Evening Wrap: ASX 200 sneaks gain to close dour week, Wisetech resurgence bolsters tech, Newmont collapse drags on gold

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 5.0 points higher, up 0.06%.

It wasn't the most convincing or the most polished performance by Australian stocks today, but it is Friday, and we did sneak out with a gain.

Talking about "not convincing or polished", that was pretty much this week's performance in general. There's quite a bit on fund managers' plates at the moment, and its causing them to sit on the sidelines and contemplate what's on those plates.

Whilst they're doing that, be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on Aluminium and Zinc in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 5.0 points higher at 8,211.3, 0.45% from its session high and just 0.06% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers and decliners were nearly even at 137 to 138.

For the week, the XJO finished down 71.9 points or 0.87% lower, 1.77% from its intraweek high and disturbingly just 0.34% from its intraweek low.

The Information Technology (XIJ) (+3.3%) sector was the best performing ASX sector today as the double-edged sword that is the XIJ’s largest stock by market capitalisation, Wisetech Global (ASX: WTC) (+12.7%)¸ spiked today on news released after the market Thursday that founder Richard White would “transition” from CEO to most honoured and trusted strategic adviser for the next 10 years (with an option of another 5).

Whatever you think of White and the saga that he’s shoved on the company this week, the big brokers saw fit to upgrade WTC’s stock today. Four ratings upgrades in total (see Broker Moves section below), and the other two who released reports on the stock today chose to maintain overweight ratings. Price targets were generally sharply cut, however.

Health Care (XHJ) (+0.53%) also did well today (Resmed (ASX: RMD) (+5.9%) powering ahead after a strong third quarter report), but it was a distant second to the XIJ. Financials (XFJ) (+0.20%) also managed to continue its winning ways this week.

Today’s best performing stocks from today’s best performing ASX sectors

It fell away quickly from there with most sectors (and most stocks really) doing not a great deal of anything on a Friday. On a Friday before some big upcoming risk events, mind you. On a Friday before some big upcoming risk events after market yields spiked this week, mind you. That’s a lot for the fund managers to deal with on a Friday (mind you!).

Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+-%) was by far and away the worst sector today as the supermarkets continued their slide – all three of the majors were lower, with Metcash (ASX: MTS) (-3.3%) hit the hardest after it released a disappointing trading update.

Gold (XGD) (-0.13%) also took a breather, but that was mainly due to another massive drop in Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) (-13.6%) – again, a third quarter update was to blame here…

Today’s best performing stocks from today’s best performing ASX sectors

ChartWatch

Aluminium - LME Official Cash

Turning the corner (click here for full size image)

For tonight’s ChartWatch, I thought I’d take a slightly longer term look than usual at a couple of base metals charts that I’ve noticed have been improving gradually but steadily over the past few weeks – interestingly, neither is supposed “next big thing” copper!

Weekly charts here for Aluminium, and Zinc below. Nothing changes in terms of our analysis:

1. Trends: Short term & Long term = what are the ribbons telling us?

2. Price action: Rising peaks and rising troughs = Demand reinforcement and supply removal vs Falling peaks and falling troughs = Supply reinforcement and demand removal.

3. Candles: Demand-side candles = White bodies and or downward pointing shadows vs Supply-side candles = Black bodies and or upward pointing shadows.

4. Interaction with key points of demand and supply: Both static and dynamic (i.e., trend ribbons).

The difference between daily and weekly charts is merely the timeframes we expect moves to play out over. There are 5 trading sessions in a week, so the only difference between daily and weekly charts is the latter will take 5 times longer to play out than the former. It really is that simple.

Let’s check the boxes for Alumium:

• Trends: ST/LT = ⬆️/⬆️ (although the LT trend is very flat)

• Price action: Rising peaks & rising troughs 📈

• Candles: Since 2161 major point of demand = Predominantly demand-side

• PODs/POSs: Trend ribbons appear to be acting as dynamic demand✅; Last trough at or above second from last peak ✅

On the last point, clearly 2695 is the most relevant point of supply. A close above it should pave the way for an extension of the short and long term trend with the next likely point of supply at 2963.

Demand is at the last trough low at 2522, and then at the short and long term uptrend ribbons. The short term uptrend is intact as the aluminium price does not close below the short term uptrend ribbon.

ASX Stocks positively exposed to a rising aluminium price: Alcoa Corporation (ASX: AAI), South32 (ASX: S32), Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO).

