
Collins Foods (CKF)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.88
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.30
Coles Group (COL)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $19.50
Domain Australia (DHG)
Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.20 from $3.50
Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.20 from $3.65
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.20 from $3.40
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.10 from $3.50
Retained at hold at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.00 from $3.40
Retained at underweight at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.70 from $2.90
Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $32.20
Endeavour Group (EDV)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.18
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.40
Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $17.50 from $20.30
Fleetpartners Group (FPR)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.46
Goodman Group (GMG)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $40.00
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $36.47
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $42.40
Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $35.00
Harvey Norman (HVN)
Downgraded to sell from neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.00 from $4.50
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.00
Inghams Group (ING)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.50
JB HI-FI (JBH)
Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $66.90 from $54.40
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $77.00
James Hardie Industries (JHX)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $50.90
Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $55.00 from $52.00
KMD Brands (KMD)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.45
Maas Group (MGH)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.06 from $4.95
McMillan Shakespeare (MMS)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $20.78
Metcash (MTS)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.45
Monash IVF Group (MVF)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.85
National Australia Bank (NAB)
Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $26.50
Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $35.00
Nick Scali (NCK)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.60
Pro Medicus (PME)
Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $180.50 from $152.50
Premier Investments (PMV)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $34.20
Prospect Resources (PSC)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.30
Redox (RDX)
Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.15 from $3.08
REA Group (REA)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $230.00
Scentre Group (SCG)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.60
SG Fleet Group (SGF)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.18
Sigma Healthcare (SIG)
Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.00
Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.60
Super Retail Group (SUL)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.90
Suncorp Group (SUN)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $18.55 from $17.70
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $19.20 from $18.50
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $20.50
Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $19.65
Temple & Webster Group (TPW)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $13.55
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $13.90
Universal Store (UNI)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.40
Wesfarmers (WES)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $75.30
Woolworths Group (WOW)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $32.50
Zip Co. (ZIP)
Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Bank of America; Price Target: $3.20 from $1.50
Scans
Carl has over 30-years investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.
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