Evening Wrap: ASX 200 rebounds on resurgent gold sector, as tech and consumer stocks also post strong gains

Sometimes the trend really is your friend. It was today on the Australian stock market. Stocks from sectors that have done well all year did exactly that today. Coincidentally, stocks that have been shunned all year were similarly dealt with.

One sector that shone brighter than all the rest, however, was gold. It burst back to the forefront of investor attention following the release of a favourable research report from major broker Macquarie. Mac still likes gold as an investment in a post Trump-election-win world, and it still likes ASX gold stocks.

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on Bitcoin and Copper in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 12.3 points higher at , 0.15% from its session low and 0.23% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a modest 163 to 125.

Gold (XGD) (+3.6%) sub-index. Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.1%). Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+1.1%).

The three best performing sectors today have consistently been three of the best performing in 2024. Add in Financials (XFJ) (+0.40%) and Communication Services (XTJ) (+0.22%) and you’ve got the full set.

It was a day for sticking with winners, and shunning losers, those being Energy (XEJ) (-0.95%) and Resources (XJR) (-0.22%) – the two worst performing sectors in 2024.

Outside of the follow the trend thesis, Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (-1.3%) deserves a special mention for taking the dubious honour of worst performing sector today.

To be fair, it hasn’t been terrible this year, but it has suffered in the last couple of sessions on the back of a wobble in major constituent Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) (-2.0%). You’ll recall from yesterday’s Evening Wrap, there was a large, discounted block trade that went through due to a sell down by a major Chinese investment fund. It also didn’t help that key risk-free market yields crept back up a little after yesterday’s post-GDP plunge.

Around the traps, Gold was by far and away the best sector today as it basked in the warm afterglow of a favourable research report from major broker Macquarie. I’ll bring you the finer details of this report in a dedicated article tomorrow, but for now note that the broker remains bullish on gold despite the recent pullback, and enough so to upgrade the price targets for several ASX gold stocks.

I have more detail for you in Broker Moves below, as I do regarding all of the other major individual stock moves today in the Interesting Moves section.

Today's best performing stocks from the best performing ASX sectors

Today's worst performing stocks from the worst performing ASX sectors

ChartWatch

Bitcoin vs US Dollar

All I can say is: 🚀

The last time we covered Bitcoin was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 21 November, but we’ve been tracking it since its bullish breakout identified in the Evening Wrap on 6 November.

It did it! 100k 🥳

If you have some Bitcoin, then like me, you’re probably suitably chuffed. Despite my holding being sorely insufficient to acquire me the fabled Lambo, it is comforting to know that I wasn’t a Bitcoin bystander on this momentous day.

To be fair, the day was "momentous" in so far as much as a particular digital currency traded at a particular price level.

But, as a technical analyst, the recent moves in Bitcoin validates my “don’t stress too much about what you’re trading – just follow the darned trend” philosophy. It's my belief (your is yours!) that one doesn't have to understand something so much, nor even believe in it, to potentially make money out of it. I try to keep it as simple as:

• Uptrends = Look for buying opportunities 🔎📈

• Downtrends = look for selling or short selling opportunities 🔎📉

• No trend = look elsewhere for uptrends or downtrends 🙈

I hope that you too got on board the 100k Bitcoin train, but if you didn’t, not to worry – there are always plenty of fantastic trends around to follow!

Ok, I probably should do some technical analysis now! 🧐

First point – that last candle (i.e., the one that cracked 100k) is still live – this means I discount it. It doesn’t exist as far as I’m concerned.

So, based upon the prior bar, everything still indicates strong demand-side control here. Trends, price action, and candles are all consistent with this thesis.

90767-93626 is demand. The short term uptrend ribbon is also lurking around there – it too should offer (dynamic) demand.

I propose a close below the short term uptrend ribbon kills the short term trend. If this were to occur, the next major zone of demand isn’t until the last major breakout zone (i.e., that very prophetic 6 Nov update) at 73757.

Supply? Well, it’s all blue sky from here so there really isn’t any. You just have to count off the round numbers, the first of which is 100k itself.

