Evening Wrap: ASX 200 gains on ANZ, CBA, NAB and WBC, as Lithium stocks get clobbered on CATL restart news

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 26.9 points higher, up 0.31%.

Lithium stocks got clobbered today as the lithium price tanked on a media report that major Chinese battery producer CATL is set to recommence production at its Jianxiawo lithium mine sooner than expected. It was the closure of the very same mine that helped sparked the massive June-August rally that stoked hopes that the long lithium bear market is over... That's not looking like such a strong proposition right now (we're talking substantial double-digit declines for ASX lithium majors).

Elsewhere, stronger banking, telecommunications, and real estate stocks helped steady the ship for the ASX 200, which limped away with an unconvincing gain...

To make sense of all the above, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P/ASX 200, and Lithium in today's ChartWatch.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 26.9 points higher at 8,830.4, 0.46% from its session low and just 0.08% from its high. Despite the appearance of strength in the benchmark index, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by 120 to 148.

That ASX 200 print vs market breadth kinda says it all: Good, far from great.

The best sectors had a defensive tinge to them, Financials (XFJ) (+1.3%) and Telco Services (XTJ) (+0.9%). Then bond proxy Real Estate (XPJ) (+0.6%), and largely just tracking the Comp's move, Information Tech (XIJ) (+0.4%). It fell away from there.

Bringing up the rear, was the stuff that you'd ordinarily think would do well when the global economy is booming. So, Resources (XJR) (-1.5%) and Energy (XEJ) (-0.1%).

You know the drill... Fund managers shifting between themes, sectors, and the net result for the Old Tin Pot turns out to be very little in the end.

Hey, if you're not really seeking much risk right now, but the spreadsheet says you still have to buy $X billion to place the cash that rolled in overnight from superannuation guarantee... Well perhaps it's best to buy something big, safe, and liquid.

Add in the fact that you probably want to steer clear of Resources today, what, because of some nasty Chinese economic data (see Economy section below), plus the lithium price blew up again... Then here's your shopping list: ANZ Group (ANZ) (+1.5%), Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) (+1.5%), National Australia Bank (NAB) (+1.5%), Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC) (+1.7%), Telstra (TLS) (1.7%), Woolworths (WOW) (+1.1%).

It ain't rocket science – and there's about 99% of your ASX 200 gain! 🚀

Elsewhere, Gold (XGD) (-0.4%) lagged, but is still sitting pretty compared to where it's come from over the last few weeks. Lithium on the other hand, got creamed 🥊.

We're talking big double digit falls for the likes of Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (-17.3%), Liontown Resources (LTR) (-18.4%), and IGO (IGO) (-14.0%). Mineral Resources (MIN) (-6.3%) still got clobbered, but it dodged much of the carnage due to its iron ore exposure.

Comprehensive lithium TA in ChartWatch below...👇

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Nasdaq Composite Index chart (click here for full size image)

1. Too expensive / overvalued / 1,000,000 times historical/forward/next century’s earnings!!!

2. Too many standard deviations from the mean!

3. Too concentrated / it's just seven stocks

4. All dumb money / passive fund managers are stupid / mum and dad investors are stupid

5. It's irrational exuberance / it's driven by irrational FOMO... It's IRRATIONALLLLL!!!!

6. It’s another bubble… and it’s sure to pop 💥!

7. It's all due to unrealistic assumptions about AI... It will end in tears 😭!

8. It’s just like it was in dot.com in 2001, or GFC in 2009, or in 1987, or in 1929…

9. It can’t keep going up forever!

10. It’s crazy, markets shouldn’t behave like this!

Did I miss anything out? Please email me your favourite reason why a market commentator has shouted down this or any other bull market which they just can’t quite get their head around.

But, as I learned a very long time ago (through devastating losses and associated pain), it doesn’t matter what one person thinks – and it really, really doesn’t matter if that “one person” happens to be YOU 🫵.

It only matters what “everyone else” thinks = The Market 💯.

