Evening Wrap: ASX 200 falters as dividend deluge hits Wesfarmers, Woolworths, lithium tanks but gold still shines

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 27.1 points lower, down 0.30%.

The ASX 200 ended 30-odd points down, sure, but plenty of that was as a result of major stocks like Wesfarmers (WES) (-2.9%) and Woolworths (WOW) (-3.1%) going ex-dividend. Still, with roughly two stocks down for each up – it wasn't exactly a resounding vote of confidence in Aussie shares today! 👎

Fortunately, despite that rather dodgy market breadth, where the big points in the index are won and lost – in the big banks and resources – there were several solid performances. I note here 3 of the Big 4 banks gained close to 1 percent (Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) (+0.9%) was the best), and BHP Group (BHP) (+0.4%) and Rio Tinto (RIO) (+0.4%) both put in steadying performances.

There were some bright sparks, though, in Gold (XGD) (+0.4%), which continues its winning ways, as well as many critical minerals stocks – well apart from lithium, that is. Nope, lithium stocks had a terrible day...😭

To make sense of all the above, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P/ASX 200, Lithium Carbonate and Uranium in today's ChartWatch.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 27.1 points lower at 8,900.6, 0.31% from its session high and just 0.11% from its low. It wasn’t pretty in the market breadth stakes today, as across the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by a nasty 98 to 180 ⚠️.

Another dour day’s trade on the ASX – but probably as good as we were going to get given the lack of leads from the US overnight (closed for a public holiday). But, dividends likely played a major role in the 30-odd points shed from the benchmark ASX 200.

Looking at the “apparent” worst performing sectors today, in Consumer Discretionary (-1.9%), I note that sector major Wesfarmers (WES) (-2.9%) went ex-dividend $1.11 fully franked – or give or take half of its decline on a grossed up basis, and Domino’s Pizza Enterprises (DMP) (-0.8%) went ex-dividend $0.215 unfranked – so technically it actually showed a positive total return on the day.

It was the same in Consumer Staples (XSJ) (-1.7%), the second worst sector, as Woolworths (WOW) (-3.1%) and Endeavour (EDV) (-2.9%) also both went ex-div ($0.45 and $0.063, respectively, both fully franked) – but there were dividends in major sector constituents littered across the entire exchange today.

And it will continue to be the case for the next couple of weeks, so we can expect the local bourse to look a bit “soggy” on first past for a while yet...

Even accounting for dividends, the market breadth suggests it wasn’t exactly a confident session for Aussie stocks, and without a steadying performance from the index-heavyweights in Financials (XFJ) (+0.4%), Resources (XJR) (+0.0%), and another robust day for Gold (+0.4%) – it may well have gotten a little messy there.

Bright spots? There were a few… Collins Food (CKF) (+7.0%) gained after it flagged as strong start to FY26 at its AGM today, it also reaffirmed profit growth in the “low to mid-teens” percent for FY26.

Gold stocks continued to shine, with continuation gains from Perseus Mining (PRU (+2.2%), Resolute Mining (RSG) (+3.6%), and Ramelius Resources (RMS) (+2.7%) in the mid-to-bigs, and several smalls that have been Featured in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends List for many months, including Pantoro Gold (PNR) (+3.9%), Dateline Resources (DTR) (+13%), and Falcon Metals (FAL) (+10%).

To be fair, DTR is a bit of a crossover with rare earths / critical metals, which also mostly had a strong day today. I note here sector leader Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (+0.4%), as well as smalls WA1 Resources (WA1) (+1.3%), and Chalice Mining (CHN) (+1.3%). LYC has been in the ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends List just about daily since July, while interestingly WA1 has been in there just a couple of times, and even more interestingly – CHN made its first appearance just this morning.

Not-so-bright spots? Lithium had a tough day – IGO (IGO) (-3.0%), Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (-4.1%), and Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) (-3.0%) – were all lower, as the benchmark lithium carbonate futures contract logged its eighth straight daily decline on GFEX today. The contract peaked at RMB 90,100 on 18 August and closed today 19.4% lower at RMB 72,620. I have full technical analysis for you in ChartWatch below…📉

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Nasdaq Composite Index chart (click here for full size image)

US markets were closed Monday for the Labor Day Holiday, check yesterday's Evening Wrap for the most current Comp analysis.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)

A little tap and go on the short term uptrend ribbon. A nothing candle, though. Not a surprise in terms of lack of US leads, and there are some dividends in there.

Dividends will make the next couple of weeks interesting with respect to trying to right the present price action (falling peaks and falling troughs) as well as not closing below the short term uptrend ribbon.

But it’s a bull market. So, there should be plenty of demand around to soak up any modest supply that might be active in the system – there are always those who think it’s a good time to sell!

If the supply grows to be “more than modest” – then that’s another matter. We’ll just have to keep an eye on the candles and volume for that.

