Market Wraps

Evening Wrap: ASX 200 edges higher as 2024 bull run remains intact on strong banks, uranium and gold stocks falter

Tue 24 Dec 24, 3:22pm (AEDT)

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The S&P/ASX 200 closed 19.3 points higher, up 0.24%.

That's it for Evening Wrap for 2024! We'll return with the best post-market ASX wrap on the internet and in your inbox on 6 January 2025.

But for one last time, it was another tidy little gain on the S&P/ASX 200 today, led by the Big 4 banks of ANZ Group, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank and Westpac. Property, Health Care, and Energy stocks were also solid. Unfortunately, Resources stocks were lower, again, as gold and uranium stocks faltered.

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on Uranium, Coal and the NASDAQ Composite in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!


Today in Review

Tue 24 Dec 24, 3:08pm (AEDT)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
ASX 200 8,220.9 +0.24%
All Ords 8,471.5 +0.22%
Small Ords 3,091.1 +0.12%
All Tech 3,825.1 -0.11%
Emerging Companies 2,246.5 +0.05%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6235 -0.23%
US Futures
S&P 500 6,034.5 -0.02%
Dow Jones 43,307.0 -0.03%
Nasdaq 21,742.5 -0.05%
Name Value % Chg
Sector
Real Estate 3,885.3 +0.84%
Health Care 44,981.5 +0.81%
Energy 8,467.7 +0.72%
Utilities 9,083.5 +0.58%
Financials 8,693.0 +0.33%
Information Technology 2,761.0 +0.30%
Communication Services 1,651.1 +0.24%
Consumer Staples 11,769.6 +0.23%
Consumer Discretionary 3,931.1 -0.06%
Industrials 7,709.1 -0.10%
Materials 16,204.5 -0.33%

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Markets

XJO Intraday Chart 24 December 2024
ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 19.3 points higher at 8,220.9, 0.33% from its session low and just 0.07% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by 164 to 103.

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

Arcadium Lithium (LTM)

$8.26

+$0.54

+7.0%

+1.7%

0%

Brainchip (BRN)

$0.315

+$0.015

+5.0%

+28.6%

+75.0%

Opthea (OPT)

$0.760

+$0.035

+4.8%

+24.6%

+73.7%

Iperionx (IPX)

$5.08

+$0.23

+4.7%

+12.9%

+293.8%

Megaport (MP1)

$7.71

+$0.29

+3.9%

+1.6%

-14.9%

Dexus (DXS)

$7.10

+$0.26

+3.8%

+1.4%

-7.6%

IDP Education (IEL)

$12.26

+$0.43

+3.6%

-0.2%

-40.3%

Avita Medical (AVH)

$3.94

+$0.13

+3.4%

-6.2%

+3.4%

Liontown Resources (LTR)

$0.550

+$0.015

+2.8%

-30.8%

-64.3%

Kogan.Com (KGN)

$6.24

+$0.15

+2.5%

+25.6%

+22.4%

GPT Group (GPT)

$4.66

+$0.11

+2.4%

-0.2%

+1.3%

Viva Energy Group (VEA)

$2.63

+$0.06

+2.3%

+1.5%

-22.4%

The A2 Milk Company (A2M)

$5.83

+$0.13

+2.3%

+5.8%

+36.9%

Monadelphous Group (MND)

$13.84

+$0.29

+2.1%

+10.3%

-5.8%

Charter Hall Group (CHC)

$15.07

+$0.31

+2.1%

-3.3%

+27.8%

SRG Global (SRG)

$1.305

+$0.025

+2.0%

-0.4%

+96.2%

Worley (WOR)

$13.71

+$0.26

+1.9%

-3.2%

-21.2%

Vicinity Centres (VCX)

$2.14

+$0.04

+1.9%

-2.3%

+7.3%

Ventia Services Group (VNT)

$3.63

+$0.06

+1.7%

-21.9%

+18.6%

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

$25.02

+$0.4

+1.6%

+9.9%

+154.8%

Ampol (ALD)

$27.50

+$0.43

+1.6%

-3.8%

-22.5%

Cochlear (COH)

$296.72

+$4.45

+1.5%

-1.6%

+0.5%

Seek (SEK)

$23.12

+$0.34

+1.5%

-12.9%

-11.1%

Infratil (IFT)

$11.56

+$0.17

+1.5%

+1.2%

+25.9%

Lendlease Group (LLC)

$6.32

+$0.09

+1.4%

-6.5%

-13.5%

Today's best performing ASX stocks

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6)

$4.00

-$0.22

-5.2%

-30.6%

+143.2%

Appen (APX)

$2.19

-$0.1

-4.4%

-6.8%

+204.2%

West African Resources (WAF)

