ChartWatch ASX Scans: Aristocrat Leisure, Bravura Solutions, Mesoblast, MTM Critical Metals, Pro Medicus, Qantas, Syntara, Worley
Wed 04 Dec 24, 9:00am (AEDT)
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Market Wraps
/Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dips on crumbling Aussie economic growth reading, miners, energy and tech still scrape gains
Market Wraps
Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dips on crumbling Aussie economic growth reading, miners, energy and tech still scrape gains
Wed 04 Dec 24, 5:49pm (AEDT)
Stocks in article
The S&P/ASX 200 closed 32.6 points lower, down 0.38%.
Tech stocks were winners today, despite the dip in the benchmark from yesterday's record high close. That's nearly a given in 2024 – they're just that good. But the other winners in today's trade have been big losers all year (Resources and Energy), and over the past few weeks (Gold).
All other major ASX sectors were down today as the market caught its breath following a streak of record highs, but also as it attempted to digest that very weak Australian Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) data. The local economy grew at a paltry 0.8% over the last 12-months. Economists were expecting growth of around 1.0%.
Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.
Also, I have detailed technical analysis on Gold and Silver in today's ChartWatch.
Let's dive in!
Today in Review
Wed 04 Dec 24, 5:07pm (AEDT)
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Markets
ASX 200 Session Chart
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 32.6 points lower at 8,462.6, smack–bang at the mid-point of the session's 0.82% range. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a dismal 104 to 173.
If I told you Information Technology (XIJ) (+0.44%) was among the few ASX sectors that rose on an otherwise dour day for Aussie stocks, you probably wouldn’t be surprised at all given it has been by far and away the best performing major ASX sector in 2024 (up around 58% this year on a total return basis).
You might, however, be surprised to hear that Resources (XJR) (+0.64%) was also up there today (it’s been terrible this year – down around 11% on a total return basis).
It might surprise you even more to learn that Energy (XEJ) (+0.25%) also made the list of winners (it's down around 13% in 2024 on a total return basis).
I should mention that the Gold (XGD) (+0.94%) sub-index was actually the best performer today – less of a surprise given it's strong overall performance in 2024 – but it’s also been down in the dumps lately. I do note that the gold price is a touch higher in Asian trade, but more likely, the plunge in the Australian dollar (post-release of some very week Australian economic growth data today) might be helping.
Come to think of it, that dip in the Aussie dollar is likely also helping export-oriented Resources and Energy for that matter.
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Petratherm (PTR) | $0.380 | +$0.175 | +85.4% | +660.0% | +578.6% |
MTM Critical Metals (MTM) | $0.155 | +$0.035 | +29.2% | +86.7% | +520.0% |
Bravura Solutions (BVS) | $2.00 | +$0.345 | +20.8% | +38.9% | +159.7% |
Syrah Resources (SYR) | $0.250 | +$0.03 | +13.6% | -13.8% | -60.2% |
Catalyst Metals (CYL) | $2.72 | +$0.16 | +6.3% | -18.3% | +172.0% |
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) | $7.32 | +$0.35 | +5.0% | -6.8% | +15.3% |
Firefly Metals (FFM) | $1.065 | +$0.04 | +3.9% | -17.4% | +97.2% |
Praemium (PPS) | $0.750 | +$0.025 | +3.4% | +16.3% | +76.5% |
Black Cat Syndicate (BC8) | $0.750 | +$0.025 | +3.4% | +37.6% | +206.1% |
Imdex (IMD) | $2.60 | +$0.08 | +3.2% | +0.4% | +40.2% |
Perenti (PRN) | $1.275 | +$0.035 | +2.8% | +10.4% | +13.8% |
Newmont Corporation (NEM) | $64.59 | +$1.73 | +2.8% | -6.0% | +6.3% |
Evolution Mining (EVN) | $5.01 | +$0.12 | +2.5% | -2.1% | +22.5% |
Nickel Industries (NIC) | $0.900 | +$0.02 | +2.3% | -2.2% | +26.8% |
Iluka Resources (ILU) | $5.64 | +$0.12 | +2.2% | -5.2% | -17.4% |
Yancoal Australia (YAL) | $6.24 | +$0.13 | +2.1% | -4.1% | +26.1% |
Iperionx (IPX) | $4.56 | +$0.09 | +2.0% | +36.5% | +237.8% |
Ramelius Resources (RMS) | $2.11 | +$0.04 | +1.9% | -9.1% | +23.0% |
Stanmore Resources (SMR) | $3.29 | +$0.06 | +1.9% | +6.8% | -17.6% |
Regis Resources (RRL) | $2.56 | +$0.04 | +1.6% | -2.7% | +31.3% |
Adriatic Metals (ADT) | $4.14 | +$0.06 | +1.5% | -1.9% | +25.5% |
Wisetech Global (WTC) | $129.58 | +$1.81 | +1.4% | +6.9% | +95.9% |
Fortescue (FMG) | $19.70 | +$0.27 | +1.4% | +3.2% | -21.8% |
Nuix (NXL) | $6.70 | +$0.09 | +1.4% | -8.2% | +262.2% |
Santos (STO) | $6.74 | +$0.08 | +1.2% | -0.7% | -2.3% |
Today's best performing stocks from the best performing ASX sectors
All other major ASX sectors were down today as the market caught its breath following a streak of record highs, but also as it attempted to digest that very weak Australian Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) data. The local economy grew at a paltry 0.8% over the last 12-months. Economists were expecting growth of around 1.0%.
