The S&P/ASX 200 closed 8.1 points lower, down 0.10%.
Sector rotation. End of month repositioning. That sort of stuff...
That's how you'd describe a day's trade on the ASX that follows a non-trading day in the USA overnight, and that occurred at the end of the month.
Still, whist the headline result shows only an 8.1 point loss, there was plenty going on under the surface – particularly in gold and iron ore stocks.
Plus, with November now behind us, it sets up the tantalising prospect of the start of the Santa Claus rally! Ho ho ho ho! π
Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.
Also, I have detailed technical analysis on Iron Ore and Copper in today's ChartWatch.
Let's dive in!
Fri 29 Nov 24, 4:57pm (AEDT)
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The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 8.1 points lower at 8,436.2, 0.55% from its session low and just 0.10% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers pipped decliners by a narrow 144 to 129. For the week, the XJO finished up 42.4 points or 0.51% higher, 1.0% from its intraweek low and 0.48% from its intraweek high.
It was the kind of quiet you’d expect from the Aussie market following a non-trading day in the USA overnight (Thanksgiving), and ahead of likely very subdued trading in an abbreviated trading session tonight.
The gold price has rallied modestly. Gold stocks rallied modestly in today’s trade. This helped the Gold (XGD) (+1.06%) sub-index took out the honour of best performing sector today.
The iron ore price has rallied modestly. Iron ore stocks rallied modestly in today’s trade, helping the Resources (XJR) (+0.84%) to the honour of second-best performing sector today.
Apart from those two obvious ones, the rest of the pack was rather mixed. Information Technology (XIJ) (+0.48%) made it five wins from five sessions this week. I suggest it's a case of the big fund managers riding their winners.
Energy (XEJ) (+0.09%) didn’t fall for once, in a week in which the sector lost over 3% of its value, making it the worst weekly sector performer (it’s also the worst sector performer over the last 12-months).
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Qoria (QOR) | $0.485 | +$0.025 | +5.4% | +16.9% | +115.6% |
Gentrack Group (GTK) | $13.01 | +$0.61 | +4.9% | +42.0% | +148.3% |
Resolute Mining (RSG) | $0.435 | +$0.02 | +4.8% | -48.2% | +13.0% |
Catapult Group International (CAT) | $3.68 | +$0.14 | +4.0% | +40.5% | +189.8% |
Megaport (MP1) | $7.89 | +$0.28 | +3.7% | +12.7% | -17.9% |
Ora Banda Mining (OBM) | $0.725 | +$0.025 | +3.6% | -22.5% | +271.8% |
Appen (APX) | $2.38 | +$0.08 | +3.5% | +18.4% | +287.0% |
Weebit Nano (WBT) | $2.76 | +$0.08 | +3.0% | +36.0% | -23.5% |
Life360 (360) | $25.30 | +$0.63 | +2.6% | +15.2% | +236.0% |
Nextdc (NXT) | $16.27 | +$0.39 | +2.5% | -0.9% | +27.4% |
Nuix (NXL) | $6.70 | +$0.15 | +2.3% | -13.4% | +290.7% |
Chalice Mining (CHN) | $1.365 | +$0.025 | +1.9% | -24.8% | -7.1% |
Iperionx (IPX) | $4.42 | +$0.08 | +1.8% | +33.9% | +212.4% |
Develop Global (DVP) | $1.965 | +$0.035 | +1.8% | -24.1% | -34.3% |
Wisetech Global (WTC) | $128.10 | +$2.25 | +1.8% | +8.3% | +98.0% |
De Grey Mining (DEG) | $1.520 | +$0.025 | +1.7% | -0.3% | +20.0% |
Evolution Mining (EVN) | $5.06 | +$0.08 | +1.6% | -3.4% | +34.9% |
Champion Iron (CIA) | $5.73 | +$0.09 | +1.6% | -2.2% | -25.6% |
Imdex (IMD) | $2.56 | +$0.04 | +1.6% | -1.5% | +51.0% |
Fortescue (FMG) | $18.99 | +$0.29 | +1.6% | -0.9% | -23.7% |
Newmont Corporation (NEM) | $65.09 | +$0.95 | +1.5% | -8.3% | +13.6% |
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) | $6.88 | +$0.1 | +1.5% | -9.5% | +4.2% |
WA1 Resources (WA1) | $16.03 | +$0.22 | +1.4% | +18.6% | +88.4% |
BHP Group (BHP) | $40.57 | +$0.5 | +1.2% | -4.9% | -12.6% |
Karoon Energy (KAR) | $1.330 | +$0.015 | +1.1% | -4.3% | -36.1% |
The rest of the major ASX sectors were down today, but no sector fell more than Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (-0.81%). Nothing specific there, nor were there any clear macro-or-stock-specific reasons for modest declines in Industrials (XNJ) (-0.56%), Communication Services (XTJ) (-0.51%), Health Care (XHJ) (-0.41%), or Financials (XFJ) (-0.32%).
