Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slips, small cap names like Qoria and Life360 surge, lithium stocks rally

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 21 points lower, down -0.24%. 

In a nutshell:

• Markets slightly lower in a relatively quiet session

• Small cap names like Qoria, Life360 and Catapult rallied strongly, while Energy stocks dipped on lower oil prices

• Lithium and uranium stocks both higher, catalyst unclear

• Carl is currently traveling, Kerry is looking after the Wrap

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

ASX 200 lower, closed off worst levels (Source: Market Index)

Markets

• ASX 200 finished lower but off worst levels (-0.24% vs. session low of -0.50%)

• Relatively uneventful session, market continues to chop amid the seasonally weak month of September, China's trade data was a little soft

• Tech stocks looking very strong, with Wisetech (+1.9%) and Xero (+1.3%) lifting the index higher

• Small caps surging, with plenty of risk-oriented names like Qoria (+9.5%), Life360 (+6.1%) and Catapult (+4.6%) rallying strongly

• Energy stocks unsurprisingly weak after oil prices slipped 1.8% last Friday to US$65.7 a barrel. The weakness follows an OPEC+ agreement to raise output at ~137k barrels/day in October

• Lithium stocks broadly higher, with Pilbara Minerals (+3.7%) trading at the highest level since December 2024. Chinese lithium carbonate futures rallied as much as 2.7% today, currently up 0.8% to 74,740 yuan a tonne

• Overall, markets are choppy. Recent market weakness lacks a definitive driver, though likely attributed to seasonality, the spike in long-dated yields, and a natural pullback following a strong rally. However, yields have begun cooling in response to weaker-than-expected US jobs data. While recent earnings season suggests corporates are in good shape. Bottom line is that markets are a bit dicey right now, we'll have to see where the dust settles.

Economy

China's trade surplus was US$102.3 billion in August, up from $98.2 billion in the previous month and above market expectations of US$99.2 billion.

• Export growth fell short of forecasts, decelerating to 4.4% year-on-year vs. 7.2% a month ago and market expectations of 5.0%

• The higher trade surplus largely reflects a imports falling at a faster pace than exports

• Exports to the US fell 33% while shipments to the EU and Africa rose 10% and 26% respectively

Latest news

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +49.5% 4D Medical (4DX) – Agreements to deploy health software

• +7.2% Tuas (TUA) – ASX 200 sector inclusion

• +6.1% Life360 (360) – No news, small caps rally

• +5.2% Droneshield (DRO) – No news, small caps rally

• Lithium sector move: Argosy (+11%), Global Lithium (+11.4%), Liontown (+4.3%), Pilbara Minerals (+3.7%), Patriot Battery Metals (+3.7%)

• Uranium sector move: Lotus (+8.1%), Aura Energy (+7.1%), Boss Energy (+6.0%), Elevate Uranium (+5.0%), Terra Uranium (+4.8%), Bannerman Energy (+4.6%)

Trading lower

• -14.7% Mayne Pharma (MYX) – Responds to media report regarding SA Premier comments about takeover

• -4.1% Super Retail Group (SUL) – No news, likely pullback after recent run

• -3.6% QBE Insurance (QBE) – Insurance stocks selling off on bond yield move

• Energy sector move: Woodside (-2.7%), Beach Energy (-1.6%), Karoon Energy (-1.2%), Santos (-1.1%)

Broker notes

Aussie Broadband (ABB)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.90

Australian Clinical Labs (ACL)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.90

Australian Finance Group (AFG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.86

AGL Energy (AGL)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.68

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $29.50

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $29.30

Amotiv (AOV)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $11.66

ARB Corporation (ARB)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $44.90

Abacus Storage King (ASK)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.50

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $10.50

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $46.50

Boab Metals (BML)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.40

Bannerman Energy (BMN)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $4.70

Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $6.00

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.75

Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE)

• Retained at speculative buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.30

Breville Group (BRG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $39.20

Bravura Solutions (BVS)

• Downgraded to neutral from unknown at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.03

BWP Trust (BWP)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.00

CAR Group (CAR)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $42.55

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $110.00

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $143.70

Codan (CDA)

• Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $27.15 from $17.00

CSL (CSL)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $291.00

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $258.00

Dicker Data (DDR)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.45

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $10.30

Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.30

Data3 (DTL)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.15

Emeco Holdings (EHL)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.40

EROAD (ERD)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.70

FINEOS Corporation Holdings PLC (FCL)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.48

Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.55

Golden Horse Minerals (GHM)

• Initiated at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.81

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $40.00

GQG Partners Inc. (GQG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.63

HUB24 (HUB)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $103.30

Integral Diagnostics (IDX)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.40

IDP Education (IEL)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.00

Imdex (IMD)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.50

Judo Capital Holdings (JDO)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.90

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.00

Lotus Resources (LOT)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.26 from $0.35

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.35 from $7.65

• Initiated at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $14.50

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.60

Medibank Private (MPL)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.05

Macquarie Group (MQG)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $200.00

National Australia Bank (NAB)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $31.50

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.50

NIB Holdings (NHF)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $8.90

National Storage REIT (NSR)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.80

NEXTDC (NXT)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $20.10

Orica (ORI)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $22.71 from $21.48

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $24.76 from $21.70

Pro Medicus (PME)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $350.00

Perpetual (PPT)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $22.85

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $26.20

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.60

Sims (SGM)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $12.50 from $13.00

Stockland (SGP)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.90

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $22.10

Temple & Webster Group (TPW)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $31.30 from $17.60

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $29.75

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $27.00

Xero (XRO)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $235.00

Scans