This sent local bond yields falling as investors ratcheted up the probability the RBA will be forced to cut interest rates sooner than the June 2025 markets have so far pencilled in.
Australian risk-free market yields fell today, above, the yield of the 2-year Australian Government Bond
Ordinarily, lower risk-free market yields would tend to help stocks, and it may well do over the next few trading sessions (just not today!). One sector that usually does well when risk-free market yields are falling is the Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (-1.7%) sector.
It was down today less to do with economics and more to do with its largest constituent Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) dipping 2.9% after a large “block” trade went through at $36.40 a share – a sizable discount to its Tuesday close of $38.12. Media reports suggested it was a large parcel of stock being sold by a big Chinese investment fund.
Otherwise, other “weaker Australian economy” losers like Financials (XFJ) (-0.84%) and consumer stocks: Consumer Staples (XSJ) (-0.54%) and Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-0.32%) littered the losers column.
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) | $0.210 | -$0.015 | -6.7% | -6.7% | -61.1% |
PWR Holdings (PWH) | $8.15 | -$0.28 | -3.3% | -9.8% | -17.0% |
Fleetpartners Group (FPR) | $3.03 | -$0.1 | -3.2% | +5.2% | +5.9% |
AUB Group (AUB) | $31.78 | -$1.01 | -3.1% | -0.7% | +12.9% |
Goodman Group (GMG) | $37.02 | -$1.1 | -2.9% | +2.0% | +60.6% |
NIB (NHF) | $5.47 | -$0.16 | -2.8% | -5.9% | -29.1% |
HMC Capital (HMC) | $12.19 | -$0.32 | -2.6% | +21.1% | +152.9% |
GDI Property Group (GDI) | $0.585 | -$0.015 | -2.5% | -5.6% | +0.9% |
WEB Travel Group (WEB) | $4.71 | -$0.12 | -2.5% | +16.9% | -19.6% |
Metcash (MTS) | $3.35 | -$0.08 | -2.3% | +10.2% | -8.2% |
Centuria Capital Group (CNI) | $1.955 | -$0.045 | -2.3% | +6.8% | +36.2% |
Charter Hall Social Infrastructure Reit (CQE) | $2.61 | -$0.06 | -2.2% | 0% | +0.8% |
Judo Capital (JDO) | $1.975 | -$0.045 | -2.2% | +5.3% | +128.3% |
Lendlease Group (LLC) | $7.20 | -$0.16 | -2.2% | +5.7% | +8.9% |
Domain Australia (DHG) | $2.78 | -$0.06 | -2.1% | -8.6% | -18.7% |
Challenger (CGF) | $6.13 | -$0.13 | -2.1% | +2.5% | +3.5% |
Bapcor (BAP) | $4.50 | -$0.09 | -2.0% | -2.6% | -14.0% |
Chorus (CNU) | $8.11 | -$0.16 | -1.9% | +1.8% | +13.4% |
Dexus Industria Reit. (DXI) | $2.64 | -$0.05 | -1.9% | 0% | +0.4% |
Tabcorp (TAH) | $0.540 | -$0.01 | -1.8% | +13.7% | -22.3% |
Charter Hall Group (CHC) | $15.31 | -$0.27 | -1.7% | -0.2% | +49.8% |
Abacus Storage King (ASK) | $1.195 | -$0.02 | -1.6% | -0.8% | +9.1% |
ANZ Group (ANZ) | $31.19 | -$0.52 | -1.6% | +0.3% | +27.7% |
Homeco Daily Needs Reit (HDN) | $1.215 | -$0.02 | -1.6% | -1.2% | +7.5% |
National Storage Reit (NSR) | $2.46 | -$0.04 | -1.6% | -1.6% | +11.3% |
Today's worst performing stocks from the worst performing ASX sectors
ChartWatch
Gold Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX
A critical juncture
The last time we covered Gold was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 26 November 2024.