Zinc - LME Official Cash

Turned the corner (click here for full size image)

If aluminium is turning the corner on its weekly chart, then I put to you that zinc has turned the corner it its weekly chart. To be sure, let’s do the trusty checklist (hey, maybe you should use my checklist to do a quick TA check-up on your entire portfolio this weekend! 🧐)

• Trends: ST/LT = ⬆️/⬆️ (again, the LT trend is very new and very flat, but I suggest the short term uptrend is steeper and better established here)

• Price action: Rising peaks & rising troughs 📈

• Candles: Since 2516 major point of demand = Predominantly demand-side (some very nice long white candles in there)

• PODs/POSs: Zinc has closed above April (3093) and 7 Oct (3154) points of supply (note that aluminium is still below 2695); Trend ribbons appear to be acting as dynamic demand✅; Last trough at or above second from last peak ✅

This is shaping as a strong turnaround setup for me. I like the price action and candles, I like the fact that disaster withstanding vis a vis tonight’s candle close, we’re above each of this year’s static points of supply.

3509 is the most relevant point of supply. A close above it should pave the way for an extension of the short and long term trend with the next likely point of supply at 3877.

Demand is at the last trough low at 2998, and then at the short and long term uptrend ribbons. The short term uptrend is intact as the zinc price does not close below the short term uptrend ribbon.

ASX Stocks positively exposed to a rising zinc price: South32 (ASX: S32), Sandfire Resources (ASX: SFR), Develop Global (ASX: DVP), Terramin Australia (ASX: TZN), Adriatic Metals (ASX: ADT) and coincidentally several of the other ASX silver stocks I covered in yesterday’s Top 12 ASX Silver Stocks: Explorers, Developers, and Producers article.

In the quick Google I did to get this list – which should not be considered exhaustive – it is quite clear just how hard it is to figure out exactly which ASX stocks have zinc exposure. Leave it with me, I’ll do a deep dive in an article next week. If you know of any you think I should investigate, hit me up on this post on my Twitter/X.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Friday

• 23:30 USA Core Durable Goods Orders September (-0.1% m/m forecast vs +0.5% m/m in August)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +18.4% Syrah Resources (SYR) - No official news reported by the company, but I note this Club of Mozambique article published after ASX market close yesterday that states: "On Tuesday 22-10) Council of Ministers (Cabinet) assessed and approved the decree approving the terms of the direct agreement between the government of the Republic of Mozambique, as grantor, and Twigg Exploration & Mining Limitada, a wholly owned subsidiary of Syrah Resources, as concessionaire of the Balama Mine Project"

• +17.3% WA1 Resources (WA1) - September 2024 Quarterly Activities and Cash Flow Report

• +16.1% Galan Lithium (GLN) - Secondary Trading Notice (placement to sophisticated, professional and institutional investors)

• +12.7% Wisetech Global (WTC) - As we reported yesterday, Key Business Update

• +12.5% HMC Capital (HMC) - Successful Completion of $300 Million Placement, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists regular 🔎📈

• +11.4% DGL Group (DGL) - No news, second big gain on large volume in a row, closed within long term downtrend ribbon 🤔

• +9.4% Metals X (MLX) - Unsolicited Approach to Greentech

• +7.3% Insignia Financial (IFL) - Positive response to yesterday's Insignia Financial 1Q25 Quarterly Business Update, upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS (see Broker Moves section below), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists regular 🔎📈

• +6.9% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) - No news

• +6.6% Liontown Resources (LTR) - No news, generally stronger day for ASX lithium stocks, lithium futures slightly higher in China, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend

• +5.9% Resmed Inc (RMD) - ResMed Announces Results for the First Quarter of FY2025

• +5.1% Northern Star Resources (NST) - Positive response to yesterday's September 2024 Quarterly Activities Report, several price target increases from the brokers today in response (see Broker Moves section below), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists regular 🔎📈

• +5.0% Whitehaven Coal (WHC) - September 2024 Quarterly Report

• +4.9% Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI) - Annual General Meeting Presentation and Managing Director's Address

• +4.2% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) - No news, ditto strong ASX lithium's today

• +4.1% Adriatic Metals (ADT) - Permits Granted for the Veovaca Tailing Storage Facility, plus rising zinc price (see ChartWatch section above)

