Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slides on broad-based falls, finishes at week's low as Santa rally fades

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 54.0 points lower, down 0.64%.

It was a dour end to a week of missed opportunities for the Australian share market. Tuesday's fresh record high feels like a distant memory today as only one major ASX sector finished in the black, and two stocks fell for each stock that scraped a gain.

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on Iron Ore, Aluminum, and Zinc in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 54.0 points lower at 8,420.9, 0.64% from its session high and just 0.02% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a dismal 81 to 203.

For the week, the XJO finished down 15.3 points or 0.18% lower, 1.11% from its intraweek high and just 0.02% from its intraweek low.

Only one major ASX sector managed to close in the black today in what was a dour end to a week of missed opportunities. On Tuesday we closed at a fresh record high, as we finally appeared to be shaking off some of the uncertainty of the last few weeks, and appeared to fully embrace the Santa Claus rally.

By today, after two out of three subsequent down sessions, we’ve ended the week on a low note. There were two stocks falling for each stock that scraped a gain.

There weren’t too many themes at play today sector-wise, just a general malaise as investors squared up positions ahead of the weekend, and potentially also ahead of significantly quieter trading volumes over the next 8 weeks or so.

For what it’s worth, Utilities (XUJ) (+0.39%) was that ‘sole riser’. It hardly shot the lights out, though, likely rising on a modest pullback in risk-free market yields. Having said that, it wasn’t like the other yield-sensitives did all that much.

Losers, well one would not be surprised to see the Energy (XEJ) (-1.2%) sector once again at the bottom of the pile. It's been terrible this year and as for today, key energy commodities are trading lower overnight and into Asian trade.

The high flying Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-0.94%) pulled back, as did yesterday’s hero, the Gold (XGD) (-0.93%) sub-index.

The rest was a much of a muchness. Best and worst performers tables below, and some colour, where there was some, in the Interesting Moves & Broker Moves sections further down...

Today's best performing ASX stocks

Today's worst performing ASX stocks

ChartWatch

Iron Ore 62% (Front month, back-adjusted) SGX

Is that the hold of the long term trend ribbon we've been waiting for?

The last time we covered iron ore was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 29 November.

In that update, I noted the first early signs that iron ore’s seasonal rally (December is typically the best month of the year for the iron ore price) may be beginning.

It has since progressed gradually to the 105.40 point of supply. Candles at 105.40 indicate only modest but still pesky excess supply.

More important than touching 105.40 is the fact that the iron ore price has managed to close above the dynamic supply of the long term trend ribbon.

If we begin to see demand-side candles that show the long term trend ribbon is acting as an area of dynamic demand, it would set that ribbon as a base for a continued probe of overhead points of supply.

Keep watching here for demand-side candles, i.e., those with white bodies and or downward pointing shadows. Today’s candle, still live, is showing a nice downward pointing shadow. It also tipped the dynamic demand of the short term trend. There’s latent demand lurking in the system.

If today’s candle can close near its session high, it will serve as an important first step towards confirming the broader environment of improving trends / dynamic demand, price action, and candles.

108.15 is the next key point of supply along, but 112.80-114.10 is the “big one”. I’d be 55-45 the seasonal upswing is underway on a close above 108.15, but more like 80-20 on a close above 114.10. That’s how important the latter barrier is.

Zinc - LME Official Cash & Aluminium - LME Official Cash

Perhaps this time?

The last time we covered Zinc and Aluminium was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 25 October.

In that update, we were tracking some very positive weekly charts on what were/still are the two most prospective base metals. Shortly after that update, the Trump + Red Sweep US election result kyboshed most metals on China tariff fears.

Unlike copper, nickel, gold, and other metals, Aluminium and Zinc appear to be once again on the verge of a potential breakout.

Both Zinc (above) and Aluminium (below) show building short and long term weekly uptrends. Importantly, both show the dynamic demand at the short term uptrend ribbon has held steady. Candles since that hold have been credibly demand-side (white-bodied and or downward pointing shadows).