In situations like this, where stocks have made a new high in the face of a wall of doubt and scathing criticism from the experts… a saying that my very wise grandmother told me when I was young comes to mind. I can’t quite remember the context anymore, but it’s something that has stuck with me for the rest of my life and has become invaluable to my investing philosophy:

You can’t fart against thunder 💨

You can try…but it rarely ends well! 🌩️

For me, it just means: Don't fight the trend, because if you do, you'll come off second best! 🤕

Yet, here’s the kicker: At some point we all know the market is going to tank. 10%, 20%, 30%... it’s just a matter of how much and when.

But it could go up another 10%, 20%, 30% or more before it does. Who knows? 🤷

I certainly don't – because I can't tell the future... and it’s all kind of irrelevant because:

1. We have a system for identifying when control of price is transitioning from demand-side (i.e., bull market) to supply-side (i.e., bear market) ✅

2. We don’t care if we buy at the top – because we understand that as trend followers this is 100% going to happen at some stage ✅

3. We have a system for managing our risk exposure through any trend transition ✅

Here’s another “but”:

"But" consider how frightening a rampant bull market must be for those who don’t possess the ✅✅✅ items above?

I get it: Super scary! 😱

The good news is: That’s not you anymore – because you hang out here 5 nights a week! 😉

Okay, I better do some analysis on the Comp now... Firstly, can I say how grossly overvalued it is… Hahaha JK! 😁

Nope, you cannot even begin to imagine just how little I care about the valuation of the Comp – or any stock that trades within it. What I do care about are trends, price action, and candles.

And for the Comp, I can’t fault those.

So it’s really this simple for me today, 10 September 2025, as it is most days = Stay the course: FRP.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)

A little bit more Golden Le Creuset and less Old Tin Pot today… as in, hardly shooting the lights out – but I think we’ll all happily take it!

What did I say yesterday? 🤔

To be back in the clear here… to get back to a bubbling hot Golden Le Creuset…🔥 We want white candles – lots of them – and big ones. Plus, a quick close back above 8881 – and if I can add one more request – ideally a close back above the high of “that candle”, i.e., last Wed’s long black supply-side control wash out 👎.

Today’s a decent start, but I remain yet to be convinced. And if you’re wondering why the Comp looks so good / is so strong – yet we at the same time don’t – well anyone who’s suffered day in day out with the Old Tin Pot for any length of time understands: That’s just the way it is… 😟

No change to standing key points of demand (PODs) or points of supply (POSs):

• PODs: 8731; 8616-8640; long term uptrend ribbon

• POSs: 8881; 8991; 9055; short term trend ribbon

No change to my standing personal portfolio risk management setting: 2/3RP.

Lithium Carbonate Futures (Benchmark month, back-adjusted) GFEX

An interesting chart (click here for full size image)

In a post on X yesterday, I called the Jul-Aug lithium bull market “cooked” 🍳.

It’s a great way to describe a trend reversal that tried… came so close to succeeding… and then failed 😭.

"Disappointing" is the wrong word to describe what happened here – I couldn’t care less where the price of lithium or any squiggly line on a chart goes – they’re all just probabilistic outcomes to me…

But can I say, lithium’s attempt and failure of a major trend reversal is “Frustrating”. It’s frustrating that rally was so juiced by speculators (probably also short coverering), that it progressed so far and ticked so many boxes towards a long term trend change that I had to commit some risk.

Just when I think the trend has changed... it dips back down again!!!

I am referring to several ASX lithium stocks that appeared in the Uptrends Scan Lists of ChartWatch ASX Scans. With today’s move, most of those are back to flat on the risk front (only MIN is hanging in there).

Frustrating. Cop it. Move on.

Because I know that if I look at enough charts, then I am one hundred percent going to cop these: False starts… false dawns… fake outs.

Many times, I know I’m going to cop it – as in, I know I'm going to get sucked in and it's not going to work out. This is one of those times!

