Evening Wrap: ASX 200 gives up early gains as iron ore stocks and big ANZ sell off weigh, GOR takeover ignites gold

Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.9%) stocks got a healthy boost today as investors cheered (or just blindly followed) gains on the NASDAQ Composite overnight.

In Resources (XJR) (-0.32%), the gold rally made things appear better than they actually were. Weaker lithium and uranium stocks were a feature, but most of the drag came from the major iron ore miners as media reports surfaced several major Chinese steel producers had applied production cuts in anticipation of the imminent release of official cuts by Beijing.

Elsewhere, a mysterious fall in ANZ Group (ANZ) (-3.2%) that started at exactly 2pm AEDT also weighed on the market.

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the NASDAQ Composite, S&P/ASX 200, and Copper in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 5.6 points higher at 7,942.5, 0.65% from its session high and just 0.07% from its low. Lousy 👎. Some comfort, at least, comes in the fact that across the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a modest 160 to 118 (but this stat also faded steadily through the day!).

Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.9%) stocks got a healthy boost today as investors cheered (or just blindly followed) gains on the NASDAQ Composite overnight. Several rather nasty developing downtrends reversed today among sector-heavyweights Life360 (ASX: 360) (+5.3%), Wisetech Global (ASX: WTC) (+3.8%), and Xero (ASX: XRO) (+1.3%), but even those in well-established long term downtrends like in Nuix (ASX: NXL) (+2.2%), and Audinate Group (ASX: AD8) (+1.5%) got a bump.

On that last point, "absolutely horrific downtrends bouncing sharply today for seemingly little reason" – there were several – many of which are highlighted in the Interesting Moves section, below. There was just a tad of short covering about today…methinks 🤔!

Health Care (XHJ) (+0.98%) and Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (+0.42%) also logged decent gains, as once again, many of the worst of the Valentine’s Day correction saw some bargain hunting (or short covering) come in. CSL (ASX: CSL) (+1.4%) and Resmed Inc (ASX: RMD) (+1.5%) were notable in Healthcare, while Healthco Healthcare and Wellness Reit (ASX: HCW) (+2.8%) and Lifestyle Communities (ASX: LIC) (+2.8%) were notable in REITs.

Gold (XGD) sub-index (+0.39%) bounced, this time without the help of a commensurate rally in the gold price, as international major Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI) (-4.8%) launched a bid for Gold Road Resources (ASX: GOR) (+13.9%). GOR management have so far rebuffed the $2.27 per share plus cash offer.

At the other end of the spectrum, supermarket operator Woolworths Group (ASX: WOW) (-1.8%) continued to drag on Consumer Staples (XSJ) (-0.86%), and another big drop in James Hardie Industries (ASX: JHX) (-5.0%) post its tilt at a US building products company took points off the Materials (XMJ) (-0.61%) sector.

In Resources (XJR) (-0.32%) more generally, the gold rally made things appear better than they actually were. Weaker lithium and uranium stocks were a feature, but most of the drag came from the major iron ore miners as media reports surfaced several major Chinese steel producers had applied production cuts in anticipation of the imminent release of official cuts by Beijing.

BHP Group (ASX: BHP) (-0.71%), Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) (-0.27%), Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN) (1.0%), and Fortescue (ASX: FMG) (1.3%) were each casualties to some degree.

Elsewhere, a mysterious fall in ANZ Group (ASX: ANZ) (-3.2%) that started at exactly 2pm AEDT also weighed on the market. If you know what happened – shoot me an email (and don't say there was more supply than demand, smarty pants 😁!)

ANZ shares took a mysterious turn for the worse at exactly 2pm AEDT...🤔

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

Gap and run, plenty of fun! 💪 (click here for full size image)

Lloyd would be happy – it might have only been a small chance – but we finally have two decent demand-side candles in a row. It’s in keeping with my hypothesis that the low in the Comp is in, and it’s a welcome change from last week’s indecision.

The Comp is back! More specifically, it’s back in the long term trend ribbon, and rather than get too far ahead of ourselves, we should remember this usually means potential supply. But, as I say here often: A zone of potential supply is just that – potential – until we see the candles there.

If we keep logging strong demand-side showings like last night’s candle, with its super-impressive gap-and-run plus high session close – then it will demonstrate a telling lack of follow through supply from those who perpetuated the correction. It will also demonstrate there’s plenty of demand moving back in to try and buy the dip.

In this scenario, we could find ourselves back above the long term trend ribbon in no time – and after a subsequent higher trough / confirmation of demand-side control – back in the old bull market 📈.

Fingers crossed 🤞.

The alternative is black instead of white candle bodies, and of long upward pointing shadows indicating where supply is lurking in the system – waiting to offload into this fledgling rally. In this scenario, many on the demand-side may lose heart and withdraw from the market in anticipation they can buy at much lower prices down the track.

Similarly, the rest of the supply-side may grow more desperate, not wanting to be the last to sell – and certainly not at those anticipated much lower prices down the track.