$1.440

-$0.065

-4.3%

-4.0%

+51.6%

Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

$0.655

-$0.025

-3.7%

-8.4%

+204.7%

Bannerman Energy (BMN)

$2.80

-$0.1

-3.4%

+1.4%

+6.1%

Paladin Energy (PDN)

$7.55

-$0.25

-3.2%

-9.1%

-22.6%

Deep Yellow (DYL)

$1.115

-$0.035

-3.0%

-12.5%

+9.9%

Vault Minerals (VAU)

$0.320

-$0.01

-3.0%

-5.9%

+1.6%

Emerald Resources (EMR)

$3.30

-$0.1

-2.9%

-11.1%

+12.2%

Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR)

$3.16

-$0.09

-2.8%

-8.1%

-14.8%

IPH (IPH)

$4.95

-$0.13

-2.6%

-0.2%

-24.2%

Resolute Mining (RSG)

$0.390

-$0.01

-2.5%

-2.5%

-14.3%

Droneshield (DRO)

$0.640

-$0.015

-2.3%

-15.2%

+96.9%

Pro Medicus (PME)

$250.19

-$5.25

-2.1%

+9.9%

+168.0%

Perseus Mining (PRU)

$2.54

-$0.05

-1.9%

-3.4%

+34.4%

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

$2.11

-$0.04

-1.9%

+1.9%

+23.8%

Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL)

$5.41

-$0.1

-1.8%

-18.6%

+108.1%

Zip Co. (ZIP)

$2.91

-$0.05

-1.7%

-13.1%

+401.7%

IGO (IGO)

$4.82

-$0.08

-1.6%

-2.0%

-46.5%

Regis Resources (RRL)

$2.59

-$0.04

-1.5%

-1.1%

+20.5%

Life360 (360)

$22.26

-$0.33

-1.5%

+2.3%

+194.8%

Gold Road Resources (GOR)

$2.03

-$0.03

-1.5%

+9.1%

+1.5%

Breville Group (BRG)

$35.52

-$0.52

-1.4%

+7.6%

+34.5%

Data#3 (DTL)

$6.43

-$0.09

-1.4%

-18.1%

-22.3%

Integral Diagnostics (IDX)

$2.87

-$0.04

-1.4%

-1.7%

+51.9%

Today's worst performing ASX stocks

ChartWatch

Uranium Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Uranium Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX chart 23 December 2024
The downtrend meltdown continues...📉

The last time we covered uranium was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 17 December.

I’ve gotten a few things right and a few things wrong this year (I’ll let you decide what the balance between the two is ⚖️), but perhaps the call I am most proud of in 2024 is calling the change in short and long term trends for uranium.

The internet is awash with bullish narratives that are too easy to believe and throw your hard-earned investing dollar at.

Too often I’ve seen what appeared to be a bottom-left-top-right demand narrative get destroyed by time and supply. Everyone falls in love with the demand-side of the equation – but rarely considers the potential supply-side response.

Whatever the reason (as a technical analyst I have zero interest in the underlying fundamentals), the price told the story with respect to the uranium narrative in 2024 (as it did for lithium in 2022).

The double green bit on the left of the chart above corresponds to D > S = P⬆️.

The middle bit, as correctly called here throughout the year corresponds to D = S = P➡️

The bit on the right, as correctly called from 1 August here corresponds to S > P = P⬇️.

This chart is a perfect picture of how demand and supply interact to create the price and how the price represents the transition between demand-side control to supply-side control through a phase of equilibrium.

Demand-side control. Equilibrium. Supply-side control.

  • One of these three states of the demand-supply environment is conducive to being long.

  • One of them is conducive to being short.

  • One of them is conducive to sitting on one’s hands until either of the other two states appears.

That is the simplicity of a technical analysis trend following approach. The good news is that this stuff was happening long before 2024 – and even better – it will be happening long after.

I better do some uranium TA now…🤔

✅ Short and long term trends are ⬇️ / ⬇️

✅ The price action is below both trend ribbons and both trend ribbons appear to be acting as zones of dynamic supply

✅ The price action is falling peaks and falling troughs (i.e., demand removal and supply reinforcement) 📉

✅ Key Points of demand are being destroyed and key points of supply are being respected

The ✅’s above correspond to a demand-supply environment demonstrative of supply-side control (what’s your ✅ system for entering and exiting trades?).

This means a big fat donut for the uranium price is going next. That’s not what my brand of technical analysis is about. I can see what’s happened, at best, I can see what’s happening right now.

I have no idea where the uranium price will be tomorrow, next week, or at the end of 2025. No one does, not even the most learned expert on the uranium market – because as far as I last checked – no one can tell the future.

But what I do know with absolute certainty is how I must behave in a market that is demonstrative of supply-side control.

