Evening Wrap: ASX 200 tumbles as ANZ, CBA, NAB, and WBC continue to tumble, Telstra shines on buy-back

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 96.4 points lower, down 1.15%.

Strong gains in Telstra (TLS) (5.6%) and Whitehaven Coal (WHC) (+8.9%) weren't enough to overcome another day of heavy losses in the banking sector. Another day, another disappointing response to one of the Big 4's quarterly updates. Today it was ANZ Group's (ANZ) (-3.1%) turn to take a beating.

After four straight days of accelerating losses, one might suspect Aussie investors are left wondering...what went wrong!? 🤔

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 96.4 points lower at 8,322.8, 1.16% from its session high and 0.42% from its high/low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a dismal 95 to 178.

Yesterday I spoke of the "barbell" – the way that some sectors performed very well, others very poorly, and most somewhere in between with either small gains or losses.

It was kind of a barbell day today, but one more skewed to the “in between” stuff trading generally lower. There were still decent winners at one end, but today the losers suffered that little bit more as the ASX 200 was dragged into its fourth day of losses.

Looking at the XJO chart below, you'll see it was the fourth day of accelerating losses. Nasty stuff those accelerating losses, because it speaks to the growing disillusionment among Aussie investors. The supply side is growing increasingly nervous and the demand side increasingly timid.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) chart (click here for full size image)

Add in the fact that we solidified the break below the dynamic demand of the short term uptrend ribbon as well as slicing through the static point of demand at 8353, and you’d be justified in wondering how it all could have gone wrong so quickly after Friday’s record high of 8616. 🤔

Back to sector performances, at the “good end” of the barbell was Communication Services (XTJ) (+2.3%), but not really, because today it was really just the Telstra (ASX: TLS) (+5.6%) index. Telstra reported mostly inline earnings but surprised the market in a good way with a $750 million on-market share buy-back.

Talking about surprises, the next best performing sector index was Energy (XEJ) (+1.3%), but again, before you get too excited – it was largely down to the ripping performance of a single stock. This time it was Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC) (+8.9%) that beat market expectations with respect to its Ha FY25 results – by about double at the EBITDA line ($328 million vs consensus $185 million), plus it announced a $72 million on-market share buy-back.

The Gold (XGD) sub-index (+0.14%) snuck in with a gain as the gold price continues to hover near record highs and in pushing higher in Asian trade.

Gold Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX (click here for full size image)

At the “dodgy end” of the barbell was another kinda one-stock wonder mover in Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (-2.2%). This time it was sector heavyweight Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) (-4.9%) weighing in with a hefty fall as it resumed trading following its $4.4 billion capital raise. GMG closed well off its lows and at the session’s high, so probably not much to worry about there.

Next at the dodgy end was Health Care (XHJ) (-2.0%), still just a couple of stocks doing the damage here in the form of Healius (ASX: HLS) (-6.6%) (H1 FY25 results and board changes), and Pro Medicus (ASX: PME) (-3.7%) (no news – just a pullback?).

But the festering sore oozing index points for the past 4 days has to be Financials (XFJ) (-2.0%). Today we saw ANZ Group’s (ASX: ANZ) (-3.1%) quarterly update, and while it was less harshly dealt with than National Australia Bank (ASX: NAB) (-3.3%), Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC) (-3.0%), and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) (-2.0%) before it – it was part of a disturbing reversal in a sector that had through sheer weight of market capitalisation, underpinned much of the XJO’s gains over the past 12 months.

We'll need to see the oozing staunched soon or we shall have a date with the dark green ribbon in the XJO chart above! 😬

Economy

Today

• AUS Employment Data January

  • Employment change: +44,000 actual vs +19,400 forecast and +60,000 in December (revised up from 56,300)

  • Unemployment rate: 4.1% actual vs 4.1% forecast and 4.0% in December

  • A massive beat – and another signal the Aussie jobs market is scalding hot! 🔥🔥🔥 RBA is probably already regretting Tuesday's decision and even less likely to give the market what it wants (i.e. more rate cuts 🪓) any time soon!