Remember, discounting last candle here – so we could find that excess supply does eventually appear here and cause a long upward pointing shadow around 100k in the current candle.

If this were to occur, it would suggest that it might take more time to really crack this key psychological level.

As always, track the candles as they appear. White bodies and or downward pointing shadows = Fingerprints of demand-side control vs black bodies and or upward pointing shadows = Fingerprints of supply-side control.

High Grade Copper Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Signs of life, but more required...

The last time we covered high grade copper was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 29 November.

In that update, I proposed the most likely scenario for copper was the bearish one, followed by next-most-likely sideways.

Looking at the chart above, I don’t think I need to change that view too much, although perhaps the “sideways” option is moving closer to 50-50.

The 4.0615-4.1115 demand zone appears to be holding for now, and the most recent trough has seen a decent demand-side showing in the form of the downward pointing shadow on 2 Dec and the modest white-bodied follow through on 3-Dec.

But it’s all a bit modest to get any more excited than that.

I will get more excited should the copper price close decisively above the 4.2485 point of supply, and more importantly, above the dynamic supply of the short term downtrend ribbon presently bounded by 4.2725.

If this occurs with a long white candle and high close, along with also confirming a return to risking peaks and rising troughs, it would likely set up a date with the long term trend ribbon (presently around 4.3425-4.3645).

Beyond that, and we’re getting ahead of ourselves here, potentially 4.5625-4.5685.

Alternatively, if the short term downtrend and the now rolling long term trend prevail, then 4.0615 will likely crack and we’ll see a probing of 3.9630 or even 3.8225.

We just have to see how this one plays out: Let the candles do the talking!

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Friday

• 00:30 USA Weekly Unemployment Claims (215,000 forecast vs 213,000 previous)

Saturday

• 00:30 USA Non-Farm Employment Change November (+202,000 forecast vs +12,000 in October)

• 00:30 USA Average hourly earnings November (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.4% m/m in October)

• 00:30 USA Employment Rate November (4.2% forecast vs 4.1% in October)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +10.6% Spartan Resources (SPR) - $220m Placement to Accelerate Dalgaranga Re-Start Activities and Equity Raise Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, bounced perfectly from long term uptrend ribbon, a ChartWatch ASX Scans regular this year but hasn't been in since October - will be back in tomorrow! 🔎📈

• +9.1% Genesis Minerals (GMD) - No news, positive comments from Macquarie regarding gold price and ASX gold sector might have helped, they retained GMD at OUTPERFORM and increased its price target to $3.00 from $2.70, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a ChartWatch ASX Scans regular this year but hasn't been in since October - will be back in tomorrow! 🔎📈

• +8.5% Ramelius Resources (RMS) - Ramelius' participation in Spartan Resources capital raising, plus Mac gold/gold sector report in which RMS was upgraded to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL and its price target increased to $2.60 from $2.50

• +8.1% Capricorn Metals (CMM) - No news, ditto stronger ASX gold sector, Mac retained OUTPERFORM rating on this one and increased its price target to $7.00 from $6.90, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a ChartWatch ASX Scans regular this year but hasn't been in since 1 Nov - will be back in tomorrow! 🔎📈

• +7.9% West African Resources (WAF) - No news, ditto stronger ASX gold sector, Mac retained OUTPERFORM rating on this one and increased its price target to $2.10 from $2.00

• +7.5% Bravura Solutions (BVS) - Continued positive response to yesterday's Upgraded guidance and dividend update, several large price target increases among the brokers (see Broker Moves section below), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +7.1% Kogan.Com (KGN) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +6.5% Perseus Mining (PRU) - Confidence Boosting Infill Drilling at Nyanzaga ProjectN, ditto stronger ASX gold sector, Mac retained OUTPERFORM rating on this one and increased its price target to $3.60 from $3.40, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend, a ChartWatch ASX Scans regular this year but hasn't been in since 1 Nov - will be back in tomorrow! 🔎📈

• +5.7% Westgold Resources (WGX) - No news, ditto stronger ASX gold sector, Mac retained OUTPERFORM rating on this one and increased its price target to $3.70 from $3.50, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +5.6% Block (SQ2) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +5.5% Regis Resources (RRL) - No news, ditto stronger ASX gold sector, Mac retained OUTPERFORM rating on this one and increased its price target to $3.10 from $3.00, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a ChartWatch ASX Scans regular this year but hasn't been in since October - will be back in tomorrow! 🔎📈

