Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, Oracle surges on earnings beat + S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow at all-time highs

ASX 200 futures are down 4pts (-0.03%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow all hit fresh all-time highs

• However, breadth was negative and the Equal-weight S&P 500 was negative

• Oracle smashed earnings expectations, shares up over 20% in after hours, making Larry Ellison the second richest person in the world

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gapped up, trended higher to close at best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow all closing at record all-time highs

• Despite record setting session, breadth was negative and Equal-weight S&P 500 finished negative (-0.31%)

• Today’s big story – Annual US payrolls revision was more negative than expected (down ~991k) but seen as a positive driver for Fed rate cut expectations and no real shift in recession expectations

• Global bonds enter bull market, with Bloomberg's index up over 20% since 2022 (BBG)

• France's borrowing costs surpass Italy's for the first time, reflecting investor concerns over fiscal concerns (BBG)

STOCKS

• Oracle shares surge more than 20% after hours, Q1 earnings crush expectations, significant increase in bookings and aggressive outlook for cloud infrastructure business (BBG)

• Apple debuts super thin iPhone Air, iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Pro (TC)

• JPMorgan expects its Q3 investment banking revenue to grow in low double digits (YF)

• Citigroup seeing good momentum across all investment-banking products (BBG)

• Bosch expects competitive pressure in the sector to continue next year (RT)

• Microsoft signs ~$20bn deal with Nebius to supply AI computing power for next five years (BBG)

• Dell CFO Yvonne McGill resigns after nearly 30 years, company reaffirms guidance (RT)

• Lachlan Murdoch to control a new family trust worth $3.3bn, maintaining News Corp and Fox Corp conservative slant (AX)

• Major oil and gas companies cutting back on workers, costs and investments with low crude prices expected to persist (FT)

• Anglo American nears deal to acquire Teck Resources, valuing company at ~$20bn (FT)

TARIFFS

• South Korea holding trade talks with US, differences remain over massive investment pledge (YH)

• US tariffs on Japanese goods, including cars, to be lowered by 16-Sep (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• BOJ officials signal possible rate hike this year, despite political instability (BBG)

• Fed seen on track for three rate cuts this year after BLS report (YF)

ECONOMY

• US annual revision to nonfarm payrolls was revised down by ~991,000 (BLS)

• Lumber prices are declining, signalling broader economic concerns as mills reduce output amid tariff uncertainty (WSJ)

• Taiwan's exports hit a record $58.5bn in August, growing 34.1% despite new US tariffs (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Catalyst Metals to replace Brickworks in the S&P/ASX 200 Index, effective prior to open on 16-Sep (CYL)

• Brookfield offloads $527m shares in Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure, at $4.05 per share or a 6.8% discount to last close (AFR) 

• Iluka Resources suspends production at Cataby mine and SR1 in WA, reflecting subdued demand for mineral sands (ILU)

• Ramelius Resources provides update on Dalgaranga (Never Never and Pepper deposits), integration study will be at the PFS level and on-track to be delivered in the December quarter (RMS)

• Woolworths testing buyer interest, with article speculating that Best and Less, Biscoes and Anchorage Partners could be prospective buyers (The Aus)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Tech: Oracle crushed earnings expectations, some aggressive guidance on cloud infrastructure earnings ($18bn in FY26, soaring to $144bn by FY30). Could drive some positive flow for the local tech sector and data centre stocks.

• Lithium: Lithium stocks tanked overnight after reports that CATL is in discussions to resume operations at its Jianxiawo lithium mine. Sources say applications for the mining and extraction licenses are progressing faster than expected. Chinese lithium carbonate futures tanked 2.6% on Tuesday.

BROKER MOVES

• Bank of Queensland upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target up to $6.60 from $6.00 (CITI)

• Judo Capital upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $2.00 from $1.85 (CITI)

• Westpac upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target up to $36.50 from $29.75 (CITI)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 10 Sep: Adairs (ADH) – $0.04, Brambles (BXB) – $0.32, CUE Energy Resources (CUE) – $0.005, EVT (EVT) – $0.22, Echelon Resources (ECH) – $0.006, Glennon Small Companies (GC1) – $0.02, Idp Education (IEL) – $0.05, Kip Mcgrath Education Centres (KME) – $0.005, LGI (LGI) – $0.013, Medibank Private (MPL) – $0.102, Naos Ex-50 Opportunities Company (NAC) – $0.015, Naos Small Cap Opportunities Company (NSC) – $0.013, Perpetual Equity Investment Company (PIC) – $0.04, Regis Resources (RRL) – $0.05, Summerset Group Holdings (SNZ) – $0.087

• Thu 11 Sep: Air New Zealand (AIZ) – $0.01, Austin Engineering (ANG) – $0.009, Bhagwan Marine (BWN) – $0.005, Breville Group (BRG) – $0.19, Comms Group (CCG) – $0.001, Cti Logistics (CLX) – $0.055, Joyce Corporation (JYC) – $0.17, Kogan.com (KGN) – $0.07, Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS) – $0.77, NZME (NZM) – $0.027, Navigator Global Investments (NGI) – $0.047, Pepper Money (PPM) – $0.064, Perpetual (PPT) – $0.54, Westgold Resources (WGX) – $0.03, XRF Scientific (XRF) – $0.045

• Fri 12 Sep: Ariadne Australia (ARA) – $0.005, CAR Group (CAR) – $0.415, Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY) – $0.032, Experience Co (EXP) – $0.003, G8 Education (GEM) – $0.02, Wisetech Global (WTC) – $0.119

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: APA Group (APA), Reef Casino Trust (RCT), Waypoint REIT (WPR)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: Ariana Resources (AA2) at 12:00 pm

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: China Inflation (Aug)

• 10:30 pm: US Producer Price Index (Aug)