Aluminium is outperforming most other base metals

For Aluminium, I’m watching for a close above the 2695 point of supply to potentially accelerate the prevailing uptrends. For zinc, I consider the rally out of the short term ribbon as more decisive, more indicative of demand-side control. Therefore I’m happy to take a positive view right now, and ahead of a potential close above the 3238 point of supply.

For both, I’m happy to stay broadly positive until a close below their respective short term uptrend ribbons.

These are interesting charts within the context of the broader base metals complex (as I said, the others still look pretty lousy), but also considering the global growth outlook for 2025 and how a tariff war may impact this.

There are plenty of unknowns and moving parts in the fundamentals, but the technicals are showing distinct and building strength. Certainly, it's worth watching this space closely.

ASX Stocks positively exposed to a rising zinc price: South32 (ASX: S32), Sandfire Resources (ASX: SFR), Develop Global (ASX: DVP), Terramin Australia (ASX: TZN), Adriatic Metals (ASX: ADT) and coincidentally several of the other ASX silver stocks I covered in Top 12 ASX Silver Stocks: Explorers, Developers, and Producers article.

ASX Stocks positively exposed to a rising Aluminium price / aluminium supply chain: Alcoa Corporation (ASX: AAI), Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO), Metro Mining (ASX: MMI), and Canyon Resources (ASX: CAY).

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Saturday

• 00:30 USA Non-Farm Employment Change November (+202,000 forecast vs +12,000 in October)

• 00:30 USA Average hourly earnings November (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.4% m/m in October)

• 00:30 USA Employment Rate November (4.2% forecast vs 4.1% in October)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +9.3% Lotus Resources (LOT) - Letlhakane Increases Indicated Mineral Resources by 65% and Results of Extraordinary General Meeting

• +7.6% Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend, bouncing off long term uptrend ribbon 🔎📈

• +7.0% Tuas (TUA) - AGM Presentation and Chairman's Address, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +5.8% Dropsuite (DSE) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +5.3% Kogan.Com (KGN) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up, made Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans this morning! 🔎📈

• +5.1% Generation Development Group (GDG) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -10.0% Iluka Resources (ILU) - Eneabba Rare Earths Refinery Update and Eneabba Rare Earths Refinery Update Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured charts this year in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉

• -8.6% Magellan Financial Group (MFG) - No news, pullback after strong rally

• -7.4% Zip Co. (ZIP) - Appointment of Company Secretary, closed below short term uptrend ribbon

• -6.5% WA1 Resources (WA1) - No news, closed below long term uptrend ribbon

• -5.4% Pointsbet (PBH) - No news, pullback after strong rally

• -5.0% Frontier Digital Ventures (FDV) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -4.9% The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉

• -4.5% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - No news, pullback after strong rally

• -4.0% Chalice Mining (CHN) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉

• -3.8% Liontown Resources (LTR) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉

• -3.6% Droneshield (DRO) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉

Broker Notes

• 29METALS (29M)

  • Downgraded to sell from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $0.25 from $0.45.

• Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $75.00.

• ASX (ASX)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $66.70 from $62.30.

• AUB Group (AUB)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $34.20.

• Boss Energy (BOE)

  • Initiated at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.40.

• Camplify (CHL)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.83 from $2.02.

• Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

  • Downgraded to underperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $29.50 from $32.20.

• Endeavour Group (EDV)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.89.

• Light & Wonder (LNW)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $180.00.

• Micro-X (MX1)

  • Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.19.

• Perpetual (PPT)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $24.76.

• Rio Tinto (RIO)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $123.00.

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $131.00.

• Steadfast Group (SDF)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.80.

• Service Stream (SSM)

  • Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.70 from $1.67.

• The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.60.

• Ventia Services Group (VNT)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.66 from $4.53.

• Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $23.00.

Scans