But that type of thinking would assume I know the future – and I don’t. So, I must commit risk if my system tells me to do so. I must follow my system. There is no negotiation on that point.

As for lithium, it was in our last update on 2 Sep (yes, 8 days before today’s drop) that I called:

“But the last three subsequent candles paint a damning picture – the supply-side is back in control of the price here.

The pullback from the 90100 peak is just too severe and just too consistent – too one way – for my liking. It smacks of a motivated supply side, bulldozing into anything that resembles demand-side engagement.”

I also noted my view that supply remained the biggest problem for lithium: Price action and volume showed us that throughout the entire rally, it never went away.

Eventually, the demand-side flamed out (or were curbed by GFEX restrictions), and the motivation of the supply-side ensured prices had to fall.

And fall they have. I now note:

1. The price did not bounce at the long term trend ribbon – a critical requirement for me to officially call the start of a new bull market, but rather it stalled, and then sliced through it ❌

2. After dipping below the long term trend ribbon, the price tried to rally back above it, but failed – a failure punctuated by two tell-tale upward pointing shadows on 5 & 8 Aug ❌

3. Today’s decline seals the deal in terms of the long term trend ribbon resuming its role as acting as a zone of dynamic excess supply, and given the prevalence of falling peaks and falling troughs (i.e., supply reinforcement and demand removal), and a resumed predominance of supply-side candles (i.e., black bodied and or upward pointing shadows), the only conclusion can be: Short and long term supply-side control ❌

I also pointed out on 2 Sep, that calling whether the previous long term downtrend is back in play is still too early to call. I’d need to see a decisive close below 67040 for that. More likely, and this is just my gut hunch here – we are set for a protracted period of "bump along the bottom" phase.

And that likely means more Frustration ahead!

I would love nothing more to see the price of lithium surge again – hey, nobody loves a great bull run more than me – and perhaps it will… it just doesn’t look like this rally is “the one”.

Economy

Today

• 11:30 CHN Inflation data August

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): -0.4% p.a. vs -0.2% p.a. forecast and +0.0% p.a. in July

  • Producer Price Index (PPI): -2.9% p.a. as forecast vs -3.6% p.a. in July

  • View: CPI weaker = Another weak sign for the Chinese economy. Deflation is harder to deal with (negative impact on consumption and investment) than inflation. So, on balance, bad news here. But the silver lining is potentially it gives the PBOC greater scope for stimulus.

Later this week

Wednesday

• 22:30 USA Core PPI August (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.9% m/m in July)

Thursday

• 22:15 EUR European Central Bank (ECB) meeting

  • Main Refinancing Rate: No change at 2.15% p.a.

  • Monetary Policy Statement & Press Conference (at 22:45)

• 22:30 USA Core CPI August (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.3% m/m in July)

Friday

• 00:00 USA 30-year Bond Auction

Saturday

• 00:00 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations September

  • Consumer Sentiment: 58.2 forecast unchanged from August

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +34.1% Locksley Resources (LKY) - Locksley Advances Antimony Supply Strategy, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +13.1% Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL) - Investor Webinar - Syerston Mineral Resource Update, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +12.9% Minerals 260 (MI6) - Continued positive response to 09-Sep High-Grade Intercepts Expand Bullabulling Drill Program, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +11.1% Gateway Mining (GML) - No news since 09-Sep Gravity Inversion Defines Major Intrusions at Key Prospects, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +11.1% Dorsavi (DVL) - Multi-year sales agreement with US Physical Therapy Network, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +11.1% St George Mining (SGQ) - US Strategic Alliance For Araxa Project Rare Earths, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.4% Felix Gold (FXG) - No news since 08-Sep Senior US Federal Officials at Treasure Creek Project, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.3% Imugene (IMU) - No news 🤔, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +8.6% LGI (LGI) - No news 🤔.

• +8.5% Artrya (AYA) - No news since 09-Sep Successful A$75 million placement and launch of SPP, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -18.5% Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -18.4% Liontown Resources (LTR) – No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today.

• -17.3% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) – No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today.