No change to the broader analysis here. Short and long term trends remain intact for now. There are some signs of pesky supply-side activities, but not enough to impact present risk settings – which for me – remain FRP.

Lithium Carbonate Futures (Benchmark month, back-adjusted) GFEX

Needs to do something good, fast...🕰️ (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered uranium was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 25-Aug.

In that update, I noted lithium bulls were yet to get the “candle they wanted” at the all-important confluence of the short and long term trend ribbons… Thus demonstrating the critical transition of those ribbons from zones of excess supply to zones of excess demand… i.e., my trigger to call the start of a new bull market…

Alas, lithium bulls, so far – it’s not yet meant to be.

The zoomed in chart above shows the ribbons did put up some fight on 22, 25, 26-Aug, but the upward pointing shadow on 27-Aug (the fifth candle from the right) put pay to that. The 28-aug candle probed into the ribbons, and did offer a glimmer of hope with it’s downward pointing shadow – i.e., there was some forceful demand (above average volume) that soaked up the supply that session.

But the last three subsequent candles paint a damning picture – the supply-side is back in control of the price here.

The pullback from the 90100 peak is just too severe and just too consistent – too one way – for my liking. It smacks of a motivated supply side, bulldozing into anything that resembles demand-side engagement.

And for that matter – where did the demand-side go anyway? 🤔

Well, generally above average volume though most of the pullback suggests they’re still in the system – although in smaller numbers and substantially lesser motivation that the initial run up – simply that they’re getting hit by more motivated supply. The price action tells us that.

It feels like reality has set back in here – as it was before the rally – a market dominated by supply. But I ask, did the reality really change?

I have warned in the past that if the rally was mainly being driven by speculative fervour and not proper positional demand-side participation – then it would likely be unsustainable. With today’s candle closing below the bottom of the long term trend ribbon… that scenario has all but played out.

I fear that the close below the long term trend ribbon puts lithium on a slippery slope back towards 67040-140, and then possibly a protracted – bump along the bottom range trading period that could see it build a better base from which to make a proper bull market challenge.

Uranium Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

A turn for the better...↗️ (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered uranium was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 25-Aug.

In that update, I noted that it had “gradually hauled itself off the canvas” and that as a result I was “happy to entertain the bull case here” as a result.

Good news for uranium bulls, the price and the canvas continue to part company – in a good way!

Importantly:

• A trough / point of demand (74.45) has formed – this helps solidify the likelihood that the long term uptrend ribbon is again acting as a zone of dynamic demand.

• The price action is rising peaks and rising troughs – signalling an environment of supply removal and demand reinforcement respectively.

• The price action is steepening (increasing demand-side motivation and control).

What we’d like to see:

• Short term trend ribbon transition from its current amber state to green / uptrend, and then to act as a zone of dynamic demand

• A strong test of 79.45 with very little pullback from there if there is one

• Further evidence the long term trend ribbon is transitioning from neutral / equilibrium to up / demand-side control

If I had to give the uranium chart a score out of 10, with 0 being total supply-side control and 10 total demand-side control, it’s a 5.5. Maybe a 6 if I’m generous – but order of magnitude – that’s what we’re dealing with here.

But it’s a whole lot better than the probably 3.5 back around the start of August when it was below the long term trend ribbon and nudging dangerously close to the key 70.20-70.30 demand zone.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Tuesday

• 19:00 EUR Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Flash estimate August (+2.2% p.a. forecast vs +2.3% p.a. in July)

Wednesday

• 00:00 USA ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) August (48.9 forecast vs 48.0 in July)

• 11:30 AUS Gross Domestic Product (GDP) June Quarter (+0.5% q/q vs +0.2% q/q in March)

• 18:00 AUS Speech by RBA Governor Michelle Bullock

Thursday

• 00:00 USA JOLTS Job Openings July (7.24 million forecast vs 7.44 million in June)

• 22:15 USA ADP Non-Farm Employment Change August (+71,000 forecast vs +104,000 in July)

Friday

• 00:00 USA ISM Services PMI August (50.5 forecast vs 50.1 in July)

• 22:30 USA Non Farm Payrolls August

  • Employment Change: +74,000 forecast vs +73,000 in July

  • Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.3% m/m in July

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.3% forecast vs 4.2% in July

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +25.3% DUG Technology (DUG) – DUG signs multi-year SaaS and HPCaaS letter of award, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +22.2% Invictus Energy (IVZ) – National Project Status Granted for Cabora Bassa.

• +16.9% Cettire (CTT) – Change of Director's Interest Notice, (J. Gidney, on market purchase $15k).

• +15.4% Felix Gold (FXG) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +15.2% LTR Pharma (LTP) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +13.6% Aeris Resources (AIS) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +13.4% West Wits Mining (WWI) – WWI - Investor Presentation and Options Prospectus, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +13.0% Dateline Resources (DTR) – No news since 01-Sep $25M Institutional Cap Raise Boosts Dateline Funds to $35M, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +12.8% Omega Oil & Gas (OMA) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +10.5% Falcon Metals (FAL) – Change in substantial holding (Jupiter Asset Management increase), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.3% Polynovo (PNV) – U.S. Medicare Reimbursement Proposal.