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Auckland International Airport (AIA) | $7.02 | -$0.24 | -3.3% | +6.2% | -4.4% |
Mirvac Group (MGR) | $2.16 | -$0.04 | -1.8% | +0.9% | +9.6% |
Vicinity Centres (VCX) | $2.16 | -$0.04 | -1.8% | -0.9% | +20.3% |
Chorus (CNU) | $8.12 | -$0.14 | -1.7% | +1.0% | +15.7% |
HMC Capital (HMC) | $12.33 | -$0.21 | -1.7% | +21.2% | +160.7% |
ALS (ALQ) | $15.58 | -$0.25 | -1.6% | +10.5% | +29.5% |
Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ) | $7.81 | -$0.11 | -1.4% | +0.5% | -7.6% |
Transurban Group (TCL) | $12.80 | -$0.18 | -1.4% | +0.7% | +0.3% |
Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) | $12.47 | -$0.16 | -1.3% | +1.0% | -15.5% |
Atlas Arteria (ALX) | $4.80 | -$0.06 | -1.2% | -1.6% | -15.6% |
Credit Corp Group (CCP) | $17.75 | -$0.22 | -1.2% | +2.2% | +39.7% |
National Storage Reit (NSR) | $2.50 | -$0.03 | -1.2% | -0.4% | +17.4% |
Car Group (CAR) | $41.50 | -$0.49 | -1.2% | +9.8% | +52.5% |
Cochlear (COH) | $304.24 | -$3.43 | -1.1% | +7.4% | +16.5% |
National Australia Bank (NAB) | $39.10 | -$0.43 | -1.1% | +0.8% | +37.9% |
Ventia Services Group (VNT) | $4.55 | -$0.05 | -1.1% | -0.9% | +57.4% |
Scentre Group (SCG) | $3.68 | -$0.04 | -1.1% | +4.8% | +43.2% |
Healius (HLS) | $1.380 | -$0.015 | -1.1% | -16.6% | -2.5% |
ANZ Group (ANZ) | $31.17 | -$0.33 | -1.0% | +0.1% | +28.0% |
CSL (CSL) | $282.22 | -$2.96 | -1.0% | -1.6% | +9.9% |
Sector rotation. End of month repositioning. That sort of stuff...
It wasn’t a terrible day, though, despite the headline loss on the benchmark. Looking at the intraday chart above, you can see that the demand-side bought into the early dip – and kept buying throughout the day. That means a downward pointing shadow on today’s XJO candle – and that's very much healthy bull market kind of stuff.
December is going to be an interesting one, and it is set up tantalisingly for the fabled Santa Claus rally. I have detailed seasonal analysis on what to expect in this regard here.
The last time we covered iron ore was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 20 November.
In that update, I said: “The path of least resistance remains down here, albeit at a slow grind. There remains no sign whatsoever of the seasonal rally that really should be beginning as you finish reading this sentence.”
Since you finished reading that sentence (not that one, the one in the last update!), the seasonal iron ore rally of 2024 may well have begun. Maybe. It’s still a little uninspiring, having only inched its way up to the 105.40 point of supply.
There is some good stuff going on in the chart above, however. Today’s still-live candle threatens to close above the dynamic supply we’d ordinarily expect at the long term downtrend ribbon (potentially about to neutralise). That would be a tick β .
Candles more generally since the 95 trough low have been predominantly demand-side with a sprinkling of decent white bodies and downward pointing shadows. They’re modest in stature, but at least they’re demonstrative of increasingly consistent demand-side control.
Looking forward, the interaction with 105.40 will be interesting. If there is a pullback from there, it would want to be shallow and end in setting a higher trough to 95 somewhere in that long term trend ribbon – thus pegging it as an area of excess demand.
Next, we’d want to see a progression of demand-side candles followed by rising peaks and rising troughs into the 108.15 point of supply, but preferably into 114.10.
I propose that if the iron ore price can clear that barrier, then the 2024 seasonal rally has indeed begun.
In conclusion, the technicals are at best indicating equilibrium here, but at the very least are indicating signs of life for the seasonal rally that haven’t been evident up to this point.
For completeness, I should note that a close below 95 would put to bed any hopes of the seasonal rally occurring this year, and likely set iron ore up for a probe of the 87.55-88.35 zone of demand.
The last time we covered copper was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 20 November.
In that update, we were tracking a “less than inspiring rally” and were waiting for supply-side candles to reappear and indicate a resumption of the prevailing short term downtrend. They reappeared, but the supply-side has shown little impetus to move things along, with the 4.061-4.111 demand zone holding so far.
4.2485 is the nearest point of supply, roughly also coinciding with the dynamic supply of the short term downtrend ribbon. Above these sits the dynamic supply of the long term trend ribbon around 4.34-4.37.
To have any chance of achieving next big thing credibility again (remember how copper was supposed be 2024’s next big thing in commodities?), I suggest the copper price must close at least above the long term trend ribbon. It would want to do so on rising peaks and rising troughs (indicating supply removal and demand reinforcement), and plenty of demand-side candles (i.e., those with white bodies and or downward pointing shadows).