I can’t control the market. But I can control how I act in them. (Not a terrible couple of mantras for 2025, huh? 🤔)

Newcastle Coal Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) ICE

Newcastle Coal Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) ICE weekly chart 24 December 2024
Going down in flames 🔥🔥🔥

Somewhat maintaining the energy production theme here, but really it’s just an interesting chart…is this one of thermal coal (last covered in the Evening Wrap on 18 December).

In that last update, we noted well-entrenched short and long term downtrends, cascading price action, and the destruction of the 138.50 point of demand.

I noted that if the 129.50 point of demand went, “the angle of attack of the short term trend could steepen”.

We are looking at a weekly chart this time, but bad news coal bulls, 129.50 has indeed gone.

There’s an interesting but relatively minor (compared to the next one I’ll discuss) point of demand at 93.20 that may now come into play. Below that, 15.85 is a substantially major point of demand.

The reason why you can see negative values on this chart is due to the back-adjusting process for futures charting. Ignore them.

Also note, the trend ribbons work the same here. Much as was the case with uranium, the break below the long term trend ribbon is telling, and it has the same implications here on the weekly chart – just with a longer term view.

Again, I don’t know where the price of thermal coal will be in the next 5-minutes let alone at this time next year – all I can say with confidence is this market is in a state of excess supply / supply-side control. Fundamentals be damned!

NASDAQ Composite Index

NASDAQ Composite Index chart 23 December 2024
Long live the bull market! 🐂💪

The last time we covered the Comp was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 19 December.

In that update, we were tracking that dirty great big black candle posted immediately after the December FOMC meeting pivot – the one where they increased their interest rate forecasts by 50 basis points for the next two years.

One thing I’ve been pretty consistent about in 2024 is interest rates set the price of money and it’s the price of money that ultimately move stocks.

I noted in that last update the massive supply-side candle could not be ignored as it was “a major warning signal something isn’t right with the short term uptrend”.

I also noted, however, that it wasn’t time to panic, rather, to await confirmation. Confirmation of whether the supply-side was indeed taking control of the Comp price, or just as likely to occur – whether the demand-side was stepping back in to steady the ship.

So far, it looks like the latter. Don’t look so surprised! It is a bull market after all.

The natural state of a bull market is for the demand-side to re-exert its control at key points of demand. They could be static points, like 19366 (held), or dynamic zones, like the short term uptrend ribbon (held).

The candles at the hold of those two demand areas are solid demand-side showings, particularly if you blend the last two candles together (i.e., consider them as one candle with a common open, high, low and close – you get a long white candle that closes on its high = 💪).

I require more, however. More confirmation the demand-side has this one in hand. I require it because of the severity of the supply-side showing on 18-Dec.

So, I want to see a close at least above the 19168-20205 mid-point (check – yesterday’s close 19764 ✅). I’d also like to see a higher trough set to 19168 – we’re still waiting for that one…⏹️

Ideally, the icing on the cake is a close very close to the major point of supply at 20205 at a near-session high ⏹️. The cherry on top of the icing on top of the cake is a near-session high close above 20205 ⏹️.

I’m not going to see you for a while, so that’s the roadmap for confirming demand-side control over the break (ChartWatch and the Evening Wrap will return on 6-Jan).

The roadmap for confirming supply-side control is the setting of a lower peak to 20205. Particularly if this occurs with another substantial supply-side candle (i.e., long black body and or long upward pointing shadow).

Also, a close at a near-session low close to 19168 is a no-no and a close at a near-session low below 19168 is a major no-no.

That’s it for me and ChartWatch for the year. I trust it's been a profitable one following along, preferably from the point of view of building your wealth, but definitely from the point of view of building your knowledge about what kind of investor you are, about investing technique, and about how the markets work.

Have a safe and happy Christmas and New Year everyone, and I'll see you in 2025! 👋


Economy

Today

  • There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Wednesday

  • 00:20 USA Core Durable Goods Orders November (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m in October)

  • 02:00 USA New Home Sales November (666,000 forecast vs 610,000 in October)

Thursday

  • AUS, USA, UK & EUR Markets closed

Friday

  • 03:00 JPN Tokyo Core CPI December y/y (+2.5% p.a. forecast vs +2.2% p.a. in November)

  • AUS, UK, & EUR Market closed


Latest News


Interesting Movers

Trading higher

  • +12.9% EML Payments (EML) - No news today, rebounded somewhat from yesterday's plunge following Leadership Changes

  • +7.0% Arcadium Lithium (LTM) - Rio is on the verge of wrapping up the acquisition of the company with LTM shareholders officially accepting the takeover (see Form 8-K), so moves take LTM price closer to the relevant cash offer price

  • +5.3% Peninsula Energy (PEN) - Continued positive response to 19-Dec Commencement of Production at Lance Project, closed above the long-term downtrend ribbon

  • +5.0% Brainchip (BRN) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short-term uptrend, long-term trend is transitioning from down to up, appeared in today's ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📉

