Evening Wrap: ASX 200 ends week on high note as banks, tech keep powering, gold and silver bounce but uranium and lithium stocks tumble

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 61.2 points higher, up 0.74%.

The usual suspects of post-US election winners were prominent in the winners list today, joined by a slew of interest rate sensitives that seemed to enjoy a modest pullback in market yields. Utilities, Financials, and Technology helped the S&P/ASX narrow it's weekly loss to under 10 points. Key gold and silver stocks also bounced back.

Uranium and lithium stocks have had a massively volatile week, with each sector experiencing sharp gains and losses at times. Today, coordinated losses.

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on Gold and Silver in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 61.2 points higher at 8,285.2, smack–bang on its session high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by 173 to 109. For the week, the XJO finished down 9.9 points or 0.12% lower, 1.8% from its intraweek low and just 0.12% from its intraweek high.

The usual suspects of post-US election winners were prominent in the winners list today, joined by a slew of interest rate sensitives that seemed to enjoy a modest pullback in market yields.

Utilities (XUJ) (+2.4%) and the Gold (XGD) (+1.6%) sub-index certainly fall into the latter category, gold also is likely benefiting also from the gold price closing well off the its session lows on Thursday. Hardly an inspiring performance (see ChartWatch section below) – but better than the heavy losses it had been taking since the US election result began to sink in last week.

Financials (XFJ) (+1.5%) and Information Technology (XIJ) (+0.94%) continued their recent bouts of strong performance (funds just couldn’t get enough of stocks in these sectors this week – particularly key US earnings winners), while elsewhere, a big gain in Qantas Airways (ASX: QAN) (+3.6%) drove the Industrials (XNJ) (+1.2%) sector.

Energy (XEJ) (+0.78%) is another notable addition to the winners circle today as major oil and gas stocks continued to rebound. That’s two in a row now for a sector that's been hobbled in 2024 (But! No help from uranium stocks today – they were belted even as the uranium price rose overnight).

Today's best performing ASX stocks

The only sector that dipped into the red was Health Care (XHJ) (-1.8%). It was dragged lower by a big fall in Healius (ASX: HLS) (-16%), which delivered a disappointing trading update at its AGM today. Sector heavyweight CSL (ASX: CSL) (-2.5%) wasn't much chop either.

Today's worst performing ASX stocks

ChartWatch

Gold Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Trumped!

The last time we covered was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 29 October.

In that update, we were one day from the eventual all time high. It’s been a wall of excess supply since then. Each time I do one of these, I go to great pains to remind you how to determine for yourself that excess supply is taking control of the price.

The finger prints of excess supply are supply-side candles (i.e., black bodies and or upward pointing shadows), and falling peaks and falling troughs. I trust you were able to pick up on these and play along with the gold chart at home.

To be fair if you didn’t see this one coming there’s no shame at all – the reasons for gold’s decline lie with unexpected news (Trump + Red Sweep = Widely accepted to be short term worst case scenario for gold). You couldn’t have seen this one coming.

But once the rot (supply-side) candle set in, it was just a matter of which demand points were going to hold/not hold.

Not hold was generally the case, and we find ourselves almost touching the dynamic demand of the long term uptrend ribbon at the low of Thursday’s candle. It appears to be doing it’s job so far, that is helping prices to claw back from those lows for now.

We will need to see a strong follow through in the form of a long white candle tonight, or at the very least another long downward pointing shadow with a low at the top of the long term trend ribbon. If either occurs, there’s a good chance the long term uptrend here can resume.

What we don’t want to see is a wipe of Thursday’s lower shadow, that is, a long black candle closing near the long of the session and within the long term uptrend. It would scream to the market that the demand it was expecting down here has no guts whatsoever!

2502.7 is the next key point of demand down. Supply is at the short term uptrend ribbon, currently kicking in around 2665.

Silver Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Second to gold again...

The last time we covered silver was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 30 October.

In that update, as with gold, things were going swimmingly well. Then came Trump.

We often say that silver is a higher-beta trade to the stuff that usually moves gold. This just means that up and down moves tend to be exacerbated compared to gold – certainly it has been the case since the US election result.

We are seeing the same probing of dynamic demand at the long term uptrend ribbon, and the same downward pointing shadow in Thursday’s candle. So, ditto here on silver really needing to put in a strong performance ASAP. A long white candle and or long downward pointing shadow with a high candle close please!

Silver also happens to be trading at the key 30.035-30.345 demand zone. It's therefore very clear this area / long term uptrend ribbon must be held or silver risks a deep decline. A close below it and deep into the long term uptrend ribbon with a long black candle and low close would be disastrous for silver bulls.

Supply is at the short term uptrend ribbon, currently kicking in around 31.75.

Economy

Today

• CHN Data Dump:

  • New Home Prices -0.51% m/m vs -0.7% m/m previous

  • Industrial Production +5.3% y/y vs +5.5% y/y forecast and +5.4% y/y previous

  • Retail Sales +4.8% y/y vs +3.8% y/y forecast and +3.2% y/y previous

  • Fixed Asset Investment +3.4% ytd/y vs +3.5% ytd/y forecast and +3.4% ytd/y previous

  • Unemployment Rate 5.0% vs 5.1% forecast and 5.1% previous

Later this week

Saturday

• 00:30 USA Core Retail Sales October (+0.2% m/m forecast vs +0.5% m/m in September)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +12.9% Silver Mines (SVL) - No news, but silver futures price closed well off its lows in Thursday's trade

• +9.2% Adriatic Metals (ADT) - Likely also a bit of ditto silver here, but mainly Change in substantial holding, and to be fair, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (was a ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list regular through October, hasn't been in for a while, but watch out for it in Monday's Ed.) 🔎📈

• +5.2% Superloop (SLC) - Trading Update and Annual General Meeting - CEO Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list regular) 🔎📈

• +5.0% Capricorn Metals (CMM) - MGGP Ore Reserve Grows to 2.59 Million Ounces, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list regular) 🔎📈

• +4.9% Myer (MYR) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list regular) 🔎📈

• +4.9% Fineos Corporation (FCL) - No news, continued positive response to 13 Nov Investor Presentation

• +4.8% Vault Minerals (VAU) - No news, relief rally in ASX gold sector today as gold price closed off session lows on Thursday

• +4.7% West African Resources (WAF) - No news, relief rally in ASX gold sector today as gold price closed off session lows on Thursday

• +4.5% Catapult Group International (CAT) - No news, continued positive response to 14 Nov 1H FY25 Results Release, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list regular) 🔎📈

• +4.1% De Grey Mining (DEG) - No news today, but brokers responded to yesterday's Hemi Gold Project Mineral Resource Estimate 2024 with 2 x retained BUY ratings (see Broker Moves section below), relief rally in ASX gold sector today as gold price closed off session lows on Thursday

• +3.8% Regis Resources (RRL) - No news, relief rally in ASX gold sector today as gold price closed off session lows on Thursday

• +3.6% Qantas Airways (QAN) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list regular) 🔎📈

• +3.6% Nufarm (NUF) - No news today, but brokers responded to yesterday's Full year results - market release with 1 x rating upgrade and several modest target price increases (see Broker Moves section below), relief rally in ASX gold sector today as gold price closed off session lows on Thursday

Trading lower

• -25.3% Peninsula Energy (PEN) - Peninsula Energy/Lance Project Update, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -16.0% Healius (HLS) - CEO Address to Shareholders, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -12.7% Wildcat Resources (WC8) - No news, continued negative response to 14 Nov Response to Media Speculation, also lithium minerals prices dipping back in China today after a sharp reversal of this week's rally yesterday, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -11.8% Mesoblast (MSB) - CEO Presentation to 2024 Annual General Meeting and Mesoblast Chair Message to 2024 AGM, (after yesterday's Response to ASX Price Query = what a schemozzle!!! 🤦‍♂️)

• -6.8% Imugene (IMU) - Director Resignation, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (a ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends list regular) 🔎📉

• -6.7% Core Lithium (CXO) - No news, ditto a tough day generally for ASX lithium stocks on spectacular fade out of promising rally in lithium minerals prices earlier in the week!

• -6.4% Opthea (OPT) - Director Appointment/Resignation, Chair's Address to Shareholders, and Opthea Received A$15.9 Million R&D Tax Incentive

• -5.4% Nuix (NXL) - No news, continued negative response to 13 Nov Annual General Meeting 2024 Chairman and Group CEO Address

• -5.1% Graincorp (GNC) - No news today, but brokers responded to yesterday's N with several target price cuts (see Broker Moves section below)

• -5.0% Mineral Resources (MIN) - Response to ASX Compliance Letter, downgraded to HOLD from OUTPERFORM at CLSA and target price cut to $37.00 from $49.00, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (a ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends list regular) 🔎📉

• -4.9% Ioneer (INR) - No news, ditto ASX lithium

• -4.4% Lotus Resources (LOT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (a ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends list regular) 🔎📉

• -4.3% Syrah Resources (SYR) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (a ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends list regular) 🔎📉

• -3.8% Lovisa (LOV) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, long term trend is transitioning from up to down (a recent regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists) 🔎📉

• -3.8% Droneshield (DRO) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (a ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends list regular) 🔎📉

• -3.7% Boss Energy (BOE) - Production and revenue growth at Alta Mesa Uranium Project, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (a ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends list regular) 🔎📉

Broker Notes

• Life360 (360)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $25.00

• APA Group (APA)

  • Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.60

• BHP Group (BHP)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $46.85

• Catapult Group International (CAT)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.30 from $2.88

• Coles Group (COL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $21.00

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $18.50

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $16.90

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $19.50

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $18.30

• Cosol (COS)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.20

• Computershare (CPU)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $31.00 from $30.00

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $27.70

• Civmec (CVL)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.40 from $1.45

• De Grey Mining (DEG)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.15 from $1.82

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.90

• Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $20.35 from $24.35

  • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $22.00

  • Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $23.10 from $23.70

  • Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $18.00 from $19.50

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $22.34 from $23.34

• Graincorp (GNC)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.25 from $9.80

  • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $10.30

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.85 from $10.07

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $9.80 from $10.05

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.00

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.60 from $9.80

• GPT Group (GPT)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.15

• Green Technology Metals (GT1)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.14

• Gentrack Group (GTK)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: NZ$11.75

• Insignia Financial (IFL)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.25 from $3.20

• Inghams Group (ING)

  • Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $3.65

• IPH (IPH)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.50

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.75

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $6.80 from $7.55

• Light & Wonder (LNW)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $180.00

  • Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $187.00

• Arcadium Lithium (LTM)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.70

• Liontown Resources (LTR)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.40

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $61.00

  • Downgraded to hold from outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $37.00 from $49.00

• Nufarm (NUF)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.25 from $4.05

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $3.75 from $3.65

  • Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $4.40

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.22 from $4.00

  • Upgraded to add from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $4.53 from $4.23

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $5.00 from $4.75

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.50

• Orica (ORI)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $19.00

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $21.40

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $18.50

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $20.90 from $20.80

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $20.51 from $19.76

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $22.50 from $21.50

  • Upgraded to add from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $19.72 from $18.85

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $22.00 from $20.00

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $23.00 from $22.00

• South32 (S32)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.30

• Superloop (SLC)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.10

• Straker (STG)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.38 from $0.89

• Seven Group (SVW)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $45.90

• Turaco Gold (TCG)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.70

• Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $11.50

• West African Resources (WAF)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.70

• Westgold Resources (WGX)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.40

• Xero (XRO)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $185.00

  • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $201.00 from $181.00

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $201.00

  • Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $177.00 from $151.00

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $195.00 from $173.00

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $191.90 from $188.50

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $220.00 from $170.00

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $140.00

  • Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $180.00 from $160.00

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $199.00 from $175.00

Scans