Alternatively, a close below 4.0615 would likely facilitate the testing of lower points of demand at 3.963, 3.8825.
In terms of probabilities, trends, price action, and candles, all point to the bearish scenario most likely playing out. Sideways, vibrating between 4.0615-4.2485, is the next most likely option. As for the bull case? I can’t see it happening any time soon – but anything is possible in markets!
Today
There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today
Friday
All Day USA Thanksgiving Public Holiday
Saturday
12:30 CHN Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing (Services) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) November (Manufacturing: 50.3 forecast vs 50.1 in October; Services: 50.2 forecast vs 50.2 in October)
+13.2% Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR) - No news since yesterday's Paradigm to Proceed with Phase 3 Knee OA Trial, but consistent with recent extreme volatility since 19 Nov 2024 Chairman Address and AGM Presentation
+9.0% Webjet (WJL) - No news since yesterday's Acknowledgement of ACCC legal proceedings, but consistent with recent extreme volatility since 25 Nov 1H25 Half-year results announcement
+7.6% Maas Group (MGH) - MGH Announces Successful Completion of Placement, bounced perfectly off the long term uptrend ribbon, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend ππ
+7.2% Novonix (NVX) - No news since 27 Nov Successful Completion of Institutional Placement, but consistent with recent extreme volatility since 25 Nov N
+5.9% Opthea (OPT) - Continued positive response to 26 Nov Opthea's Wet AMD Program to be Featured at FLORetina 2024, bounced perfectly off the long term uptrend ribbon, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend ππ
+5.4% Qoria (QOR) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrend, has been a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list ππ
+5.4% Droneshield (DRO) - Continued positive response to yesterday's DroneShield Makes Senior Australian Defence Appointments
+4.9% Gentrack Group (GTK) - Continued positive response to 26 Nov Market Announcement - Full Year Results, bounced perfectly off the long term uptrend ribbon, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrend, has been a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list ππ
+4.9% WEB Travel Group (WEB) - Continued positive response to 27 Nov Capital management initiatives and 1H25 Investor Presentation
+4.8% Resolute Mining (RSG) - Update on Mali Discussions and Second Settlement Payment, but also generally stronger ASX gold sector today on modest recovery in the gold price
+4.3% Adairs (ADH) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrend, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list ππ
+4.0% Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrend, one of the most regularly Featured stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list - just an amazingly strong chart! ππ
+4.0% Sigma Healthcare (SIG) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrend, one of the most regularly Featured stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list - just an amazingly strong chart! ππ
+4.0% Catapult Group International (CAT) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrend, one of the most regularly Featured stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list - just an amazingly strong chart! ππ
-5.6% Brainchip (BRN) - No news
-5.4% Select Harvests (SHV) - Appendix 4E and Annual Financial Report 2024 and FY2024 Investor Presentation, closed back below both short and long term trend ribbons ππ
-4.4% Humm Group (HUM) - Continued negative response to yesterday's Response to Price Query and AGM Presentation
-3.3% Auckland International Airport (AIA) - No news
-2.9% Carnarvon Energy (CVN) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend ππ
-2.7% Tabcorp (TAH) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend ππ
-2.1% Paladin Energy (PDN) - 2024 AGM Presentation and 2024 AGM Chairman's Address, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrend, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list ππ
-1.8% Boss Energy (BOE) - Change in substantial holding (reduction from JP Morgan), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrend, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list ππ
Avjennings (AVJ)
Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.67 from $0.45
Bravura Solutions (BVS)
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.70
Catapult Group International (CAT)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.00 from $3.30
Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $10.00
Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY)
Initiated at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $3.16
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation (FPH)
Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: NZ$33.50
Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $36.20 from $35.20
Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: NZ$38.50 from NZ$39
Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: NZ$36.00 from NZ$32.00
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: NZ$41.70 from NZ$41.80
Hub24 (HUB)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $56.70
Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $73.00 from $68.00
Insurance Australia Group (IAG)
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.50 from $7.20
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.55 from $7.10
Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $8.46 from $7.52
Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.90
Lunnon Metals (LM8)
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.60
Mineral Resources (MIN)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $33.00 from $35.00
Medibank Private (MPL)
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.00
Metcash (MTS)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.40
Myer (MYR)
Initiated at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.25
Mystate (MYS)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.74
NIB (NHF)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.50
Nuix (NXL)
Initiated at hold at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.94
Objective Corporation (OCL)
Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $17.80 from $14.00
Oneview Healthcare (ONE)
Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.40
Pro Medicus (PME)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $221.00
Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $225.00 from $139.00
Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $140.00
Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $26.70 from $21.25
Ramelius Resources (RMS)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.70 from $2.60
The Star Entertainment Group (SGR)
Downgraded to underweight from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.20 from $0.24
Supply Network (SNL)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $34.20 from $30.50
Strike Energy (STX)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.29
Suncorp Group (SUN)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $19.20
Southern Cross Gold (SXG)
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.69
Tower (TWR)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: NZ$1.50 from NZ$1.30
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