Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to slip, Nasdaq ekes out all-time high, Gold prices hit yet another record high

ASX 200 futures are down 27pts (-0.30%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks slightly higher, though the Nasdaq still managed to eke out a record high

• Gold prices continue to soar, sitting record highs of over US$3,600/oz

• Markets remain choppy, ahead of US CPI data later this week and plenty of political volatility (Japan PM resignation, potential US government shutdown and France PM confidence vote)

• Note: The Live Blog is not running today

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher but off best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks traded in a relatively narrow range to close slightly higher but off best levels

• Nasdaq still hit a record high, though Big Tech mixed, largely driven by Broadcom’s post earnings rally, up 3.2% 

• No big directional drivers at play as markets waits for August inflation data later this week, with analysts expecting core inflation to stay unchanged at 3.1% year-on-year

• Markets likely to remain choppy as bullish and bearish narratives collide – near-term Fed easing, favourable earnings revisions, corporate buybacks and solid macro momentum vs. sticky inflation, tariff uncertainty, seasonal headwinds, stretched positioning, upward pressure on long-term yields and global political uncertainty

• September historically the worst month for US equities, but Fed rate cuts may boost returns (BBG)

• Goldman Sachs's Kostin says US stock rally set to extend as small caps and lagging sectors play catch-up (BBG)

• China's stock rally may delay stimulus, PBOC weighs risks after 2015 market crash (BBG)

• Gold soars to record high of US$3,600 amid US rate cut expectations, debt/fiscal concerns (FT)

STOCKS

• OpenAI lifts cash burn projections through 2029 to $115bn, or $80bn higher than its previous forecast (RT)

• Databricks confirms new $100bn valuation on $4bn ARR (TC)

• Google faces new antitrust lawsuit from PubMatic, seeks billions over ad tech monopoly (BBG)

• Tesla's market share hit an eight-year low amid competitive pressures (RT)

• Klarna expected to price at the top end or above, driven by strong investor demand ahead of Tuesday IPO (BBG)

• StubHub targets $9.2bn valuation in US IPO after tariff uncertainty delays (RT)

• BYD expands in Europe with new models, showrooms as it faces price war in China home market (BBG)

TARIFFS

• US softens stance toward India after trade tensions, Trump cites "special relationship" (BBG)

• US-EU trade truce at risk of unravelling as Trump set to expand 50% steel and aluminium tariffs to cover hundreds of additional products (WSJ)

• US proposes annual chip export approvals for Samsung, SK Hynix, replacing Biden-era waivers (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Top Fed chair candidate Hassett questions US central bank's independence, warns of credibility risks (BBG)

GEOPOLITICS

• Japanese PM resigns after election losses, US trade deal in place, future uncertain (RT)

• Trump hints at second phase of Russia sanctions over Ukraine war (RT)

• US government shutdown looms as Republicans and Democrats clash over funding strategies (POL)

• French PM faces confidence vote, minority government likely to fall over budget cuts (CNBC)

ECONOMY

• China August export growth slowed to weakest pace since start of year (CBS)

• Japan's GDP grows for fifth straight quarter (BBG)

• Eurozone investor morale plummets to lowest since April as economic and fiscal worries resurface (RT)

ASX TODAY

• ANZ launches business simplification changes with ~3,500 employees to depart by September, expects second half restructuring charge of ~$560m (ANZ)

• Genesis Minerals receives approval for stage 1 mining proposal and mine closure plan at Tower Hill (TWR)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Gold: Another incredible move for gold prices overnight, up 1.38% to US$3,635/oz. Though gold miners are a little fatigued, with most names up 20-40% since August. Despite prices setting fresh all-time highs almost every day, lots of gold names tend to open higher and fade early gains. Nevertheless, they'll be printing cash at these levels. The Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) ticked 1.3% higher overnight, pushing past 2011 highs to record levels.

• More chop: Markets are just chopping around, with the ASX 200 wedged between the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Lots of clashing drivers as noted above, expect more dicey movement.

BROKER MOVES

• A2 Milk downgraded to Neutral from Buy but target up to NZ$10.55 from NZ$9.95 (UBS)

• Boss Energy upgraded to Neutral from Sell but target cut to $2.00 from $3.50 (UBS)

• Monadelphous Group upgraded to Positive from Neutral; target is $23.30 (E&P)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 9 Sep: Bluescope Steel (BSL) – $0.30, CSL (CSL) – $2.485, Ive Group (IGL) – $0.085, Motorcycle Holdings (MTO) – $0.05, News Corporation (NWS) – $0.108, Perseus Mining (PRU) – $0.05, Regis Healthcare (REG) – $0.081, Spark New Zealand (SPK) – $0.11, Wagners Holding Company (WGN) – $0.032

• Wed 10 Sep: Adairs (ADH) – $0.04, Brambles (BXB) – $0.32, CUE Energy Resources (CUE) – $0.005, EVT (EVT) – $0.22, Echelon Resources (ECH) – $0.006, Glennon Small Companies (GC1) – $0.02, Idp Education (IEL) – $0.05, Kip Mcgrath Education Centres (KME) – $0.005, LGI (LGI) – $0.013, Medibank Private (MPL) – $0.102, Naos Ex-50 Opportunities Company (NAC) – $0.015, Naos Small Cap Opportunities Company (NSC) – $0.013, Perpetual Equity Investment Company (PIC) – $0.04, Regis Resources (RRL) – $0.05, Summerset Group Holdings (SNZ) – $0.087

• Thu 11 Sep: Air New Zealand (AIZ) – $0.01, Austin Engineering (ANG) – $0.009, Bhagwan Marine (BWN) – $0.005, Breville Group (BRG) – $0.19, Comms Group (CCG) – $0.001, Cti Logistics (CLX) – $0.055, Joyce Corporation (JYC) – $0.17, Kogan.com (KGN) – $0.07, Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS) – $0.77, NZME (NZM) – $0.027, Navigator Global Investments (NGI) – $0.047, Pepper Money (PPM) – $0.064, Perpetual (PPT) – $0.54, Westgold Resources (WGX) – $0.03, XRF Scientific (XRF) – $0.045

• Fri 12 Sep: Ariadne Australia (ARA) – $0.005, CAR Group (CAR) – $0.415, Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY) – $0.032, Experience Co (EXP) – $0.003, G8 Education (GEM) – $0.02, Wisetech Global (WTC) – $0.119

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Bell Financial Group (BFG), Magellan Financial (MFG)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 10:30 am: Australia Consumer Confidence (Sep)

• 11:30 am: Australia Business Confidence (Aug)

• 12:00 am: US Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision