Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to slip, S&P 500 fades early gains + Gold prices hit another fresh all-time high

ASX 200 futures are down 15pts (-0.16%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• US stocks struggled to hold on to early gains, potentially driven lower by the weaker-than-expected jobs data

• US bond yields have slipped to the lowest level since April as markets begin to price in more near-term rate cuts

• Gold prices hit yet another record high, Chinese lithium stocks surged on Friday

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 faded early gains to finish lower (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mostly lower but off worst levels

• S&P 500 posted its fourth weekly gain in the past five, Nasdaq snapped a three week losing streak 

• US weekly recap: Nasdaq (+1.14%), Russell 2000 (+1.04%), S&P 500 (+0.33%), Dow (-0.32%)

• Today’s big story – August NFP print was weaker-than-expected, while June was marked down, Fed fund futures now show a ~14% likelihood of a 50 bp cut in September, with ~70 bps of cuts priced for 2025

• Weak jobs print drove a sharp downward move in yields, with the US 10-year down 8 bps (now down almost 20 bps in the last three sessions) to a five-month low

• Resignation of Japanese PM expected to exacerbate pressure on longer-term JGBs, weaken yen (BBG)

• Oil prices dip as OPEC+ agrees to increase production again in October. expected to approve adding ~137K barrels a month (BBG)

STOCKS

• Broadcom shares surge 9% on earnings beat, assisting OpenAI to develop its own AI chip, CEO upbeat on AI revenue forecast for 2026, now the 7th largest S&P 500 company (BBG)

• Lululemon shares tumble 18% on earnings miss, lowers fiscal-year outlook due to US underperformance and higher tariff rates (WSJ)

• Apple's annual sales in India reached nearly $9bn, driven by strong iPhone demand (BBG)

• Anthropic to stop selling AI services to groups majority owned by Chinese entities such as ByteDance, Tencent and Alibaba (FT)

• Starbucks China operations valued at up to $bn, with core earnings projected at $500m (RT)

TARIFFS

• President Trump signs executive order for a trade deal with Japan, featuring  baseline 15% tariff along with sector-specific tariffs for sectors including autos/parts and aerospace products (BBG) 

• Japan may face higher tariffs if it doesn't fund Trump's investment recommendations under a $550bn initiative (BBG)

• Japan commits to $7bn of annual energy purchases from US, exploring Alaska LNG off-take agreement (RT)

• White House decision to expand steel and aluminium tariffs leading European companies to halt exports to US, could unravel recent US-EU trade truce (WSJ)

• Trump says chip tariffs will be imposed shortly, confirms they won't apply to companies promising to invest in US (BBG)

• South Korea assessing US-Japan trade deal's impact on its autos as it awaits own auto tariff cut (RT)

• Mexico to impose tariffs on countries it has no trade deals with, including China (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Chicago Fed President Goolsbee uncertain about rate cut at September meeting due to inflation concerns (RT)

• NY Fed's Williams says it will "become appropriate" to cut rates "over time" (BBG)

ECONOMY

• US nonfarm payrolls printed 22,000 vs. 77,000 consensus, June reading revised down from 14,000 gain to 13,000 loss and the lowest since Dec-20 (BBG)

• China's export growth likely slowed in August on weaker US shipments and cycling high comparables (RT)

• Japan nominal wage growth rises to seven-month high, household spending growth weak (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 rebalance was announced after market close on Friday, effective prior to open on 22-Sep, may have driven some abnormal moves:

  • Additions: Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI), DroneShield (DRO), Ebos Group (EBO), Greatland Resources (GGP), GQG Partners (GQG), IperionX (IPX), Perenti (PRN), Superloop (SLC), Tuas (TUA)

  • Deletions: Amotiv (AOV), Credit Corp Group (CCP), Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6), Lifestyle Communities (LIC), Macquarie Technology Group (MAQ), Nufarm (NUF), Nuix (NXL), PolyNovo (PNV), Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ)

• Perpetual near deal to sell its wealth-management platform to AZ Next Generation Advisory for more than $500m (AFR)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Gold: Another massive move for gold overnight, with CFDs up 1.1% to US$3,592/oz. This drove the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) up 2.7%. Expect a solid session for local gold names.

• Lithium: Interesting to see lots of Chinese lithium miners like Ganfeng (+10.0%) hit limit up on Friday. Though no major moves for prices, with Chinese lithium carbonate futures up 1.3% to 74,260 yuan a tonne (down from mid-August peak of 90,100). Daily chart for names like Liontown, Pilbara Minerals looking relatively constructive.

• Yield-sensitive sectors: US 2-and-10 year yields now at the lowest level since April, excluding those brief post-Liberation day lows, it's the lowest since October. Yield-sensitive sectors like Real Estate (+0.98%) was the best performing sector on Wall Street.

BROKER MOVES

We're still waiting on broker data this morning.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 8 Sep: AUB Group (AUB) – $0.66, Australian Finance Group (AFG) – $0.053, Blackwall (BWF) – $0.005, Cash Converters International (CCV) – $0.01, Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ) – $0.195, Super Retail Group (SUL) – $0.64

• Tue 9 Sep: Bluescope Steel (BSL) – $0.30, CSL (CSL) – $2.485, Ive Group (IGL) – $0.085, Motorcycle Holdings (MTO) – $0.05, News Corporation (NWS) – $0.108, Perseus Mining (PRU) – $0.05, Regis Healthcare (REG) – $0.081, Spark New Zealand (SPK) – $0.11, Wagners Holding Company (WGN) – $0.032

• Wed 10 Sep: Adairs (ADH) – $0.04, Brambles (BXB) – $0.32, CUE Energy Resources (CUE) – $0.005, EVT (EVT) – $0.22, Echelon Resources (ECH) – $0.006, Glennon Small Companies (GC1) – $0.02, Idp Education (IEL) – $0.05, Kip Mcgrath Education Centres (KME) – $0.005, LGI (LGI) – $0.013, Medibank Private (MPL) – $0.102, Naos Ex-50 Opportunities Company (NAC) – $0.015, Naos Small Cap Opportunities Company (NSC) – $0.013, Perpetual Equity Investment Company (PIC) – $0.04, Regis Resources (RRL) – $0.05, Summerset Group Holdings (SNZ) – $0.087

• Thu 11 Sep: Air New Zealand (AIZ) – $0.01, Austin Engineering (ANG) – $0.009, Bhagwan Marine (BWN) – $0.005, Breville Group (BRG) – $0.19, Comms Group (CCG) – $0.001, Cti Logistics (CLX) – $0.055, Joyce Corporation (JYC) – $0.17, Kogan.com (KGN) – $0.07, Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS) – $0.77, NZME (NZM) – $0.027, Navigator Global Investments (NGI) – $0.047, Pepper Money (PPM) – $0.064, Perpetual (PPT) – $0.54, Westgold Resources (WGX) – $0.03, XRF Scientific (XRF) – $0.045

• Fri 12 Sep: Ariadne Australia (ARA) – $0.005, CAR Group (CAR) – $0.415, Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY) – $0.032, Experience Co (EXP) – $0.003, G8 Education (GEM) – $0.02, Wisetech Global (WTC) – $0.119

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 1:00 pm: China Balance of Trade (Aug)