• -16.9% Kaili Resources (KLR) – Half Yearly Report and Accounts, today's move is consistent with recent volatility.

• -14.2% Iluka Resources (ILU) – Mineral sands - production suspension at Cataby and SR2, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• -14.0% IGO (IGO) – No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today.

• -11.9% Wildcat Resources (WC8) – No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today.

Broker Moves

Ardent Leisure Group (ALG)

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $20.95

ALS (ALQ)

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $20.95 from $17.25

Amcor Plc (AMC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.46 from $18.14

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $32.50 from $29.50

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $31.00 from $30.00

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $29.70 from $29.30

• Upgraded to trim from sell at Morgans; Price Target: $29.24 from $26.84

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $30.00 from $27.50

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $11.00 from $10.50

Ballard Mining (BM1)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.80

Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at Citi; Price Target: $6.60 from $6.00

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.92

Breville Group (BRG)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $39.80

BlueScope Steel (BSL)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $25.45 from $29.05

Brambles (BXB)

• Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $25.20 from $24.60

Catapult Sports (CAT)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.00

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $130.00 from $110.00

Cobram Estate Olives (CBO)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.44 from $3.22

Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $3.75 from $3.25

Capricorn Metals (CMM)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $13.10

Centuria Office REIT (COF)

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $1.20 from $1.14

Coles Group (COL)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $25.00 from $23.50

Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY)

• Upgraded to outperform from unknown at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.50

Dicker Data (DDR)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $10.20

Digico Infrastructure REIT (DGT)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $4.85 from $5.10

Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $19.00 from $22.00

Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $3.00

Dexus Industria REIT (DXI)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $3.00

Endeavour Group (EDV)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.25

Eureka Group Holdings (EGH)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.85

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $10.55

GBM Resources (GBZ)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.08

Garda Diversified Property Fund (GDF)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $1.40

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at hold at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $5.40

GWA Group (GWA)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.05 from $3.15

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $26.50 from $31.00

HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $0.75

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $1.46 from $1.35

HMC Capital (HMC)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $4.85 from $4.20

Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $7.75 from $5.25

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.75

IDP Education (IEL)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.80

JB Hi-Fi (JBH)

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; Price Target: $112.00 from $109.00

Judo Capital Holdings (JDO)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.00 from $1.85

Jumbo Interactive (JIN)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $11.50 from $11.20

MA Financial Group (MAF)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $10.55

MAAS Group Holdings (MGH)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.10

Minerals 260 (MI6)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.34

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.38 from $0.35

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $30.00

Monadelphous Group (MND)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $22.17

Megaport (MP1)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $16.30 from $15.45

National Australia Bank (NAB)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $36.00 from $31.50

Nanosonics (NAN)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $5.00 from $5.50

NRW Holdings (NWH)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.45

NEXTDC (NXT)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $21.45

Orora (ORA)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.40 from $2.36

Pantoro Gold (PNR)

• Retained at sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.40

Perenti (PRN)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.65

Qantas Airways (QAN)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $12.00

Reece (REH)

• Downgraded to underperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.10 from $14.90

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.30

Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.30

SGH (SGH)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $53.20 from $59.20

Sims (SGM)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.70 from $17.40

Select Harvests (SHV)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.30

Superloop (SLC)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.90

Santana Minerals (SMI)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.40

Service Stream (SSM)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.42

Super Retail Group (SUL)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $18.25 from $14.00

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $23.15

Technology One (TNE)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $42.20

Trajan Group Holdings (TRJ)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.25 from $1.46

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $10.00

Universal Store Holdings (UNI)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $10.50 from $10.30

Ventia Services Group (VNT)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.55

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at Citi; Price Target: $36.50 from $29.75

WEB Travel Group (WEB)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.75

Wesfarmers (WES)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $92.00 from $84.00

Worley (WOR)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.00

Woolworths Group (WOW)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $30.00 from $32.00

Waypoint REIT (WPR)

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $2.70 from $2.50

Scans