Key levels: 18605 is shaping more as the key point of supply. Partially because of the historical point of supply there (i.e., a peak), but mainly because it happens to coincide with the top of the confluence of the short and long term trend ribbons. A close above 18605 would be very constructive for the bulls.

On the downside, there’s 17238 – obviously. As I have said before, it’s the delineator between bull and bear in my opinion – we don’t want to close below it.

Before that, I note that last night’s gap was caused by a major shift in thinking among demand and supply participants – so much so that the entire demand-supply environment agreed prices should be much higher, instantly.

I suggest that whatever thinking that created this positive attitude will be null and void if we close with a black candle below the bottom of that gap.

So, that’s the updated Comp playbook.

In practice, though, as suggested yesterday, for me last night’s move doesn’t change a great deal. I continue to operate at my most conservative risk setting, because I’m still unable to look at the chart above and nonchalantly call – ST Up/ LT Up…equals demand-side control.

But it does mean I can operate more confidently at the upper limit of my reduced risk setting.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

What about us, it isn't fair, we've had enough now we want our share! 🎤🎶 (click here for full size image)

That’s the good news.

Now for the bad news – or disappointing news, anyway.

The Americans took everything that’s going on in the world of economics and beyond and manufactured that wonderful gap-and-run, high close, white candle ⬜🕯️💪.

And look what we did with it.

Upward pointing shadow...lousy low close. Just shameful! 🤦

A bit of a failure to launch today, demonstrative of the weaker perceived underlying fundamental backdrop for Aussie stocks compared to US stocks – and confirmation we are not out of the correction just yet.

Looking at today’s candle, it also seems to confirm that the short/long term trend ribbon confluence may be a tough dynamic supply nut to crack – hey at least the Comp confidently launched into its corresponding zone last night!

So, a similar playbook here compared to the Comp, but rather than looking forward to a break of the dynamic supply zone, I suggest we’d be happy to just take a closer and more confidence look at it.

Perhaps over the next few sessions…fingers crossed again! 🤞

High Grade Copper Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Supply found 🎯 (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered copper was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 20 March.

In that update, we were tracking the steady ascent of the copper price – yet to encounter a pocket of excess supply.

Well, it looks like we found one. Last night’s long upward pointing shadow points to at least some excess supply in the system (Remember: That last, small white candle is today's candle – it is live – so we must discount it!).

One bearish candle...That’s it! That’s the top! Time to bail out!!! 😱

You will NOT hear me say 🙊.

That’s not how trend following works! Yes, we have an indication the prevailing environment of excess demand has found some supply to meet it – but when you think about it – doesn’t this imply at least a period of equilibrium first? ⚖️🤔

It does. There’s always equilibrium somewhere between the transition of demand-side to supply-side control – and we may have just seen the first candle of it.

But what then comes next? There are three options: 1. More equilibrium; 2. Demand-side control is resumed; 3. Supply-side control is assumed.

The candles will guide us as to which of the three options we’re most likely to move into. For now, we simply note that we’ve found some supply, and the price is more likely to at least go sideways while the market figures out what it wants to do next.

The demand-side will be watching to see how much supply enters the market from here – too much and it will lose confidence and back away – increasing the supply-side’s impact in the process.

The supply-side will be watching to see how much demand hangs around the market from here – too much and it will grow more confident selling here is premature – and it will switch to holding on for more.

There are a few other permutations, and I’ll let you figure those. For now, all we have to remember is:

• Black-bodied candles and or upward pointing shadows = Fingerprints of Supply (longer = stronger)

• White-bodied candles and or downward pointing shadows = Fingerprints of Demand (longer = stronger).

Additionally, we’d ideally like to see:

• The price NOT close below points of demand like 5.027, and more importantly, at 4.851-4.906 / the short term uptrend ribbon. A close below the latter would terminate the prevailing short term uptrend.

• NOT see the formation of lower peaks here.

• DO want to see a close above Monday’s upward pointing shadow high of 5.1845 – as it would indicate the latent supply in the system up there has been consumed.

• DO want to see the short term uptrend ribbon continue to rise and act as a zone of dynamic demand.

Which of those outcomes is up to the market. It always is. We’re just passengers.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Tuesday

• 22:00 USA CB Consumer Confidence March (94.2 forecast vs 98.3 in February)

• 22:00 USA New Home Sales February (682,000 forecast vs 657,000 in January)

Wednesday

• 08:30 AUS Consumer Price Index (CPI) (+2.5% p.a. previous)

• 20:30 USA Core Durable Goods Orders February (+0.4% m/m forecast vs 0.0% m/m in January)

Thursday

• 20:30 USA Fina GDP December Quarter (+2.4% p.a. forecast vs +2.3% p.a. in September quarters)

Friday

• 20:30 USA Core PCE Price Index February (+0.3% m/m and 2.7% p.a. forecast vs +0.3% m/m and 2.6% p.a. in January)

• 20:30 USA Personal Income February (+0.4% m/m forecast vs +0.9% m/m in January)

• 20:30 USA Personal Spending February (+0.6% m/m forecast vs -0.2% m/m in January)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +13.9% Gold Road Resources (GOR) - Receipt and Rejection of NBIO from Gold Fields, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.8% Nexgen Energy (NXG) - NXG Announces Best Ever Discovery-Phase Intercept at Rook I.