• CHN People's Bank of China (PBOC) key interest rates

  • 1-y Loan Prime Rate: 3.10% (no change)

  • 5-y Loan Prime Rate: 3.60% (no change)

Later this week

Friday

• 09:00 Flash Manufacturing & Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) January

  • Manufacturing PMI (50.2 previous)

  • Services PMI (51.2 previous)

• 09:30 RBA Governor Michelle Bullock speech

• 18:00 (from) Various EU Manufacturing and Services PMIs January

Saturday

• 01:45 USA Flash Manufacturing & Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) January

  • Manufacturing PMI (forecast 51.2 vs 51.2 in December)

  • Services PMI (forecast 53.2 vs 52.9 in December)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +23.1% Nanosonics (NAN) - 2025 Half Year Financial Results, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +19.5% Megaport (MP1) - H1 FY25 Half Year Results Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈, added to ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list yesterday 🔎📈

• +19.5% The Reject Shop (TRS) - FY25 Half Year Results Presentation.

• +15.9% Droneshield (DRO) - No news 🤔.

• +9.7% Universal Store (UNI) - H1 FY25 Half Year Results Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.9% Whitehaven Coal (WHC) - Appendix 4D and H1 FY25 Results Presentation.

• +8.7% MA Financial Group (MAF) - FY24 Results Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.0% Aspen Group (APZ) - 1HFY25 Results Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.8% Mineral Resources (MIN) - No news since 18-Feb FY25 Half Year Results, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +6.0% Charter Hall Group (CHC) - Appendix 4D and HY25 Results Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.0% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) - FY25 Interim Financial Results Presentation, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +5.6% Telstra Group (TLS) - TLS - Financial Results 1HY25 presentation.

Trading lower

• -20.9% Redox (RDX) - Half Yearly Report and Accounts and Half Year Results Presentation.

• -15.1% Environmental Group (The) (EGL) - Half Yearly Report and Accounts and 1H FY25 Financial Results Investor Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• -12.5% Super Retail Group (SUL) - Appendix 4D and FY25 Interim Financial Report and Half Year Results Presentation.

• -10.7% Maas Group (MGH) - Appendix 4D and Half Year Report and Half Year Results Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• -10.1% Magellan Financial Group (MFG) - Appendix 4D and 2025 Interim Results, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• -9.3% Deep Yellow (DYL) - Legal Proceedings Namibia, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down, added to ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list yesterday 🔎📉

• -9.1% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) - FY24 Full Year Results Investor Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.9% Ridley Corporation (RIC) - Half Yearly Report and Accounts and Investor Presentation FY25 1H Results.

• -6.6% Healius (HLS) - Half Year 2025 Results and Board Changes and Company Secretary Resignation, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -6.2% Fortescue (FMG) - Appendix 4D and FY25 Half Year Results Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -6.2% Johns Lyng Group (JLG) - No news, repelled perfectly from long term downtrend ribbon! 🔎📉

• -5.4% Hansen Technologies (HSN) - Continued negative response to 19-Feb 1H25 Results.

• -4.9% Goodman Group (GMG) - Goodman successfully completes $4.0 billion Placement.

Broker Moves

• AIC Mines (A1M)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.100

• The A2 Milk Company (A2M)

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.70 from $6.20

• Auckland International Airport (AIA)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: NZ$9.80

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: NZ$8.75

• Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $74.00

• ANZ Group (ANZ)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $25.25

• Autosports Group (ASG)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.800

• Aurizon (AZJ)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.20 from $3.40

• Bega Cheese (BGA)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.55

• Beacon Lighting Group (BLX)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.12

• Beamtree (BMT)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.700

• Brambles (BXB)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $18.50

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $21.00

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $22.50

• Car Group (CAR)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $43.90

• Challenger (CGF)

  • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $7.50 from $7.90

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.65 from $6.85

• Charter Hall Group (CHC)

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $14.00

• Cosol (COS)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.150 from $1.200

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.250

• Corporate Travel Management (CTD)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $18.85 from $13.90

  • Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $17.00 from $14.00

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.48 from $13.36

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $18.30 from $16.40

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $14.48 from $12.20

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $17.00 from $14.50

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $18.00 from $15.90

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $17.60 from $13.55

• Cedar Woods Properties (CWP)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.20

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $7.00

• Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.00 from $3.30

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.40 from $3.30

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.23

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.25 from $3.30

• Domain Australia (DHG)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.00

• Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $37.34

• Data#3 (DTL)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $8.45 from $8.25

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.90 from $7.60

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $8.10 from $7.30

  • Upgraded to overweight from market-weight at Wilsons; Price Target: $9.75 from $9.23

• Ebos Group (EBO)

  • Downgraded to sell from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $32.00 from $33.00