  • +4.8% Opthea (OPT) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing long-term uptrend, continues to bounce strongly off long-term uptrend ribbon 🔎📈

  • +4.7% Iperionx (IPX) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends, one of the most Featured stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list in 2024 🔎📉

  • +4.5% Genusplus Group (GNP) - Genus Awarded Contract for TasNetworks NWTD Project, rise is consistent with prevailing long-term uptrend 🔎📈

  • +3.9% Megaport (MP1) - Becoming a substantial holder (BlackRock Group)

  • +3.6% IDP Education (IEL) - No news, upgraded to hold from sell at Jefferies, but price target cut to $11.80 from $13.00

  • +3.4% Avita Medical (AVH) - AVITA Medical Announces FDA Approval of RECELL GO mini, rise is consistent with prevailing short-term uptrend, long-term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📉

  • +2.5% Kogan.Com (KGN) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short-term uptrend, long-term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📉

Trading lower

  • -5.2% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short-term downtrend, long-term trend is transitioning from up to down, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

  • -5.1% Lotus Resources (LOT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long-term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

  • -4.4% Appen (APX) - No news, short term uptrend is neutralised...🤔

  • -4.3% West African Resources (WAF) - No news, generally weaker ASX gold sector today on lower gold price overnight

  • -3.7% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - No news, ditto tough day for ASX gold stocks today…

  • -3.4% Bannerman Energy (BMN) - No news, but neither was there news for yesterday's mysterious gain, uranium price lower again overnight (see ChartWatch section above for full TA)

  • -3.2% Paladin Energy (PDN) - Paladin completes acquisition of Fission, but also ditto ASX uranium sector weakness, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long-term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

  • -3.0% Deep Yellow (DYL) - No news, ditto ASX uranium sector weakness, fall is consistent with prevailing short-term downtrend, long-term trend is transitioning from down to down, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

  • -3.0% Vault Minerals (VAU) - Becoming a substantial holder (State Street is a rumoured short seller)

  • -2.9% Emerald Resources (EMR) - No news, ditto ASX gold sector weakness, fall is consistent with prevailing short-term downtrend, long-term trend is transitioning from down to down, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉


Broker Notes

  • Emerald Resources (EMR)

    • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.00

  • Green Technology Metals (GT1)

    • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.20

  • IDP Education (IEL)

    • Upgraded to hold from sell at Jefferies; Price Target: $11.80 from $13.00

  • IGO (IGO)

    • Retained at sell at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.60

  • Mesoblast (MSB)

    • Downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $2.30 from $1.10


Scans

Top Gainers

Code Company Last % Chg
PPG Pro-Pac Packaging... $0.027 +35.00%
RML Resolution Minera... $0.014 +27.27%
GR8 Great Dirt Resour... $0.165 +26.92%
RON Ronin Resources Ltd $0.175 +25.00%
BUR Burley Minerals Ltd $0.073 +21.67%
View all top gainers

Top Fallers

Code Company Last % Chg
SBM ST Barbara Ltd $0.20 -34.43%
AU1 The Agency Group ... $0.02 -20.00%
EAX Energy Action Ltd $0.285 -17.39%
ANR Anatara Lifescien... $0.042 -16.00%
IMI Infinity Mining Ltd $0.011 -15.39%
View all top fallers

52 Week Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
BXN Bioxyne Ltd $0.026 +13.04%
ART Airtasker Ltd $0.405 +6.58%
MME Moneyme Ltd $0.18 +5.88%
JREG Jpmorgan GL Res E... $82.00 +5.48%
IPX Iperionx Ltd $5.08 +4.74%
View all 52 week highs

52 Week Lows

Code Company Last % Chg
CAZ Cazaly Resources Ltd $0.013 -13.33%
PR2 Piche Resources Ltd $0.079 -12.22%
FDR Finder Energy Hol... $0.039 -11.36%
RLF RLF Agtech Ltd $0.032 -11.11%
SCP Scalare Partners ... $0.155 -8.82%
View all 52 week lows

Near Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
PCI Perpetual Credit ... $1.175 +0.43%
WVOL Ishares MSCI Worl... $42.26 +0.84%
IPX Iperionx Ltd $4.85 +5.43%
GCI Gryphon Capital I... $2.07 +0.98%
VVLU Vanguard Global V... $73.68 +0.90%
View all near highs

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

Code Company Last % Chg
GRR Grange Resources Ltd $0.22 0.00%
FUEL Betashares Global... $6.08 +1.33%
SEK Seek Ltd $22.78 +1.97%
DUG DUG Technology Ltd $1.30 +1.17%
CU6 Clarity Pharmaceu... $4.22 -7.25%
View all RSI oversold

Written By

Carl Capolingua

Content Editor

Carl has over 30-year's investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.

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