Evening Wrap: ASX 200 sags into week's close on fears over US jobs data, bank stocks' demise is mining's upward surprise...

For the most part, Aussie investors chose the sidelines today ahead of a major US jobs report due early tomorrow morning our time. Gold, and mining stocks more generally, were rare highlights in a market that drifted sideways from the open to close to give up another 0.42% of Monday to Wednesday's gains.

Still, we did manage to eke out a small rise in the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 for the week, but with substantially mixed results across the major sectors, it was an unconvincing performance overall.

Next week brings further critical data on US inflation and consumer spending, but also on local employment – so investors will need to remain vigilant!

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on Copper, Thermal and Coking Coal, Coffee, and Cocoa in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 35.1 points lower at 8,294.1, 0.75% from its session high and 0.39% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by 104 to 175. For the week, the XJO finished up 128.3 points or 1.56% higher, 0.63% from its intraweek low but a greater 0.92% from its intraweek high.

The Gold (XGD) (+0.97%) sub-index was the best performing sector today, likely in response to the fact that gold is on track to log its fourth-straight daily gain.

Not to be outdone, copper is on track to go six- out of six, and that helped drive a welcome rebound in Resources (XJR) (+0.74%). I have detailed technical analysis on copper for you in this evening's ChartWatch, below.

Iron ore and steel-related stocks also picked up, but I note few drivers here in terms of the iron ore price, and worse still, Chinese stocks appear to be breaking lower again (don’t worry, I have the real reason Resources rallied today for you below!).

FTSE China A50 Index Futures (click here for full size image)

Today's best performing gold and other mining stocks

Resources was the only major sector to log a gain today in otherwise tepid trade. It's disappointing to see Monday-Wednesday's gains dissolve in the face of investor apathy (and at least some preference for the sidelines ahead of tonight's major US jobs report).

Hardest hit was Financials (XFJ) (-1.8%), most likely on the back of a disparaging research report from Goldman Sachs. Their view, like most of their broking peers, is that Aussie banks remain historically overvalued – big time – and this is likely to rectify itself some time in 2025.

Still, they saw fit to upgrade their rating on ANZ Group (ASX: ANZ), but don’t get too excited – it was only to Equal-weight from Underweight. To balance this out, they cut their rating on Westpac Banking Corp. (ASX: WBC) to Underweight from Equal-weight.

Financials down, resources up. It’s the yin and yang of the Australian stock market. Has been since the beginning and will be forevermore!

Today's worst performing stocks from the worst performing sectors

ChartWatch

High Grade Copper Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Copper resurgence not much more than a flash in the pan? (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered high grade copper was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 16 December.

In that update, we were tracking another roll in the copper price from the dynamic supply of the long term trend ribbon. That roll ultimately cracked the 4.0615-4.1115 demand zone, but as can be seen from the chart above, there was very little follow through.

In what now appears to be somewhat of a bear trap, copper has logged a substantial counter-trend rally up to (ironically) the key point of supply formed just before our last update at 4.335.

The short term trend is neutral, but is edging higher, and the long term trend ribbon is also neutral – an almost perfect example too I might add!

That’s my tip here. Neutral.

Yes, I am impressed by the demand-side's incredible showing from the 4-handle, but ultimately the broader technicals suggest continued rangebound price action between that 4-handle and the major supply zone at 4.831-4.8595.

This idea doesn’t rule out continued short term gains however, possibly to interact with supply around 4.5625-4.5685.

As always, watch the candles and price action. Black candles and or upward pointing shadows, along with the setting of lower peaks – would indicate the supply-side is moving back into control.

On the other hand, white candles and or downward pointing shadows, and a confirming higher trough to 4.005 would confirm newly acquired demand-side control, and likely facilitate that move to 4.5625.

Newcastle Coal Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) ICE & Australian Premium Coking Coal Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) SGX

Detailed analysis of the above charts suggests...blah! 📢 (click here or click here for full size image)

The last time we covered thermal coal was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 24 December and we covered coking coal in the Evening Wrap on 28 November.

In those updates, we were tracking well-established short and long term downtrends. Nothing substantial has happened in the total of those four trends since each respective update – as is so often the case in commodities.

They are markets that trend. Commodities are pure supply and demand. There’s either too much of the stuff for the market to accommodate (forcing prices lower to entice in new buyers), or there's not enough of it (forcing prices higher to shake out fresh supply).

I don’t really even want to discuss the above two charts, because I suggest that if you’ve been suffering through these ChartWatch ramblings for any great length of time, then you’ll pretty much know exactly what I’ll say…

Downtrend. Blah. Supply-side control. Blah. Environment of excess supply. Blah. Expect the status quo to remain until we see the fingerprints of excess demand. Blah. Rising peaks and rising troughs. Blah. Close back above the dynamic supply of the trend ribbons. Blah, blah, blah-di-blah, blah!!!

Hey – at least I’m consistent!

No, I want to leave you on this Friday evening with two commodity charts that so beautifully illustrate what can happen in the “there’s not enough of the stuff” scenario: Coffee and Cocoa. Your morning cuppa and two squares of 80%-proof chocolate (nothing less than 80%...surely!? 😁)

Coffee Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) ICE (click here for full size image)

Cocoa Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) ICE (click here for full size image)

The bottom line is: When it comes to investing you have a choice. Uptrend or downtrend. Follow or fight. Consistency or Chaos. 🤔

You can make this choice any time you want. Now, next week, or never. Choose wisely!

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Saturday

• 00:30 USA Non-Farm Employment Change December (+154,000 forecast vs +227,000 in November)

• 00:30 USA Unemployment Rate (4.2% forecast vs 4.2% in November)

• 00:30 USA Average Hourly Earnings December m/m (+0.3% forecast vs +0.4% in November)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +7.1% Pantoro (PNR) - No news since 7 Jan Bullen Underground rehabilitation progressing well, ASX gold stocks generally higher today on fourth-straight daily gain in gold price (albeit modest overall!)

• +6.4% Genusplus Group (GNP) - Genus Awarded Contract for Western Power Clean Energy Link, rise is consistent with prevailing long-term uptrend 🔎📈

• +6.2% Sims (SGM) - No news, generally higher iron ore/steel stocks today…iron ore price flat, so no catalysts there…China stocks cracking again…I do note, SGM did get a price target increase from Goldman Sachs to $15.50 from $13.70

• +5.3% Iluka Resources (ILU) - No news, ditto SGM and generally strong Resources sector today, also a price target increase from Goldman Sachs here to $7.80 from $7.70 and retained at BUY

• +5.2% Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC) - No news, but this one is a little easier to explain given copper prices are on track to log their sixth-straight daily gain – see today's ChartWatch section, above, for detailed technical analysis of copper

• +4.9% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - No news, ditto generally strong ASX gold stocks, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends, plus solid bounce off long-term uptrend ribbon 🔎📈

• +4.4% Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.0% Westgold Resources (WGX) - No news, ditto generally strong ASX gold stocks, rebounding after yesterday's plunge on N

• +3.2% Sandfire Resources (SFR) - No news, ditto generally strong ASX copper stocks, nice bounce out of long-term uptrend ribbon 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -15.4% The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) - No news, continued negative response to Wednesday's Update on cash and liquidity, several broker price target cuts flowing through, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long-term downtrends, one of the most Featured stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list in 2024 (and now in 2025!) 🔎📉

• -5.4% GQG Partners (GQG) - No news, continued negative response to Wednesday's FUM as at 31 December 2024, several broker price target cuts flowing through today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long-term downtrends 🔎📉

• -4.4% Weebit Nano (WBT) - No news, typical of recent volatility

• -4.3% Brainchip (BRN) - No news, ditto WBT!

• -4.0% Peninsula Energy (PEN) - No news, generally weaker ASX uranium stocks today, no obvious drivers as to why, but I do note key uranium stocks were lower overnight

• -3.5% Bannerman Energy (BMN) - No news, ditto generally weaker ASX uranium stocks

• -2.8% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long-term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -2.7% Lovisa (LOV) - No news, continued negative response to yesterday's UBS downgrade, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long-term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Notes

• ANZ Group (ANZ)

  • Upgraded to equal-weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $27.80

• Amotiv (AOV)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.65

• ARB Corporation (ARB)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $50.00

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $47.15

• Avita Medical (AVH)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.50 from $4.60

• Bapcor (BAP)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.17

• Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $12.00

• BHP Group (BHP)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $47.50 from $47.40

• Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.10

• Bluescope Steel (BSL)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $26.70 from $25.10

• Car Group (CAR)

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $39.00

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $114.00 from $113.50

• Cuscal (CCL)

  • Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.55

• Challenger (CGF)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.60 from $7.82

• Champion Iron (CIA)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.80 from $7.50

• Collins Foods (CKF)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.38

• Coles Group (COL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $21.00

• Coronado Global Resources (CRN)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.20 from $1.35

• Downer EDI (DOW)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.65 from $5.35

• Deterra Royalties (DRR)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.60 from $4.50

• Fortescue (FMG)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $16.30 from $15.40

• Harvey Norman (HVN)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.50

• Iluka Resources (ILU)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.80 from $7.70

• JB HI-FI (JBH)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $85.00

• Judo Capital (JDO)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.75

• Jumbo Interactive (JIN)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $16.50

• Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.70 from $7.30

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $34.00 from $41.00

• National Australia Bank (NAB)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $38.40

• New Hope Corporation (NHC)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.30

• Platinum Asset Management (PTM)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $0.75

• Peter Warren Automotive (PWR)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.46 from $1.88

• QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $21.50 from $21.30

• REA Group (REA)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $240.00

• Rio Tinto (RIO)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $147.80 from $135.10

• South32 (S32)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.00 from $3.90

• Seek (SEK)

  • Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $27.00

• Sandfire Resources (SFR)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $10.20 from $10.40

• Sims (SGM)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $15.50 from $13.70

• The Star Entertainment Group (SGR)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.17 from $0.30

• Super Retail Group (SUL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $19.00

• Vitrafy Life Sciences (VFY)

  • Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.45

• Ventia Services Group (VNT)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.30 from $4.35

• Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

  • Downgraded to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $30.00

• Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $9.10 from $7.90

Scans