• +3.5% IGO (IGO) - No news, ditto strong ASX lithium's today

Trading lower

• -13.6% Newmont Corporation (NEM) - Quarterly Report - period ended 30 Sept 2024

• -5.0% Mineral Resources (MIN) - Ceasing to be a substantial holder and ongoing fallout from Monday's Statement in response to recent media reports

• -4.7% Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC) - Continued negative response to yesterday's Investor presentation

• -4.7% Qoria (QOR) - Sale of shares - Managing Director

• -4.3% Super Retail Group (SUL) - Continued negative response to yesterday's Trading Update, downgraded to hold from buy at Canaccord Genuity plus several other price target cuts among the brokers (see Broker Moves section below), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a ChartWatch Daily Scans downtrends lists regular 🔎📈

• -3.3% Metcash (MTS) - Trading Update and Estimated Earnings for 1H25 and Ceasing to be a substantial holder, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a ChartWatch Daily Scans downtrends lists regular 🔎📈

Broker Notes

• 29METALS (29M)

  • Downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.45 from $0.55

• The A2 Milk Company (A2M)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.04

• Adairs (ADH)

  • Upgraded to overweight from neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $2.54 from $2.04

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $2.75 from $2.20

• Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $68.00 from $41.15

• ANZ Group (ANZ)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $26.11 from $25.95

• Antipa Minerals (AZY)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.04

• Bapcor (BAP)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.17

• Biome Australia (BIO)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.85

• Boss Energy (BOE)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $3.65

• Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.00

• Breville Group (BRG)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $36.51

• Brambles (BXB)

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $18.60

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $20.00

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $18.00 from $17.95

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $20.60

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $19.10

• Chrysos Corporation (C79)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.50 from $5.70

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.09

• Car Group (CAR)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $39.50

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

  • Retained at reduce at Morgans; Price Target: $96.81 from $96.13

• CSL (CSL)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $340.00

• Corporate Travel Management (CTD)

  • Initiated at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $14.40

• Dexus (DXS)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.30

• Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

  • Initiated at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $16.65

• Fortescue (FMG)

  • Downgraded to sell from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $17.04 from $17.58

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $19.40

  • Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $19.75 from $19.25

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $14.50 from $14.25

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $17.55

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $20.50

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $21.00

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $17.60 from $17.80

• HMC Capital (HMC)

  • Upgraded to hold from underperform at CLSA; Price Target: $8.73 from $6.92

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.10 from $8.80

• Insignia Financial (IFL)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.15 from $2.70

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.21

  • Upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; Price Target: $3.10 from $2.30

• Karoon Energy (KAR)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.20

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.15

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.99

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $2.50

• Liberty Financial Group (LFG)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.15

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.00 from $4.10

• Light & Wonder (LNW)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $169.00

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $38.00 from $47.00

• Metcash (MTS)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.00

• Monash IVF Group (MVF)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.50

• National Australia Bank (NAB)

  • Retained at reduce at Morgans; Price Target: $31.61 from $31.48

• Northern Star Resources (NST)

  • Downgraded to hold from outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $17.70 from $16.25

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $16.60 from $16.30

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $18.25 from $17.00

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $20.00 from $19.00

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $14.35

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $16.50 from $16.20

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $18.50 from $17.00

• Reece (REH)

  • Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $24.10 from $22.85

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $18.00

  • Retained at reduce at Morgans; Price Target: $19.95 from $21.00

  • Retained at lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $23.20 from $23.50

• Ramsay Health Care (RHC)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $42.40

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $45.10

• Regis Resources (RRL)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.65 from $2.55

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.90 from $2.20

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.05 from $1.95

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.00 from $2.90

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.45 from $2.05

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.20 from $2.70

• Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)

  • Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $5.65 from $5.60

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.50 from $6.40

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.80 from $5.70

• St Barbara (SBM)

  • Initiated at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $1.20

• Strike Energy (STX)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.22 from $0.23

• Super Retail Group (SUL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $19.00 from $20.00

  • Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $16.61 from $16.92

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $16.60 from $17.30

  • Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $16.50 from $18.00

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.50 from $17.80

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $15.75

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $16.50 from $17.00

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $16.00 from $18.00

• Vulcan Steel (VSL)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $6.85 from $6.70

• Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $27.04 from $27.05

• Wisetech Global (WTC)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $123.75 from $138.00

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $124.50 from $132.50

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $138.00

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $123.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $120.00 from $135.00

  • Upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $125.00 from $115.00

Scans