In that update, I said that “Gold is in big trouble here”. I put emphasis on the word big…as in look at that big black candle!
Big black candles can only occur if motivated supply meets a demand-side that’s doing its best to get out of the way.
They don’t happen by accident. The market is changing its mind. Big black candles are often found at the end of uptrends.
In that last update, I also identified 2566.5-2597.5 (previously 2541.5-2572.5 prior to the contract roll and back-adjust) as a “critical zone of demand”. Good news gold bugs – so far, it’s holding.
But, I put to you that the candles since the 25 Nov supply event have not shown a decisive swing back to demand-side control. They’ve not even been able to breach 50% of the way back up that 25 Nov big black candle. That’s telling because as far as I’m concerned – it demonstrates the wall of demand that drove the gold price to record after record in 2024 has gone on strike.
It’s not irretrievable for all you gold bugs out there, however. A quick close back above the midpoint of the 25 Nov candle is a minimum, but preferably also quickly above the next key point of supply at 2448.2.
This would also confirm a return to rising peaks (i.e., supply removal) and rising troughs (i.e., demand reinforcement). A test of the 2826.8 high would be a very strong possibility from there.
The alternative, a close below the 2630.3 point of demand, would confirm my suspicion that the long term trend is changing here. A close below 2566.5 would put it beyond all reasonable doubt.
Watch the candles. The next volatility event – long white candle or long black candle – will likely be decisive.
Silver Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX
Finding support in the long term uptrend ribbon
The last time we covered Silver was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 15 November 2024.
In that update, both gold and silver were peeling back from record and multi-year highs respectively as the US election result began to sink in. The Trump + Red Sweep was always considered by markets to be the worst short term outcome for gold and silver.
Good luck. Bad luck? Nope, not for me. I believe in: It just is.
Candles print. Peaks and troughs print. Price action changes. Trends change.
Do the analysis. Get on with it.
Silver has largely been bumping along the dynamic demand support of the long term uptrend ribbon since our last update. Two distinct points of demand have now formed in 30.17 and 30.095.
Candles in the ribbon haven’t been awful, with some decent white bodies and downward pointing shadows. This tells me that there’s some shopping going in there.
However, I am concerned that were showing falling troughs (and falling peaks for that matter), and if there is another one, it’s likely to pierce the bottom of the long term uptrend ribbon. We really don’t want to mess around with down there.
A close back above 32.04 is critical to restart silver’s short and long term uptrends. Ideally it occurs on a long white-bodied candle with a high session close. In this scenario, I cant see any reason why silver can’t again challenge those highs around 35.15-35.47.
The alternative scenario is a close below 30.095, and very close to it, below the bottom of the long term uptrend ribbon. This would nullify the long term uptrend and signal the supply-side is in complete control of the silver price.
Economy
Today
AUS Gross Domestic Product (GDP) September Qtr
+0.3% vs +0.5% q/q forecast and +0.2% q/q in June Qtr
Small tick up from the quarterly pace of growth in the June quarter, but on a rolling 12-month basis a very slow 0.8% p.a. (vs economists' forecasts for +1.0% p.a. growth)
Very slow growth indeed and likely to provide some headline shock headaches for the Federal Government, whilst maybe, just maybe, also getting some attention from the RBA (and making them more amenable to cutting rates sooner rather than later - FYI market pricing for first 0.25% cut is June).