• +5.3% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - No news, tagged along with ASX gold sector love today, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend

• +5.2% Bellevue Gold (BGL) - No news, ditto stronger ASX gold sector, Mac retained OUTPERFORM rating on this one and increased its price target to $3.70 from $3.50

• +5.0% Iperionx (IPX) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +4.8% Tuas (TUA) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +4.6% Magellan Financial Group (MFG) - Funds Under Management - November 2024, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -22.5% 29METALS (29M) - Completion of Institutional Component of Equity Raising, Debt Refinancing & Equity Raising Investor Presentation and Gossan Valley Investment Decision, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -7.1% Imugene (IMU) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📈

• -6.5% Liontown Resources (LTR) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📈

• -6.0% Appen (APX) - No news, closed below short term uptrend ribbon

• -5.1% Mesoblast (MSB) - Material Announcement and FDA Grants Mesoblast RMAT Designation

• -4.4% Lotus Resources (LOT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📈

• -4.4% Lifestyle Communities (LIC) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📈

• -4.1% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📈

• -3.8% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📈

Broker Notes

• 29METALS (29M)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.35 from $0.75.

• AI-Media Technologies (AIM)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.00 from $0.70.

• Amotiv (AOV)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $13.64.

• Eagers Automotive (APE)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.50.

• ARB Corporation (ARB)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $43.80.

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $47.15.

• Autosports Group (ASG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.80.

• Bowen Coking Coal (BCB)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.04.

• Bellevue Gold (BGL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.90.

• Bannerman Energy (BMN)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $7.40.

• Boss Energy (BOE)

  • Initiated at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.40.

• Bravura Solutions (BVS)

  • Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $2.21 from $1.66.

  • Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $1.90 from $1.35.

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.05 from $1.32.

  • Retained at overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $2.06 from $1.47.

• Collins Foods (CKF)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $9.38 from $7.88.

• Capricorn Metals (CMM)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.00 from $6.90.

• Cosol (COS)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.20 from $1.10.

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.25 from $1.20.

• Droneshield (DRO)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.20.

• Evolution Mining (EVN)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.00 from $4.60.

• Fleetpartners Group (FPR)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.65.

• Global Lithium Resources (GL1)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.20.

• Genesis Minerals (GMD)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.00 from $2.70.

• Humm Group (HUM)

  • Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.90.

• Integral Diagnostics (IDX)

  • Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.87.

• Iluka Resources (ILU)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.10.

• Imricor Medical Systems (IMR)

  • Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.51 from $1.08.

• Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.30.

• Meteoric Resources (MEI)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.36.

• Meeka Metals (MEK)

  • Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.19.

• McMillan Shakespeare (MMS)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $20.78.

• Newmont Corporation (NEM)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $85.00 from $82.00.

• Perseus Mining (PRU)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.60 from $3.40.

• Rio Tinto (RIO)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $135.10 from $136.20.

  • Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $126.50.

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $119.00.

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $135.00.

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $120.00 from $123.00.

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $124.00.

• Ramelius Resources (RMS)

  • Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.60 from $2.50.

• Regis Resources (RRL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.10 from $3.00.

• Resolute Mining (RSG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.58 from $0.57.

• South32 (S32)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.90.

• St Barbara (SBM)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.53 from $0.49.

• Sheffield Resources (SFX)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.09 from $0.08.

• SG Fleet Group (SGF)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.50 from $3.55.

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.18.

  • Downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.50 from $3.60.

• Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.60.

• Serko (SKO)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.38 from $5.00.

• Syrah Resources (SYR)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.32.

• Talga Group (TLG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.60.

• Vault Minerals (VAU)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.54 from $0.50.

• West African Resources (WAF)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.00.

• Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $27.00.

• Westgold Resources (WGX)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.70 from $3.50.

• Worley (WOR)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $18.00.

• Wisetech Global (WTC)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $160.00.

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $144.00.

Scans