Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, US market closed + Gold, copper and oil prices strengthen

In a nutshell:

• US markets were closed overnight to honour the death of former President Jimmy Carter

• Major US benchmark data for the overnight summary will refer to Wednesday's session (and no US sector or ETF tables)

• China continues to have an inflation problem and producer prices can't stop sinking

• Commodity prices experienced a solid uptick and copper prices are running hot so far in 2025

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 DAILY CHART

(Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• US market was closed in observance of a national day of mourning to honour former President Jimmy Carter

• US bond yields slightly ticked lower in a shortened session but still trading 1-10 bps off recent highs

• European markets finished higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.4% led by mining and healthcare stocks

• US dollar climbs for 3rd straight session (RT)

• Pound plummets to 14-month low, rattled by gilt market rout (RT)

STOCKS

• Shein aims for London IPO by mid-year (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed Bowman calls December rate cut “final step”, signals caution amid inflation risks (BAR)

• BoE’s Breeden backs rate cuts, says hard to know how quickly (RT)

• Bank of Mexico likely to consider larger rate cuts after headline inflation fell more than expected in December (RT)

ECONOMY

• Australia trade surplus soars to $7.08bn in November vs. $6.0bn forecasts and $5.6bn in the previous month as exports of metal ores and minerals soared

• China headline inflation at 0% year-on-year in December but producer prices down 2.3%, a 27th straight month of declines (CNBC)

• Eurozone retail sales up 1.2% year-on-year in November, down from 2.1% in the previous month as economy stagnates (RT)

• UN predicts world economic growth to remain at 2.8% in 2025 (RT)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 set to recoup yesterday's decline and attempt to push a one-month high

• Volumes may be light since there was no US lead and newsflow remains slow

• Uptick in overnight commodity prices, slight drop in yields and higher European markets presents favourable backdrop for local markets on Friday

• New Zealand retailer Briscoe says "we are yet to see any marked improvement in consumer confidence ... December trading was still under anticipated levels" (BGP)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Commodities: Not a whole lot happened overnight but there was a relatively broad-based uptick in commodity prices. Gold up 0.3% to highest since 13 December 2024. Brent crude up 1.3% to US$77.1/lb, highest since 14 October 2024. Copper rallied another 1.1% to US$4.32/lb – It's now up 7.0% in the last six sessions to a fresh two-month high.

BROKER MOVES

We're still smoothing out some gaps in our broker data. Thanks for hanging in there while we get everything sorted.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 10 Jan: None

• Mon 13 – Tue 14 Jan: None

• Wed 15 Jan: Tower (TWR) – 4.07%

• Thu 16 – Fri 17 Jan: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: None

• Listing: None

• Earnings: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 pm: Canada Unemployment Rate (Dec)

• 11:30 pm: US Non Farm Payrolls (Dec)

• 1:00 am: US Consumer Confidence (Jan)