Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to slip, US markets closed + Gold, Graincorp and Collins Food in focus

ASX 200 futures are down 8pts (-0.09%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• US market closed for Labour Day, please note that all US-related data refers to last Friday's session

• European markets generally higher, with the Stoxx 600 bouncing after falling 2% over the last five sessions

• Gold and silver prices continued to push higher, with gold eyeing the key US$3,500 level while silver cracked US$40 for the first time since October 2011

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 daily chart (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

Note: US market was closed overnight for Labour Day. All US-related data in the above table refer to last Friday’s session.

• With the US market closed – we’ll observe the next best alternative, European markets

• Pan-European Stoxx 600 bounced 0.23% after falling in four of the last five sessions, FTSE up 0.1%, DAX up 0.57%, CAC up 0.05%

• S&P 500 futures currently up 0.15%, Nasdaq futures up 0.17%

• Stoxx Aerospace and Defence Index rallied more than 2% after the UK government announced Norway’s US$13.5bn order for British-made warships, its largest warship deal on record

• Deutsche Bank has rejoined the Euro Stoxx 50, seven years after being cast out of the Index (BBG)

• European stocks set for year-end gains, JPMorgan says “the time to buy is approaching”, citing recent recovery in Chinese equities and potential for Eurozone equities to outperform the US over the next 1-2 months (BBG)

• US stocks can rise by another 20% by the end of 2026, driven by AI euphoria, says Evercore (BBG)

• Hedge funds bet on stronger yuan, citing by China policy support and US rate cuts (BBG)

• Australia’s second largest pension fund cuts US treasuries bet on rising US risks (BBG)

COMMODITIES

• Massive overnight session for precious metals

• Gold CFDs marked a record close, up 0.85% to US$3,476/oz

• Silver prices up 2.5%, pushing above the US$40/oz level for the first time since October 2011

• Platinum, Palladium both up around 2.7%, bouncing towards recent highs

• Brent crude up 1.0% to US$68, staying in recent US$65-70 range, with focus on geopolitical risks (BBG)

TARIFFS

• US representative says trade talks continue despite court ruling on tariffs (RT)

• Trump's policy shift shakes India-US alliance, pushing India to reconsider China strategy (NYT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• ECB's Lagarde warns losing Fed independence poses serious danger to US and global economies (BBG)

• ECB's Lagarde says France's situation not requiring IMF intervention, but Eurozone government risks "worrying" (RT)

ECONOMY

• China’s private manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5 in August from 49.5 in July and above analyst expectations of 49.7, with net orders picking up but input prices rising at the steepest pace since November 2024 (RT)

• UK manufacturing PMI weakened for the first time in five months, down to 47 in August amid weak demand, global trade tariffs and rising costs (RT)

• Asian manufacturing splits, Indonesia and Thailand surge while South Korea and Japan cool from tariffs (BBG)

• China home sales slump continues in August, prices decline despite stimulus measures (BBG)

• UK house prices dip in August amid affordability challenges, market headwinds persist (BBG)

ASX TODAY

Note: No overnight ETF table as most of these ETFs are US-listed

• ANZ finalising plans to cut up to 5,000 jobs from retail division, part of CEO Nuno Matos’s broader restructure (CB)

• Australia is expected its fourth-largest wheat harvest on record, with crop forecasts dramatically upgraded following heavier-than-expected rainfall across major grain bets (BBG)

• Collins Foods reports total company sales up 6.7% year-on-year in the first 18 weeks of FY26, FY26 guidance of low-to-mid teens NPAT growth reaffirmed (CKF)

• Platinum Asset Management advised that a large client plans to redeem ~$580m from some Platinum Trust Funds (PTM)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Gold, silver: Both commodities looking very strong, with gold pushing all-time highs after trading sideways since April and silver breaking out to multi-year highs.

• Graincorp: Unclear if above wheat harvest news will drive any upside for Graincorp. The article notes that wheat is expected to reach 33.8 million tons in the upcoming harvest, 10% higher than the previous estimate in June.