CHN Caixin Manufacturing (PMI) November
51.5 vs 52.5 forecast vs 52.0 in October = slower than expected but still growing (readings above 50 indicate growth in the sector)
Later this week
Thursday
02:00 USA ISM Services PMI November (55.5 forecast vs 56.0 in October)
05:45 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
Friday
00:30 USA Weekly Unemployment Claims (215,000 forecast vs 213,000 previous)
Saturday
00:30 USA Non-Farm Employment Change November (+202,000 forecast vs +12,000 in October)
00:30 USA Average hourly earnings November (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.4% m/m in October)
00:30 USA Employment Rate November (4.2% forecast vs 4.1% in October)
Latest News
Interesting Movers
Trading higher
+20.8% Bravura Solutions (BVS) - Upgraded guidance and dividend update, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list (actually was a Feature in today's list!) 🔎📈
+17.2% Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals. (PAR) - No news today, but has been on a rocket ride since 19 Nov 2024 AGM Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up, watch out for it as a Feature in tomorrow's ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list! 🔎📈
+13.6% Syrah Resources (SYR) - No news, pop on volume, possibly some short seller moves…short and long term trends still down...📉
+13.5% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) - 4DMedical unveils CT VQ at RSNA 2024
+10.5% Imugene (IMU) - No news, pop on volume, possibly some short seller moves…short and long term trends still down...📉
+5.0% Guzman y Gomez (GYG) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, recently appearing in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list (since 26 Nov candle) 🔎📈
+3.9% Firefly Metals (FFM) - Investor Presentation Dec 2024 - Resources Rising Stars
+3.7% Adairs (ADH) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈
+3.4% Praemium (PPS) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈
+3.2% Regis Healthcare (REG) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈
Trading lower
-7.5% Ioneer (INR) - No news, lithium futures price is sliding again today in China, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉
-7.0% Chalice Mining (CHN) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉
-6.7% The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉
-6.0% Droneshield (DRO) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉
-5.5% Fletcher Building (FBU) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉
-5.3% Audinate Group (AD8) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉
-5.0% Mayne Pharma Group (MYX) - No news, pullback after strong rally
-4.9% Mesoblast (MSB) - No news since yesterday's REVASCOR Improves Survival & Reduces Major Morbidity, pullback after strong rally
-4.5% Service Stream (SSM) - No news since yesterday's Service Stream Contracts Update, pullback after strong rally
-4.4% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉
-4.2% Mineral Resources (MIN) - No news, lithium futures price is sliding again today in China, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉
-4.0% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) - No news, lithium futures price is sliding again today in China, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉
Broker Notes
29METALS (29M)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $0.45
Auckland International Airport (AIA)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: NZ$8.70
ALS (ALQ)
Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $17.30
Aurelia Metals (AMI)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.29 from $0.27
Bank of Queensland (BOQ)
Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.10
Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.50
Breville Group (BRG)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.10
Collins Foods (CKF)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.88
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $10.00
Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $9.20 from $9.57
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.20 from $8.30
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $11.60 from $11.00
Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $10.50
Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $9.00 from $9.50
Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $8.20 from $9.00
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.80 from $10.40
De Grey Mining (DEG)
Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $2.05 from $1.75
Fenix Resources (FEX)
Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.41
Gold Road Resources (GOR)
Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.00
GQG Partners (GQG)
Upgraded to add from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $2.47
Insurance Australia Group (IAG)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.55 from $8.20
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.50
Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $8.05
Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $8.35 from $7.85
Retained at outperform at JP Morgan; Price Target: $8.55 from $7.35
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.55
Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $9.30 from $8.90
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $8.55
James Hardie Industries (JHX)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $56.00
Metcash (MTS)
Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.10
Northern Star Resources (NST)
Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $17.00 from $18.30
Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $20.18
Origin Energy (ORG)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.35
Pro Medicus (PME)
Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $260.00 from $130.00
Regis Healthcare (REG)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.20 from $6.40
Steadfast Group (SDF)
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.50
Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $6.50 from $6.20
Washington H Soul Pattinson & Company (SOL)
Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $36.30 from $35.60
Spartan Resources (SPR)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.10 from $1.70
Westgold Resources (WGX)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.50
Wisetech Global (WTC)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $138.00
Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $124.50
Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $133.00
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $152.70
Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $120.00
Scans
Carl has over 30-years investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.
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