Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall at open, markets watch US jobs data, Bitcoin cracks $100,000

ASX 200 futures trading up 6 points, or (+0.07%), to 8,203, as of 8:30AM

Much of the geopolitical commotion has started to settle and traders are now turning their eyes to the US jobs report which will be released tomorrow at 12:30am AEDT. This jobs report is important given there is currently a 72% chance (according to traders at least) that the Fed will cut rates next week. If the jobs report ends up being stronger than what markets expect, that percentage may come down significantly. Meanwhile, yesterday afternoon, Bitcoin cracked the $100,000 level after Paul Atkins, a crypto-friendly official, was nominated to lead the SEC. Can it keep going?

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

The market gives back a lot of its own intra-day gains and closes at a small loss. (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• US equities were lower overall in uneventful Thursday trading as stocks ended just off worst levels. S&P 500 posted just the second loss in the last 13 sessions.

• Treasuries mixed with some curve flattening.

• US Dollar index down 0.6%.

• Gold ended down 1.0%.

• Bitcoin futures down 0.2%, back below $100K after earlier rising above $105K.

• WTI crude settled down 0.4% as market processed today's OPEC+ headlines.

STOCKS

• US executives have turned meaningfully more optimistic about economy and business prospects following Trump win (Bloomberg)

• Bank investors and advisers gearing up for new wave of consolidation among smaller lenders with second Trump term (FT)

• Airbus cuts 2,000 Defence and Space jobs, taming earlier plans (Reuters)

• Federal judge rejects Boeing's plea deal on a criminal fraud charge related to 737 Max crashes (CNBC)

• FDA approves AstraZeneca's Imfinzi for limited-stage small cell lung cancer (Reuters)

• OpenAI adding a $200/mo price tier for ChatGPT involving expanded access to reasoning model (Bloomberg)

• Shell slows offshore wind spending, splits power business in CEO review (Reuters)

GEOPOLITICS

• Trump, RFK Jr. meet with several pharma CEOs at Mar-a-Lago (Axios)

• Dozens of Democratic lawmakers pushing Biden to forgive student-loan debt before leaving office (CNBC)

• France's Le Pen says she is willing to support a budget if deficits are narrowed more gradually (Bloomberg); French President Macron repeats he will serve out term until 2027 (Bloomberg)

ECONOMY

• German factory orders decline less than expected, hinting at manufacturing recovery (Bloomberg)

• Germany's IW Institute sees country in severe structural crisis (Reuters)

• UK businesses see challenging 2025 with slow growth and trade barriers (Reuters)

• Australia's trade balance surges amid rising commodity exports and China stimulus (Investing)

BROKER MOVES

• SG Fleet Group downgraded to hold from buy at Canaccord Genuity, price target of $3.50 (implying 2% upside)

• SG Fleet Group downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley, price target of $3.50 (implying 2% upside)

• humm group initiated buy at Ord Minnett, price target of $0.90 (implying 34% upside)

• Domino's Pizza Enterprises downgraded to underperform from neutral at Macquarie, price target of $29.50 (implying 11% downside)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 6 Dec: Indiana Resources (IDA) – 45.45%

• Tue 10 Dec: Premier Investments (PMV) - 1.98%

• Wed 11 Dec: WCM Global Growth Limited (WCG) - 1.09%

• Fri 13 Dec: Metcash (MTS) - 2.54%

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• Tonight: US and Canadian jobs reports

• 2am Saturday: US consumer sentiment and inflation expectations