Gold prices are soaring: Which ASX gold miner has the highest upside?
Tue 05 Mar 24, 1:07pm (AEDT)
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Market Wraps
/Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dips as gold shines and lithium's rally comes to an abrupt end
Market Wraps
Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dips as gold shines and lithium's rally comes to an abrupt end
Tue 05 Mar 24, 1:54pm (AEST)
Stocks in article
The S&P/ASX 200 closed 11.6 points lower, down 0.15%.
Earnings season and the wall of results and broker upgrades and downgrades is behind us, which leaves Aussie investors to focus more on macro themes such as local and Chinese growth, and the usual ebb and flow of commodity prices.
It was a quiet session on the S&P/ASX 200 which dipped just 12 points in listless trade. News on China's economic aspirations in 2024 failed to excite, while rising gold prices and falling lithium prices sent stocks in those sectors in opposite directions.
Tomorrow, we'll get a reading on local economic growth with the release of GDP figures for the December quarter, and later in the week, important data on US employment plus two speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Let’s dive in!
Today in Review
Tue 05 Mar 24, 5:17pm (AEDT)
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Markets
ASX 200 Session Chart
The S&P/ASX200 (XJO) finished 11.6 points lower at 7,724.2, 0.16% from its session low and 0.36% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by 127 to 145.
The Gold (XGD) (+4.0%) sector was easily the best performing sector today as gold futures on COMEX surged to 3-month highs and just shy of the US$2,152/oz record set on 4 December.
COMEX gold futures are enjoying a strong 2-day rally
Here's a list of today's best performers, but check out ChartWatch below for a list of the ASX gold stocks currently in long term uptrends.
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Westgold Resources (WGX) | $2.46 | +$0.25 | +11.3% | +20.0% | +153.6% |
Genesis Minerals (GMD) | $1.825 | +$0.125 | +7.4% | +13.7% | +67.4% |
Silver Lake Resources (SLR) | $1.175 | +$0.065 | +5.9% | +4.9% | +9.8% |
Regis Resources (RRL) | $2.03 | +$0.105 | +5.5% | +3.0% | +11.5% |
Emerald Resources (EMR) | $3.15 | +$0.16 | +5.4% | +2.6% | +118.0% |
West African Resources (WAF) | $1.015 | +$0.045 | +4.6% | +8.0% | +5.7% |
Red 5 (RED) | $0.355 | +$0.015 | +4.4% | +4.4% | +173.1% |
Ramelius Resources (RMS) | $1.575 | +$0.065 | +4.3% | +6.1% | +59.9% |
Evolution Mining (EVN) | $3.20 | +$0.11 | +3.6% | +3.6% | +13.1% |
Northern Star Resources (NST) | $14.13 | +$0.41 | +3.0% | +5.5% | +28.8% |
Capricorn Metals (CMM) | $5.18 | +$0.15 | +3.0% | +14.6% | +28.5% |
Perseus Mining (PRU) | $1.920 | +$0.05 | +2.7% | +12.3% | -10.3% |
Gold stocks shone out at the ASX's best performers today
Doing it tough today was the lithium sector which sagged under the weight of a second day of lower lithium carbonate futures prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX). At the time of writing, the benchmark July contract is trading down just over 5% to RMB 113,850/t.
GFEX lithium carbonate futures are tumbling
The daily chart of GFEX lithium carbonate (not including today's incomplete candle) shows this move comes on the back of a key reversal candle logged yesterday at a band of historical supply in the zone defined by RMB 121,00/t and RMB 131450/t.
Lithium carbonate futures have failed at a key historical supply zone
The previous zone of supply between RMB 108,150/t and RMB 113,800/t is likely to act as a zone of demand going forward. White candles and or downward pointing shadows would confirm this. If on the other hand, we see black candles or upward pointing shadows in this zone, then the supply side has regained control and the lithium carbonate price could retest the lows between RMB 92,700/t and RMB 85,400/t.
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Piedmont Lithium Inc (PLL) | $0.220 | -$0.025 | -10.2% | +10.0% | -77.1% |
Latin Resources (LRS) | $0.210 | -$0.02 | -8.7% | +55.6% | +68.0% |
Wildcat Resources (WC8) | $0.710 | -$0.065 | -8.4% | +69.0% | +2348.3% |
Pilbara Minerals (PLS) | $4.10 | -$0.31 | -7.0% | +19.5% | +0.5% |
Sayona Mining (SYA) | $0.042 | -$0.003 | -6.7% | +7.7% | -82.1% |
Ioneer (INR) | $0.145 | -$0.01 | -6.5% | +16.0% | -58.6% |
IGO (IGO) | $7.73 | -$0.43 | -5.3% | +12.2% | -43.8% |
Liontown Resources (LTR) | $1.275 | -$0.055 | -4.1% | +42.5% | -6.6% |
Mineral Resources (MIN) | $64.00 | -$2.4 | -3.6% | +13.9% | -28.9% |
Core Lithium (CXO) | $0.240 | -$0.005 | -2.0% | +29.7% | -74.9% |
ChartWatch
Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST)
Records are made to be broken
Given the strong performance of gold stocks today it is only fitting to cover the biggest Australian domiciled gold producer, Northern Star Resources.