• +5.6% Australian Finance Group (AFG) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +5.3% Life360 (360) - No news, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• +4.8% Redox (RDX) - No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +3.9% Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV) - No news since 24-Mar 2025 American Academy of Dermatology Annual Meeting, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +3.8% Wisetech Global (WTC) - No news, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today following the big rally in the NASDAQ on Monday, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +3.8% Corporate Travel Management (CTD) - No news, bounced perfectly from long term uptrend ribbon! 🔎📈

• +3.7% PWR Holdings (PWH) - No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +3.6% Platinum Asset Management (PTM) - No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +3.6% Vulcan Steel (VSL) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +3.0% McMillan Shakespeare (MMS) - No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +3.0% Imugene (IMU) - No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +2.8% Healthco Healthcare and Wellness Reit (HCW) - March 2025 Distribution, general strength across the broader Real Estate sector today, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +2.7% Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) - No news since 20-Mar Arafura signs NdPr sales agreement with Traxys Europe, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +2.6% Macquarie Group (MQG) - No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +2.5% Spark New Zealand (SPK) - SPH Notice - BlackRock, Inc. and related bodies corporate (increase), bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

Trading lower

• -7.1% Droneshield (DRO) - No news, pullback from recent rally in full force now... 🤔.

• -5.1% Lotus Resources (LOT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -5.0% James Hardie Industries (JHX) - No news since 24-Mar James Hardie and AZEK to Combine, downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie and price target to $44.00 from $65.00 (several other large price target cuts at the other brokers also, see Broker Moves for more info), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.5% Webjet (WJL) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.4% Atlas Arteria (ALX) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -3.8% Liontown Resources (LTR) - No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.8% Weebit Nano (WBT) - Investor Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.7% HMC Capital (HMC) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.7% Nanosonics (NAN) - No news since 20-Mar Nanosonics Receives FDA De Novo Clearance for CORIS, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -3.6% Data#3 (DTL) - Change of Director's Interest Notice (on market sale of 6,796 shares for a consideration of $50,596).

• -3.6% New Hope Corporation (NHC) - Becoming a substantial holder from MUFG and Becoming a substantial holder from MS (major fund shenanigans with at least some short selling activity likely there for Morgan Stanley), downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi and price target cut to $4.20 from $5.30, plus general weakness across the broader Coal sector today as coal prices fell to new multi-year lows yesterday, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.5% Bellevue Gold (BGL) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, added to ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list yesterday 🔎📉

• -3.2% Ioneer (INR) - No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.2% ANZ Group (ANZ) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• -3.2% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.1% Maas Group (MGH) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• -3.0% Whitehaven Coal (WHC) - No news, general weakness across the broader Coal sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

• Amplitude Energy (AEL)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $0.270 from $0.260

• Ampol (ALD)

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $30.50

• Anteris Technologies (AVR)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $15.00

• Boss Energy (BOE)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.70 from $4.80

• Collins Foods (CKF)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.38

• Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY)

  • Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $3.20

• Cygnus Metals (CY5)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.300

• Catalyst Metals (CYL)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.50 from $4.45

• Deterra Royalties (DRR)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.50

• Fortescue (FMG)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $17.50 from $20.00

• Gold Road Resources (GOR)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $3.05 from $2.90

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.75

  • Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $2.60

• Helia Group (HLI)

  • Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.55 from $4.20

• Iluka Resources (ILU)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.10 from $5.60

• James Hardie Industries (JHX)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $56.00

  • Upgraded to overweight from neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $45.00 from $53.50

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $45.50 from $58.50

  • Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $44.00 from $65.00

  • Upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $55.00

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $54.00 from $60.00

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $52.00

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $60.00

• Lendlease Group (LLC)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.12 from $7.16

• Lotus Resources (LOT)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.350

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $28.00 from $30.00

• Macquarie Group (MQG)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $224.00 from $253.00

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $245.00

• Medical Developments International (MVP)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.710 from $1.600

• New Hope Corporation (NHC)

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.20 from $5.30

• National Storage Reit (NSR)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $2.49 from $2.59

• Opthea (OPT)

  • Downgraded to underperform from buy at Jefferies; Price Target: US$1.00 from US$8.00

• Paladin Energy (PDN)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $9.60

• Premier Investments (PMV)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $29.00 from $30.00

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $22.55 from $22.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $29.50 from $32.00

• Qube (QUB)

  • Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $4.35

• Steadfast Group (SDF)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.50

• Synlait Milk (SM1)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.920 from $0.900

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: NZ$0.47 from NZ$0.44

• Stanmore Resources (SMR)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.10 from $3.40

• Washington H Soul Pattinson & Company (SOL)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $36.20 from $36.30

• The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.60

Scans