• Collins Foods: CKF experienced a massive 30% rally between 24-26 June, after its FY25 NPAT beat consensus expectations by 15%. This was largely driven by better-than-feared earnings in Europe and a turnaround in Australia markets. Today's trading update highlights further sales momentum (vs. UBS ests of 4.7% revenue growth for FY26), though NPAT guidance reaffirmed.

BROKER MOVES

Broker data is still pending this morning.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 2 Sep: Apiam Animal Health (AHX) – $0.01, Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ) – $0.03, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN) – $0.33, Codan Ltd (CDA) – $0.16, Domino's (DMP) – $0.215, Endeavour Group (EDV) – $0.063, EQT Holdings (EQT) – $0.56, Iluka Resources (ILU) – $0.02, Lynch Group Holdings (LGL) – $0.09, MA Financial Group (MAF) – $0.06, Northern Star Resources (NST) – $0.30, Peter Warren Automotive Holdings (PWR) – $0.04, Praemium Ltd (PPS) – $0.013, Prime Financial Group (PFG) – $0.009, Ramsay Health Care (RHC) – $0.40, Santos Ltd (STO) – $0.209, Sequoia Financial Group (SEQ) – $0.02, Shaver Shop Group (SSG) – $0.055, Sigma Healthcare (SIG) – $0.013, Sonic Healthcare (SHL) – $0.63, Southern Cross Media Group (SXL) – $0.04, Tribeca Global Natural Resources (TGF) – $0.05, Universal Store Holdings (UNI) – $0.165, Wesfarmers Ltd (WES) – $1.11, Whitehaven Coal (WHC) – $0.06, Woolworths Group (WOW) – $0.45, Worley Ltd (WOR) – $0.25

• Wed 3 Sep: Australian Ethical Investment (AEF) – $0.09, Downer Edi (DOW) – $0.141, Ebos Group Ltd (EBO) – $0.492, Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN) – $0.13, FENIX Resources (FEX) – $0.01, Hitech Group Australia (HIT) – $0.05, Humm Group (HUM) – $0.007, Integrated Research (IRI) – $0.02, Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY) – $0.131, Monadelphous Group (MND) – $0.39, Netwealth Group (NWL) – $0.21, Newmont Corporation (NEM) – $0.264, Origin Energy (ORG) – $0.30, Pro Medicus (PME) – $0.30, Seek Ltd (SEK) – $0.22

• Thu 4 Sep: Acumentis Group (ACU) – $0.002, Adrad Holdings (AHL) – $0.021, Argo Global Listed Infrastructure (ALI) – $0.055, Atlas Pearls (ATP) – $0.014, Aussie Broadband (ABB) – $0.024, Beacon Lighting Group (BLX) – $0.039, Big River Industries (BRI) – $0.02, Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV) – $0.05, Coles Group (COL) – $0.32, Eagers Automotive (APE) – $0.24, Generation Development Group (GDG) – $0.01, Globe International (GLB) – $0.10, Ironbark Capital (IBC) – $0.013, Karoon Energy (KAR) – $0.024, Laserbond (LBL) – $0.008, Meridian Energy (MEZ) – $0.128, Microequities Asset Management Group (MAM) – $0.02, Schaffer Corporation (SFC) – $0.45, Servcorp (SRV) – $0.14, Sky Network Television (SKT) – $0.122, Symal Group (SYL) – $0.059, TPG Telecom (TPG) – $0.09, Viva Energy Group (VEA) – $0.028, Vitura Health (VIT) – $0.002, Wotso (WOT) – $0.013

• Fri 5 Sep: Adrad Holdings (AHL) – $0.021, Argo Global Infrastructure (ALI) – $0.055, Aussie Broadband (ABB) – $0.024, Coles Group (COL) – $0.32, Microequities Asset Mgmt (MAM) – $0.02, Objective Corp (OCL) – $0.13, Pacific Current Group (PAC) – $0.28, Peet (PPC) – $0.05, Vitura Health (VIT) – $0.002, Viva Energy (VEA) – $0.028

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: National Storage REIT (NSR), Reckon (RKN)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: Collins Foods (CKF)

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 7:00 pm: Eurozone Inflation (Aug)

• 12:00 am: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)