I can see a well established and strong long term uptrend here, supported by a short term trend which has just turned higher, and some very good recent price action and candles. Today's close above 13.93 demonstrates further an environment of building demand and supply removal.
14.44 is the final near-term key point of supply. The consolidation phase between it and the present provides a broad base of potential support should NST be able to break higher and out of this range.
Despite gold's heroics over the past two trading sessions, many ASX listed gold stocks remain in long term downtrends, plagued by production issues and rising input costs. For your reference and research, here is a list of major gold stocks which are currently trading in a long term uptrends:
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Westgold Resources (WGX) | $2.46 | +$0.25 | +11.3% | +20.0% | +153.6% |
Genesis Minerals (GMD) | $1.825 | +$0.125 | +7.4% | +13.7% | +67.4% |
Emerald Resources (EMR) | $3.15 | +$0.16 | +5.4% | +2.6% | +118.0% |
Red 5 (RED) | $0.355 | +$0.015 | +4.4% | +4.4% | +173.1% |
Northern Star Resources (NST) | $14.13 | +$0.41 | +3.0% | +5.5% | +28.8% |
Capricorn Metals (CMM) | $5.18 | +$0.15 | +3.0% | +14.6% | +28.5% |
Ora Banda Mining (OBM) | $0.260 | $0 | 0% | +18.2% | +136.4% |
Santana Minerals (SMI) | $1.240 | -$0.035 | -2.7% | -13.9% | +59.0% |
Gold stocks in a long term uptrend
Economy
Today
There were no major economic news releases today
Later this week
Wednesday
02:00 USA ISM Services PMI February (forecast 53.0 vs January 53.4)
11:30 AU GDP December Quarter (forecast +0.2% vs September +0.2%)
Thursday
02:00 US Speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell
02:00 US JOLTS Job Openings January (forecast 8.8M vs 9.03M December)
Friday
00:15 ECB Meeting & Monetary Policy Statement (forecast no change at 4.5%)
02:00 US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell semiannual monetary policy testimony to a House committee
Saturday
00:30 US Non-Farm Employment Change February (forecast +198K vs 353K January), Unemployment Rate (forecast 3.7% vs 3.7% January), & Average Hourly Earnings (forecast +0.2% vs +0.6% January)
12:30 CHN Consumer Price Index (CPI) February (forecast +0.3% vs -0.8% January)
12:30 CHN Producer Price Index (PPI) February (forecast -2.5% vs -2.5% January)
Latest News
Interesting Movers
Trading higher
+14.7% Healius (HLS) - HLS Strategic Review and CEO Resignation and Appointment
+12.5% Iress (IRE) - Media reports that a potential bid for Iress is being weighed by Thomas Bravo, trading was halted just before the session close
+11.3% Westgold Resources (WGX) - No news, gold sector strength on rising gold price, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends
+9.9% Red Hill Minerals (RHI) - No news, gold sector strength on rising gold price, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends
+8.2% Tyro Payments (TYR) - No news 🤔
+7.4% Genesis Minerals (GMD) - No news, gold sector strength on rising gold price, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends
+7.0% Predictive Discovery (PDI) - No news, gold sector strength on rising gold price
+6.7% Austal (ASB) - Austal USA delivers future USS Kingsville (LCS36) to US Navy
+6.1% Tabcorp Holdings (TAH) - No news 🤔
+5.9% Silver Lake Resources (SLR) - No news, gold sector strength on rising gold price
+5.6% Immutep (IMM) - First Clinical Data announced from 90mg Dosing of Efti, retained at buy at Bell Potter & price target $0.65 from $0.55, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends
+5.5% Aussie Broadband (ABB) - No news, upgraded to overweight from underweight at Morgan Stanley & price target: $5.50 from $2.40
+5.5% Newmont Corporation (NEM) - No news, gold sector strength on rising gold price
+5.5% Regis Resources (RRL) - Becoming a substantial holder notice, also gold sector strength on rising gold price
+5.4% Bravura Solutions (BVS) - No news, continued positive response to H1 FY24 Results released 20 Feb
+5.4% Emerald Resources (EMR) - No news, gold sector strength on rising gold price, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend
+5.3% Imdex (IMD) - No news, continued positive response to H1 FY24 Results released 19 Feb
+4.9% Chalice Mining (CHN) - No news 🤔
+4.6% West African Resources (WAF) - No news, gold sector strength on rising gold price
+4.4% Red 5 (RED) - No news, gold sector strength on rising gold price, upgraded to buy from hold at Moelis Australia & price target: $0.40 from $0.34, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends
+4.3% Ramelius Resources (RMS) - No news, gold sector strength on rising gold price
Trading lower
-8.7% Latin Resources (LRS) - No news, lithium sector correction as lithium minerals prices in China pull back
-7.0% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) - No news, lithium sector correction as lithium minerals prices in China pull back
-6.8% Strike Energy (STX) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends
-6.7% Sayona Mining (SYA) - Lithium sector correction as lithium minerals prices in China pull back, State Street no longer substantial shareholder (4 March), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends
-5.7% Brainchip Holdings (BRN) - No news, pull back after recent bounce from short and long term trend ribbons
-5.3% IGO (IGO) - No news, lithium sector correction as lithium minerals prices in China pull back, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend
-4.6% Super Retail Group (SUL) - No news, continued negative reponse to H1 FY24 Results on 22 Feb, goes ex-div tomorrow $0.32 fully franked
-4.6% Bluescope Steel (BSL) - No news, has logged several black candles since 26 Feb
-4.5% Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) - No news, ralied with lithium stocks, falls with lithium stocks
-4.4% Mader Group (MAD) - No news, at risk of closing below long term trend ribbon
-4.4% Chrysos Corporation (C79) - No news, has logged several black candles since 28 Feb, closed below historical support at the 22 Feb low of $6.60
-4.1% Liontown Resources (LTR) - No news, pull back after recent bounce off short and long term trend ribbons
-3.8% Iluka Resources (ILU) - No news, ralied with lithium stocks, falls with lithium stocks
-3.6% Mineral Resources (MIN) - No news, lithium sector correction as lithium minerals prices in China pull back
-3.6% Novonix (NVX) - No news, ralied with lithium stocks, falls with lithium stocks
-3.4% Endeavour Group (EDV) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends