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: NZ$42.00 from NZ$40.50

  • Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $37.00 from $35.50

• Endeavour Group (EDV)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.87

• Emeco (EHL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.180

• Electro Optic Systems (EOS)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.900 from $2.000

• Fletcher Building (FBU)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: NZ$2.85 from NZ$2.65

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: NZ$1.95 from NZ$2.15

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.48 from $3.04

• Fortescue (FMG)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $21.00

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $17.50

• Genesis Minerals (GMD)

  • Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.30

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.30 from $3.15

• Goodman Group (GMG)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $40.00

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $36.31 from $36.47

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $37.00 from $39.50

• Healius (HLS)

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.100

• HMC Capital (HMC)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $12.90 from $13.15

• Hipages Group (HPG)

  • Retained at buy at E&P; Price Target: $2.22

• Hansen Technologies (HSN)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.10 from $6.35

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.30

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $7.20

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.55 from $6.50

• Hub24 (HUB)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $84.80 from $74.50

• Insignia Financial (IFL)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.60

• Infomedia (IFM)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.10

• Iluka Resources (ILU)

  • Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.00 from $5.40

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.60 from $6.10

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.00 from $7.40

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.80

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.75

• Imdex (IMD)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.85

• IPH (IPH)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.90

• Judo Capital (JDO)

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $2.25 from $2.10

• James Hardie Industries (JHX)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $63.00 from $64.00

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $56.00

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $59.45 from $59.30

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $65.00 from $68.10

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $55.00

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $60.00 from $61.00

• Light & Wonder (LNW)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $192.00 from $180.00

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $200.00 from $156.00

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $172.40

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $191.00 from $180.00

• Magellan Financial Group (MFG)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.95 from $9.30

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $30.00 from $35.00

  • Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $30.50 from $34.00

  • Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $45.00 from $60.00

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $30.00 from $34.00

  • Retained at sell at Jarden; Price Target: $20.00 from $20.00

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $35.00 from $41.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $50.00

• Megaport (MP1)

  • Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $14.16

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $8.65

• National Australia Bank (NAB)

  • Downgraded to underperform from neutral at Bank of America; Price Target: $33.50 from $38.00

  • Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $34.30 from $34.20

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $36.90 from $38.10

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.00 from $36.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $37.40 from $38.90

  • Retained at lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $33.00

• Nanosonics (NAN)

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.25

• Navigator Global Investments (NGI)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.29 from $2.02

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.35 from $2.15

• Netwealth Group (NWL)

  • Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $31.00

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $30.75

• Opthea (OPT)

  • Upgraded to market-weight from underweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $1.000 from $0.280

• Perpetual (PPT)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $22.50 from $20.60

• Qube (QUB)

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $4.10

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.15

• REA Group (REA)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $273.00

• Retail Food Group (RFG)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.00 from $4.00

• Ridley Corporation (RIC)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.75

• Rio Tinto (RIO)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $134.00

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $120.00

• Resimac Group (RMC)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.100 from $1.300

• Seek (SEK)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $24.00

• Stockland (SGP)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.80

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.39 from $5.15

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.50

• Sonic Healthcare (SHL)

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $32.00

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $29.50

• Servcorp (SRV)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.30 from $5.50

• Service Stream (SSM)

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.750

• SSR Mining (SSR)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $18.25 from $18.15

• Santos (STO)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.90

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.95 from $9.10

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.77

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.20 from $8.40

• Super Retail Group (SUL)

  • Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $16.49

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $16.00

• Southern Cross Gold (SX2)

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.50

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.69

• Southern Cross Electrical Engineering (SXE)

  • Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $2.00 from $1.95

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.30 from $2.25

  • Retained at buy at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $2.10

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.25

  • Retained at buy at Unified Capital Partners; Price Target: $2.53 from $2.48

• Transurban Group (TCL)

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $13.25

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $14.75

• The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $5.30 from $5.20

  • Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $5.70 from $5.80

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.40

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.05

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.80 from $5.70

• Telstra Group (TLS)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.40

• Universal Store (UNI)

  • Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $9.03

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $7.00

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.00

• Vicinity Centres (VCX)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.40 from $2.20

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $2.55 from $2.45

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.11 from $2.00

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.35

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $2.27 from $2.24

• Ventia Services Group (VNT)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.26

• Wesfarmers (WES)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $76.00

• Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $8.30

Scans