• +10.0% Nanoveu (NVU) – NVU Edge-AI Chip Achieves Landmark Drone Energy Efficiency, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -9.6% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) - No news, repelled perfectly from long term downtrend ribbon! 🔎📉

• -9.4% Dorsavi (DVL) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -9.3% Gateway Mining (GML) - No news since 01-Sep Gateway Appoints New Chief Executive Officer, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -8.7% Caprice Resources (CRS) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -8.2% Lion Rock Minerals (LRM) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -7.7% Waratah Minerals (WTM) - 2025 Half Year Financial Statements.

• -6.9% Novonix (NVX) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -6.7% Decidr Ai Industries (DAI) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -6.6% Austin Engineering (ANG) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.7% Peninsula Energy (PEN) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.5% Kaili Resources (KLR) - No news, today’s move is consistent with recent volatility.

Broker Moves

29Metals (29M)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.30

Aussie Broadband (ABB)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.00

AGL Energy (AGL)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.68

Ai-Media Technologies (AIM)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.80

Aeris Resources (AIS)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.31

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $72.20

Amcor Plc (AMC)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $18.46

Austal (ASB)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.00 from $6.75

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.95 from $7.05

AUB Group (AUB)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $37.00

Bapcor (BAP)

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $3.90 from $3.70

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.50

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.10

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $42.50

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $46.50

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $2.00

CAR Group (CAR)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $43.00

Chalice Mining (CHN)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.90

Collins Foods (CKF)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $10.13

Capricorn Metals (CMM)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $11.00

Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.25

Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $12.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $12.50

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $12.00

CSL (CSL)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $291.00

Centaurus Metals (CTM)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.55

Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.11

Core Lithium (CXO)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.11

Catalyst Metals (CYL)

• Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $11.50 from $11.20

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $8.75 from $7.90

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $8.82 from $6.75

DGL Group (DGL)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $0.47

Delta Lithium (DLI)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.17

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.40

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.40

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.00 from $3.80

Dexus (DXS)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $8.60 from $8.84

Deep Yellow (DYL)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.80

Emerald Resources NL (EMR)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.65

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $8.10

Frontier Digital Ventures (FDV)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.58 from $0.63

Fenix Resources (FEX)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.65 from $0.40

FireFly Metals (FFM)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.60

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $20.00

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $19.90 from $19.40

Greatland Resources (GGP)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $10.00

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.00

Global Lithium Resources (GL1)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.20

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.95

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $41.50

Gold Road Resources (GOR)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.37

GPT Group (GPT)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.00

Hastings Technology Metals (HAS)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.28

HighCom (HCL)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.40 from $0.35

Income Asset Management Group (IAM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.08

IDP Education (IEL)

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $6.30 from $4.15

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $5.25

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $6.00

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.40 from $6.05

IPH (IPH)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.55

James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $39.00

Lotus Resources (LOT)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.35 from $0.38

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.36

Liontown Resources (LTR)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.70

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $17.50

Meteoric Resources NL (MEI)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.25

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $40.00

Medibank Private (MPL)

• Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $4.60 from $4.65

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $5.40 from $4.80

Macquarie Group (MQG)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $216.00

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $115.00

Nickel Industries (NIC)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.80

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $20.00

Nufarm (NUF)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $2.35 from $2.60

NRW Holdings (NWH)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.05

Orica (ORI)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $23.00

Predictive Discovery (PDI)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.45

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $7.45

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.25

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.30 from $2.00

Pro Medicus (PME)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $350.00

Peoplein (PPE)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.00 from $1.05

Perseus Mining (PRU)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.75

PEXA Group (PXA)

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $16.87 from $16.30

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $121.00

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $121.00

Resimac Group (RMC)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.50 from $1.00

ResMed Inc. (RMD)

• Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $47.25 from $46.00

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $298.00

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.70

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.10

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.90 from $4.60

Resolute Mining (RSG)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.80

South32 (S32)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.95

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.60

Steadfast Group (SDF)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.74

SiteMinder (SDR)

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $8.10 from $4.90

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $13.00

Stockland (SGP)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.90

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $6.10 from $5.55

Superloop (SLC)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.90

Stanmore Resources (SMR)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $2.20

Santos (STO)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.88

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $25.00

Turaco Gold (TCG)

• Initiated at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.80

Transurban Group (TCL)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $13.88

The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.60

Telstra Group (TLS)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.95

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.68

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.65

Vicinity Centres (VCX)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $2.42 from $2.38

Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.80 from $3.30

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.10 from $3.65

West African Resources (WAF)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.40

Wildcat Resources (WC8)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.30

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $27.00

Wesfarmers (WES)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $70.70

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $6.50

Xero (XRO)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $235.00

Scans