-3.3% Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ) - Gold Fields Contract Extension, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends
-3.3% Lovisa Holdings (LOV) - No news, pull back after massive run following co's H1 FY24 results on 22 Feb
-3.2% Bannerman Energy (BMN) - No news, generally weaker uranium sector as spot uranium price continuees to fall
Broker Notes
Life360 (360)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $14.20 from $10.50
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $14.40 from $11.50
Aussie Broadband (ABB) upgraded to overweight from underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.50 from $2.40
Australian Finance Group (AFG) upgraded to neutral from sell at Citi; Price Target: $1.50
Aeris Resources (AIS) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.13
Alcidion Group (ALC) retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.05 from $0.08
Atlas Arteria (ALX) retained at equalweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.06
AMP (AMP) retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.25
ANZ Group (ANZ) retained at hold at Citi; Price Target: $26.00
Aurizon Holdings (AZJ) retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.77
Beforepay Group (B4P) retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.00
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN) retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $8.60
Capitol Health (CAJ)
Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $0.27 from $0.36
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.32 from $0.30
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.31 from $0.30
Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.27 from $0.25
Retained at marketweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $0.27 from $0.25
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $82.00
Cochlear (COH) retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $255.00
CSL (CSL) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $310.00
DGL Group (DGL) retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $0.75 from $0.92
Droneshield (DRO) upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.90
Fletcher Building (FBU) upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA; Price Target: $4.35 from $4.45
Fineos Corporation Holdings (FCL) retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.25 from $2.70
Firefly Metals (FFM) retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.20
Integral Diagnostics (IDX) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.65
IVE Group (IGL) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.70 from $2.65
Imdex (IMD) retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.25
Immutep (IMM) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.65 from $0.55
Imricor Medical Systems (IMR) initiated speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.96
Johns Lyng Group (JLG) retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.50 from $8.35
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.40
Monadelphous Group (MND) retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $16.20
Megaport (MP1) retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $16.80 from $12.05
Macquarie Group (MQG) retained at hold at Citi; Price Target: $161.00
Mount Ridley Mines (MRG) retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.30
MMA Offshore (MRM) initiated buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.60
Monash IVF Group (MVF) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.55
MyState (MYS) initiated buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.95
National Australia Bank (NAB) retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $25.75
Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings (NEC) retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.10
National Storage REIT (NSR) retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.60
NRW Holdings (NWH) retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.25
News Corporation (NWS) retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $45.00
Pro Medicus (PME) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $120.00
Polynovo (PNV) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.75
Pepper Money (PPM)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.55 from $1.40
Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $1.60 from $1.50
Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.70 from $1.35
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.80 from $1.50
Perenti (PRN) retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.25
Platinum Asset Management (PTM)
Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.80 from $0.85
Upgraded to neutral from sell at Citi; Price Target: $1.15 from $1.00
Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.00 from $1.12
Retained at underweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $1.00 from $1.06
Qantas Airways (QAN) upgraded to outperform from underperform at CLSA; Price Target: $6.00 from $5.60
Qube Holdings (QUB) retained at equalweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.48
Red 5 (RED) upgraded to buy from hold at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $0.40 from $0.34
Regis Healthcare (REG) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.85
Resmed Inc (RMD) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $33.45
South32 (S32) upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.40 from $3.10
Stockland (SGP) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.10
Select Harvests (SHV) upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.10 from $4.20
Sigma Healthcare (SIG) retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.15 from $0.78
Service Stream (SSM) retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.20
Seven West Media (SWM) retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $0.24
Transurban Group (TCL) retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $13.68
Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC) retained at hold at Citi; Price Target: $22.25
Woolworths Group (WOW) retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $40.40
Xero (XRO)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $152.00
Upgraded to outperform from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $152.60 from $87.00
Scans
Carl has over 30-years investing experience and has helped investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.
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